Milwaukee Brewers: Analyzing Yovani Gallardo’s Trade Market

Like us on Facebook here

Tuesday, June.18/2013

Gallardo has been a good pitcher for the Milwaukee Brewers in his Career.  He is 75 - 49 (.605) with a 3.70 ERA.  He is coming off two seasons in a row during 2011 and 2012, where he was north of 200 IP.  So far this campaign, he has lugged 87.2 IP in his NL Leading 15 Starts

Gallardo has been a good pitcher for the Milwaukee Brewers in his Career. He is 75 – 49 (.605) with a 3.70 ERA. He is coming off two seasons in a row during 2011 and 2012, where he was north of 200 IP. So far this campaign, he has lugged 87.2 IP in his NL Leading 15 Starts.  The RHP is in the 4th year of a 5 YR/$30 MIL dollar contract.  He will make $7.75 MIL in 2013, $11.25 MIL in 2014 – and there is a $13 MIL Team Option in 2015 – or a 600K Buyout.  He will make roughly $15 MIL in his contract for the remainder of this year – and the duration of next years salary.

Jake Dal Porto (MLB Reports Writer)

The inevitable fire sale is looming for the last-place Milwaukee Brewers, and among their collection of tradable pieces, Yovani Gallardo will likely be their most sought out asset.

Gallardo has whirled 14 scoreless innings over his past two starts. The Brewers couldn’t be happier because his trade value is gradually increasing after a brutal start to the season. However, Gallardo’s value wasn’t as high as it once was. It will take a few more scoreless innings before he can get back to that point.

Milwaukee might be wise to hold onto him for another year to see if he can bolster his stock. But that approach also entails negative consequences. He ages a year older, and more importantly, there’s always the chance that his stock is further dented.

So, let’s see what Gallardo’s current market is for this year’s trade deadline:

Yovani Gallardo Highlights – Mature Lyrics so Parental Guidance is Advised.

Yovani Gallardo threw 14 scoreless Innings for the week in 2 victories to earn our Award for NL Pitcher of The Month. It hasn't been a banner year for the veteran yet, being 6 - 6, with a 4.41 ERA

Yovani Gallardo threw 14 scoreless Innings for the week in 2 victories to earn our Award for NL Pitcher of The Week. It hasn’t been a banner year for the veteran yet, being 6 – 6, with a 4.41 ERA.

Trade Value

It’s suffice to say that Gallardo’s value has been marginalized in 2013. It’s not just the raw stats–4.41 ERA, 6-6 record–that raise some red flags, but his overall nastiness has eluded him.

Most will characterize Gallardo’s struggles as a byproduct of a less-zippy fastball. Gallardo’s fastball has been less zippy, yes. It’s averaging out at just 91.7 miles per hour, which is a solid step down from his 2012 average of 92.6 MPH.

However, the overall effectiveness of the pitch hasn’t dramatically changed. Opponents are hitting .267 off it, and by comparison, the career average against Gallardo’s fastball is .254. A 13-point increase is something to at least take notice of, but it’s not a huge concern.

Gallardo’s off-speed arsenal isn’t getting pounded around either.

Screen Shot 2013-06-16 at 10.30.27 PM

Again, the numbers aren’t exactly along the lines of Gallardo’s career mark, but it’s fairly close.

I’ll admit, the batting averages don’t paint a perfect picture because Gallardo is striking out nearly two less batters per nine innings than he did in 2013. His stuff hasn’t been as effective.

A lot of that has to do with the fact that batters are swinging and missing at his pitches less frequently. Per FanGraphs, his SwSR%, which measures the amount of pitches a batter swings and misses at, is 6.9 percent in 2013.

Considering that Gallardo is usually categorized as a strikeout pitcher, that falls short of expectations, especially if you consider that he has posted a SwSr% of nine or more three times during his seven-year career.

However, Gallardo’s problems go beyond the slight diminish in his nastiness. The more concerning area is the fact that he is simply not hitting his spots. His seven-year LD% (Line-drive percentage) averages out at 21 percent. In 2013, it’s soared to 29 percent.

Another indicative of Gallardo’s decreased nastiness and incapability to hit his spots is his IP% (In-play percentage) of 70 percent. His career average in that department is 63 percent.

Gallardo’s shaky pitch discipline hasn’t triggered a spike in home runs as it will often do to many pitchers. His HR/9 rate sits at 0.9, and he’s walking 3.1 batters per nine innings. Both figures are right on course with his career marks.

Opposing hitters are simply hitting him harder. That’s causing him to use more pitches, which is then causing him to pitch a career-low 5.8 innings per start. And, of course, his ERA has taken a beaten too.

