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2014 ALCS Preview: O’s Vs Royals
This year’s 2014 ALCS matches up two teams that not many people predicted to get to this point, but as arguably the two hottest teams in baseball, the Baltimore Orioles and the Kansas City Royals definitely will be a fun and exciting series to watch.
By Nicholas Delahanty (MLB Reports Writer) Follow @Nick_Delahanty
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It’s been a while since the Baltimore Orioles and the Kansas City Royals have found themselves in the American League Championship Series, but the wait for these two fan bases is finally over.
These two teams will open up a best-of-seven series at Camden Yards on Friday night.
Although it isn’t the usual suspects we see in the series (such as the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox of the world), baseball fans should definitely keep an eye on this series, as two of the hottest teams in baseball will face off to determine who represents the American League in the World Series.
Patient Hitters: The Leaders in Walks
MLB reports: As many of you know from my past articles and tweets, the one quality I look for the most in hitters is patience: the ability to take walks. The art of the base on balls was exemplified somewhat in the “moneyball” Oakland approach and has been adopted by the Red Sox team in particular, among others. People often ask me why I value hitters that take walks so highly. Very simply, walks in my mind lead often to the overall development of every facet of a hitters game. A hitter that has good judgement of the strike zone and take walks should get on base at a high rate. A hitter that takes many walks is more likely to judge better pitches to hit, which should increase their number of hits and home runs correspondingly. When I used to play fantasy baseball, I often looked for batters with high walk totals in filling out my rosters. These hitters would win championships for me, as they do often for baseball teams in real life.
Patient hitters have a high value in baseball, this has become a fact of life. Putting this theory to the test, let’s take a look at which batters sit among the leader board in walks as of today. It will be interesting to see which of these players are considered top players, historically and coming into their own as of today. Has the number of walks taken this year helped each player in other statistical categories? Are each of these players better hitters for having many walks? The results may surprise you.
1st: Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays (19)
Last year 100 walks went hand-in-hand with a league leading 54 home runs. This year, Bautista leads the league with 19 walks and 8 home runs. For a man who hit .260 last year, the high walk has remained while the average has jumped to a league leading .364. Interesting to note, none of Batista’s walks have been intentional. Bautista for me is the poster boy of how patience and power are inter-twined. You almost cannot have one without the other. For anyone that doubts the value of walks, go look up Bautista’s stats again…they will astound you.
T-2nd: Bobby Abreu, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (18)
Bobby Abreu, along with Youkilis, Adam Dunn and Swisher, is a resident in the patience club. With 1,360 career walks, Abreu always brings on-base capabilities for any team he plays for. Long seen as having declining power, Abreu still hit a decent 20 home runs last year. Combined with his 87 walks, Abreu managed a .352 OBP despite a .255 AVG. This year, with a puny one home run and .244 AVG, Abreu is sitting at an unacceptable .329 SLG. But with a .388 OBP, the 37-year-old Abreu still has some value. In his prime, Abreu showed that 100+ walks and a .300+ AVG could lead to 40+ home runs in a season. But Abreu, the elder of the list, only has walks to show for any value left in his tank and is likely dependant on those walks for still receiving any playing time at all. The end is near, but the walks continue.
T-2nd: Joey Votto, Cincinatti Reds (18)
As a rookie, I read that Dusty Baker told Joey Votto that he should becoming more free-swinging and less patient to develop as a hitter. Fortunately for Votto and all Reds fans, the Canadian ignored the advice and continued to grow as a hitter….his way. Last year Votto had 91 walks, which translated to 37 home runs and a league leading .400 OBP and .600 SLG. Hitting .324 along the way, Votto was intentionally walked eight times. Votto fits the bill perfectly- a hitter that picks his spots, waits for the right pitches to hit and avoids the bad ones to get on base. This year, votto has 18 walks to only 11 strike outs. The knock on some patient hitters is that they take too many called third strikes and often hit for low averages. As part of the core of this top list, Votto is able to not only hit many home runs but keep his average steady to high in the process. Many experts see Votto as having surpassed Albert Pujols as the king of the NL. Based on his numbers-to-date, I have a hard time arguing. Votto’s bread and butter has been his eye at the plate. The 2010 MVP and runner-up 2008 ROY can thank his walks for much of his success in baseball.
