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Monday December 19, 2011

Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst – MLB reports):  As players continue to get moved in the offseason, it is important to take notice before your fantasy draft next March. Trades and free agent signings can have major impact on a player’s value. It is these types of players that you want to target on draft day, with the hope of drafting them at last year’s value. It is this approach that is essential for acquiring surplus value.

After the San Diego Padres lost Heath Bell to free agency, they now turn to the 28-year-old Huston Street to close games in 2012. Last year, with a 3.86 ERA and 29 saves, there were many more desirable closers than Street last season. However, leaving Colorado for San Diego, I expect Street to revert back to his Oakland days and quietly be one of the league’s top 10 closers. The reasons have everything to do with his surroundings.

First and foremost, Street is moving from one of the league’s most hitter friendly ballparks to the pitching friendly confines of PETCO Park. The proof is in the stats. In his three years playing in Colorado, Street had a 4.20 ERA in 94.1 inning at home compared to a 2.59 clip in 73 road innings. What has gotten Street into a lot of trouble throughout his career is the long ball, surrendering 22 home runs in the 167 innings he pitched as a Colorado Rockie. Expect this number to dramatically decrease in San Diego. For perspective of just how big PETCO Park is and how difficult it is to hit a home run, in the 2009 and 2010 seasons, Adrian Gonzalez his just 23 of his 72 home runs at home. Baseball Reference indicates that Coors Field allowed 17% more home runs than the average park in 2011, while PETCO yields a rate 7% less than the average park.

At first glance, coming off a season with a 3.86 ERA and 1.45 HR/9 innings, Huston Street had the worst season of his career and will be undervalued by many. However, his fielding independent numbers show that he is the same pitcher that he has always been. The strikeout rate (23%) was just a little lower than his career clip (25.2%), and he was hurt by a .317 BABIP (.274 career) and an inflated home run per flyball rate (14.5% compared to 8.1% career). His XFIP was a much more respectable 3.14. Lastly, with the low scoring offense in San Diego, Street is likely to have a boatload of save opportunities, even if the team struggles to win 75 games. They are not going to below any teams out, so the majority of the wins will result in save chances. With Mike Adams gone as well, Street should not be susceptible to competition within the organization, especially as I expect the Padres to try to showcase Street as trade bait come July.

Huston Street projection for 2012:  57 IP, 4W , 3L, 36 SV, 58K, 2.81 ERA, 1.06 WHIP

By taking the same approach, Edinson Volquez is a guy to keep an eye on in 2012. He struggled mightily in 2011, finishing 5-7 with a 5.71 ERA while also pitching 87 innings in the minor leagues as a 28-year-old.  However, this is a guy who has had success in the past and still demonstrated the ability to miss bats in 2011.

If used wisely, that is only at home and against favorable matchups; he has potential for great value. His k/9 ratio hovers just below 9 and he is another player who was hurt by the long ball. An astonishingly high home run per flyball rate of 20.7% in 2011 made it impossible for Volquez to have success. However, his career rate is only 12.7 percent and the switch to PETCO Park should assure that Volquez regresses back to the mean in 2012. By no means a guy who should anchor your staff or even start regularly, but he can provide tremendous value as spot starter in 2012. Furthermore, he is the type of player I like to own in the beginning of a season, because if has an impressive April, his trade value will be through the roof given his past success.

Many fantasy players will label Volquez and Street as “has been’s” given the fact that they are both a few years removed from their most successful major league season. However, both players are only 28 years old and were in unfavorable surroundings last season and now move to a pitcher’s most desirable location in San Diego. They will likely fly under the radar, and if they can be had for a price based on their 2011 performance, fantasy owners will surely reap the benefits in 2012.

***Today’s feature was prepared by our Fantasy Baseball Analyst, Peter Stein.  We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers.  You can also follow Peter on Twitter (@peterWstein).***

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