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Ask the Reports: Saturday November 19th

Saturday November 19, 2011

Jonathan Hacohen: Ask the Reports is back! After some thought and re-branding: we have decided to drop the E-mailbag moniker and to keep this section as “Ask the Reports”, which will appear every weekend. E-mails is but one form you can reach MLB reports. You can follow us on Twitter and tweet and direct message your questions and comments. You can “Like” us on Facebook and write on our wall. You can also leave all questions and comments at the end of each article and page on the website. With social media exploding as it has, we are truly connected in so many ways.

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Let’s get to your questions:

Q: If a modern-day MLB pitcher won 20 games for 20 seasons, he would still be 111 wins short of Cy Young’s win record.. From Eric, LA

A: Great comment. A true reflection on the evolution of the game. Let’s start by taking a look at the career of Cy Young:

Denton True Young (aka Cy Young). Born March 29, 1867 in Ohio. Threw right-handed, stood 6’2″ and weighed 210 pounds. He played for 22 seasons: 1890-1911. He finished his career with a 511-316 lifetime record. He actually had 5 seasons of 30+ wins. 36 in 1892 and 35 in 1895 being the career highs. The man pitched in 906 games, starting 815 of them. He threw 7356 career innings. Ponder that one for a minute. He had 5 seasons of 400 + innings and a dozen more seasons of 300-399 innings. 17 years of 300+ innings pitched. If a modern-day pitcher were to pitch 200 innings per year for 20 years, he would reach 4000 innings. About half of Cy Young. That says a lot to me. In the modern age, the only person that will come close to pitching those kind of innings was Nolan Ryan. The Ryan Express pitched for 27 seasons. 807 games, 773 starts. 5386 innings pitched. Career record: 324-292. So to win as many games as Cy Young, you would need to win 25 games per year for 20 years. An impossible feat in today’s modern game. A pitcher would need to start 35-40 games and pitch 300-400 innings per year. With closers, middle relievers and the stats of MLB bullpens, teams will not allow their starters to go deep into all those ballgames. A “quality” start is 6 innings pitched. At 30+ starts per year, most starters today are lucky to crack 200 innings. Without the starts and innings, starting pitchers have less and less chances to stay deep in games to win. Plus pitchers need offensive support and health to stay on the field and have a chance to gain wins. Teams have 5-man rotations and also skip or push back starts during the season. We will never see another Cy Young. Not the way baseball is played today.

Q: What do you think Pat Burrell will do after he retires? Fans of Pat Burrell

A: I could see Burrell taking time off from the game. Counting his dollars and maybe taking in a party or two (rumor has it that he is somewhat of a ladies’ man…). But given his quality eye at the plate with pop, Burrell clearly knew a thing or two about hitting in his day. Almost 300 home runs and 1000 walks do not happen by accident. When Pat the Bat is ready to return to the game, he will join the Giants or Phillies likely as a minor league hitting instructor, or full-time hitting coach. If he can show he can coach in the minors, you could see him as a hitting coach or 1st base coach one day in the major leagues. Pat the Bat has a future in baseball- provided that he can teach and work well with the kids in helping them develop their abilities at the plate.

Q: With 8 years and $160 Million, is Matt Kemp worth Manny Money or did L.A. pay a $30 Million premium to keep him off the open market next year? Or both? From Jason

