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David Ortiz to the Jays or Yankees? Try the Rays or Angels
Monday October 17, 2011
MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen: With the World Series all set to commence on Wednesday (Cardinals and Rangers)- our attention is slowly shifting to the upcoming free agency period. A big name (literally) of discussion has been David Ortiz, or better known in baseball circles as “Big Papi”. The rumor mill is running wild as to where Ortiz will play in 2012. Let’s shed some light on the subject and clear up the confusion.
The soon to be 36-year old Ortiz is coming off one of his finest seasons in recent memory. Papi finished with a steady all-around season: 29 home runs, 96 RBIs, 84 runs, 78/83 BB/K, .309 AVG and .953 OPS. Ortiz was named to his 7th all-star team and finishing up a 5-year, $64.5 million contract. For a player that appeared to be in decline back in 2009, Ortiz has shown the last two seasons that he has some juice left in the tank. But with the Red Sox in shambles, given the departure of long-time manager Terry Francona and soon to be ex-GM Theo Epstein, Ortiz himself has said that Boston has become too much of a soap opera. The question on every baseball fan’s mind: will he stay or will he go?
The Ortiz decision to stay in Boston will largely depend on several factors. Firstly, it is unclear whether the team wishes to retain him or go in a different direction. As an aging team with hitters that could use the rest from playing in the field every day, the Red Sox may not longer wish to commit the DH spot to one exclusive batter. Taking that into account with Papi’s streaks and slumps that past few years and recent comments, may be enough for the Red Sox upper management to wish to move on. But if the team does wish to retain him, or give in to fan pressure to keep Ortiz (which is likely to come given his immense popularity), will Papi himself want to remain in Boston? Only the man could answer that question. To know the answer, one would have to get into the player’s head. Does Otiz get along with his teammates or are there divided fractions? How much did the 2011 collapse take a toll on his morale? When will a new GM come into place and will he be able to have a good relationship with Ortiz? Same issue for a new manager…and you get the idea. There are many variables that put into question whether Ortiz could or would stay in Boston.
In my estimation, Ortiz is on his final contract. He will likely obtain a 2-year contract, with an option for a third. Based on his rich history and legacy in Boston, I think that when push comes to shove- the player will stay. Boston needs Papi; and Papi needs Boston. It would not feel right to see Ortiz in another uniform (check out highlights from his days in Minnesota and you will see what I mean). Major League Baseball also would love to see Ortiz remain in Boston for marketing purposes. With so many vested interests in getting this deal done, I believe it will happen. But what if it does not? What if Papi jumps ship? I see his options as far and few between.
The first option that jumped out was the Yankees. It will not happen. While the Yankees would love to stick it to Boston, they will not likely want another aging DH on their hands after the Jorge Posada fiasco this past season. The Yankees also have Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira and company that need days off the field, A-Rod especially given his failing health. With A-Rod becoming a part-time DH as soon as next year, the Yankees cannot afford to take on Papi at this stage. Plus the team has up-and-coming superstar Jesus Montero that needs playing time and has nothing more to prove in AAA. So the Yankees rate as a no.
The next options for Ortiz? It will only be American League teams as he is only a DH at this stage of his career. The only realistic teams that have the open position and fit are Toronto, Tampa Bay and Anaheim. The Jays are being thrown around many circles as a possible destination. It makes sense for several reasons. Ortiz knows the ballpark well from his AL East days. He gets along well with Jose Bautista and would serve as a great mentor for the Jays young hitters. Toronto was missing production last season from the DH spot and would welcome Papi’s bat. But despite these factors, I don’t see this signing happening. Ortiz will want to play on a contender and fight for another ring. His career is winding down and so are his chances. While Toronto has a strong young nucleus, they are at least 2-3 years aways. As much as this would be a feel-good signing, I would rate is as another no.
Thus the battle for the services of David Ortiz will boil down to the Tampa Bay Rays and Anaheim Angels. Two strong playoff contending teams that desperately need his bat. Tampa Bay should be the favorite, given the familiarity of the AL East and the strong need of the team. The Rays have the lineup spot for Ortiz and should make a big push for him. The Angels have the same need, but not the best fit for position. The team has a logjam in the outfield with Mike Trout likely to be with the big club next year and Kendrys Morales returning to the team from injury. But when there is a will, there is a way. Like many other squads, the Angels would need to do some creative shuffling to make room for Ortiz. Vernon Wells may need to be moved for a bad pitcher’s contract in return (Carlos Zambrano anyone?) Kendrys Morales may not be recovered or Trout may not be ready. The Angels went through a desperate need all year in 2011 for runs and will not want to face the same issue come 2012. Papi could be the perfect short-term solution for the Halos.
The four-horse race to sign David Ortiz will come down to the Red Sox, Jays, Rays and Angels. The Rays are my dark horse favorite and best overall fit. The Jays would love to take him on, it will just depend on the confidence Papi has in the team’s ability to compete. Boston will hang in right till the end and the Angels will need to be aggressive to get him. If we are playing the odds, I would rate Boston as a 70% favorite, followed by Tampa Bay at 20% and the Jays/Angels at 5% each. Once the World Series ends, let the David Ortiz sweepstakes begin!
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports
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Theo Epstein Heads to the Windy City to Lead the Cubs
Thursday October 13, 2011
Rob Bland (Baseball Writer – MLB reports): On October 12, 2011, Theo Epstein, former GM of the Boston Red Sox agreed to a 5 year deal worth more than $15M. With the Chicago Cubs. This all comes as no real surprise to anyone, as it had been speculated since the Cubs fired GM Jim Hendry in August that Epstein was their top target. The real surprise is that Epstein and the Boston Red Sox’s falling out happened so swiftly. Within two weeks of the Red Sox collapse, which has been widely discussed by everyone in baseball circles, manager Terry Francona and the team parted ways, as well as, now, their general manager Theo Epstein.
It has been well-documented that Epstein was able to overcome the “Curse of the Bambino” by employing a bunch of “idiots” in the locker room that went on to win a World Series in 2004. This mentality has been a similar mantra of the Red Sox throughout his tenure. Because they won in 2004, and also in 2007, it was completely acceptable for players to do what they pleased in the locker room. Now that the epic collapse took place, the organization needed a change, and true accountability never took place for the Red Sox.
Epstein is a GM of great stature. He is trusted and many people believe in his abilities. He employs a “Moneyball” type strategy, which is also aided by having a large payroll, something he will also have the ability to create in Chicago. Ownership of the Cubs have not been afraid to spend money, and most of the time have put themselves in unfortunate situations.
Two contracts come to mind when I think of the Cubs. Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Zambrano. Prior to the 2007 season, Soriano inked a contract worth $136M over 8 years. In 2007, Zambrano signed an extension for the 2008-2012 seasons, with a vesting option for 2013 worth $91.5M. Epstein has a lot of work cut out for him with an aging, mediocre core, but finding a suitor for these two players, or finding a way for them to produce and not be distractions in the clubhouse is paramount.
Another major task for him is to figure out what he wants to do with incumbent manager, Mike Quade. Quade was hired as the Cubs’ interim
manager on August 22, 2010, and in October, the interim title was stripped. Quade led the Cubs to a 71-91 record and a 5th place finish in the NL Central, only ahead of the lowly Houston Astros. This record was tied for the 5th worst in all of baseball. When Quade was hired, much to the dismay of Cubs fans, who wanted Ryne Sandberg to take the helm, he was highly regarded as a smart, methodical baseball thinker. Was the year and month enough of a trial, or will Epstein want to bring in his own talent to manage this struggling franchise?
Epstein will also consider bringing in his own front office, using members from his group with the Red Sox. With news breaking that Senior Vice President and Assistant General Manager Ben Cherington will take over as GM in Boston, Epstein will be fighting to bring his favorite guys over with him.
The last thing holding up this deal is compensation for the Red Sox. Since Epstein had one year remaining on his contract with Boston, the Cubs had to ask permission to even speak with him. Epstein had made it known to the organization that he would be leaving after 2012, so the Red Sox allowed talks to run smoothly, as they would have owed him $3M for the season, and a contract bonus of $4M. Cash and/or prospects will easily get the job done.
The deal has not yet been completed due to some of these complications, but should be done by the beginning of next week. Epstein will have a major challenge in Chicago, as they are not even close to competing. Major decisions need to be made, and even with his high level of competency, it will take up to five years for the Cubs to be a major contender in the NL Central.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Rob Bland. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
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Jobless in 2012 – MLB Managers on the Hot Seat from 2011
Saturday September 10, 2011
Rob Bland (Baseball Writer – MLB reports): When a team has a disappointing season, the most likely candidate to lose his job is the manager. So far in the 2011 season, there has already been three managers who have either resigned or been fired. The Oakland Athletics fired Bob Geren on June 9th and replaced him with Bob Melvin. A week and a half later, Edwin Rodriguez resigned from his post as manager of the Florida Marlins. Jack McKeon became the oldest manager since Connie Mack at 80 years old. Yet another week later on June 26th, Jim Riggleman of the Washington Nationals resigned and was replaced by Davey Johnson two days later. With only a few weeks left in the regular season, who are the frontrunners to be replaced after the World Series?
With eight managers being new to their respective teams to start the 2011 season, one would think there can’t be too many jobs to lose. The first criteria I look at in order to predict who will not be returning his club is if the team was expected to contend for the playoffs, and fell short. Another thing I look at is the perception of the clubhouse, ie. if players get along, or if the manager is able to manage egos. Of course, the manager’s ability to create a lineup and manage a bullpen is taken into consideration. Other factors such as injuries and expectations of players are measured as well. The list that follows are my top 3 managers who could be canned after this season.
Mike Quade, Chicago Cubs
It is not oft
en that I would think a first year manager would be fired like this, but there are so many circumstances that make me believe he will be gone. First, there has been grumbling since day one in Chicago that Quade was hired over franchise icon Ryne Sandberg. The Cubs have been packed with talented players such as Carlos Zambrano, Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto, Ryan Dempster and Carlos Marmol. Add in Matt Garza and Starlin Castro, and you would think they could at least come close in the terrible NL Central. They are 22 games behind the streaking Milwaukee Brewers, and 21.5 behind Atlanta for the Wild Card. Their record is 62-81 with a 35-40 record at Wrigley Field.