Hitting spots sounds like an easy problem to fix, but it’s really not. Thus, the Brewers won’t be able to command much in return for the right-hander until he shows some signs of a break through, which could come via a simple mechanical fix, or it could be a much, much longer process.

At this point, Gallardo’s contract is the only thing the Brewers have working for them. He’s signed through 2014 with a team option for 2015, meaning he’s not a three-month rental. This could potentially narrow down the interest in Gallardo, but the quality of the return would be better.

Potential Suitors: San Francisco Giants, Baltimore Orioles, Los Angeles Angels, Cleveland Indians

There are a handful of teams a pitcher away from joining the elite class.

The Baltimore Orioles exemplify that. They are owners of MLB’s sixth-worst ERA and worst HR/9 rate (1.61). We could list all the stats where the Orioles are bottom-feeders, but that would be a pointless exercise. They’re bottom-feeders in practically every major pitching statistic.

Baltimore’s current ace is Chris Tillman, who sports a 3.61 ERA. Miguel Gonzalez has a 3.71 ERA, but the remaining three spots have constantly been in flux.

After compiling a 3.43 ERA last year, Jason Hammel has a 5.24 ERA this year. Top prospect Kevin Gausman posted a 7.66 ERA in his first five major league starts. The 36-year-old Freddy Garcia has a 4.89 ERA nine starts.

Hopefully you’re starting to see the pattern. Once Wei-Yin Chen, who hasn’t pitched since May 12, returns, some stability will be regained. But “some” is really the key word. Adding a proven starting pitcher is almost a requirement if the Orioles plan on playing October baseball for the second consecutive year.

The San Francisco Giants, meanwhile, don’t desperately need a starter. After all, this is one of the more pitching-famous franchises since 2010. But their rotation is starting to collapse.

Inconsistency and an overall lack of effectiveness has plagued the starting unit. Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner have righted that ship with good performances in their recent starts, but they’re only two pieces to the puzzle.

The quartet of Tim Lincecum, Barry Zito, Chad Gaudin and Ryan Vogelsong (injured), however, is generally a mixed bag of results. At the very least, plugging Gallardo into the equation would allow Gaudin to return to the bullpen, a much more comfortable spot. Plus, Gallardo could fill a spot in their 2014 rotation that currently consists of just two starters under contract–Cain and Bumgarner.

The Indians might need more than just one arm to change the outlook of their rotation, which has the 10th-highest ERA in baseball. Justin Masterson (3.52 ERA) has been good, but his battles with inconsistency still exist. After Masterson, Cleveland’s rotation lacks identity.

Praying that Ubaldo Jimenez turns back the clock to 2010 may be a bit too optimistic at this point, and relying on Scott Kazmir to anchor down the back-end of the rotation is also a bit hopeful. So, adding Gallardo would be a major upgrade.

As for the Los Angeles Angels, the decision to add Gallardo ultimately comes down to this: Is Gallardo an upgrade over Joe Blanton, who sports a 5.87 ERA? I think the answer is clear.

Gallardo is part of a Brew Crew Pitching Starting Staff that has really struggled.  Kyle Lohse simply makes too much money - and Gallardo could net a bigger return of prospects back if he were to be traded.  At only 27 Years of Age, he is also 7 years younger than Lohse

Gallardo is part of a Brew Crew Pitching Starting Staff that has really struggled. Milwaukee is already buried by three other teams in the NL Central – so for them to make a playoff push is highly unlikely.  Since Kyle Lohse simply makes too much money – and Gallardo could net a bigger return of prospects back, then he is the pitcher most likely  to be traded. At only 27 Years of Age, he is also 7 years younger than Lohse.

***The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com or their partners***

A big thank you goes out to our Baseball Writer Jake Dal Porto.  Jake is a student from the Bay Area. He has followed MLB for years, and he enjoys writing about the sport. 

He is an assistant editor at Golden Gate Sports, and the editor of Blue Man Hoop. If you need to contact Jake, email him: jakedalporto@gmail.com  or follow him on twitter.

Please e-mail us at: mlbreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox, click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.

Like us on Facebook here

Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs

About these ads

About Jake Dal Porto

Jake Dal Porto is a student from the Bay Area. He has followed Bay Area sports for years, and enjoys writing about the various Bay Area teams. He is an assistant editor at Golden Gate Sports, and the editor of Blue Man Hoop. If you need to contact Jake, email him: jakedalporto@gmail.com

Posted on June 18, 2013, in MLB Player Profiles and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

Comments are closed.

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 19,730 other followers

%d bloggers like this: