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MLB Draft Signing Deadline: Who Will Sign By August 15th
Friday August 12, 2011
Rob Bland (Intern- MLB Reports): With the August 15 deadline for all 2011 MLB draftees to sign, players and teams are getting down to the wire with negotiations. Only two of the top ten picks have been signed, right-handed pitcher Trevor Bauer, and second baseman Cory Spangenberg by the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres, respectively. Of the 33 first round picks, 9 have signed, as well as 14 of the 27 picks in the supplemental first round. It is expected that most of the picks from the first round will go down to the last hour, if not minute. However, there is a lot of speculation about who will not sign, and the fans of each team are hoping and praying their team will get their guy. Some players come into the draft with lofty expectations and high estimates of signing bonus money. As a result, many of the lower budget franchises stay away from these players, and draft “safe” players, who will sign for a more reasonable price.
The Oakland Athletics’ GM Billy Beane was made famous through the book “Moneyball”, which portrayed the club as a bottom feeder organization financially. They had to pick lesser talents in order to sign all their draft picks. They shied away from the big “sexy” names on draft boards and targeted players with specific skill sets. Other teams who have done this in the past to varying degrees of success are the Pittsburgh Pirates, Toronto Blue Jays and Kansas City Royals. In the last couple of years, these organizations have turned their philosophies around, drafting tough to sign players with higher ceilings, and ending up signing most of them. Today will highlight a few of the players drafted who will be tougher than others to sign.
From this year’s draft, one of the players who was known to be extremely
difficult to sign was Josh Bell. On talent alone, he was rated as an early first round pick, yet dropped to the second round to the Pittsburgh Pirates. He had sent a letter to Major League Baseball advising teams not to draft him on account that he wanted to attend the University of Texas. Some have said this was just a bargaining tool to simply add more leverage to his situation, while others think he will not sign under any circumstances. It has been predicted that it will take a minimum of $10M and a Major League contract in order to sign him. I feel that the Pirates are an extreme long shot to sign Bell, and he will attend U of T and be a Longhorn for the next three years.
High school right-handed pitcher Tyler Beede could have been a top 10 pick, with his 95 mph fastball and devastating change-up. Beede was widely known to be seeking a bonus upwards of $3-4M. The Toronto Blue Jays and their new management have made it a point to take the best player available when they it is their turn to select a player in the draft. So, when it came to their turn as the 21st selection, the Jays did not hesitate to choose Beede, who has said it will come down to money in the long run. I believe the Jays will sign him in the final minutes for close to $3M.
With the 5th overall pick, the Kansas City Royals had a tough decision to make. Outfielder Bubba Starling, a hometown kid from Kansas, was widely considered the top prep offensive talent in the draft was still on the board. Starling has a scholarship to the University of Nebraska to play both football and baseball. It is very likely that a bonus upwards of $8M will be what it takes for Starling to sign with KC on August 15. Expect this deal to get done.
Gerrit Cole, the flame throwing right-handed pitcher from UCLA was taken by the Pirates first overall in the draft. Cole has reached 102 mph on radar guns and routinely hits triple digits. Cole has yet to sign, but is widely expected to join the Pirates. A Major League deal for 4 years and $8M or so is likely.
Rice University has been known to producing top talent, as witnessed by having eight first round picks in the last 11 years, most notably when Phil Humber and Jeff Niemann went 3rd and 4th overall in the 2004 draft. Another first rounder from Rice was Lance Berkman in 1997. So when one of the top three candidates for the first overall pick came down to an infielder from Rice, who just happened to win the Dick Howser Trophy, (essentially the Heisman Award for college baseball players), nobody was surprised. Anthony Rendon may not have above average speed or the best glove, but he has an above average arm and was considered by most to be the best hitter in the country. Rendon dropped to #6 to the Washington Nationals due to signability concerns but should sign for $4M plus.
Shortstops with ultra talent often get huge signing bonuses and Cleveland Indians’ first pick (8th overall), Francisco Lindor will be no exception. Lindor has the talent to warrant a $3M bonus, but should hold out for more. The Indians tend to shy away from this kind of pick, but the talent speaks for itself and I believe the Indians will go as high as $3.5M to sign the talented shortstop.
There has arguably not been a better high school pitcher in the last decade than
flame throwing Dylan Bundy. The right-hander has reached 100 mph and has 2 plus secondary pitches. His high school pitching numbers are straight out of a video game. 71 innings, 2 earned runs. TWO! He also had 158 strikeouts to 5 walks. FIVE WALKS! Good for a 31.6:1 K:BB ratio. Oh, and the fact that he can also hit, as evidenced by his 11 home runs and 54 RBI in only 105 at-bats doesn’t hurt. The University of Texas commit could command a Major League contract and $6-8M. He should sign; my guess is $6.5M.