Bud Black, San Diego Padres
With 2011 being Black’s 5th season with the Padres, a 62-82 record and already 21 games behind Arizona for the NL West title, he could be on the way out. The Padres have yet to reach the postseason under Black, however they were involved in a 1-game playoff with Colorado for the Wild Card title in 2007 that many of us will never forget as one of the most exciting games we have ever witnessed. In 2010, the Padres held a 6.5 game lead over eventual World Series Champs San Francisco Giants on August 25th. After a 10 game losing streak, the Padres were still in contention, and were not officially eliminated from the playoffs until the final day of the regular season with a 90-72 record. Those were the only winnings seasons in Black’s tenure and his time in San Diego may be up.
Ron Gardenhire, Minnesota Twins
Is it really fair to say Gardenhire’s job is in jeopardy? Probably not, but it definitely is possible. Over his 10 year career with the Twins, he has amassed an 861-740 record and they have been in the playoffs 6 times. However, they have only won 6 games, 4 of which were in one series, in Gardenhire’s first season; 2002. The Twins have not won a playoff game since 2004, being swept in 2006, 2009 and 2010 in the American League Division Series. This year, Gardenhire has had to deal with crippling injuries of former AL MVP’s Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer. Statistically, the best hitter has been Michael Cuddyer, hitting .282 with 18 home runs and 64 RBI. The best pitcher has been Scott Baker who is 8-6 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 131 2/3 innings. Francisco Liriano has not been the same as he was before undergoing Tommy John surgery after the 2006 season, and aside from his no-hitter against the White Sox on May 3, he has been downright awful and is now on the 15-day disabled list. When the best players don’t perform, or are hurt, the manager is forced to do the best he can with what he is given. However a 59-84 record may just be the straw that broke the proverbial camel’s back for Gardenhire.
This year, with 3 mid-season changes already, and eight new managers at the beginning of the season, shouldn’t see too much activity. I do believe that with the Cubs’ search for a new general manager under way, Quade’s days are numbered in Chicago. I also believe that Black’s inability to get the always promising Padres to the next level will leave him without a job by November. Gardenhire has not proven to me that he can bring the Twins to the World Series, and that is what the job description entails. Has it ever happened where both Managers of the Year from their respective leagues gets fired the following year? It could happen if Black and Gardenhire are let go.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Rob Bland. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
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Adam Dunn: The Future of the White Sox Slugger
Wednesday August 31, 2011
MLB reports: Not every player can fit onto a particular MLB team. That is a baseball reality. In fact, there are very few, if any players that could produce the same statistics playing for any team. A player’s production is based on many factors, including home park, lineup, adaptability to particular cities and so on. When a team trades for a player or signs a free agent, the hope is that the new player will be able to meet or exceed previous production levels on a new team. Sometimes, the hope is that new environment will revitalize a stagnant player and breath new life into them. In the case of Adam Dunn, the Chicago White Sox signed him to a free agent contract last year. A large deal, 4 years for $56 million dollars. A fair deal in my estimation at the time. The White Sox by signing Dunn were hoping to land an established slugger to fit in the middle of their lineup. What they ended up with was quite different.
Take a look at Adam Dunn’s current production in comparison to his career numbers:
| BA | HR | RBI OBP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season | .163 | 11 | 40 .290 | |
| Career | .244 | 365 | 920 .374 |
To say that Adam Dunn has been anything but a disaster since his arrival in Chicago would be an understatement. Prior to 2011, Dunn’s worst season produced an .819 OPS. That was in 2003, his 2nd full season in the majors that was cut short by injuries. Turn the clock and Adam Dunn sits with a .578 OPS this season with no likelihood of redemption. While some pointed to Dunn playing in a new league for the first time and starting off slow, a turnaround was expected at some point this season. Dunn has actually regressed to the point that he is benched by manager Ozzie Guillen at a frequent rate. A sad state of affairs for one of the game’s previously most consistent sluggers.
For a two-year stretch, from 2003-2008, Adam Dunn was a 40 home runs and 100 walks guy. In his last two seasons, Dunn played in a less than friendly hitters park in Washington and still hit 38 home runs per season. Moving to the White Sox, expectations were that playing in a hitter’s park with a deep lineup would produce possible MVP type numbers for the burly slugger. So what happened? Why the sharp regression?
Part of the issue has been the move to the American League. The adjustment
has not worked for some hitters and we have seen NL hitters in the past that cannot play in the AL for whatever reason. Glenn Davis is one famous example that comes to mind, who moved from Houston to Baltimore and literally fell apart overnight. Dunn also is a full-time DH for the first time in his career. Some hitters never take as well to moving off the field and into a DH role, citing inactivity and removal from the full game experience as distractions from their hitting. Given though Dunn’s perceived weak fielding, at both first base and the outfield, a move to DH should have been a welcome change for him. Yet the move was another factor in his year-long slump.
The main culprit in my estimation is the fit, or lack of in Chicago. Perhaps it is the city, or the ballpark, teammates, media or his relationship with the manager. Whatever the reason, I ultimately believe that Adam Dunn and the White Sox simply do not mesh more than anything else. While a return to the field and/or the National League may help, first and foremost Dunn needs to get out of Chicago and start fresh.
I think of Chone Figgins and his move from the Angels to the Mariners. Despite staying in the same division even, Figgins was never able to meet expectations in Seattle and regressed throughout his time with the Mariners. Had he stayed in Anaheim, the chances are higher that Figgins would have continued playing his game and not transformed into a shell of his former self. Carl Crawford in Boston and Jayson Werthin Washington are players that also signed big-ticket deals and also stayed in their respective divisions, yet faltered in the wake of big contract expectations. But the difference with Crawford and Werth is that they have shown some glimpses of life this season, while Dunn has shown none. I fully expect Crawford at least to be able to make the necessary adjustments and rebound by next season. In Dunn’s case, I do not see that happening without a trade.