A: They did call Matt Kemp “Baby Manny” for a reason. The Bison has always been highly touted coming up with the Dodgers. For the last 2 seasons going into this year, some of that promise was starting to show. Campaigns with 26 and 28 home runs respectively will catch people’s eyes. Kemp looked like a .290 hitter with 20+ home run pop. Pretty good- but not a superstar. Then in 2011, Kemp simply exploded. He led the league with 39 home runs and 126 RBIs, a difficult feat considering he had little support in the lineup and played his home games in a pitcher’s park. With a .324 average, we nearly had a triple crown winner. Kemp had a .399 OBP and .586 SLG. Superstar numbers. I am torn in analyzing him. He was a year away from free agency. Is he worth $20 Million per year for 8 years? That is all relative. Here is how I can best put it: what if Kemp would have hit .290, with 25 home runs with 90 runs and 90 RBIs in 2012 and hit free agency? Would he have received the same deal? Very likely. At that point would the Yankees or Red Sox given him 7 years and $140 million to sign? Carl Crawford got that same deal last year. At 28 years of age, Kemp has shown good health and appears to be in great shape. To say he is able to keep this pace until 35-years of age is not a stretch. At worst, Kemp would have landed $15 million per season for 7 years, a total of $105 million. So my thoughts are that the Dodgers would have needed to pay him $20 million for 2012 regardless. By signing him early, they may have overpaid by $35 million over the life of the deal. Or Kemp could have signed for $5 million per season on the open market (if no other alternatives) and cost an additional $35 million. In a perfect world, it would have been nice to have seen more 2011-type seasons from Kemp before handing him this type of contract. But given his fairly strong track record, health and young age, the Dodgers needed to lock him up now or risk very much losing him after 2012? Did they overpay? Not much by free agency standards. Even if they overpaid by $30 million over the life of the contract, as long as Kemp continues to stay healthy and produce great to strong numbers, this was a deal that had to get done. With the ownership turmoil and inability to attract and keep key players, this signing sends a message that the Dodgers are “back in business.” Exactly what the fans want to hear.

Q: Thoughts on Cespedes and Darvish? Any chance Blue Jays sign ’em? From Thomas

A: There are approximately fans from 30 MLB teams that are hoping their teams will make a push for the 2 likely biggest international free agents. Yu Darvish from Japan and Yoennis Cespedes from Cuba. While Darvish will need to be posted and bid upon, Cespedes once declared would be free to sign with any team. At 26-years of Cespedes is reported to be major league ready. Viewers of his YouTube video are excited at his abilities at the plate. He will reportedly cost in the $50 million range to sign. Darvish, at 25-years of age, is one of the most highly touted pitchers ever to come from Japan. If he is posted (which is still a big-if at this stage), Darvish is likely to cost north of $100 million (with the posting fee) to sign. Will the Jays sign either or both? My answer: no. Not because the team is not competitive. Far from it. But because they will not throw a lot of money on risky propositions. Neither player has played a single inning of Major League Ball. No matter how each has fared competitively to-date, few could predict how their games will translate to the major leagues. The Jays are already stacked in the oufield, with Bautista, Rasmus, Snider and Thames to choose from. Edwin Encarnacion is even being tried out in the outfield in winterball. Anthony Gose is also a young hot-shot prospect that will be landing in Toronto soon. The Jays do not have a strong need for an outfielder and certainly will not want to devote a large portion of their budget to an unknown like Cespedes. Especially given the mixed track record of Cuban hitters thus far in the majors. The Jays’ budget would be better spent on pitching. But to pay $50 million to win the Darvish posting and then sign him for another $50 million, that could translate to $20 million per season for 5 seasons. That is insanity money. At that point, I would rather sign C.J. Wilson for 5-years $100 million. A far more certain return. The Jays will pick up a strong DH bat this offseason, perhaps a new first baseman and 1-2 new starting pitchers. They will be shopping. But no mail-order-players are likely coming anytime soon to Toronto.

Final Q: Psychology professor asked what our biggest stressors in life are. I said Brandon Inge still being a Tiger. Everyone looked at me weird. From Ashley

A: Time to change schools? If any of your classmates are baseball fans, they must not watch the Tigers very often or simply fail to grasp the horrible play of Inge. I rarely use the word “hate”. But as a Tigers follower (yes…they are my team), I do not have the time of day for Inge. The team has him signed for 1 more season at $5.5 million and a team option for $6 million in 2013 or a $500K buyout. Expect the buyout. I get that he is a great team guy, and blah blah blah. In 144 games in 2010, he hit .247 with 13 home runs. Looking at his numbers, he had a great year in 2006 and 2009. That is it. But yet the Tigers have him signed through to 2012. Last year, Inge hit .197 with 3 home runs and earned himself a trip back to the minors. At 34-years of age. He is done. Done as dinner. Stick the fork in him. One of the most gifted defensive players that I have ever watched, he could do it all with the glove. Perhaps he sticks around as a late-inning defensive replacement. He is a good emergency catcher and strong third baseman. But his career as a full-time player is over. If the Tigers are prepared to leave him on the bench and mentor the young players, I am all for it. But otherwise, they need to hang onto Ramon Santiago and simply let the Inge-era end. Brandon Inge has cool tattoos and has provided some spark hits through his career. Its time for the Tigers to thank him for his contributions and move on. Thank you Ashley for understanding. I feel your pain.