Here is the breakdown of the entire 2011 first round of picks, with players in bold having already signed:
1 Gerrit Cole RHP Pittsburgh Pirates
2 Danny Hultzen LHP Seattle Mariners
3 Trevor Bauer RHP Arizona Diamondbacks – ML deal 4/$7M
4 Dylan Bundy RHP Baltimore Orioles
5 Bubba Starling OF Kansas City Royals
6 Anthony Rendon 3B Washington Nationals
7 Archie Bradley RHP Arizona Diamondbacks
8 Francisco Lindor SS Cleveland Indians
9 Javier Baez SS Chicago Cubs
10 Cory Spangenberg 2B San Diego Padres – $1.86M
11 George Springer OF Houston Astros
12 Taylor Jungmann RHP Milwaukee Brewers
13 Brandon Nimmo OF New York Mets
14 Jose Fernandez RHP Florida Marlins
15 Jed Bradley LHP Milwaukee Brewers
16 Chris Reed LHP LA Dodgers
17 C.J. Cron Jr. 1B LA Angels – $1.467M
18 Sonny Gray RHP Oakland Athletics – $1.54M
19 Matt Barnes RHP Boston Red Sox
20 Tyler Anderson LHP Colorado Rockies
21 Tyler Beede RHP Toronto Blue Jays
22 Kolten Wong 2B St. Louis Cardinals – $1.3M
23 Alex Meyer RHP Washington Nationals
24 Taylor Guerrieri RHP Tampa Bay Rays
25 Joe Ross RHP San Diego Padres
26 Blake Swihart C Boston Red Sox
27 Robert Stephenson RHP Cincinnati Reds
28 Sean Gilmartin LHP Atlanta Braves – $1.13M
29 Joe Panik SS San Francisco Giants – $1.116M
30 Levi Michael SS Minnesota Twins
31 Mikie Mahtook OF Tampa Bay Rays
32 Jake Hager SS Tampa Bay Rays – $963K
33 Kevin Matthews LHP Texas Rangers – $936K
I think that although you can’t be sure about these kinds of things, my gut feeling is that every first rounder this year will actually sign by August 15th. I also predict that at least one signing will come minutes after the deadline, probably a Scott Boras client, and the league will allow the deal to pass.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Intern, Rob Bland. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
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Talking Mets with Author Howard Megdal
Tuesday August 2, 2011
MLB reports: Back on June 5th, we had the pleasure of interviewing author Howard Megdal. The author of The Baseball Talmud, we discussed with Howard his 2nd literary work, “Taking the Field: A Fan’s Quest to Run the Team He Loves.” You can read our interview with Howard, as well as our review of Taking the Field.
Well, we enjoyed speaking with Howard so much that we asked him back to talk Mets baseball. Guess what…he accepted! We questioned Howard on all Mets topics, including team ownership, drafting and trades. For the best in Mets discussion, we bring you published author, Howard Megdal:
MLB reports: Thank you for joining us back on the Reports Howard. You are our first return interviewee! I enjoyed reading and reviewing “Taking the Field” very much and have received great feedback on it. How have things gone so far with the book for you and what has been the response from the baseball community, particularly Mets fans?
Howard Megdal: Response has been terrific throughout- I’ve really enjoyed the chance to hear what Mets fans think. Contrary to popular opinion, it is entirely possible to get them to sign onto a clear positive vision of how to run the team. Not universally, of course, but that’s what Mets fans want at the end of the day.
MLB reports: Since the ending of your book, new chapters have been written in Mets history so to speak. The names Wilpon, Madoff and Einhorn have been in the news for quite some time. What are your thoughts on the Mets ownership situation?
Howard Megdal: I think it is extremely unfortunate, since in Sandy Alderson, the Mets have the GM they’ve needed for 20 years-and now, the team’s medium-term financial future is in great doubt. Mets fans should be hoping for a speedy resolution here, and that probably means David Einhorn: Majority Owner.
MLB reports: Where do you see Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes playing next year? What type of dollars and years are we likely talking?
Howard Megdal: I believe Carlos Beltran will be playing outfield for
a team willing to give him 3-4 years on a contract. Me, and I’m the biggest Beltran fan there is, I wouldn’t bet a multi-year deal on his knee. As for Jose Reyes, my gut feeling is that ends up a bidding war between the Yankees and Red Sox. I don’t think the Mets have the financial wherewithal to bring him back to Queens.
MLB reports: Many Mets fans have been banging their heads on the wall since Jason Bay joined the team. I had a bad feeling on this signing, specifically that the ballpark and team would not be a fit. How did you view the Bay signing originally and has your opinion changed since?
Howard Megdal: My view of it originally is that it was exactly the wrong thing to do- he wasn’t likely to age well, he brought one skill- power- and that it would probably be an albatross contract by year 3. Never did I imagine he would be so terrible from day one.