Nick Swisher is a situation that I will point to as an example. From the
moment Swisher was traded from the A’s to the White Sox, nothing went right. After suffering through the worst season of his career in Chicago, Swisher was traded to the Yankees for pennies on the dollar and blossomed in New York. The same will likely occur to Dunn. A move to the Yankees is a possibility, for a high-profile team that can afford to take on or part of most of Dunn’s salary. A trade for a bad contract is another one, with the Cubs for Zambrano or Giants for Zito as possibilities. Better yet, a move to the Angels could also be the answer. With Mike Trout ready to join an outfield of Peter Bourjos and Torii Hunter, the Angels may not have room for failed trade acquisition Vernon Wells. The White Sox could plug Wells into their outfield and Angels use Dunn to replace Bobby Abreu as DH. A long shot, but certainly a possibility.
No one can be sure if this season is an outlier or an indication of the beginning of the end for Adam Dunn. Based on his strong body of work until this year, I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that a rebound will occur. The White Sox might wait it out and give Dunn another shot next year. But then GM Kenny Williams has never been the patient type. After moving Swisher very quickly, I expect the White Sox to do the same with Dunn. This would be a classic buy-low situation for another MLB club. Expect many calls on Dunn in the offseason and a new team by 2012. Despite Dunn indications of having retirement thoughts due to his poor season, I cannot see him going down in this manner. Adam Dunn will be back. The only question is where.
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Sunday MLB Insider Report: Our Views on the Latest Baseball News
Sunday August 28, 2011
MLB reports: Here is our weekly look at Major League Baseball and the latest news, together with analysis and opinions:
First our condolences to the Flanagan family, as the baseball world learned of the loss of ex-Orioles and Jays pitcher Mike Flanagan. Mike was a baseball lifer, having played the game and remained active as a coach, broadcaster and executive. The part of the ordeal that makes the story most tragic is how quickly speculation and then reports surfaced that his death was a suicide. In this age of social media, it is difficult to impossible to mask the facts behind a story. When rumors begin that are untrue, it is then often too difficult to bury them when they are later proven untrue. Once a story is put out into the world on the internet, it often remains there in people’s minds, if fact or faction. So when we think of Mike Flanagan, let’s remember him for the star pitcher that he was in the later 1970s and all the contributions he made to the game in all different capacities. Without having walked in his shoes, none of us could ever understand what was in his mind and the factors that led to his unfortunate passing. We cannot change the past. So when remembering Mike Flanagan, let’s remember him for his role in the game and not for the manner in which he passed away. I’m sure the Flanagan family would want it that way.
From a sad story to a literally bizarre tale, Lenny Dykstra is in the news once again. And for all the wrong reasons, again. The former World Series hero for the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies apparently was arrested for soliciting women on Craig’s List for fake jobs and then exposing himself to them. Looking to hire women for roles such as assistants and cleaning women, Nails according to reports has hit a new low. Once heralded as a business genius in business magazines, for his many business ventures including a string of car washes, Dykstra is now bankrupt and at the bottom of the barrel. I had a reader write in that questioned why ex-players like Dykstra and Flanagan pull stunts to get themselves into the news and cannot get away from the limelight. After my jaw dropped and blood boiled, I took some time to think about this comment. Overall, my response is that there is a difference between Flanagan, Dykstra and a publicity hound like Jose Canseco. Mike Flanagan passed in an unfortunate manner, but I think any reasonable person would not associate his death with a publicity stunt. Flanagan was a troubled soul but in no way looking for attention. Rather he was moving away from attention, likely looking for peace. To say that Flanagan was seeking publicity is extremely disrespectful to his legacy and family that was left behind. In the case of Dykstra, if the recent allegations are true, I also do not believe that he was seeking attention. To commit such crude and strange acts indicates that the man is disturbed and in need of professional assistance. Perhaps in some ways it is a cry for help, in other ways he may just have a giant ego and believes that he can do whatever he wants without repercussions. But it is extremely unlikely that Dykstra was hoping his actions would be publicized to the world and bring his name back to the spotlight. In a way it all comes back to Jose Canseco. In his truest form, Canseco only acts in a manner so that he will get his name into the public spotlight. From reality shows, boxing matches, independent baseball games, tell all books etc, Canseco’s singular purpose is to get attention. So while there are many ex-athletes out there in the world, let’s not all be so quick to group them into the Jose Canseco category. Some may have troubles, some may keep clean and we will never hear about them. But just because a story emerges about an ex-MLB player, let’s not be so quick to think that all of them are publicity hounds. Some want the exact opposite and enjoy their private time since their careers have finished.