4th: Jonny Gomes, Cincinatti Reds (17)
The fourth member of our list is the only real head scratcher in the bunch. While all the other listed hitters are known “walkers”, Gomes has basically come out of nowhere to join the group this year. With a career high of 61 walks in 2006 being far and away his highest season total, few people envisioned Jonny Gomes learning true patience at the age of 30. Perhaps spending time with Votto has helped his transition. But then, his .211 AVG would seem to indicate that he might not be fully paying attention in emulating Votto. At a season total of six home runs, Gomes is on pace to set a career high of 35 home runs. But looking at the full numbers, Gomes is the outlier. Hitting in the standard Nick Swisher mold, Gomes has compensated base hits for walks. With his 18 walks has come 23 strikeouts…which shows that he is missing as many pitches as he is taking. It is not a bad thing that Gomes is taking many walks, but unfortunately he is swinging for the fences and striking out at a Rob Deer frequency with too few base hits. Gomes may continue the walks, but without a steadier number of base hits to match, he may not be as productive as one may think.
T-5th: Daric Barton, Oakland Athletics (16)
Seemingly playing forever, the 25-year-old is entering his 5th season in the bigs. With a .368 career OBP and 110 walks last year (leading the AL), Barton is patience personified. The only knock on Barton has been his low batting average and power. 2011 has done nothing to calm those fears, as Barton is hitting .205 with zero home runs. Along with Gomes, Barton is sacrificing base hits for walks, but not seeing the tangible results that should come along with them. Well…at least Gomes is hitting home runs, I really can’t see what value Barton has other than walks. With ten home runs, Barton is slowly becoming another Travis Buck. As Barton continues to keep first base warm for Chris Carter, I am sad to see that his patience at the plate never translated to greater things for him offensively. Judging on his 17/20 BB/K ratio, Barton clearly is either not patient enough or judging the right pitches to hit. Based on this slow start, it appears the one-time A’s prospect has graduated into a full-fledged suspect.
T-5th: Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers (16)
One of my favorite hitters in the game, I always wondered what levels he could reach if he could take more walks. Always known for a solid average and home run bat, the answer to my question started to be answered last year. Cabrera set a career high with 89 walks last year and had correspondingly a career high 38 home runs. This year, with a 17/12 BB/K ratio, Cabrera has already five home runs, to go with his .338 AVG, .458 OBP and .610 SLG. These are really…really…really good numbers. Finishing second last year in MVP, the re-born Cabrera has become everything I could have imagined as a hitter. Together with Bautista in the AL and Joey Votto in NL, we are looking at three of the most complete hitters in the game. Taking many walks, hitting many home runs, hitting for a high average and not striking out a ton. Patience at the plate, waiting for the right pitches to hit and taking advantage of those pitches. Hitting perfection.
T-5th: Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox (16)
No conversation on walks is complete without including the Greek God of Walks himself, Kevin Youkilis. A .292 career hitter with a lifetime .394 OBP and .497 SLG, Youk fit the mold of the perfect hitter as I discussed above. But something has happened to Youk in 2011. Despite his high walks and decent number of home runs (4), his average sits at .222. Considering that Youk has hit .300+ the last three seasons, I do not expect a huge regression at the age of 32. As long as he stays healthy, Youk should be at .290, .390 and 25 home runs. That’s just how steady Youk is. But given his career low average this year, I actually suspect there may be an injury concern. I do not see Youk turning into Jonny Gomes overnight. Everything seems to even out in the long run and over the course of the season, the real Youk should emerge. Walks will always be there, but the rest of the game should follow as well. But even if he remains slumping, as Bobby Abreu and Daric Barton have shown, at least taking walks brings some contribution to the table. But unlike those two, at least Youk can still swing a power stick. Walks truly begin and end with Youk.
Thank you for reading today’s feature on walks and the hitters who take them. While we all have theories on the subject, think of all the best all around hitters of all time and take a look at their walk totals. While there may have been many home run kings with low averages or hit kings with poor power, take a look at the best all around hitters and see how many times they walked. Then tell me what you think about the value of the combination of power and patience and if you now subscribe to this theory. I certainly hope that you do.
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Top Home Run Hitters: MLB 2011
MLB reports: For pure fun today, I wanted to scan the major league baseball leaderboard and evaluate the top home run hitters of 2011. While this list can change at a moment’s notice, looking at the board with over three weeks into the season is always fun. At least my idea of fun. I originally planned to make a top ten list, but that was going to prove to be futile. Six hitters sit at the top of the list with seven home runs a piece and eight hitters tied for second with six home runs each. Let’s take a close look at the top fourteen then and see which hitters are likely to remain on the list and which have caught lightning in a bottle for a few games.
