Tuesday March 20th, 2012

Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst – MLB reports): We saved the best for last in our sixth and final installment to prepare for your fantasy drafts. The Al East is by far the most talented and exciting division in Major League Baseball. At times there were fourth place teams, such as the Blue Jays and Rays, that would most certainly finish in first place in other divisions. However, what makes the AL East most fantasy-relevant is the changing of the tides and cycle of talent. Just as the A-Rod’s, Ortiz’s, Jeter’s, and Crawford’s are aging and not to playing up to their price or draft pick, the entire division, from top to bottom, has young talent that appear primed to outperform their projected draft value.

Instead of your run of the mill position-by-position rankings, I identify players who fall into the following three categories: value picks, buyer beware, and up-and-coming. The traditional rankings often do a disservice and give owners too close-minded of an approach, particularly in the ROTO format. An owner cannot have a clear-cut strategy and ranking system, as one must adapt to the circumstances on draft day. Remember that you are often building a team for five categories, and you cannot predict which categories you will need to target to offset weaknesses as the draft progresses. Therefore, the key to success is to understand which player’s are over and undervalued, by looking at determinants such as performance trends, offseason movement, and skill development. We are all aware of the fantasy studs, but the way to build a winning roster is to identify players who provide sneaky good value.

VALUE PICKS

Daniel Bard’s already a popular name due to his light’s out pitching in the Boston Pen. His future is as a starter, but we can’t expect much more than 150 innings in the first year of the transition. However, his 197 career innings, a great parameter for a full season, produced a 2.88 ERA and 213 strikeouts. Although nothing is guaranteed, this perfectly captures his potential as a starter. I would target him this year (for keeper leagues) because he will most likely be an ideal number 4 or 5 starter in a 12-team league, but has number two potential down the road.

Chris Davis, who has largely disappointed as an elite prospect, now has the perfect opportunity to succeed with the lowly Baltimore Orioles. Despite his struggles, he did mash 22 home runs in 21 games in 2009 for the rangers, and is still young at age 26. It’s almost like the Starlin Castro’s and Desmond Jennings for us to think players need to produce in the early 20’s, and we are quick to write a player off after a few marginal years. Davis has yet to hit prime and could surprise owners with 20 home runs and 80 RBIs for at almost no cost. Furthermore, with now one pressuring him for playing time in Baltimore, with everyday at-bats he’s already useful in a platoon type of role against right-handed pitching. Davis has certainly proved he’s not the second coming of Jason Giambi (on steroids), he has the potential to produce like non-juicing, 2008 Jason Giambi.

Sean Rodriguez was undervalued and an asset in many leagues in 2011, all while putting up a miserable stat line of .223/8/36 and 11 steals. It’s his SS/2B/3B that allows roster flexibility and the ability for your team to take advantage of either the split heavy Gaby Sanchez types (.901 OPS v LH pitching in 2011) or the elite setup men (Sergio Romo) producing ace-like innings, but just not contributing to the save category.  The thing to remember is that Rodriguez is still only 26 years old and has always been highly regarded. With that said, this is a season that will probably make or break his career, and if it’s a “make”, 15 home runs and 15 steals is attractive at either the SS or 2B position.

Travis Snider has probably pissed off at least 4 owners per league at that this point in his career. He debuted in 2008 as a 20-year-old and appeared to be the next big fantasy name. However, he spent more time in Manchester, NH and Las Vegas, NV, two cities which might be more in common than you would have expected at first glance (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manchester,_New_Hampshire), than he has in Toronto with the big league club. However, Snider continues to be a tease because we have seen his power, and just as his average dips even lower, he suddenly starts stealing bases, he is still only 24 years old and is absolutely raking this spring. I expect he will earn consistent at-bats, and if the outfield situation gets too crowded, he could be acquired and given an everyday chance by another team. The bottom line is that Snider’s stock will never get lower and perhaps just maybe it took him to the old age of 24 to realize his .270/20/80/10 potential.

Brian Matusz is another guy whose stock can’t get any lower after posting a 1-9 record with a 10.69 ERA in 12 starts in 2011. This is not a misprint. As a result, no one will probably even consider drafting him. Still, he is only 25 years old and has had prior major league success, as well as dominated all throughout the minor leagues. His 2012 spring training stats have been more than encouraging, and while I don’t see him being the fantasy ace that he was once projected, and I am willing to bet he was pitching hurt last year and can still provide fantasy value.

