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Ask the Reports: Sunday January 1st, 2012
Sunday January 1, 2012
Jonathan Hacohen: Posted every Weekend: Your top baseball questions from the past week are answered. E-mail all questions to mlbreports@gmail.com, message us on Twitter and post on our Facebook Wall!
Let’s get to your top questions of the week:
Q: With just 7 weeks until spring training, which teams are looking really good for the 2012 season? Heather
MLB reports: Great question Heather. I presume you mean which teams are playoff contenders for 2012. At this point, I really like the Rays, Tigers, Angels and Rangers in the AL. These teams have the best balanced rosters that are built to make it to the playoffs. In the NL, it’s the Phillies, Reds, Dbacks and Braves (maybe Cards). Those are the strongest 8 teams that I am projecting for playoff positions at this point. There will be many improved teams to keep an eye on. The Jays continue to be on the rise in Toronto. The Royals are slowly preparing to make their move. I like what the Nationals are building in Washington. The Pirates are slowly putting together a nice stable of young prospects. The Padres are going to be a serious force very soon, perhaps as soon as this year. The common theme is good pitching and depth within the lineup. The above teams are the ones that are getting it right in my book.
Q: Will the Baseball Writers snub Tim Raines once again? David
MLB reports: Raines since 2008 has his percentage of votes rise from 24% to 37.5%. This is a tough one for the voters. I have studied the numbers and I don’t give Raines a vote. He was very good…but not Hall of Fame good in my book. Ultimately Raines will get in, as he is more deserving that say Jim Rice in my opinion. But he is one of those slow candidates that will climb every year and get to 75% in the last couple of years of eligibility. Raines is a fringe hall of fame candidate and it shows in his vote totals. Keep in mind it is the hall of fame, not the hall of very good. If we are going to put only the best of the best in the hall, Raines should not be in. But considering the track records of some recent inductees, then yes, Raines should be in. But don’t expect it anytime soon and definitely not in 2012. Raines will have to play the waiting game like many other fringe candidates.
Q: Any chance the Mets sign Prince Fielder? I know- I doubt the money is there, but still… I’d also like to think they can win the WS… Jon
MLB reports: All I have to say is…huh? You must really love your Mets, but you need to get a reality check on their chances. To answer your questions: firstly, no chance the Mets get Prince Fielder. For so many reasons. They cannot afford him. Given the Wilpon financial issues and the fact that the team is looking for a minority owner for a bailout, the team cannot take on Fielder’s salary. All the money in the budget has already been spent, so the team will go with Ike Davis again at first base. Davis has been a pleasant surprise and should continue to develop. Secondly, no way that Prince will want to go to the Mets. The team is not a contender and has too many black eyes from an image perspective. Prince would not want to get caught in the Mets mess right now. Plus, even with the outfield dimensions changing, I doubt Prince will want to play in that ballpark. As far as winning the World Series, pop in a DVD and watch the glory year of 1986. It should give you some comfort until the team returns back to glory, sometime in the next 5-10 years. I don’t mean to be hard on you Jon, but sometimes in baseball the fans need some tough love. I am being honest because I care. Don’t stop supporting your Mets: just be realistic so that you are not in for a letdown. Expect nothing and you will have your expectations exceeded!!!
Q: What’s your opinion on how my Kansas City Royals will fair this season? Michael
MLB reports: Better than many people think Michael. The Royals will not make the playoffs, but they will be a .500 squad. The hitting is really coming together and could get the boost of Wil Myers in mid-2012 if he gets the call. Things are on the rise in Kansas City. The Royals will be finishing in 3rd place, behind the Tigers and Indians. I could even see a 2nd place finish if everything falls into place. The team just has so much talent at every position, with the rotation being the only question mark for me. Perez, Butler, Hosmer, Giavotella, Escobar, Moustakas, Gordon, Cain and Francoeur. A bullpen stacked by Soria, Broxton, Crow, Collins, Mijares, Wood and Holland. On the field and in the pen, the Royals have the power to succeed. The rotation is a little more of a patchwork job. The team needs Danny Duffy to put it together and top pitching prospect John Lamb to return to form after a lost year to injury. I see 2013-2015 being the Royals time to shine. But with the team set to host the All-Star game this coming year, they should have an exciting product on the field. This will not be their year, but the first real step towards respectability. Enjoy this young team, if nothing else they will be fun to watch.
Final Question: What are the chances of any of these guys coming to Boston: Oswalt(P) Garza(P) Saunders(P) Spilborghs(RF) Quentin(RF)? Rick
MLB reports: Great question Rick. Fans are wondering what the Red Sox have up their sleeve. Unfortunately, I don’t think you will like the response on this one. Matt Garza comes at a big price of prospects that the Red Sox will not likely pay. Plus considering how long it took for Theo to make the jump to the Cubs and the negotiation of compensation and movement of front office staff, I don’t see the teams matching up well for a trade. Roy Oswalt will have many options considering that he will only get a 1-2 year deal. I don’t think he will be that excited to play in Boston. I see him more likely ending up back in the NL, or going to Texas or the Jays. Carlos Quentin is already in San Diego and will be the team’s new cleanup man. A native son, Quentin could stay long-term in San Diego. Whether the BoSox get Ryan Spilborghs or not is irrelevant for me. He just doesn’t excite me as a player with much potential. I could see Joe Saunders heading to Boston as a middle of the rotation starter. He would be an innings eater more than anything, not a real impact guy. It looks to me like the BoSox are going with what they have for the most part, with only minor tweaks coming. The team has the talent, so the bigger question is how the players respond to new manager Bobby Valentine. How Bobby V gets his players prepared and focused will decide if the BoSox can return to their glory days.
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Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen)
Will Jorge Posada and Jason Varitek Retire?
Sunday December 4th, 2011
Sam Evans: Between these two catchers, they have six World Series rings, eight All-Star selections, and nearly five hundred home runs. There is no question that Jorge Posada and Jason Varitek were two of the best catchers in the last ten years, if not major league history. Unfortunately, the last two years everything has changed for both of them. Now, with the organizations they both have spent their whole respective careers nudging them out the door, one has to wonder what will be the next chapter for these two superstars.
Jason Varitek: Tek has always been a step below Jorge Posada. He 
is recognized as a great game caller, but he is not an especially strong offensive catcher. At Varitek’s peak in 2004, he batted .296 with 18 home runs and a .390 OBP. He helped lead the Red Sox to their first World Series in eighty-six years.
In 2008, Varitek really fell off a cliff in terms of offensive production. In the following years, he wouldn’t be able to get back to what he once was. I think the Red Sox have only kept him around the last three years because he is a great veteran in the clubhouse and out of loyalty and respect.
Varitek is now 39 years old, and without a contract. In 2010, Varitek was signed by the Red Sox for one year at $2 million. This offseason, he should be looking for a similar contract where he can mentor and back up a young catcher. I think the perfect team for Varitek is the Houston Astros. Houston has no catchers over twenty-five, with none of the catchers on their roster being highly rated. If Varitek could just come to Houston on a one-year deal and call two to three games a week, I think that would be the best scenario for both sides.
There is always the chance that Varitek will want to retire as a Red Sox and as a result, he could retire this offseason. As for Varitek’s chance at the Hall of Fame, I don’t really think he has a strong enough case. He never dominated the field, and he was never the best player at his position. He will be remembered for helping Boston reverse the curse but not as a Hall-of-Famer.
Jorge Posada: Posada certainly had a more successful career than Varitek. He won four World Series, and helped define Yankees baseball over the last decade.
Posada has 275 career home runs, but he has never hit more than thirty in one season. His career batting average, .246, is not very impressive. Posada has always had the power, he is just missing a lot of other skills. He is not known as a great defensive catcher, as was shown when the Yankees decided to move Posada to being their everyday DH for the 2011 season.
