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The All-Bargain 2012 MLB Free Agency Team

Monday November 21, 2011

MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen: Every baseball offseason, we all seem to fall into a familiar trap. The focus always seem to be on the “prize” free agents, while bargains always seem to be had (especially when the big spenders have reached their budgets). So while Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, C.J. Wilson and company are the majority of the headlines- are they truly the difference makers? Getting quality players that are more economical may in fact have a stronger impact on a team that is looking to compete. It allows for a team to fill needs while devoting financial resources to other resources, including scouting, signing draft picks and locking up younger players before they hit free agency. Remember: a team has many expense areas but only a certain amount of money to go around. Devoting $100 million+ to 1 player tends to significantly limit a team, regardless of the strength of such a player. “Spreading the wealth” so to speak, will limit the risk of putting all the eggs in one basket. It is a similar to diversification of stocks. A well-rounded portfolio will tend to outperform most others. But if those assets can be acquired at a reduced cost, the return will look even better.

Now, imagine that we were going to build a starting lineup based purely on free agents. What available free agents would give a team the best bang for the buck? If we were to look at the 2012 MLB free agency list, our All-Bargain team would probably look a little something like this:

C: Ryan Doumit (starter) and Jose Molina (backup): At approximately $5 million combined, Doumit and Molina should offer fairly solid production at a reasonable rate. Doumit also offers versatility by playing first and some outfield. If (and when) Doumit gets injured, Molina can handle the starting chores for a stretch with a minor leaguer backing up. In my estimation Doumit has the potential to breakout in a Mike Napoli manner. He has the skills and power. The guy just has to stay healthy. As far as overall offense and defense from the catching position, there are fewer solid backups that Jose- part of the great “Catching Molinas.”

1B: Carlos Pena: This one area that I am prepared to splurge. For all the talk of the low average, Pena should offer good power, a solid OBP and gold glove defense. At approximately $10 million per season, he will still be a bargain to the other heavyweights at the position. This is one area that you need top-notch offense and Pena should deliver again in 2012.

2B: Kelly Johnson: See Carlos Pena but at a more reasonable ticket price. Johnson has a strong knack for getting on base and has excellent power for the position. He is a gamer that will always have a spot on my team.

SS: Ramon Santiago: You can’t fully appreciate what Santiago offers unless you watch him on a daily basis. Few infielders have a glove as strong as his. While not the most gifted offensive player, he can chip in the occasional big hit while holding his own as a #8 or #9 hitter. Another versatile player to have on the roster. Options are always good.

3B: Kevin Kouzmanoff: The “Crushin’ Russian” is on the squad. Yes, I am still holding out hope that he will come together. I would take a chance on a breakout. At the very least you will get good “D” and some offense at a bargain basement price. If he doesn’t come together, I would grab Casey Blake or Wilson Betemit to sit on the bench if they come dirt cheap.

CF: Grady Sizemore: I like the style of Ruben Amaro Jr. and Pat Gillick. I would have been at Sizemore’s house on the first day of free agency as well. Given his high upside and apparent health, I would sign him as quickly as possible. If you get even 75% of the old Sizemore, you still have a likely All-Star.

LF: Raul Ibanez: I’ve heard about his defense. But I am still signing him. Rauuuuul will come at a fraction of his last big contract. The man owns his own rejuvenation chamber and still has the body of a 35-year old. Strong leader, 20+ home runs and all at a maximum of cost $5 million per season. Mark him sold.

RF: J.D. Drew: Hungry for one more big contract? With Scott Boras as his agent, this on-base machine should be hungry to prove that he is healthy and productive. He may cost $3 million per season. Well worth the risk. Just to cover ourselves, Johnny Damon is also coming on board as a 4th outfielder. Between Sizmore, Ibanez, Drew and Damon, we should be able to run out an outfield most days. If David DeJesus or Rick Ankiel are prepared to hang around as 5th outfielders/designated hitters, we may find some spare cash for them as well.

DH: If we are talking non-National League team, then we HAVE to grab Josh Willingham as our designated hitter. Or even a right fielder if we must. The Hammer still carries a heavy bat and should anchor the offense. He still has a couple of more productive years in him. He should come at a relative bargain price considering 25+ home run bats are not easy to come by.