First Place – Seven Home Runs
Jose Bautista: Toronto Blue Jays
After 54 home runs last year, is anyone still waiting for a slowdown? With 19 walks already, .359 AVG and 1.256 OPS, Bautista continues to build on the momentum of last year. Living up to his large contract extension signed in the off-season, it appears that the new Jose Bautista is here to stay. At 30 years of age, Bautista is showing that he has enough juice in his bat to approach another 50 home runs this year.
Adrian Beltre: Texas Rangers
Another big contract signing entering 2011, Beltre has made good on the promise of his bat hitting in Arlington. Inconsistent throughout his career, analysts have often said that if healthy and playing in a hitters park, the sky is the limit. Beltre hit 48 home runs back in 2004 playing for the Dodgers and have never approached those numbers since. At 32 and playing in one of the best hitters park in a stacked lineup, big numbers could come his way. I see somewhat of a regression, but 30-35 home runs is a safe bet at this point.
Ryan Braun: Milwaukee Brewers
The Hebrew Hammer has 128 career home runs in four seasons going into 2011. He has Prince Fielder in the lineup with him. At 27, Braun is this generation’s Ralph Kiner and Hank Greenberg. No slowdowns ahead for this Brewer as he shoots for his first 40+ home run season. The 2007 NL Rookie of the Year is a future MVP and his time could come this year.
Curtis Granderson: New York Yankees
The only surprise in the top home run hitters category, Granderson has always shown glimpses of brilliance but injuries and slumps have slowed his path. The 20/20/20/20 season in 2007 was impressive, as was the career high 30 home runs that Granderson hit in 2009 for the Tigers. Even though he missed 26 games last year to injury, he still was able to amass 24 home runs. Now healthy and with the short porch in Yankee stadium, Granderson has a good chance at equaling and besting his career best power numbers. Given the Yankees lineup as well, I would not count him out. Granderson is unlikely to remain among the league leaders in bombs, but a solid 30+ home run season is definitely in order.
Albert Pujols: St. Louis Cardinals
Coming into this season, the Great Pujols hit a Ruthian 408 home runs in 10 seasons. Truly our generation’s Babe Ruth, Pujols has to be considered one of the best home run hitters of all time. With an .806 OPS, Pujols hasn’t even begun to heat up. Pujols has Holliday and a resurging Lance Berkman for protection and going into his first free agency year, expect legendary numbers by seasons end. This is Albert Pujols we are talking about…I do not have to say anything else.
Troy Tulowitzki: Colorado Rockies
Still only 26 years old, Tulowitzki is working towards becoming the best player in baseball. Missing significant time in 2008 and 2010, Tulo still has 99 career home runs going into today. Playing in the home run haven called Colorado, all Tulo has to do is to stay healthy to succeed. As this is an odd year, history is shown that he will likely play close to a full season. His career high of 32 home runs is well within reach and I can see a 40+ home run season this year. The talent and circumstances are all there…all he needs is health.
Second Place: Six Home Runs
Lance Berkman: St. Louis Cardinals
Going into the second tier of top home run hitters, we find some resurgent players, surprises and expected studs. Berkman was an uncertainty coming into season. The 35-year-old Big Puma has seen 40+ home run seasons in his career. 2010 was an injury shortened season and after getting traded to the Yankees and faltering in New York, critics began to write him off. I was a big fan of his move to St. Louis, back to the NL Central and the opportunity to play with Pujols and Holliday. Defense aside, Berkman’s 9 walks and league leading .725 SLG show that the Puma is back. With the occasional days off and prime spot in the lineup, 35 home runs is my predicted total for this superstar.
Jonny Gomes: Cincinnati Reds
The man has seem to been around forever but is actually only 30 years old. Gomes has seen several 20+ home run seasons in his career, including 18 in 2010 playing in a career high 148 games. With 18 walks, Gomes has disguised his poor .212 avg this season with a .386 OBP and .530 SLG. The owner of a lifetime .332 OBP and .463 SLG, Gomes will get a fair amount of playing time this year. While he is not the second coming of Adam Dunn, Gomes has clearly found a home in Cincinnati. His lower average and 19 strikeouts concern me at this point as he will need to become a steadier hitter to continue to receive steady playing time. Part of the surprises of this list, expect a return to form in order for Gomes. Despite lofty totals, I cannot foresee a 30 home run season coming, even though he plays in that ballpark. He is too streaky and Dusty Baker is not patient enough to stick with him.