Don’t look now Texas Rangers fans, but the Angels are hot on the heels of your team. The Rangers’ lead in the AL West is down to a mere 2.0 games with the Angels suddenly on fire. In their last 10 games respectively, the Rangers are 3-7 while the Angels are a mirror opposite 7-3. With the teams set to face-off today against each other, the gap could close even more. It seems that the Angels have caught fire at the right time, while the Rangers have cooled off. The Rangers are still scoring runs at a large clip, as they normally do in August in Arlington. But while the Rangers pitching is starting to fall short, the Angels pitching is on fire. Led by dual aces Jeff Weaver and Dan Haren, the Angels pitching looks unstoppable at this point. The Rangers will be tough to beat, with one of the best offenses in baseball led by Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, Michael Young and Mike Napoli. They also have a very deep end of the bullpen led by closer Neftali Feliz. But as the San Francisco Giants showed last year, strong pitching can beat good hitting to win at all. The Rangers have the bats and the Angels have the arms. While the Angels have some good bats, including Torii Hunter and Mike Trumbo, they are nowhere close to the level of the Rangers. It will be an AL West dogfight right to the end of the season. Baseball fans everywhere look forward to the September AL West showdown.
I read a really good article this week on the Sports Illustrated site. It was a look at the large contract signed by Jered Weaver and
the Angels and analyzing the rationale behind it. The article made many strong points that I wanted to touch upon. While many analysts have argued that Weaver left tens of millions of dollars on the table, such is not always the case. Looking at the worst case scenarios of such a deal, the article brought up the Carlos Zambrano deal in Chicago and Brandon Webb not signing a contract with the Diamondbacks. Zambrano signed at the time a “team friendly” deal which the Cubs are now working very hard to get out of. On the flip side, Brandon Webb did not end up signing a long-term deal in Arizona and ended up getting hurt and costing himself millions. I would throw in as well the failure of Nomar Garciaparra to sign a long-term deal with Boston that ended up costing him millions due to later injuries suffered and likely saving the team in the long run. In the case of starting pitchers, you never know when one will get injured and waiting until free agency could result in injuries and lost wages overall. So while some view Weaver as having lost millions, others could look at it as gained millions and take the sure road to a rich contract and not gambling on what the future could bring. The bottom line is that Weaver is comfortable where he is and being paid handsomely to play the game he loves at home. Both the team and player are happy with the deal and everyone wins as a result. If Weaver gets injured or falters, the player will look as the victor. If Weaver dominates over the next five years, the team will appear as coming ahead. Without looking into a crystal ball, we will say that this was a fair deal for a player not yet eligible for free agency and we will call it a tie. As Chone Figgins in Seattle, Adam Dunn in Chicago and Jeff Weaver also in Seattle can attest, the highest dollar isn’t necessarily the best one for a baseball career. Staying in a productive situation can often best further a baseball career and lead to the most years played and quite often, the most dollars overall earned as a result.
Finally, one of our favorite baseball topics: prospects. From the explosion in exposure of the MLB draft to the countless websites devoted to tracking baseball prospects, baseball fans are hot on the heels of future “stars’ like never before. In addition to the social media available reporting on prospects, teams have pressure to develop and call-up prospects at a quicker pace due to the dollar amounts involved. With top prospects earning bigger bonuses than seen back in the day, executives are feeling the heat to rushing these bonus babies to the majors. So the combination of big bucks and fan pressure is resulting in prospects climbing early to the majors at very young ages. So while Brett Lawrie may appear to be an early success for the Jays, teammate Travis Snider has failed to reach his potential yet and is doing the trek from the minors to the majors and back. Alex Gordon similarly came to the majors with a mountain of expectations and took many years to develop. Colby Rasmus burnt out in St. Louis for many reasons and found his way to Toronto. Matt LaPorta was traded by the Brewers to the Indians in the C.C. Sabathia trade and has failed to live up to Indians’ fans expectations thus far. But on the flip side we see a Paul Goldschmidt come up with the Diamondbacks with little fanfare around the majors and find success. We can look at hit and miss prospects all day, but my point is as follows. Baseball prospects take the longest to develop out of all the major sports. While the NBA and NFL do not have a minor league system per say and the NHL has one minor league level, Major League Baseball has several minor league stops. It is rare to impossible for a baseball prospect to make it to the show without spending time in the minors. While most baseball prospects realistically need 2-4 years in the minors to develop their game, many top prospects are being rushed like never before. I do not see this as a positive in the game and in many cases a hinderance to the development of the players. But with the baseball media machine at full blast and money being thrown at top prospects at record high levels, I cannot see the rushing of top prospects stopping any time soon. But I think we all need to step away for a moment and really think about what is best for these players careers. For every Brett Lawrie, there will be hundreds of failed prospects that will take time to develop. Alex Gordon this year is one of the few lucky ones, that has been able to turn around his career. But it took a position change and many failed attempts to get to this point. Analyzing and watching prospects is one of my guilty habits, I will admit it. I just hope that major league teams will give their top prospects the tools and ability to succeed, rather than set them up for failure. It is a fine line and one that many teams are still learning to walk on.
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Ubaldo Jimenez to the Yankees? Rockies May Move Ace to the Bronx
Saturday July 16, 2011
MLB reports: As an unbelievable as it may seem, there has been talk in baseball circles that the Rockies are taking calls on their ace pitcher, Ubaldo Jimenez. Start after start, game after game last year, Jimenez for the majority of 2010 was as unhittable as they come. Despite coming back down to earth in the 2nd half, Jimenez last year appeared in his first All-Star game and finished 3rd in the NL CY Young voting. He also pitched the very first no-hitter in Rockies history on April 17, 2010. With a young Rockies team that was expected to contend in 2011, the 27-year old Dominican Jimenez was expected to anchor the team. Now sitting with a 45-49 record, 8.5 games out of 1st in the NL West, the Rockies are on the fence as to whether they still have playoff aspirations this year. Further, the team’s brass needs to decide whether Jimenez is a part of those aspirations and future playoff runs. Media outlets have speculated that the Yankees are quietly making a run at Jimenez. There is a strong probability the trade could happen, but in my estimation, the Rockies would be making a colossal error if they do.