Edwin Encarnacion hasn’t emerged as the fantasy stud he appeared to be developing into five years ago. However, his still only 29 years old and is certainly an above average slugger, posting a .272/17/55 and 8 steal sstat line in 2011 and will get at bats between 1B/3b/DH in 2012. This type of production is especially value at a thin 3B position.

BUYER BEWARE

Jacoby Ellsbury was always a good fantasy option due to his speed, but his 32-home run performance in 2011 made him an elite option. However, we cannot expect him to maintain a .230 ISO, which was a huge spike from his career rate of .152 In other words, his power surge was an aberration; perhaps a fluke that will in time be considered similar to Joe Mauer’s 2009 season. Ellsbury it not built to be a power hitter and only has 20 home runs total in his three prior seasons. He is also an injury risk and will be come at a top-five price in 2012 that he will have difficulty justifying

Carl Crawford’s name recognition and opportunity in Boston will still lead many owners to completely disregard 2011. However, he is on the wrong side of thirty (not encouraging for a speedster), and I don’t see him able to run wild on the base paths in the same way as Ellsbury.  Furthermore, a wrist injury concerns me and the Red Sox can afford to bat him in the bottom third of the lineup, which has a bigger impact on a player’s value than most think. For a guy going in the third or fourth round or perhaps $30 auction dollars, a lot of things have to the right way for Crawford, so to speak, for him to produce this type of value.

Mark Teixeira, don’t get me wrong, is a great option at 1B, but clearly does not have the ability to any longer hit for average (.292 to .256 to .248 last three years). He will still provide elite power and run production, but will demand a price that contributes to 4 categories, and not three. Tex is still a great option, but one that is frequently overpaid in fantasy drafts.

Desmond Jennings will apparently bat leadoff in 2012 after a .259/10/25 and 20-stolen base rookie campaign in 63 games. He was immediately on fire after his promotion, but ultimately came back to earth in September. Jennings has always had a high ceiling, but is not yet a 30/30 player that he convinced many he can be in 2011. Throughout the minors he has never hit for great average or power, and is really only elite in the stolen base category. He is certainly a promising option, but I think that his immediate success has boosted his value at a price that his career minor league track suggests is a little lofty.

Why can’t you be more like your brother, B.J. Upton? The truth is, he is a lot like Justin, except for that one category: batting average. Unfortunately, BJ is one of the dreaded category killers, in the mold of a Mark Reynolds. The power and production (23/81) and speed (36 steals) make Upton so intriguing. However his successive .241, .237, and .243 batting averages are simply hard to live with. Even just a .260-.270 average would make him substantially more valuable. All in all, since owners are quick to look over the impact of his batting average, BJ comes at a price where people expect him to produce value in par with his brother Justin. How can you let your little brother out shine you that much… tisk tisk.

UP-AND-COMING

Multiply Brett Lawrie’s one-quarter of 2011 season by four and he finishes with 36 home runs, 100 RBIs, and 28 stolen bases. However, unlike Jennings, Lawrie’s minor league success indicates that he was not playing over his head. In 69 AAA games in 2011, he produced a stat line of.353/18/64 and 13 stolen bases in just 69 games. He is already the real deal at 22 years of age. Perhaps there will be some sophomore struggles, but Lawrie is a future top-ten fantasy player.

Matt Moore is the pitching version of Brett Lawrie. Although lacking the regular season pedigree of Lawrie, it was the 2011 postseason that Moore flashed the talent that makes him a consensus future ace. His minor league numbers in 2011 were absurd (1.92 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 210/46 K:B ratio). While his is still a few years from him best seasons, he could emerge as the Ray’s best option this upcoming season.

Henderson Alvarez is a product of baseball’s best minor league system that has slowly and wisely been developed over the last five seasons. With a plethora of minor league experience, and yet only 22 years of age, Alvarez has potential to be a very attractive option in 2012. He could approach double-digit win totals and provide a decent enough strike out rate and ERA/WHP numbers to be useful in most leagues. Again, his youth also makes him an almost safe keeper pick given his relative anonymity at this point.

Former Yale Bull Dog Ryan Lavarnway has proved throughout the minors (and even a brief major league stint) to have the ability to produce great power and production at the dreaded catcher position. He should have a great opportunity in 2012 and will benefit from the productive and deep Boston lineup.

Desmond Jennings, who I label as “buyer beware”, is still an attractive fantasy talent and has a bright future head of him. Definitely up-and-coming, but is not a five category stud.

***Today’s feature was prepared by our Fantasy Baseball Analyst, Peter Stein.  We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers.  You can also follow Peter on Twitter (@peterWstein).***

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