Howie Kendrick: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Not one of my favorite players to cover, I have always soured on Kendrick for his inability to take walks. With a career high of 10 home runs (twice), low stolen bases totals and inability to consistently get on base, I have rarely seen the upside of Kendrick at the plate. This season, apparently as light switch has gone off inside his head or bat, as Kendrick is well on his way to shattering his previous power numbers and already has 10 walks on the season (last year he set a career high of 28). Does a leopard change its spots…or does a Kendrick learn patience? I will believe it when I see it. I have watched Kendrick for too long to be sold on what I have seen thus far. if he is still able to keep up this approach going into July, maybe I will cut him some slack. Until then, I expect to see Kendrick off this list by mid-June at the latest. A nice run, but a run is all this is at the end of the day in my opinion.
Russell Martin: New York Yankees
The second Yankee on our list has found a new home and new lease on life in the Bronx. Martin had a career high 19 home runs in 2007 playing for the Dodgers, earning a Silver Slugger award that year. With an OPS of 1.099, Martin is the early favorite for Comeback Player of the Year. Playing nearly every game this season and enjoying a healthy hip, Martin apparently has renewed drive and focus that was previously lacking in Los Angeles. At 28 years old and continuing our trend of young superstars on the list, all Martin really has to do is stay healthy this year. In the loaded Yankees lineup and with the short porch, Martin has a chance at 25 home runs this year.
Jorge Posada: New York Yankees
Yankee #3 is on the downside of his career, or so we are led to believe. The 39-year-old Posada is a full-time DH for the full-time in his career. While his .153 AVG and .711 OPS, his 6 home runs (of his 9 total hits) is outstanding. Too many factors are against Posada staying on the leaderboard. Health is always a concern and despite no longer playing the field, any tweaks at this point could send the elderly Posada to the DL. Further, his numbers are showing that when he is not hitting home runs, he is simply not hitting or getting on base. As Posada continues his best Rob Deer impersonation, I don’t foresee great things ahead for the future hall of famer, nearing the end of an outstanding career.
Carlos Quentin: Chicago White Sox
Both Chicago teams are represented, with the powerful Quentin starting off for the White Sox. The likely pick for MVP had he stayed healthy in 2008, Quentin has a laundry list of injuries and ailments his entire career. But when healthy, Quentin is always a home run threat. With a 1.023 OPS and having Rios, Dunn, Konerko, Ramirez and Beckham in the lineup for protection, Quentin looks to best his career high of 36 home runs in 2008. I am sitting on the fence on this one. The potential is there, but so are the injuries. Expect at least a couple of trips to the disabled list but assuming reasonable health, I will take 30+ home runs for Carlos. The Adam Dunn factor cannot be discounted, as he will prove to be great protection for Quentin all season long.
Alfonso Soriano: Chicago Cubs
A 20+ home run hitter for nine straight seasons, Soriano was written off for dead by many experts, yours truly included. 2009 was a dismal season for Soriano and although he had a steady return last year, at the age of 35 and with knee issues, little was expected from the talented Dominican. Despite his .513 SLG this season, there are several reasons to expect a continuing decline for Soriano. His BB/K rate this year is an abysmal 3/21, as his .244 AVG and .272 OBP. If you ask me, I see Soriano slowly decaying into the next Yuniesky Betancourt. Soriano is still a lock for another 20+ home run year but with the rest of his game on such a rapid decline, don’t expect much else. If the Cubs have any other options, I expect Soriano to see more time on the bench or even a trade in order. But at his salary, I cannot foresee any team taking a chance.
Mark Teixeira: New York Yankees
The last player on our list and Yankee #4, Teixeira clearly did not get the memo that we are in April and not August. A notorious slow starter, Teixeira is already up to twelve walks, .402 OBP and .621 SLG. For the 31-year-old Teixeira who has 281 career home runs, his career high of 43 home runs in 2005 could be broken. Considering that Teixeira has the ability to hit 10-12 home runs per month in the summer, I see a clear breakout year for this superstar first baseman. The Yankees went out and got him for a reason. In addition to his gold glove defense, I am smelling a possible silver slugger and MVP award in 2011.
What is the future of this list? Hard to tell without a crystal ball, as so many factors can arise. Injuries, playing time, lineup position…things can change. But a trend is clear from the early season home run leaders. Most are in the 27-30 year-old age bracket and are proven home run hitters in their careers. I expect most of the above hitters to remain on the list, with some surprises to fade away and new players to emerge. Other superstars, like Joey Votto and Adrian Gonzalez will join this list very soon. But even in the short span of three weeks into the season, it is clear that even with only a few games played, the home run hitting cream is already rising to the top.
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