Saturday February 25th, 2012

 

Jonathan Hacohen:  Posted every Weekend: Your top baseball questions from the past week are answered. E-mail all questions to mlbreports@gmail.com, message us on Twitter and post on our Facebook Wall!

Let’s get to your top questions of the week:

Q:  What kind of numbers are you expecting Yu Darvish to produce in his first season in the majors?  Daniel

MLB reports: I have answered this one at different times, but my opinion tends to fluctuate. It is a difficult question to answer, as he has never pitched in North America. There is a definite adjustment period, as the Japanese/North American games differ. Overall though, popular opinion is that a top Japanese hurler will tend to do his best at start of MLB career and start the decline after year three. Given his age, make-up and stuff, I see great things from Darvish. The keys to me are two words: Maddux and Ryan. Yu has the luxury of working with one of the best (if not THE best) pitching coaches in the game (Mike Maddux), special assistant Greg Maddux and team President, Nolan Ryan. Between those three individuals, there is pitching smarts to the highest degree. For that reason alone, I will say that we will see a big year from Darvish. For final numbers, I am seeing the following: 18-7, 2.95 ERA, 1.23 WHIP. High expectations, I know. But Darvish will have the advantage in his first year as teams don’t have the full book on him yet. Expect to see some big magic this year from the Japanese sensation.

Q: What are your thoughts on the NL East this season? Other than the Phillies, which team is most set up to win the division?  Stephanie

MLB reports: Hello Stephanie! Ask and you shall receive- the question will be answered! To win the division and unseat the Phillies is a big undertaking. Very few teams could do that in baseball, let alone in the NL East alone. The Mets in all probability will be the cellar-dwellers this year. So let’s assume it is a 3-team race to unseat the Phillies. Let’s go one by one to see how they stack:

Marlins: Made some nice moves this year. Ozzie Guillen is in as manager. Jose Reyes is the new shortstop. Mark Buehrle and Carlos Zambrano join the rotation. Heath Bell is the new closer. Incumbents include young sluggers Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton, with Josh Johnson as the ace. The pieces are there, as the Marlins open their new park. But to me, it is too many adjustments in one season. Ozzie has to re-adjust to the NL game and the team has to adjust to him. I think the team can be .500 or better, but no division title is ahead. The team still has too many question marks on offense, back of rotation and bullpen.

Nationals: Even with Bryce Harper, the Nats still need more bats to contend. When Jayson Werth is your offensive leader, that is a sure-sign that trouble is brewing. The team has put together a very nice rotation, although I really need to see a full healthy year of Strasburg and Zimmerman together before giving them a chance. Storen is entrenched as the closer, but the rest of the bullpen has some potential holes. Still young and with a great farm system, will be a force in 3-5 years. But no way this year.

Braves: The only team that I can see giving the Phillies any kind of trouble on the road to the NL East title. A potentially explosive offense led by McCann, Freeman, Heyward, Uggla and Bourn (I don’t trust Chipper to play any reasonable amount of time this year). One of the best bullpens in baseball, led by the power kid duo of Kimbrel and Venters. A rotation filled with a nice mix of vets and kids, including Hudson, Jurrjens, Hanson (if healthy…if), Beachy, Teheran and company. I can see the Braves giving the Phillies a run, but not taking the Braves. Why? Health. Too many question marks. Will Chipper, Hudson, Jurrjens and Hanson hold up? Plus who is the real Dan Uggla- has he regressed to a .200 hitter? Is Jason Heyward a true blossoming superstar who suffered the sophomore jinx? Too many ifs and things that need to go right for the Braves to win the East.

Overall, I would say the Phillies (pending a major blowup) are taking the NL East again in 2012. Even with Howard out to start the year and Utley a perennial question mark for the years to come, they are still the powerhouse of the east. When you have Halladay, Lee and Hamels heading up your rotation and Papelbon closing games, you are going to win a lot of games. The Phillies have the experience and the horses to take it again. Until the Marlins and Nationals continue to graduate prospects and excel, the Phillies will win.

Q: Chances the Tigers sign Oswalt if Turner, Smyly, Oliver, or Below have a bad ST?  Andrew

MLB reports: I am sorry to tell you this Andrew as a fellow Tigers supporter, but it’s not looking good. I don’t see Oswalt moving to Detroit. It would be an excellent move, don’t get me wrong. But with the amount of question marks surrounding Oswalt’s intentions, I don’t see Detroit happening. The team is looking set in its rotation though. Verlander and Fister to head up the rotation, with Porcello and Scherzer following them. I see Scherzer continuing to blossom, while Porcello is very close to becoming a star as well. Fister has shown what he can produce and I see no reason why his success will not continue. So the question lies in #5. Who will be the bottom starter….hmmm. For the first half of the year, we should see either Jacob Turner or Andrew Oliver get the job. My money is on Turner getting the job to start the year, but Oliver likely taking over in May. Call it a gut feel. The Tigers with such a strong lineup and depth can afford to take their time in deciding on a 5th starter. Remember in April, the 5th spot gets skipped over sometimes. If the team ends up with injuries or poor performances, it can always grab a starter at the deadline. For now, the Tigers are done shopping- the team will look in-house for its 5th starter, with Turner as the favored pitcher to take the job.