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Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen)

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Carlos Beltran to the Giants: Mets Likely to Trade Slugger to San Fran

Jul 20

Posted by Jonathan Hacohen

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Tuesday July 19, 2011

MLB reports: The MLB rumor mill is working overtime as the non-waiver trade deadline of July 31st quickly approaches. With less than two weeks to go, the speculation is heating up as to which players will be changing uniforms. Francisco Rodriguez is already a Brewer and Jeff Keppinger was just traded to the Giants. But rumors persist that the Mets and Giants are not finished with their activity. With both superstars Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran eligible for free agency at the end of the season, talk is that one or both players will be moved out of New York. With the possibility of the Mets trying to retain Reyes, the most likely scenario is Carlos Beltran changing addresses. At the center of the speculation is the San Francisco Giants. The defending World Series champions have been simply atrocious this year offensively. With their cleanup hitter Buster Posey out for the season, the team cannot afford to miss out on the Carlos Beltran sweepstakes.

The Giants were very fortunate to win the World Series last year. The playoffs are a tough road and requires the perseverance normally of a balanced team to make it to the end. The Giants, while solid in the pitching department, were essentially using smoke and mirrors to score runs last year. The team relied on the likes of Aubrey Huff, Cody Ross and Freddy Sanchez on offense. While useful role players, these players are not the big sluggers that are supposed to win championships. Now with Buster Posey out, the Giants are forced to rely on Eli Whiteside, Miguel Tejada, Aaron Rowand, Pat Burrell and company to score the team’s runs. Possessing one of the best, if not the best pitching staff in baseball, the Giants can ill-afford to limit itself offensively and essentially waste such strong pitching. To defend its championship, the Giants will have no choice but to beef up their offense.

Carlos Beltran has been one of the most consistent hitters in the game over the course of his career. Taking a look at his numbers, we see a consistently high level of production:

Year	Tm	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	SB	BA
1998	KCR	58	12	16	0	7	3	.276
1999	KCR	663	112	194	22	108	27	.293
2000	KCR	372	49	92	7	44	13	.247
2001	KCR	617	106	189	24	101	31	.306
2002	KCR	637	114	174	29	105	35	.273
2003	KCR	521	102	160	26	100	41	.307
2004	TOT	599	121	160	38	104	42	.267
2004	KCR	266	51	74	15	51	14	.278
2004	HOU	333	70	86	23	53	28	.258
2005	NYM	582	83	155	16	78	17	.266
2006	NYM	510	127	140	41	116	18	.275
2007	NYM	554	93	153	33	112	23	.276
2008	NYM	606	116	172	27	112	25	.284
2009	NYM	308	50	100	10	48	11	.325
2010	NYM	220	21	56	7	27	3	.255
2011	NYM	328	54	94	14	59	3	.287
14 Seasons		6575	1160	1855	294	1121	292	.282
162 Game Avg.		621	110	175	28	106	28	.282

KCR (7 yrs)		3134	546	899	123	516	164	.287
NYM (7 yrs)		3108	544	870	148	552	100	.280
HOU (1 yr)		333	70	86	23	53	28	.258

NL (8 yrs)		3441	614	956	171	605	128	.278
AL (7 yrs)		3134	546	899	123	516	164	.287

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table

His resume speaks for itself. Beltran is a 1999 AL Rookie of the Year. He has won four Gold Gloves for his defensive work in the outfield. He won two silver slugger awards. A lifetime .282 AVG, .360 OBP and .495 SLG. In 2004 he hit the magical 30/30 mark (30 home runs, 30 stolen bases), and was actually two home runs short of 40/40. For the most part, Beltran in his prime could do it all. Hit home runs, hit for average, steal bases, catch and throw the ball like few players could. One of the few true five-tool players in the game. The aberrations we find in Beltran’s statistics were the last two years. Due to various injuries, particularly knee woes, Carlos Beltran was forced to miss much of the last two seasons and saw his production sharply decline. Now healthy and extremely motivated, Beltran has come back in a big way.

