Tuesday April 24th, 2012

Rob Bland:  Since he burst onto the scene as a 23-year-old rookie in 2007, Tim Lincecum has ranked 6^th in fWAR.  Boasting a fastball that sat around 94 mph, and plus changeup, curveball and slider, Lincecum won back to back National League Cy Young Awards in 2008 and 2009 with the San Francisco Giants.  In his first four full seasons, Lincecum threw 881 2/3 innings.  Listed on baseball-reference.com at a generous 5’11” and 175 lbs, Lincecum’s delivery is a little bit on the herky-jerky side.  How he has been able to withstand such punishment is a bit of a mystery, as his wiry body hurls towards the plate in a violent action that result in a 94 mph fastball.

2012 has not been kind to Lincecum so far.  Now, I am not one to worry about small sample sizes, as baseball is a sport of random fluctuation in statistics.  Albert Pujols does not have a home run as I write this, more than 15 games into the season.  Chase Headley is currently 2^nd in fWAR in all of baseball.  The LA Dodgers are already 8 games ahead of the San Diego Padres.  The Kansas City Royals are in an 11 game losing streak.  The season can change on a dime, and we are only 10% of the way through this season.  Lincecum’s story, to me, is a bit of a different story.  His fastball is averaging below 91 mph.  His sinker has less arm side tail; 5 inches in 2012 compared to over 7 inches in 2009.  Tim’s curveball and slider don’t have as much depth as they once did, also.  A good changeup usually has about 8-10 mph difference off of the fastball, which is where he was in 2009, 93 mph to 84 mph.  In 2012, his changeup is still 84 mph, but the biggest problem for Lincecum has been that he has lost velocity off his fastball.  He is sitting under 91 mph, so that changeup is not nearly as effective.

In his last start against the New York Mets on April 23, Lincecum went 5 innings, striking out 8 and walking 5.  He gave up 4 hits and only 1 earned run.  Judging by this strike zone plot by @brooksbaseball, he missed a lot of pitches arm side, or up and in to a right-handed batter.  In his starts this year, he seems to be laboring.  While his motion has never been considered supremely fluid, this year he seems to be forcing the issue in trying to command his stuff.  All this while his fastball did not touch 92 mph at all during the game.

Lincecum has a BABIP against of .421, which will absolutely regress, but will he be able to return to the form of his past self?  His ground ball rate of 45% is just a tick below his career mark, and his K rate and walk rate are right on par for his career.  His strand rate is 56%, way below league average.  This will regress to the mean and therefore his numbers will return to normal, right?  Maybe.  The fact is that Lincecum’s decline in velocity has produced some awfully hard hit balls.  He is giving up a ton of line drives, which is why so many balls have found the gaps against him.

Lincecum throws his fastball and sinker more often, while his reliance on his changeup is increasing as well.  With the narrowing margin of velocity between fastball and changeup, this seems counterproductive and he will continue to get hit hard.

While Lincecum doesn’t seem to switching in philosophies to a more pitch to contact style, he is getting hit harder while racking up the strikeouts.  What does this really mean for Lincecum going forward?  Well, for starters he has to alter his approach to hitters.  His changeup is not nearly as effective with a slower fastball, so changing his patterns will be a necessity.  We’re only 4 starts into his season, so his velocity may jump, as often is the case after the first month of the season.  But here is my biggest concern: has his violent delivery finally caught up to him after 1038 big league innings?  I am no biomechanical expert. But when a man of that frame throws that hard for so long, there must be a breaking point.  Could spring training of 2012 have been Timmy’s breaking point? We will be watching over his next few starts if he will alter his approach, or if he continues to get hit around the park.

***Today’s feature was prepared by Rob Bland, MLB reports Baseball Writer.  We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers.  You can also follow Blandy on Twitter***

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