There is no denying the strength and ability of Ubaldo Jimenez. As the pitcher has slowly improved every year, especially noting his strong 2009 and 2010 campaigns, the hurler clearly has a world of potential. Taking a look at his numbers, the results speak for themselves:
| Year | W | L | ERA | IP | H | BB | SO | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 0 | 0 | 3.52 | 7.2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1.043 |
| 2007 | 4 | 4 | 4.28 | 82.0 | 70 | 37 | 68 | 1.305 |
| 2008 | 12 | 12 | 3.99 | 198.2 | 182 | 103 | 172 | 1.435 |
| 2009 | 15 | 12 | 3.47 | 218.0 | 183 | 85 | 198 | 1.229 |
| 2010 | 19 | 8 | 2.88 | 221.2 | 164 | 92 | 214 | 1.155 |
| 2011 | 5 | 8 | 4.08 | 110.1 | 101 | 43 | 99 | 1.305 |
| 6 Seasons | 55 | 44 | 3.60 | 838.1 | 705 | 363 | 754 | 1.274 |
| 162 Game Avg. | 14 | 11 | 3.60 | 212 | 178 | 92 | 191 | 1.274 |
With pitching at such a shortage, many baseball analysts are scratching their heads as to how the Rockies could possibly think about trading Jimenez. The San Francisco Giants proved last year that the World Series could be won almost exclusively on the strength of pitching. Tim Lincecum. Matt Cain. Madison Bumgarner. Jonathan Sanchez. The Giants had so many weapons to throw against its opponents every night and good young pitching at the end of day beats good hitting much of the time. The Rockies, ravaged by injuries and inconsistent performances, are unlikely to reach the postseason this year. But in the management of the team, the present and future must be considered. Look at Felix Hernandez on Seattle, Roy Halladay on the Phillies and Lincecum on the Giants. Every team that is trying to build a winner needs a stud pitcher at the top of its rotation. Jimenez is that guy for the Rockies and losing him on the roster will be a hole that will be difficult, to impossible to fill.
So given the positives that Jimenez brings to the table, the issue remains how and why the Rockies could possibly consider moving him. There are a couple of main reasons in my estimation. Part of the equation is the performance of Jimenez this season. While he has been good, Jimenez for the most part has not been great. His record this year is far off from his most recent seasons, despite a strong rebound in his last few starts. Given his inconsistencies in 2011, the Rockies may be getting a little worried and looking to sell high before Jimenez starts to decline and/or injured. But given his strong resume to date, young age and rebound recently, I would like to think the Rockies are more intelligent than that. Players have their ups and downs, at all levels. It happens. Without a larger body of work for reference, it is almost impossible to reason that Jimenez is on his way down. His recent numbers tend to show otherwise. So while Jimenez may not be the same pitcher that we saw in early 2010, he is still the ace of the team.
So why the reports of trade talk with the Yankees? I will give you two words. Cliff Lee. The same Cliff Lee that was all set to be traded last year from the
Mariners to the Yankees in a package including Jesus Montero. The deal was completed to the level that major media outlets were announcing the trade as fact. As the story goes on that one, the Mariners played the Yankees against the Rangers and took a package from Texas built around prospect Justin Smoak at the very last-minute. The Yankees were fuming to the level that they contacted the higher-ups in Seattle to complain about the conduct of their GM, Jack Zduriencik. The fallout was the Rangers making it to the World Series and the Yankees left at the altar without their prize. As a further dagger, Lee in his decision to sign with the Rangers or Yankees this past offseason, ended up going to the Phillies at the last-minute. Again, the mystery team coming at the last second out of the woods and the Yankees were left standing with egg on their face.
Do not underestimate the New York Yankees. They are the strongest and one of the proudest teams in baseball. The Yankees and their fans do not like to be left disappointed in the constant search for top talent. With Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia sitting in their rotation, the Yankees are clearly itching to make a move to bolster their rotation. While names like Jeremy Guthrie, Derek Lowe and Bronson Arroyo being thrown around, it starts to shed some light as to where the Jimenez talk is coming from. This is the Yankees and they do not like shopping at the Ford dealership. This is a team built on Mercedes and BMW’s. The problem is that the top cars, i.e. ace pitchers, are not readily available. After making runs at Felix Hernandez and Francisco Liriano, the Yankees are still in search of a strong #2 to compliment ace CC Sabathia. Considering that Sabathia can opt out of his contract during the coming offseason and possibly leave New York, the pressure is even greater to land a top starting pitcher. From all the names that have been tossed around, the one that makes the most sense is Ubaldo Jimenez.
