Daily Archives: October 10, 2011
Adam Dunn and Alex Rios: The Future of the ChiSox Sluggers
Monday October 10, 2011
Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst – MLB reports): There were perhaps no two bigger fantasy busts than Alexis Rios and Adam Dunn during the 2011 season. Although nobody was “screwed over” more than White Sox general manager Kenny Williams, many fantasy owners surely had a hard time overcoming the incompetency of these two players.
Although Dunn’s performance was unexpected by many, we have seen this from Alex Rios before. Rios reemerged on the scene in 2010 as one of the rare five category players: .284 avg, 21 HR, 89 RBI, and 34 SB. However, Rios really tailed off at the end of his 2010 season and looked a lot more like the player that the Toronto Blue Jays flat-out released a year prior. His 2011 numbers look eerie similar to 2009:
2009: .247, 17 HR, 63 RBI, 24 SB
2011: .227, 13 HR, 64 RBI, 11 SB
Oddly, 2008 and 2010 were different stories for Rios, as he amassed a total of 9.3 WAR in those two seasons. There is no doubt that Rios suffered from bad luck in 2011. He .237 BAPIP is 70 points below his career average. However, the fact remains that Rios is now on the wrong side of thirty. It is doubtful any team would make the same mistake Williams already has and taken on his salary, so chances are Rios will still be in Chicago. With his large contract and a new manager in town, I think it is safe to assume it will be his position to lose in 2012.
Rios’ inconsistencies throughout his career make him a difficult player to evaluate, but you have to think he will bounce back and be a good buy-low candidate. Whatever you do just do not overpay. His peripheral numbers indicate that his power is still there and that his batting average should improve perhaps to his career .270 range. We also cannot ignore his strong finish, batting .307, 5 HR and 12 RBI in his last 75 at-bats. It has been said that he “over thinks” and struggles with the mental side of the game, but his physical skills are undeniable.
The signs indicate that Rios will bounce back in 2012 for a rebuilding White Sox team. Therefore, target him as a backup or final outfield option for a cheap price. Pay for the player he was in 2011 and hope to get the 2008/2010 Rios in return. With his track record it is simply not safe to pay for him as a .280/20 HR/80 RBI/20 SB guy that he could very well be.
I think you have to take the same approach with the other White Sox enigma, Adam Dunn. Dunn was the model of
consistent for the last 10 years, and he appeared to be in a great position to succeed in Chicago in 2011. However, his strikeout rate increased to a stagger 35.7 percent, and when he did manage to put the ball in play, his .240 BABIP left him with a .159 season average. Historically bad.
Dunn is also aging and was noticeably out of shape last year. Watching him play every day, he simply seemed over matched and had trouble recovering form an early season appendectomy. Dunn has to realize what is at stake here (his career) and hopefully he picked up something from Paul Konerko’s professionalism and approach to the game.
The fact remains that with his contract, Dunn will get the chance to turn things around in 2012. If he has a repeat performance, then the White Sox might be forced to just cut ties and move on. Therefore, 2012 is truly do-or-die for Mr. Dunn. Thus, I expect him to put in the time in the off-season and bounce back next year. It is not to say that Dunn will put up the same numbers as he has in the past, but the home run total could still exceed thirty. U.S. Cellular Field is a notorious hitters park, and Dunn still has the ability to take advantage of its favorable dimensions.
The good news, fantasy owners and White Sox fans, Alex Rios and Adam Dunn cannot be any worse in 2012! The fact is they will both be giving an opportunity to bounce back in 2012 and try to prove the worth of their 14 million dollar per year contracts. Although, they will never come close to doing this, they can provide value for you next year. These are the types of guys that I love to target for cheap on my fantasy teams. Rios has bounced back before, and although his inconsistencies are mind bogglingly frustrating; it is not crazy to expect him to do so again. Bad luck, reflected by BAPIP, played a factor for both of these players. And with Dunn, if he does put in the offseason commitment, his track record is too long and strong to ignore. Therefore, expect both guys to bounce back. Just don’t put your self in the position where you are counting on it.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Fantasy Baseball Analyst, Peter Stein. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Peter on Twitter (@peterWstein).***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter (@MLBreports) and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
2011 MLB Playoffs: Recap for Sunday October 9th and MLB Notes
Monday October 10, 2011
Sam Evans (Intern – MLB reports): There turned out to only be one game on Sunday, nonetheless it was still an exciting, and important game. Let’s get to the Recaps!
Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers: ALCS Game Two
Major League Baseball actually called this game at 2:00 PM CT, more than four hours before the game even started. MLB was obviously trying to the pitchers from a situation similar to Saturday night. While MLB probably had good intentions, this was a very bad decision. According to multiple weather reports, it never rained on Sunday at the Ballpark in Arlington. If the decision makers had just waited a couple more hours we probably would have a game between these two teams on Sunday. Now, because of MLB jumping the gun, these teams have to play four straight days of baseball. As a result, Max Scherzer will take the mound for the Tigers this afternoon against Derek Holland for the Rangers. Game time is 4:19 PM ET, assuming the skies stay clear in Arlington.
St.Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers: NLCS Game One
With all the trash talking leading up to this game, this proved to be a pivotal game for both teams. Neither pitcher was very sharp, but both offenses showed up ready to battle. In the top of the first, Matt Holliday had an RBI single off Brewers starter Zack Greinke to give up the Cardinals an early lead. In the bottom of the first, the Brewers erased the Cardinals’ lead by scoring two runs, courtesy of Ryan Braun‘s 444 foot home run. Both pitchers battled throughout the second and third innings, until in the fourth when David Freese hit a 3-run home run to give the Cards’ a 4-2 lead. Freese is having a tremendous postseason, coming tough in the clutch for St.Louis. In the top of the fifth, Lance Berkman drove in Rafael Furcal to make it 5-2. In the bottom of the fifth, everything went wrong for Jaime Garcia. The inning started off with a Corey Hart single, then a Jerry Hairston double. Next, Ryan Braun jumped on the first pitch and hit a ground rule double to right field. From there, Prince Fielder crushed Garcia’s first pitch, an 87 MPH fastball, to right center field. ESPN’s Home Run Tracker had that bomb traveling at 119.2 MPH. This would make it the hardest hit homer of the season. A lot is going to be made about the Brewers celebrations after every home run they hit, but I really don’t have a problem with it. If the Cardinals don’t like it, then maybe they just shouldn’t give up home runs!
Garcia’s main problem with this huge inning was that he stopped throwing his breaking ball. Out of the 12 pitches he threw, not one was offspeed. Things got worse for the Redbirds when Octavio Dotel came into the game, and gave up a 2-run home run to Yuniesky Betancourt, of all people. The Cardinals scored once more in the 7th when Albert Pujols grounded into a double play, but the big 6th inning was enough for the Brewers. Final score: Brewers 9 Cardinals 6, with Greinke getting the win, Garcia the loss, and John Axford nailing down the save. These two teams will face off for game two tonight, Monday, at 8:05 PM ET. Edwin Jackson will get the start for St.Louis, against Shaun Marcum for Milwaukee.
Editor’s Notes:
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All the talk surrounding Zack Greinke’s comments turned out to be just that, talk. Once the teams took the field yesterday afternoon, the focus centered on the game itself. After getting hit fairly hard yesterday, I do not expect we will hear many more harsh words from Greinke during this series.
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The Tigers are looking very susceptible offensively, especially after the loss of Magglio Ordonez to a broken ankle and Delmon Young to an oblique strain. The Rangers have caught fire at the right time and should be making a second straight trip to the World Series.
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The free agency talk won’t talk, even though we are still in playoff mode. Possible destinations for C.J. Wilson and Prince Fielder have been speculated on for the past few days, as strong or stronger than they have all season. The reality is the focus should be on the games ahead. There will be plenty of time to have these discussions between the end of the playoffs and New Years.
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A story has come out indicating that the Reds are going to star taking offers for their star first baseman, Joey Votto. Expect 29 other teams to submit their bids if this is true.
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Epstein-gate continues to swirl, as the Cubs and supposedly Angels are interested in his services. My advice if Theo was sitting in front of me? Stay put. You are considered a genius in Boston. Move elsewhere and you run the risk of failing to replicate your magic. If that occurs, your lustre will get tarnished. Same advice to Billy Beane. Stay home and keep your legacy. The grass is always greener on the other side.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Intern, Sam Evans. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Sam on Twitter.***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
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