MLB report: I suggested awhile back that Jerry Seinfeld should invest in the team. I see him as a strong icon for the Mets that could turn around its popularity and fortunes. Has this been discussed in Mets circles?
Howard Megdal: It has, but it doesn’t sound like Jerry is looking to take on that kind of active role.
MLB reports: Johan Santana. While some say he “might” come back this year, I don’t see it happening. Will the Santana of old ever emerge for the Mets?
Howard Megdal: Who knows? He’s had a complicated shoulder surgery, and the number of pitchers who have returned have varied widely in their subsequent performances. The early signs are good, and I’d be reluctant to bet against a competitor like Santana. What I think he has going for him is that he already knows how to pitch- he isn’t going to need to transition from being a pure stuff pitcher. But could that shoulder give out at any moment? Unfortunately, yes. My guess is he pitches 4-5 starts for the Mets in 2011, and pitches well.
MLB reports: Mets fans must be thrilled with the team’s play of late. Mirage or real?
Howard Megdal: Well, as I told my friends and family who were freaking out over their 5-13 start: “Don’t worry- the Mets are distinctly not terrible.” I stand by that. Had them at 84 wins at the start of the year, and still see them finishing around 80, even without Ike Davis or Beltran for the last two months.
MLB reports: Sandy Alderson and his loyal foot soldiers. Have they been everything that you hoped they would be? Please give Alderson his Mets report card to date and don’t hold back!
Howard Megdal: I am loving the way Alderson runs this team. There are small things I’d do differently here and there- Daniel Murphy playing 2B being the only one I can think of at the moment- but I absolutely adore the LOGIC, TRANSPARENCY and PASSION of his regime. Just wrote a piece on a minor arc that some may miss- but it stands as a companion piece to, well, everything Steve Phillips did. There’s a glorious attention to detail.
Piece is here:
http://mets.lohudblogs.com/2011/07/29/doing-it-right-the-feliciano-fulmer-affair/
MLB reports: I have thrown around the idea of realignment. In my world, the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles and Nationals would all occupy the AL East. Regardless of the exact arrangement, I think a move to the AL to sit in the Yankees division would work well. You?
Howard Megdal: I have long said that if it locks in an end to the Designated Hitter, I’d be willing to consider realignment, though I am attached to the NL/AL breakdown. Will you agree to that? If so, sure.
MLB reports: You will not find a bigger fan of banishing the DH, so agreed!Turning to Francisco Rodriguez, what is his future and does he still have “it”?
Howard Megdal: I think K-Rod is one of the best closers the Mets
ever had. That said, Thank goodness they got rid of that ridiculous 2012 option. Even if the team weren’t in dire financial straits, it is a ridiculous waste of resources to pay your non-Mariano Rivera closer $17.5 million.
MLB reports: From what you proposed in “Taking the Field” to where the Mets stand today, have the Mets been following your plan and direction? If you change anything about the current squad, what would it be?
Howard Megdal: See above, the use of Murphy. I don’t get it. With his bat, he’s a top-five MLB 2B, and he’s handled the position well. He is not even average at 1B offensively, and he flat-out cannot play the outfield. But again, outside of that? No, they’ve been fantastic. And because of their decision-making in other areas, I don’t conclude that they are just being ignorant about Murphy- I assume there’s more to know. Certainly the first question I have for Alderson the next time I interview him.
MLB reports: What do you think of Brandon Nimmo, the Mets 1st round pick this year? Was he drafted based on talent or cost? How has his selection been received in New York thus far?
Howard Megdal: TBD, but as I said in the last answer, their overall performance gives me confidence in their individual choices. I think projecting draft picks is a fool’s errand, however.
MLB reports: Are Mets fans done waiting for Fernando Martinez to develop into a superstar? Will he become the next Carlos Gonzalez or Lastings Milledge?
Howard Megdal: Best-case, he’s Alex Escobar. The guy just can’t stay healthy. I saw him in spring training- he ran like an elderly person. It is such a shame; the guy has tremendous talent, and he works hard. His body just keeps betraying him. Incidentally, I haven’t given up on Milledge, yet. He’s only in his age-26 season. .832 OPS at Triple-A with 18 SB in 24 attempts. It isn’t too late.
MLB reports: Thank you for joining us today on the Reports. You certainly did not hold back in your answers and gave us a great education on Mets baseball. We wish you the best of luck on your latest book and look forward to your next book project.
We highly encourage everyone to check out “Taking the Field”, one of my personal favorite baseball books of the year. You can follow Howard on Twitter and click here for Howard’s website.
