Monday May 14th, 2012

Sam Evans:When MLB Reports first wrote about the Rockies/Orioles trade that sent Rockies’ pitcher’s Matt Lindstrom and Jason Hammel to Baltimore in exchange for Jeremy Guthrie, the Orioles seemed like early candidates to come out ahead in this trade. It’s still too early to tell, but because of Hammel’s hot start, the Orioles look like they got a bargain deal. Hammel has been so impressive because of his new pitch and his superb strikeout-to-walk ratios. The Orioles are currently on top of the A.L. East with a 22-13 record, and they owe a lot of the credit for their success to Jason Hammel. Still, there are multiple reasons why they can’t expect Hammel to keep this up.

Coming up in the Tampa Bay Devil Rays system, Jason Hammel was considered a fairly decent pitching prospect. He stands six feet and six inches tall, and weighs roughly 215 pounds. However, when Hammel reached the majors in 2006, just four years since being drafted out of high school, he struggled mightily. In 2008, Hammel’s last year with the Rays, he had a 5.25 FIP. Eventually, the Rays decided that their younger pitching prospects deserved a spot in their rotation more than Hammel. As a result, Hammel was traded before the 2009 season to the Rockies for Aneury Rodriguez. In Colorado, Hammel improved as a pitcher, but he was never considered above-average.

Last year, Hammel had a 4.76 ERA and a 4.97 K/9 in twenty-seven starts for the Rockies. According to fangraphs, he was worth 1.0 WAR. This year, in six starts, Hammel has a 2.09 ERA and a 8.84 K/9. He has been worth 1.3 WAR.  Hammel has credited his success to having a more repeatable delivery and his new pitch, a two-seam fastball. This new pitch might help Hammel have another league-average season as a starter.

I hate to break it to Orioles fans, but there is a very slim chance Hammel can continue to pitch at this level. Even though he is currently sporting a 2.76 xFIP, Hammel’s other numbers and his previous success suggest that he is not a great bet to pitch like a #1 starter for much longer. Take Hammel’s ground ball percentage, for instance. In 2012, Hammel has a 61.0 GB%. Previously, his career high GB% was 46.9% in 2008. Hammel’s new pitch could be part of the reason for his newly found groundball mentality, but it’s almost impossible that one pitch could have made that much of a difference in only six starts.

Other than his high ground ball rates, Hammel has had much different line drive and home run per fastball percentages than before in his career. Hammel’s 13.0 LD% in 2012 does not line up with his career LD% of 20.3. As for his HR/FB percentages, Hammel has a 7.7% which compared to his career HR/FB% of 10.5, is another statistics showing Hammel’s kept the ball on the ground more this year.

Jason Hammel was slated to start for the Orioles on Thursday, but he was scratched due to a sore knee.  O’s Manager Buck Showalter was playing Hammel’s injury safe, which is a good idea if the Orioles expect a veteran pitcher to pitch for them down the stretch. Luckily, Hammel’s knee feels better and he will take the hill Monday against the Yankees. Hammel allowed two earned runs in six innings his last time against the Yankees so he will look to continue his success against the Bronx Bombers.

Jason Hammel’s ZiPS projections for the rest of the year foresee him posting a 4.53 ERA, and a strikeout rate of 6.39. While I think Hammel might be a tad more effective, those seem like pretty fair projections for a twenty-nine year old pitcher who has never pitched like he has in his first six starts. However, there is always a chance that Hammel has finally become the pitcher that the Devil Rays always thought he had the potential to be. One thing that the Orioles ballclub has lacked the past few years is consistency from their starting pitchers. If Hammel can be even just an average starting pitcher for the rest of 2012, Baltimore should be thrilled that they traded for him.

***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Sam Evans.  We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers.  You can also follow Sam on Twitter. (@RJA206)***

Please e-mail us at: mlbeports@me.com with any questions and feedback.  You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.  To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.