SP: Chris Capuano, Bruce Chen, Aaron Harang, Paul Maholm, Brad Penny, Dontrelle Willis: From these six selected starters, we should have ourselves a fairly decent rotation. Pitching is one of the most difficult areas on any roster to fill, especially starters. You have to catch lightning in a bottle and hope many factors, especially health, work out. Maholm and Harang should be our “aces” with approximately 12 wins a-piece. Capuano will be the third starter, who should be even better with another healthy year under his belt. Between Chen, D-Train and Penny, we will count on veteran inning-eaters who are able to squeeze out wins. Not the team’s greatest source of strength, but all six of these pitchers combined will cost less per season that C.C. Sabathia on his own.

RP: Matt Capps, Jonathan Broxton, Jeremy Accardo, Shawn Camp, Fernando Rodney, Damaso Marte, J.C. Romero: Going with the Tony La Russa formula, we are putting together a veteran pen with several closing options. If at full strength, Broxton should be the ninth inning guy. Otherwise, the role will fall to Capps or Rodney. Accardo and Camp should be decent middle relievers with Marte and Romero balancing out the pen. Used to their capabilities, our pen should help us contend.

Conclusion: Building a team on a budget is not the easiest process. This team will cost us likely north of $80 million dollars, but should stay under the magical $100 million mark. Considering it is a team built from scratch and based on availability, “Team MLB Reports” should be a veteran squad that stays in the pennant race. Even with the relative slim pickings in some areas, this year’s free agency squad offers value at most positions. While no teams will be built based solely on free agency this year, there are enough complimentary parts that any Major League team can find good value. It is just a question of shopping smart and buying at the right time.

Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen)

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Tags: baseball, broxton, capps, capuano, chen, damon, doumit, drew, fielder, free agency, harang, johnson, kouzmanoff, maholm, mlb, molina, pena, penny, pujols, rodney, santiago, sizemore, willingham, willis

Welcome Back Dontrelle Willis: D-Train Comeback with the Reds

Jul 16

Posted by Jonathan Hacohen

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Friday July 15, 2011

MLB reports: The D-Train is back baby. Kind of. It’s too early to tell. Dontrelle Willis burst onto the scene and looked to be a star in the making once upon a time. After four solid campaigns in Florida, 2007 was seen as an off-year for the ace of the Marlins. Drafted originally by the Cubs in the 8th round in the 2000 draft, Willis was shifted in a package of players including Julian Tavarez for Matt Clement and Antonio Alfonseca. Willis became an instant star in Florida and throughout the MLB community. He had his own television commercials promoting the sport and was considered one of baseball’s greatest ambassadors. In his 2003 NL ROY campaign, Willis made the All-Star team and won a World Series. Not a bad way to start a career. From there, Willis made his second and last appearance at an All-Star game in 2005 and finished second in the NL CY Young voting for top pitcher. With such a solid start to his career, few observers blinked when Willis was relatively ineffective in 2007. However, the misery was the sign of things to come. The road became bumpy and full of twists and turns that few expected. From the majors to the minors, back and forth, until few expected to see him back. Until this past Sunday, July 10th, when Dontrelle Willis returned to the major leagues, this time in a Reds uniform.

Although the blip in 2007 may not have scared off most observers, it was enough to put the Marlins in a tailspin. On December 5, 2007, the Marlins shipped off their franchise hitter and pitcher in Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis to the Detroit Tigers, in exchange for prospects Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller and four others. As legend has it, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski approached the Marlins and gave a list of available prospects. The Marlins made their selections and the trade took no time to put together. Shortly after, Willis signed a 3-year, $29 million contract and Cabrera signed his monster contract to make him one of the top paid players in the game. The move of Cabrera was seen at the time as partially motivated by the clearing of Willis’ salary off the Marlins’ books. Despite off-field incidents involving alcohol related arrests and domestic abuse, Cabrera has been a perennial MVP candidate since joining the Tigers. Miller and Maybin, the centerpieces of the deal for the Marlins, have not played to expectations and have since moved on to the Red Sox and Padres respectively. Then there was Willis. While viewed at the time as giving the Tigers a top-of-the-rotation starter, Willis proved to be anything but. As the story goes, when Willis came to Detroit, he did not bring his fastball or his control and was run out-of-town in 2010 as a result.

Willis suffered for two and a bit seasons in Detroit, receiving his walking papers officially on May 30, 2010. During his stay in Detroit, Willis played for three different minor league teams in two years, making it all the way down to A-ball at different points. While a demotion to A-ball may have benefitted Roy Halladay in his younger years, the same could not be said for Willis. The jumping started, from the Diamondbacks to the minor league levels pitching for the San Francisco Giants organization. Then Willis signed with the Reds this past off-season a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. Despite playing well in spring training, Willis was still sent to pitch in AAA for Louisville to start the 2011 season.