2011 turned out to be a pretty rough season for Posada. In May, Posada asked for a day off against the Red Sox. In any normal baseball city, this wouldn’t be a big deal. However, in New York, things are different. Posada ended up apologizing and GM Brian Cashman had to write a press release. Posada finished 2011 with a .235 BA, .309 wOBA, and 14 home runs.The highlight of his year was in the ALDS where Posada was 6 for 14 with a .579 OBP.
I would be surprised if the Yankees plan on having Posada back as their starting DH for next year. They can’t risk weakening their team just to make sure a player’s feelings don’t get hurt. Every member of the Yankees core-four are seeing their career come to a slow end. I am curious to see if Posada does decide to keep playing baseball in 2012, whether he chooses to market himself as a DH or a catcher.
Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated wrote that Posada will play baseball next year if he finds the right opportunity and the Marlins are a possible suitor. I don’t see Posada providing much on-field value, but if the Marlins are looking for a veteran who knows how to win, Posada would be a perfect match.
Similar to Varitek, Posada just didn’t have a strong enough career to make the Hall of Fame. He will be remembered as a great person, and one of the Core Four that defined this new age of Yankee baseball. I just don’t see Posada getting enough support from BBWAA members who will focus more on stats, rather than intangibles.
Neither of these players are going to have an easy end to their careers. Both are in the last days of professional baseball and have some important decisions to make. Neither Varitek nor Posada will ever be forgotten for their character and contributions to their franchises. Regardless of whether either one makes the hall of fame, both have enjoyed careers to be proud of and that few other players could ever imagine possible.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Sam Evans. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Sam on Twitter***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
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The Hunt for Red Sox October
September 14, 2011
Rob Bland (Baseball Writer – MLB reports): Red Sox Nation is panicking. On September 1, the Boston Red Sox held a 9 game lead over the Tampa Bay Rays. Today, on September 13, they sit only 3 games ahead. Since then, the Red Sox have gone 2-9, while Tampa has gone 8-3. Many people believe that Tampa Bay has the pitching to get the job done. Led by “Big Game” James Shields and David Price, they have a rotation that has been one of the top in the league all season. As a team, they have given up the least amount of hits by 80 in the American League. Their team ERA is also tops in the American League at 3.56.
Boston is limping into the end of the season, with 3 of their 5 opening week starters injured in some fashion in the last month. Jon Lester has been every bit of the ace the Red Sox need him to be, with a 15-7 record and 3.07 ERA. However, when the Sox leaned on him on September 11 against Tampa, he lasted only 4 innings, giving up 4 runs on 8 hits and 3 walks. John Lackey has been awful this year. I cringe when I look at his stats. 6.30 ERA, 180 hits in 144 innings, and 18 hit batsmen to lead the league. How has he won 12 games? Buchholz was solid before going on the disable list, giving up only 76 hits in 82 2/3 innings, but hasn’t pitched since June 16. It is believed he could be back as soon as next week, but in a limited bullpen role at best, so his impact won’t be felt much. Josh Beckett has been great this year as well, but rolled his ankle in the 4th inning of his last start. At one point, after throwing a complete game, 1 hit shutout on June 15, his ERA sat at 1.86. He is currently 12-5 with a 2.49 ERA, and a WHIP of 0.985. Daisuke Matsuzaka was a bust this year and required Tommy John Surgery in June. In his place is knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, who currently sits at 200 wins on his career. Wakefield hasn’t made it look pretty this year, but has put in 139 2/3 valuable innings to date.
