Blog Archives

Jair Jurrjens: Braves Ace of the Future or Trade Candidate?

Wednesday July 20, 2011

Rob Bland (Intern- MLB Reports): Now that the trade deadline is fast approaching, teams in contention are scrambling to find the pieces they desperately need to reach the playoffs. Teams that are out of contention are scouring other teams’ minor league affiliates in search of suitable trade partners. One man who is terribly busy fielding on calls on one of his biggest talents is the GM of the Atlanta Braves, Frank Wren. Opposing GMs have coveted his ace pitcher, Jair Jurrjens over the past few years. But now that Jurrjens has developed into a solid dependable pitcher who has exceeded his potential, Wren’s phone will be ringing right up until the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline.

Why Atlanta should hold on to their ace

Jair Jurrjens is young and controllable with an inexpensive contract. He is an inning eater, and a dependable arm that will give 6+ innings per game. Jurrjens is in his fourth full season, with the key variable that many people forget is that he is only 25 years old. At the halfway mark of this season, Jurrjens has a 12-3 record with a sparkling 2.26 ERA. Jair also induces a ton of ground balls, with a GB% of 48.2. When a guy can throw strikes consistently, it makes it much easier to be successful. Three walks per nine innings is a pretty good career mark, and he has seemingly improved almost every year, as Jurrjens currently sits at a 2.10 BB/9 for 2011. A young, controllable ace that is continually improving might be something that the Braves want to hold onto. Further, the Braves should even consider giving a long-term extension to Jurrjens given what he means to the ballclub.

Why Atlanta should trade Jurrjens

Why would a contending team trade their ace, you might ask? Well, a guy like Jurrjens might be overachieving for a few reasons. First of all, the velocity on his fastball has dipped every season since his rookie campaign. His average fastball was once 93 mph, whereas it sits at 89 now. Now this could mean a couple of things, such as he has learned how to pitch and doesn’t need the velocity. However, his extra reliance on his change-up and slider; each of them up in usage about 3% over previous years, tells me that he knows his fastball isn’t quite as effective. Jurrjens doesn’t strike many guys out, and there is almost no way that he can maintain a 4.1% homerun per fly ball rate. His xFIP is exactly a run and a half higher than his ERA at 3.76, so a measure of his performance has been attributed to luck. Numbers can be sometimes be deceiving and in Jurrjens case, he might not be as good as his statistics appear to show. Sometimes its good to maximize a return when the market is at its peak and Jurjjens may very well be sitting at the top of his ceiling of potential. Otherwise, if Jurrjens does regress, he value will never be higher than it is at the moment.

Which teams could trade for Jurrjens

If the Detroit Tigers are willing to give up a ton of prospects for Ubaldo Jimenez, I believe they would do the same for Jurrjens. Same goes with the Red Sox and Yankees. Detroit has at least kicked the tires on many starting pitchers, including Derek Lowe, Aaron Harang, and Jeremy Guthrie. I see Jurrjens as an upgrade over those pitchers, so it would take a decent package to steal him away. The Rockies covet four top prospects for Jimenez, so I don’t see why the Braves wouldn’t try to get at least three top prospects for Jurrjens. He may not have the electric stuff that Ubaldo has, but he certainly has a track record of success.

Another fit to trade for Jurrjens that may fly under the radar could be the Indians. Mitch Talbot and Fausto Carmona have underperformed, and they desperately need an upgrade if they are to contend. This could cause a bidding war for Jurrjens. I can see righty Alex White, lefty Drew Pomeranz and outfielder Nick Weglarz being involved in such a deal. Prospects Jacob Turner (RHP), Andy Oliver (LHP) and Nick Castellanos (3B) may be included in a potential deal with Detroit.

In the NL, if the St. Louis Cardinals decide to make a push in the wide open Central Division, they may be looking at starting pitching help. Kyle McLellan and Jake Westbrook have both struggled, so it could be a possibility they get in the mix. Third baseman Zack Cox and starting pitcher Shelby Miller are possible candidates to be moved in such a scenario.

Verdict

Atlanta doesn’t appear to be actively shopping Jurrjens, but it would be in their best interest to at least gauge the interest of other teams. The Braves could get a return for Jurrjens that would be impossible to refuse. With some of the prospects named, the Braves could still contend, and restock their system for years to come. Until then, we expect Jurrjens to remain a Brave unless Frank Wren gets blown away a trade proposal. With the active trade winds blowing this year and numerous contending teams desperate for starting pitching help, anything is possible.

Editor’s Note: Today’s feature was prepared by our Intern, Rob Bland. Rob was selected from the many candidates who applied to write for MLB reports. Please feel free to leave comments and to welcome Rob aboard. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***

Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.

Posted in MLB Player Profiles

Comments Off on Jair Jurrjens: Braves Ace of the Future or Trade Candidate?

Tags: ace, baseball, blair, braves, cardinals, carmona, castellanos, central division, cox, east division, era, gm, groundball, guthrie, harang, indians, jimenez, july 31, Jurrjens, lowe, mclellan, mlb, oliver, orioles, pitcher, pomeranz, prospect, red sox, reds, rockies, starter, Talbot, tigers, trade deadline, ubaldo, weglarz, westbrook, wren, xfip, yankees

Pitching Keeps Tribe Alive

May 22

Posted by Jonathan Hacohen

Sunday May 22, 2011

On the Reports, we will be occasionally featuring an up-and-coming baseball writer that has come to our attention and share their work with you, the readers. Part of our mandate at MLB reports is to provide the best baseball coverage and analysis in the business. MLB reports ultimately is designed to expose our readers to the world of baseball and the stories, facts, insights and profiles behind it. In order to meet this goal, we would like to give exciting young writers the chance to showcase their talents and provide a fresh pool of ideas to our site. In today’s premier feature, we are excited to have Shane Miller as our first guest writer with his post on the Cleveland Indians. Shane’s topic was to discuss the start of the Indians season and to review the success behind it. The direction and focus of the story was up to our writer and in today’s feature, Shane takes a look at the Indians and the pitching that has been the core of the team’s success in 2011. Enjoy!