Here are the career numbers of Dontrelle Willis as they stand today:

Year	Tm	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	BB	SO
2003	FLA	14	6	3.30	27	27	160.2	148	58	142
2004	FLA	10	11	4.02	32	32	197.0	210	61	139
2005	FLA	22	10	2.63	34	34	236.1	213	55	170
2006	FLA	12	12	3.87	34	34	223.1	234	83	160
2007	FLA	10	15	5.17	35	35	205.1	241	87	146
2008	DET	0	2	9.38	8	7	24.0	18	35	18
2009	DET	1	4	7.49	7	7	33.2	37	28	17
2010	TOT	2	3	5.62	15	13	65.2	72	56	47
2010	DET	1	2	4.98	9	8	43.1	48	29	33
2010	ARI	1	1	6.85	6	5	22.1	24	27	14
2011	CIN	0	0	3.00	1	1	6.0	4	4	4
9 Seasons		71	63	4.11	193	190	1152.0	1177	467	843
162 Game Avg.		13	11	4.11	34	34	205	209	83	150

FLA (5 yrs)		68	54	3.78	162	162	1022.2	1046	344	757
DET (3 yrs)		2	8	6.86	24	22	101.0	103	92	68
ARI (1 yr)		1	1	6.85	6	5	22.1	24	27	14
CIN (1 yr)		0	0	3.00	1	1	6.0	4	4	4

NL (7 yrs)		69	55	3.84	169	168	1051.0	1074	375	775
AL (3 yrs)		2	8	6.86	24	22	101.0	103	92	68

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

Since leaving Florida, Willis at best has been inconsistent to unusable. A starting pitchers that cannot consistently throw strikes and get hitters out will not last in the majors. Dontrelle Willis proved this in 2007, when his shrinking talent led him to a ticket out of Florida as he continued to bounce around, until last week when Willis pitched for the Reds. Quite a performance for a pitcher not expected to ever pitch again in the minors. Willis proved last Sunday he was back, if only for one shining moment.

On July 10, 2011, Dontrelle Willis made his first MLB start in over a year against the Milwaukee Brewers. Willis pitched 6 innings, giving up 2 hits, 4 earned runs and a 4/4 BB/K. Willis gets his next kick at the can this coming Monday, July 18th vs. the Pirates and James McDonald. Should be a powerhouse game, keep an eye on it if you can. This is no surprise, given how well Willis pitched for the Bats this year. In 13 starts, Willis had a 5-2 record, 2.63 ERA, 67 SO in 75.1 IP and only 20 walks, good for a 1.2o8 WHIP. Considering that Willis struggled at both the major league and minor league levels from 2008-2010, his strong start in AAA was seen as a possible sign of a comeback. Now after having his first MLB start under the belt, Willis can go out and simply pitch his game.

Willis was seen as battling an anxiety disorder during his time in Detroit and many experts were ready to write him off. Believe it or not, Dontrelle Willis still isn’t even 30 years-old yet, with his birthday coming up on January 12 2012. He is still young and has the potential inside of him. Without any major physical injuries or setbacks, Willis still has a good arm and has many innings in him to pitch. This year, watching Willis in spring training, he looked to have his head back on straight. He was playing the game the right way. Strong pitching and timely hitting to boot. But despite his spring success, Reds management decided to send Willis to AAA until his recall last week. It looks like Willis has undergone a transformation as far as simplifying his delivery and avoiding his non-traditional leg kick. From the Reds point of view, they may have landed the steal of the year with Willis in their rotation.

This story till boil down to the confidence and mental health of Dontrelle Willis. As long as the man can think positive thoughts and do his thing on the mound, good things will happen. As long as Willis stays healthy, he will succeed provided he keeps his head on straight. With more and more MLB players admitting to depression and anxiety disorders, it is clear that today’s game is as much mental as it is physical. One great thing about sports, especially baseball, is that fans love an underdog that makes a comeback. For a guy with a ROY, World Series ring and two All-Star appearances, you don’t see many comebacks bigger than that of Dontrelle Willis. With one start under his belt and another one coming back next Monday, Willis is making baby steps. Given his age and track record, the potential is there. Here is hoping that Willis can fulfill it.