When Jimenez is on his game, he is as Cliff Lee-like as you can get. Jimenez is a horse that has the potential to pitch a complete game shutout almost every game out. This is the type of numbers that the Yankees are looking for. Rather than waiting to what comes in free agency, the Yankees are trying to hedge their bets and make a run now. Any package for Jimenez will be built around uber-prospect Jesus Montero. Considering his strong bat, Montero could move from catcher to first base to replace the aging Todd Helton. The Rockies still have faith in their own young catcher, Chris Iannetta, who has taken longer to develop than expected. Montero would be great insurance and an almost guaranteed monster bat, in addition to the other prospects that would be headed to Colorado. A win-win for both teams if it happens, considering the bodies that would be moving as part of the trade. But still not quite if you consider the value of Jimenez to the Rockies.
Other teams will sniffing around Jimenez as well. The Red Sox, Indians, Tigers, Angels and Rangers could all be considered in the mix. Jimenez would not come cheap and if the Rockies are smart, they will auction him off to the highest bidder. At the end of the day, this is a trade that the Yankees have to make. With little to no other options on the market, the Yankees have to overpay for Jimenez or risk failing to win a World Series despite the highest payroll in business. The Yankees lost out twice on Cliff Lee and need to do everything in their power to land an equivalent pitcher to their fold. While Ricky Romero or Jered Weaver would be nice acquisitions, realistically neither one will be made available by their respective teams. With Carlos Zambrano overpriced and inconsistent and Johan Santana a question mark for the season, at this point it is Jimenez or bust for the Yankees.
In considering this trade from a Rockies perspective, think how long the organization suffered from a pitching perspective. Despite always having strong hitting, the Rockies as an organization have been challenged to develop and maintain reliable pitching. Now that the Rockies have an ace in place, the team should be focusing on building around Jimenez rather than moving him. If the Rockies build their core of hitters and fail to have a deep and consistent starting rotation, the team will mean little come playoff time. The team will simply fall back into old habits and fail to adapt to the new Major League Baseball. With the steroid era past us, baseball is built around pitching and defense now for the most part. The Rockies, like every other team, needs good young pitching to contend. Jimenez has the potential to give them a high level of pitching for at least the next five years. If the Rockies feel they have a chance to contend during that time, they must hold onto him or risk setting themselves back even further.
Knowing that this is a trade that Yankees must make and the Rockies should pass on, the final question is whether this trade will happen. My heart says no,
but my brain says yes. Despite all the reasons that the Rockies should hold onto Jimenez, it appears in my estimation that the Yankees will make an offer that Colorado cannot refuse. In fighting for World Series titles in New York, all necessary resources have to be acquired at any cost. Considering that the Yankees will include Montero and 2-3 more top prospects, the Rockies will have a hard time saying no. Perhaps the Yankees will include a couple of top pitching prospects in the package that will allow for a smoother transition for Colorado. But the reality is, that while prospects are intriguing and desirable, they are far from a sure thing. For every Derek Jeter that is drafted, developed and becomes a future Hall of Fame player, there are 1000’s of Todd Van Poppel clones that come highly touted and burn out just as quick. Ubaldo Jimenez has the experience and numbers that are proven. While I am always skeptical of pitching, based on injury risk (see Stephen Strasburg), the potential risk in this case by keeping Jimenez is worth the reward of the potential for future playoffs. This will be the one case where I advocate that a team hold onto their starting pitcher rather than cash in for prospects. But it is also the case where there is extreme speculation and rumors and I foresee the trade occurring. The Yankees are the Yankees for a reason. They usually get what they want. They want Ubaldo Jimenez and before July is done, he very well could be in pinstripes.
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Scott Kazmir: Where Will He Land? The Future of Kaz
Sunday, June 19, 2011
MLB reports: Things did not go as planned for Scott Kazmir. A first round pick of the New York Mets (fifteenth overall) in the 2002 draft, Scott Kazmir has gone from can’t miss prospect to baseball outcast. Only twenty-seven years old, Kazmir now sits at home awaiting to find out if he still has a baseball future. The Texas Native was traded to the Tampa Bay Rays during the 2004 season in a package for mediocre starter Victor Zambrano. Considered a steal of a deal at the time for the Rays, Kazmir played in Tampa Bay until the 2009 season when he was moved to the Angels. Despite $14.5 million in guaranteed money still due to him, the Angels saw enough after a poor 2010 season and atrocious start to the 2011 campaign. Now the rumor mill has Kazmir possibly headed back to the Mets, the team that originally gave up on him early, in order to restore his flailing career.
The debate on Kazmir is whether he is suffering from injuries, physical or mental concerns. Kazmir had shoulder and hamstring issues in 2010 and spent time on the disabled list. In 2011, Kazmir lost a great deal of velocity and control, despite reportedly being injury-free. Looking at Kazmir’s numbers in Tampa Bay in 2009 and Anaheim in 2010 and 2011, the trend of decline was becoming obvious. If you remove Kazmir’s six games played in Anaheim after the trade in 2009, we have been viewing a pitcher in a free fall since his twenty-fifth birthday. Now as Kazmir ponders his future, the baseball world is left to wonder what happened and where Kazmir will play next.
I look at Kazmir’s health record and consider his elbow issues of 2007 and 2008. Aside from the 2005 and 2007 seasons, Kazmir has never successfully completed a full season in the majors injury-free. Even though he may not be considered injured today, the number of injuries that he has suffered throughout his career have apparently finally taken a toll. Having suffered elbow and shoulder injuries at such a young age, it is difficult to ascertain if his arm and body will ever fully recover. Based on his poor showing of the last two years, the mental strain of his failed performances have likely compounded the issues further. Wherever he lands in the future, our reports are indicating that we will likely never see the All-Star Kazmir from 2006 and 2008. Even though he is only twenty-seven, the future looks bleak for Scott Kazmir.