Q:  With the Sox & Cubs both having new teams and management. Were do you see them this year & who will top over the other?  Tina

MLB reports: Wow, Tina my friend…you ask some very difficult questions! I am sorry to tell you this, but I am looking at the crystal ball right now and it is showing me clear visions. The 2012 season does not look bright for Chicago…I am sorry to say. The White Sox have a date with last place, with only the Astros saving the Cubs from a similar fate. As far as who will the have the better record…this may surprise you, but the White Sox. Let me start with the Cubs. Here is what I like: DeJesus, Castro, LaHair, Soto and Garza. What do I dislike: Soriano, Byrd, Soto, the rest of the patchwork infield, and what looks to be a AAA pitching staff at best. The Cubs are slowly rebuilding and it ain’t pretty. The team is dumping out pricey vets and putting together a prospect base. That takes time…and means taking lumps. Anthony Rizzos don’t grow on trees, and Cubs fans have to be patient to have a collection of players in his calibre. This team will be lucky to win 75 games. Good luck to Dale Sveum. When Dempster is your ace and Marmol is your closer, bad things happen. So yes, the White Sox with a 75 win season will take this “race”. But that doesn’t mean I am a fan of the White Sox are doing. To me, Kenny Williams has gone into some strange rebuilding/not rebuilding mode. He trades Santos and Quentin. Hires Ventura with no experience as the manager. But the team has Konerko, Flowers, Beckham and Ramirez on offense. I like Thornton closing. Floyd, Danks, Humber and Sale should be workable in the rotation. I don’t trust Peavy to play a full season, or even half a season. Adam Dunn though will be the savior. I see a big rebound from him, back to his 30-40 home run ways. So overall, White Sox have the better record- yet the White Sox will finish 5th in the AL Central while the Cubs finish 4th in the NL Central.

Q: I’ve been asking this for several weeks but no ones answered me..how many homers does Manny have at the Coliseum..day vs. night?  Monica

MLB reports: Hello Monica. We talked about this one on Twitter and I promised you some answers. I have the essence of what you are looking for. Maybe not the complete picture, but enough to work with.

Here are Manny’s lifetime numbers in Oakland:

But for an even clearer breakdown of Manny’s batting under different conditions, check out these stats:

As you can see, Manny has hit very well in Oakland over his career. But then in reality, Manny has hit everywhere in every condition well for his career (while he was still hitting). He can hit in day, night, open stadium, dome, grass and turf. The numbers don’t lie. The man is very consistent. Scary consistent. So he hit in 65 games in Oakland over 16 years. 237 at-bats. He hit 12 home runs, with 5 coming alone in 1999. Whether these numbers came in day or night is irrelevant. Overall, Manny has hit well in Oakland and has shown to hit anywhere, anytime. But those numbers were a different Manny. In 1999, Manny was 27-years old. He hit 44 home runs with 165 RBIs. He hit .333, with a .442 OBP and .663 SLG. He was an all-star in 1999 and silver slugger winner. He was also a member of the Indians. Remember that? The Manny I knew in Cleveland was young and blossoming. Then he went to Boston…and life was never the same in Manny-land. Some interesting numbers, for sure. Look at Manny’s numbers in Oakland since 2007. That will give you a better idea of the Manny that has been in Oakland in the last few years. A very small sample, but a better indicator. Manny will be 40 in May. Since coming over the White Sox in 2010, he has not been the same player…and he is coming off a missed season and drug suspension. I would temper expectations. He may not even end up playing for the A’s at all…and if he does, 100 games would be a miracle. Enjoy the stats as I have attached, but most can be thrown out the window. Different era, different player, different times.

Q: When does Romero have breakout year and become household name. Dude is a stud, and this is coming from Yankee fan.   Joseph

MLB reports: Great question Joseph. Answer is…right now. It has already happened. Ricky Romero has landed on the MLB map. He was an MLB All-Star in 2011. Finished 10th in CY Young voting. Romero had a 15-11 record, with a 2.92 ERA and 1.138 WHIP. 178 strikeouts and 80 walks. Romero is the clear Jays ace and people in baseball are noticing! Romero was dating former Miss USA, Rimah Fakih. Both made an appearance on the MLB Fan Cave last year and in many social gatherings. The word is getting out. While he plays in Toronto that may not get  as much U.S. exposure as they deserve, having Jose Bautista on the team has drawn a greater spotlight on his teammates. Romero has broken out and will only get better. For those people who still don’t know his true potential, 2012 will be the year the rest of the baseball world learns his name. I think most baseball fans, even casual ones know of Ricky Romero. This year it will be cemented…guaranteed. Thank you for writing in and a great point you made!

Final Question: Cliff Lee with sore abs. In past years, same problem cost him DL time & lost starts. Should Phillies phans be worried?  Old Man Mack

MLB reports: We can’t let an ATR go by without Old Man Mack…now can we? Cliff Lee. One of my favorite subjects. As many of you know, I call him CY Lee. Look at the man’s numbers since 2008. Are you kidding me???? I see no reason for regression or let-up. He is 33-years old, pitches on a strong Phillies squad with Doc Halladay. Sure he is nursing some sort of strain right now. But its early, spring just started. Even if he does miss time…what would he miss…a week? Two? Month? I would say the loss is minimal at best. I can see Lee starting the year off come April. There is no reason for the Phillies to push him. It’s the end of February. Opening Day is more than a month away. From all indications, Lee will just be brought along slowly this spring. That is fine…that is what you want if you are a Phillies fan. No reason to push. No reason to rush. I am glad this was caught early, rather than allowing Lee to push himself too hard and too soon, causing a setback. Hopefully the Phillies let him rest and come along slowly. All will be good in the world of Cliff Lee.

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Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports:  You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen) Follow @mlbreports