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Analyzing the 2011 MLB Draft: 1st Round Steals and Misses
Tuesday June 7, 2011
MLB reports: Day one of the 2011 MLB Draft is now in the books and we are moving on to Round 2. The most hyped draft in recent memory did not disappoint, as the results of Round 1 featured many surprises and shockers. With the amount of mock drafts and industry experts covering the big event, you would think that the first round results would have been more predictable. But many teams took diverse routes in making their selections in the first round and now the second-guessing begins. While the analysis may look very different in 1-5 years from now, the day after the draft- we take a look at the highlights of the first round and our most noted steals and misses.
STEALS
6. Washington Nationals: Anthony Rendon, 3B, Rice
A team is simply not supposed to land the top hitter of the draft at the #6 slot but that is exactly what the Nationals did with Rendon. If not for injury concerns, Rendon would have gone as one of the first two picks. While Rendon does carry some risk, the Nationals loved his upside and had to make the selection. The best pick of the draft for the slot in my opinion.
12. Milwaukee Brewers: Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Texas
15. Milwaukee Brewers (for unsigned 2010 first rounder Dylan Covey): Jed Bradley, LHP, Georgia Tech
The Brewers really cleaned up by landing not one but two top-ten starting pitchers by drafting Jungmann and Bradley. Jungmann is the 6’6″ gunslinging Texas pitcher and Bradley is one of the top lefty pitchers. Just like that, in one round the Brewers began the process of restocking their farm system with top pitching prospects.
19. Boston Red Sox (from Tigers for Type-A Victor Martinez): Matt Barnes, RHP, UConn
26. Boston Red Sox (from Rangers for Type-A Adrian Beltre): Blake Swihart, C, Rio Rancho (N.M.) Cleveland HS
The mighty Red sox were at it again by landing a top-ten starting pitcher and the top catching prospect in the draft with the #19 and #26 picks. Barnes was considered to go high, considering his 6’4′, 205 lbs frame and fluid delivery. Then Swihart, whom the Red Sox were known to have targeted at #19, fell all the way to them at #26. A great day for a team that knows how to draft well, plain and simple.
24. Tampa Bay Rays (from Red Sox for Type-A Carl Crawford): Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Columbia (S.C.) Spring Valley HS
31. Tampa Bay Rays (from Yankeesfor Type-A Rafael Soriano): Mikie Mahtook, OF, LSU
With ten top picks, the Rays were armed with the means to obtain prospects and they got two great ones in Guerrieri and Mahtook. Maturity issues dogged Guerrieri and based on talent alone, he should have gone in the top-12. Mahtook was seen as a possible Mets pick at #13, with a solid glove, bat and speed. Possibly the next Carl Crawford, the Rays showed that good scouting pays off even when you draft late. The Rays may have lost Crawford and Soriano to free agency but they will have the last laugh when both Guerrieri and Mahtook make the majors one day.
MISSES
13. New York Mets: Brandon Nimmo, OF Cheyenne East (Wyo.) HS
Nimmo was picked for the most part based on signability and cost. With the Mets in financial limbo, the team passed on many far superior talents to take Nimmo at #13. The kid is considered a project as he never played high school ball and should have been a 2nd round pick. For a team that desperately needs to rebuild its system, this pick will be a miss.
16. Los Angeles Dodgers: Chris Reed, LHP, Stanford
See Nimmo at #13. The Dodgers are in poor shape financially and like the Mets made their selection based on cost and signability. For another kid that was projected to be a 2nd round pick and also likely to be a reliever, this draft slot was too much of a reach. Overall a great opportunity for Reed, but a huge blow to the Dodgers farm system.
18. Oakland Athletics: Sonny Gray, RHP, Vanderbilt
Reports have Oakland viewing Gray as a starter, but I see the #18 pick likely as a future reliever. Based on his size (5’11”), there will be questions of durability and ability to succeed at the major league level. With so many quality prospects still available, the jury is definitely out on this pick.
29. San Francisco Giants: Joe Panik, SS, St. John’s
The media will have a field day with this pick as the Giants appear to have made a “Panik” move with the selection of Joe Panik in the first round. In desperate need of offense, the Giants opted to grab a shortstop late. With Josh Bell still on the board, a higher risk/reward pick may have been in order. Panik has a strong glove and decent bat, but does not project to have first round type talent.
30. Minnesota Twins: Levi Michael, SS, North Carolina
See Panik at #29. The Twins were in the same boat as the Giants when making their selection. However, the difference is that the Giants are open to spending on draft selections while the Twins tend to be more fiscally responsible (cheap). With the new ballpark in place, the Twins should have gone after a selection with higher upside. They played it safe with Michael, but the ceiling is not high enough to warrant the selection with Bell and Purke still available.
Previous Draft Articles by MLB reports:
The 2011 MLB Draft: Recap of the Results, 1st Round Picks and Future Stars
Updating the 2011 MLB Draft: Baseball Prospects and Draft Projections
The 2011 MLB Draft: The Report and Inside Scoops
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