Tampa Bay boasts one of the top rotations in baseball, with Opening Day starter David Price pitching very solid, without much run support. He has a 12-12 record but his ERA is 3.40 and has reached the 200 strikeout plateau for the first time in his young career. Big Game James doesn’t need much of an introduction, as his 11 complete games and 4 shutouts lead the MLB. He has already thrown 226 innings, a career high, with 210 strikeouts, also a career high. Wade Davis has thrown 165 soli
d innings as a follow-up to being 4th in Rookie of the Year balloting last season. Jeff Niemann is really blossoming into a dependable middle of the rotation pitcher, going 10-7 with a 3.97 ERA in 129 innings. He doesn’t strike out a ton of hitters, but doesn’t walk many either, shown by his 3 K/BB ratio. One of the frontrunners for AL Rookie of the Year is Jeremy Hellickson, who has been pretty much lights out all year. With a 2.96 ERA and only giving up 135 hits in 170 innings, he will surely garner some votes. The one wild card that the Rays hold, however, is Matt Moore. Moore was just called up to fill a role similar to David Price in 2008. He will be electric out of the bullpen after a minor league season that will rank him in the top 5 of all prospects going into next season.
Boston’s offense is abound with potential MVP’s and great hitters. 1 through 9, the Red Sox boast one of the best lineups I can remember. Jacoby Ellsbury may win the MVP, but he will have to go through Dustin Pedroia and Adrian Gonzalez first. Also, David Ortiz is again proving the naysayers wrong, as he is hitting .313 with 29 home runs and 92 RBI. When a player of JD Drew’s caliber can go on the disabled list and be replaced with Josh Reddick, who is hitting .298 and slugging .491 in 250 plate appearances, it gives a lot of confidence to a pitching staff. Catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia finally seems like the player who the Atlanta Braves envisioned when they drafted him in the 1st round in 2003. Jason Varitek is also enjoying a fine season as a backup to Saltalamacchia, hitting 11 home runs in only 234 plate appearances. This offense is one that no team will want to face in the final weeks of the season or the playoffs if they reach that far.
Tampa Bay may not have the “sexy” offensive players that the Red Sox do, but they have some players having mighty fine seasons. Ben Zobrist has overlooked his mediocre 2010 season, and has put up numbers closer to his breakout 2009. Although he probably won’t ever match that season, his 45 doubles lead the American League, and has a very good OPS of .820. Casey Kotchman is still an on-base machine with little pop from first base. He has hit at a .313 clip with a .382 on-base percentage, setting the table for the big run producers. Evan Longoria may be having a down year by his standards, but most teams would be happy with a third baseman hitting 25 home runs and slugging .818. Through May, Matt Joyce was an early favorite for AL MVP, but really tapered off in June and July, before turning it back up in the last month. His .843 OPS leads the team, and he also has 12 stolen bases. BJ Upton continues to be a low average, high power type of hitter, with 20 home runs and 27 stolen bases while hitting just .234. The worst position in terms of offensive production has been shortstop, where Reid Brignac and Sean Rodriguez have handled most of the duties. The Rays’ high-tempo style of offense has wreaked havoc on opposing batteries, as they have stolen 130 bases, good for third in the American League.
Both teams have completely different styles and techniques, but are successful in their own ways. With the Rays aggressive style, and the Red Sox more reliant on taking pitches and making pitchers work, getting deep into bullpens early, this could be a battle to the bitter end. The schedules they play the rest of the way will also dictate who is more likely to win the race for the Wild Card.
Boston:
1 vs Toronto
4 vs Tampa Bay
7 vs Baltimore
3 vs New York
Tampa Bay:
1 vs Baltimore
4 vs Boston
7 vs New York
3 vs Toronto
It is quite evident that Boston has a much easier schedule, and should win a fair number of them. The Red Sox have gone 11-4 against the Yankees this year also. Tampa has gone 5-6 against the Yankees, whom they see 7 more times. Boston gets Baltimore 7 more times, and have beaten them 8 out of 11 games so far. The pivotal series of all will be this weekend when the two teams square off against one another. The game of the weekend may be on Friday September 16, where James Shields faces off against Josh Beckett.
I believe that Tampa Bay will come within a game or two, but the schedule differences give Boston a HUGE advantage. The Red Sox 18-6 drubbing of the Blue Jays on Tuesday will be a catalyst for the team over the next two weeks, where they will produce runs and pitch just well enough to get into the postseason.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Rob Bland. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan onFacebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
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