Shane Miller (Guest Writer for MLB Reports): As the second month of the Major League baseball season is coming to an end, the Cleveland Indians to many baseball fans surprise still sit atop the American League Central division.

Well today I am here to discuss how the Indians have managed to lead the AL Central for the first two months of the season. My observation has been that pitching has been the main component to their early season success. As part of this article, I will be discussing the Indians pitching staff and how they have led their team to success beyond the wildest dreams of most baseball observers.

Pitching without a doubt has been the ultimate key to the Tribe’s early season success. The Indians pitching staff has the second best ERA in the American League at 3.45 and have managed to keep the ball in the park by giving up the third fewest home runs in the AL by only giving up 28 home runs on the season. Also the Indians have also been successful in keeping runners off the base paths giving up the second fewest walks in the AL at 127. A pitching staff that manages to keeps its walks and runs down will in most cases be successful and the Indians pitching staff of 2011 is proof that good pitching is the backbone of a winning baseball club.

A great deal of credit is due to manager Manny Acta, who has done a wonderful job with all the young pitchers he manages on the Indians. Cleveland also happens to boast one of the youngest, if not the youngest starting rotations in major league baseball.

Fausto Carmona, Carlos Carrasco, Justin Masterson, Josh Tomlin and rookie Alex White make up the Cleveland Indians starting rotation. On paper, not much was expected of the Indians starting five going into the season. But success is contagious and as the season has progressed, the pitchers that few in baseball gave much credit have proven that they are for real. The fans in Cleveland are getting excited about their Indians and the team starts and ends with its rotation.

As the newly anointed staff ace, 26-year-old Justin Masterson is enjoying a break out season. So far Masterson is 5-2 with a 2.52 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 48 strike outs and 19 walks in 60.2 innings pitched. Masterson has done an excellent job this season in keeping the free passes to a minimum and keeping the ball in the park by only allowing one home run all year. At his current pace, Masterson is a likely 2011 all-star candidate and is finally fulfilling the hype that surrounded him from the time he came up with Boston as a rookie.

Tomlin is another pitcher who is not getting enough recognition for the amazing season he has put together so far in Cleveland. Looking at Tomlin’s stats, he is 5-1 with a 2.56 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, with 27 strike outs and nine walks in 52.2 innings pitched. The only red flag that I could find with Tomlin is that he has given up eight home runs this season. The number of long balls needs to go down as he only gave up 10 home runs in 73 innings pitched last season.

Another starter of note, the rookie White has pitched very good so far this season in the three games that he has started. White has compiled a record of 1-0, 3.60 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 13 strike outs and nine walks in 15 innings pitched. Like I indicated with Tomlin, White also has an issue with long balls by giving up three home runs in 15 innings pitched so far. This means that White is averaging a home run every five innings pitched. In my opinion, if White can keep the ball in the park he will one day become an outstanding pitcher. (*Editor’s note: at time of publishing White has been placed on the DL by the Indians with a finger injury. While the severity is unknown, White could be lost for the season by the Indians. As adversity tests character, the Indians rotation will be put to the test if White is lost to the team for any kind of extended period.*)

With two of the five starting pitchers for the Indians enjoying breakout seasons and a rookie putting up great numbers in three starts, no wonder the Indians are in first place and have a record of 27-15. The Indians bullpen has also been another source of strength of the Indians team overall. The Indians bullpen is made up of Frank Herrmann, Joe Smith, Vinne Pestano, Tony Sipp, Chad Durbin, Rafael Perez and closer Chris Perez. While again unimpressive on paper to start the year, the Indians relief corps has been lights out all year and one of the best in the game.

The closer, Chris Perez has been very good for the Tribe this season, going 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 11 saves, 11 strike outs and 10 walks in 18 innings pitched. The walk totals are very high and if Perez wishes to remain a closer long-term he needs to cut down on those walks. He is currently averaging six walks per nine innings and that needs to be at least cut in half for him to be able to remain successful.

The setup man Rafael Perez has been astounding this season with a record of 2-1 with a 1.20 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 11 strike outs and six walks in 15 innings pitched. Rafael is one of the reasons why Cleveland has one of the best bullpens in the MLB and is sneaking up behind Chris Perez to one day take the closers role away from him. If Rafael can continue pitching like he has this season, he could definitely be the closer by season’s end if and when Chris falters. Rookie middle reliever Pestano is also having a great year in the Indians pen with a 1-0 record, 1.65 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 18 strike outs and six walks in 16.1 innings pitched. Pestano has been amazing this year with a very strong 9.9 strike outs per nine innings.

Pestano has done an excellent job in limiting walks and home runs given up and has only allowed three earned runs all season. The Indians obviously have amazing pitching from the starting rotation all the way to the deepest part of their bullpen. Without some of these rookie standouts or career years the Indians might not be in this position to possibly contend in historically one of the deepest divisions in baseball. Time will tell where this team is headed but if the start of the year is any indication, the Indians will be players in the AL Central in 2011 and possibly for many years to come.