Over the coming days we will learn more about the teams interested in signing Scott Kazmir. The two New York teams have jumped to the forefront of the race. Other teams that make sense include the Boston Red Sox, who love their scrap heap former top prospect pitchers, the St. Louis Cardinals and Texas Rangers, who have been linked to Kazmir for some time. Analysts have been speculating for the last two days that the Mets are the top destination. Our projection though is Texas landing Kazmir. Born and raised in Texas, Kazmir would likely prefer a homecoming, combined with playing for the contending Rangers and its top pitching coach, Mike Maddux.
Sometimes a player performing poorly requires a change of scenery for a rebound. Playing in a new city for a new team can reinvigorate some players. But such is not the case for all. Especially with pitchers, we have recently seen some very highly considered hurlers seemingly decline overnight. Dontrelle Willis. Rick Ankiel. Two former top prospects turned horror shows. Is Scott Kazmir next? The chance for rebound is there, but it appears to be slim at best. The Angels, long considered a team highly skilled in developing pitchers, flushed a great deal of money in writing off Kazmir. From everything I have read, I can’t see that they are wrong. While the Mets were blasted ever since trading Kazmir, the reality is that the Rays only got four very good seasons out of him. The next Nolan Ryan may in fact have become the next Victor Zambrano. Ironic how life works out sometimes.
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To Keep or Get Rid of the DH: The Future of the Designated Hitter in MLB
Monday May 16, 2011
MLB reports: Growing up in an American League city (Toronto), my entire baseball life has existed with the designated hitter in baseball. Aside from the occasional national league games on television, I always accepted and loved the DH. Dave Parker was one of my favorite players and he epitomized everything good about the DH. A great hitter with a sweet home run stroke, I would have likely not been able to watch Dave Parker for most of the tail end of his career if not for the designated hitter. Parker, slowed by age, weight gain and lack of mobility saw his time in the outfield end fortunately by 1989 when he left the Reds and the National League forever and joined Oakland. I always thought of the DH as giving the American League the advantage of an additional strong bat in the lineup, with the National League being less exciting being based on pitching, defense and weak pitchers hitting. But as I grew in age, my opinion of the DH began to shift and I started to appreciate traditional baseball in its purest form.
If you give me today the choice of an American League or National League game, 9 out of 10 times I will choose the NL game. When you account for the game having a pitcher bat, the dynamics of the game itself changes drastically. The National League has more in-game moves by its manager, including pinch-hitting and double switches. The best example I give of a typical NL game scenario is going into the 7th inning of a game, with a 1-run differential, 1-2 base runners on and the pitcher coming up to bat. These types of scenarios and successful choices make or break NL managers. By leaving a pitcher in to bat, the manager risks a likely out and the loss of an opportunity at scoring a crucial run. But by pinch-hitting for the pitcher, the manager is forced to sometimes take out a pitcher who is pitching well and leaving the bullpen to possibly blow the game. The game within the game is truly found in the National League. But if the NL is so great and pitchers should be hitting, why is the DH still around? For many reasons I will show and which likely means the DH is not going anywhere for a long time still.
Many modern baseball experts advocate the DH as saving wear and tear on pitchers, who as inexperienced hitters run the risk of injuries by batting and running the bases. A classic example is Chien-Ming Wang, who injured his foot in Houston during running the bases and later proceeded to hurt his shoulder and never recover. It was argued that if Wang was not forced to bat in the NL during inter-league play, he would have never been injured. Further, aside from a few exceptions such as Carlos Zambrano and Micah Owings, pitchers usually cannot hit their weight. In many cases, pitchers are literally automatic outs. To create excitement for fans and better offensive baseball, the DH was born in the AL in 1973 and has lasted ever since. The DH also allows older hitters to keep playing even when their defensive games have abandoned them (see Guerrero, Matsui and Ortiz today). Finally, the DH allows positional players the occasional rest by not having to play in the field but still keeps their bats in the lineup for their respective teams.
The bottom line on the DH comes down to tradition vs. convenience in my estimation. I know in my brain that having a DH works best for the players, from the health and productivity of both pitchers and hitters. For example, none of us would want to watch Adam Dunn in the outfield anymore and having the DH in Chicago allows his superior bat to continue cranking home runs while not hurting his team defensively. But in my heart, I yearn for a Dodgers/Giants rivalry, where during a 2-1 game lineup changes run rampant in the later innings. That is the way baseball was truly meant to be played. I am not a full basebal purist, as I do advocate for an expanded playoffs and complete re-alignment in baseball. But when it comes to the designated hitter, my hope is that one day it is abolished completely and we can go back to “real” baseball.
If we lived in a baseball world with no DH, pitchers would just have to take more BP and if truth be known, many of them would love hitting and value the chance at getting their swings in. If you ask me truthfully though, I can’t see the American League getting rid of the DH and to go further, I actually can see the National League adopting the DH one day as well. As we grow and move forward in time, most traditions tend to fall by the side for improvements. In this case, this will be one of the instances where I hope that is not the case. Some traditions need to remain intact. I certainly hope the game of baseball as it is played in the National League continues until the end of time.
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