Beltran played in his sixth All-Star game this year in Arizona. While he rarely steals bases these days, the rest of Beltran’s game has returned as shown by his numbers. The only issue surrounding Beltran is whether his knee will hold up for the rest of the season and into the playoffs. From there, a team will need to determine his long-term health and abilities in awarding him a free agent contract. But from all indications, Beltran is a player that can still play ball at the highest level when healthy. An ideal fit for the Giants that lineup that desperately needs run production.

How bad has the Giants offense been in 2011? Going into tonight, the Giants as a team are hitting .243, with a .309 OBP and .363 SLG. The team has collectively hit 63 home runs and scored 356 runs. Yet somehow the team continues to sit in first place in the NL West, 3.5 games ahead of the Diamondbacks. If not for Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Madison Bumgarner, Ryan Vogelsong, Brian Wilson and the rest of the Giants pitching staff, the Giants would be in the basement of the division. The run of the Giants over the past two seasons has been incredible, but clearly linked to its pitching. To support its pitchers and put runs on the board, the Giants have to step up and beef up its offense. While Jeff Keppinger is a useful player, he will not be enough to get the job done. Rather, the Giants need to acquire a bomber, the way the Cardinals acquired Matt Holliday a couple of years ago in their playoff run. Or closer to home, when the Astros acquired Carlos Beltran in 2004. Beltran hit an incredible 8 home runs during the Astros playoff drive that year. Coincidentally, Beltran was an impending free agent that year as well. Fast forward to 2011 and the very same Carlos Beltran is available. Having a fantastic campaign, Beltran in 2011 has hit .287 to-date, with 14 home runs, league leading 28 doubles, with a .381 OBP and .512 SLG. Again during a free agency year. Definite playoff calibre numbers and a perfect fit out west in San Francisco.

The Giants and Carlos Beltran are well suited for one another. San Francisco needs a strong cleanup hitter. Carlos Beltran wants to compete for a World Series championship and boost his free agency stock for one more prime contract. The odds of getting a ring don’t get any better than joining the defending world champions. Some experts have speculated that Beltran may not waive his no-trade protection to join the Giants. I am not buying that theory. The Giants are a terrific organization to play for, with highly regarded management, a fantastic ballpark in a beautiful city, and are one of baseball’s most historical and treasured teams. Beltran would look fantastic in a Giants uniform. What better way to showcase his abilities and earn his last free agency contract than by playing for a contender and fighting for a World Series championship.

Remember 1994, the year that Beltran was traded from Kansas City to Houston and played like a man possessed in nearly single-handedly leading the Astros to the World Series. That performance, combined with his numbers to-date, earned Beltran that off-season a 7-year, $119 million contract from the Mets. Now Beltran is on the cusp of free agency again and has the potential to “earn his pay” so to speak with the Giants in the same manner that he did with the Astros in 1994. With Scott Boras as his agent, Beltran will surely receive the advice that playoff performance equals free agency dollars.

The Giants will have a choice in making a pitch to the Mets for Carlos Beltran. They will either have to absorb the majority of the contract and provide fairly decent prospects, or have the Mets absorb a large chunk of money and offer 1-2 elite prospects in return. The Giants are well stocked in the minors and have excellent pitching at the major league level. The Mets may request Jonathan Sanchez off the major league roster or a combination of minor leaguers from the farm. Outfielder Thomas Neal and pitcher Zack Wheeler could be on the Mets wish-list. Or perhaps the Giants will be able to give up a package of lower level prospects and not lose their top prospects and major league level. The decision will boil down to the money involved and players offered by other teams in trade packages.

At the end of the day, much like the Yankees must acquire Ubaldo Jimenez from the Rockies (see our recent feature), the Giants have no choice but to trade for Carlos Beltran. The Yankees cannot afford to waste their superior offense without enough top-level pitching and the Giants in turn, need to surround their talented pitching staff with consistent run production. It is a lot of pressure to have a team win 2-1, 3-1 games night-in and night-out. Carlos Beltran has proven that he can carry a team on his back when he is on his game. Well, in 2011 he is definitely playing at his highest level in years. Beltran needs the Giants for his next contract and a chance for a ring, while the Giants need his bat and glove to increase their chances of a championship. The perfect marriage, expect Beltran to be a Giant by the end of July. This acquisition makes too much sense for the Giants and Brian Sabean will continue to stock his team on route to a possible back-to-back World Series run for the Giants. Carlos Beltran to the Giants. Not a question of if, just a question of when.

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