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Jason Heyward: What Happened to the Braves Slugger in 2011?
Sunday January 15, 2012
Sam Evans: 2011 was a surprisingly rough year for Braves outfielder Jason Heyward. The former number one prospect struggled making solid contact and he ended up missing thirty-four games in the year. In order for the Braves to compete in 2012, they will need a healthy Heyward to get back to the level he was at in 2010.
Simply put, Jason Heyward was a monster during the ’10 campaign. During that preseason, there had been so much hype made about the consensus number one prospect in baseball. From hitting a 471 foot homer in his first at-bat, to finishing with 5.1 WAR, Heyward was everything Braves fans could have hoped for… and more.
Heading into the 2011 season, the Braves were expecting an improvmeent from Heyward in his second full season. Heyward didn’t end up having a great year. When he was hurt, he couldn’t help his team. But even when he was healthy, he still struggled.
Heyward hit .192 against lefties in 104 plate appearances. The “J-Hey Kid” missed parts of the season due to issues with his right shoulder and in particular, his sore rotator cuff. Heyward finished with a .227 BA and only fourteen home runs. He could have another mediocre season in 2012, but the feeling is that Heyward will likely bounce back.
Recently, Braves GM Frank Wren was quoted as saying that Heyward will not be guaranteed a starting job in 2012. This is just crazy talk in my opinion. Despite how bad his 2011 season turned out, Heyward was a superstar up until then. Jason Heyward is still only 22 and has room to improve. But he needs major league playing time. Wren could have been just keeping his options open or trying to motivate his young player in some way. In reality though, it was not a very smart quote coming from a usually intelligent General Manager.
2012 will be a career defining year for Jason Heyward. He could continue along his 2011 path, and lead us all to wonder what happened to the clutch, young prospect we all once fell in love with. Or in the alternative, Heyward could return to his old self and lead the Braves back to the playoffs. Above all, we have to remember Heyward is only 22-years old. He is so far ahead of most players his age. So he has plenty of time to reach his full potential.
**Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Sam Evans. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Sam on Twitter***
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Adrian Beltre is Playing Himself into Hall Of Fame Consideration
Monday January 9, 2012
Doug Booth- Baseball Writer: With today being the official day the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) to finalize the 2012 Baseball Hall Of Fame inductees, I thought some more about Adrian Beltre as a potential candidate when he is finished playing the game. At first glance, Beltre would not seem like a viable candidate but I intend to plead his case for him. Adrian Beltre was signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers while he was playing high school baseball at the age of fifteen. The Los Angeles Dodgers would later be suspended for a year from the Dominican Republic when this was revealed. However, this was a minor price to pay for securing such a great prospect. Beltre played in the Los Angeles Dodgers baseball Academy in his own country before heading to the minor leagues. His minor league career was short-lived as he was called up as a teenager in 1998 at the age of 19. Beltre struggled with Major League pitching that year hitting .215, but showed some power with 7 HRs and 22 RBIs in only 195 AB. Beltre won the third base position out of training camp in 1999 and never looked back. Beltre then enjoyed 5 solid seasons with the Los Angeles Dodgers, providing great defense and above average power. It was 2004 that was his breakout year.
At age 25, Adrian Beltre had one of the greatest years of all-time offensively for a third baseman. Included in his numbers were: .334 with 48 HRs and 121 RBIs, 200 hits and 104 runs. Beltre had a slugging percentage that year of .629. Adrian finished second in MVP voting to Barry Bonds. Beltre picked a perfect season to explode considering it was his free agent season. The Seattle Mariners came calling with a 5-year $64 Million deal. The Seattle Mariners had also signed Richie Sexson that year to try and compete in the AL West for 2005.
The move did not pay off at the start, with Beltre struggling in the 1st half of the season. Yet there was a nice second half of the year, as he still managed to put up 19 HR’S and 87 RBI. Beltre was frustrated with his first year although he had optimism towards the future, citing the League switch (as it was hard to have a handle on pitchers you never had faced before). The next three years, Adrian cracked 76 HRs and drove in 265 RBIs. His average fluctuated a little between .260 to .280. Amongst the numbers that favored Beltre was that he hit 109 doubles in those 3 years. This next point is playing in certain ballparks can make a huge difference. As my regional team, I watched Beltre play for his entire Seattle Mariners career. I would say half of his doubles at home were launched off the fences of Safeco Field. Had Beltre played in a ballpark more offensive friendly, we are talking about a player capable of hitting 30-35 HRs every year. When you add up all of the extra base hits for Beltre, he is always in the top 10-15 every year. With 2010 coming, and finishing an injury plagued 2009 campaign for the Mariners, Beltre picked his worst year for a bad season (with him set to become a free agent for the 2nd time in his career). The Boston Red Sox finally came calling with a 1-year $10 Million contract.
Adrian Beltre was an outstanding fit at hitter-friendly Fenway Park, posting remarkable numbers of a .321 AVG with 28 HRs and 103 RBIs. It was another impressive season for doubles with 49 (which led the league). This was the second 80 Extra Base hits season of his career. Some would tell you that Adrian Beltre was the MVP of the Boston Red Sox in 2010, and that his absence from the team in the 2011 year was the main reason why the Red Sox struggled to start the season before missing the playoffs on the final day of the season. Adrian Beltre took his offensive talents to Texas for 2011, signing a 6-year $96 Million Contract.
Beltre tore it up in Arlington last season. Despite missing 38 games, Beltre clubbed 32 HRs and drove in 105 RBIs while carrying an Avg of .296. Beltre continued his torrid offensive pace in the playoffs, where he even had a 3-home run game in the ALDS versus the Tampa Bay Rays! Later in the World Series, Beltre hit a home run where he fell to his knees. At age 32 and with 5 seasons left in his contract with the Texas Rangers, this slugger shows no sign of slowing down. His career numbers are already impressive at .276 with 310 HRs, 1113 RBIs and 430 doubles. If Beltre can amass another 140 HRs, 170 doubles and 390 RBIs during these upcoming years(a yearly average of 28 HRs, 34 doubles and 78 RBIs), then you are talking about a guy that will have career numbers of 450 HRs, 1500 RBIs and 600 doubles. Those statistics would garner the man some serious consideration for the Hall of Fame… and he may not even be done playing after that. Beltre should have about 2800 hits by the time he is done as well. Beltre is also known as being one of the best defensive third baseman of late, which has culminated in 3 gold gloves over the last 5 years. With Beltre’s Gold Glove potential every year, there is no reason to think he will not win a couple more of these awards.
In the end, Beltre could have historical numbers for a third baseman, surpassed by only a select few like Mike Schmidt. I think it is very important for the writers of the BBWAA to talk to all of the announcers/broadcasters of all major league teams about the potential BBHOF candidates out there, as a guy like Adrian Beltre might just slip through the cracks. Ron Santo’s 2012 induction might just be a preview to the kind of third baseman who will one day join the fraternity. If you look up Beltre’s numbers as of today, their career numbers are already eerily similar.
*** Thank you to our Baseball Writer- Doug Booth for preparing today’s feature on MLB reports. To learn more about “The Fastest 30 Ballgames” and Doug Booth, you can follow Doug on Twitter (@ChuckBooth3024) and click here for Doug’s website, fastestthirtyballgames.com***
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Matt Garza vs. Doug Fister: Who is the More Valuable MLB Pitcher?
Thursday January 5th, 2012
Rob Bland: One of the perks of what I do is that I get to talk baseball with a lot of great people. The other day I got into a debate over a couple of right-handed pitchers that are extremely different. Some people were saying one was better than the other, while others disagreed with that notion. It got fairly heated… but it usually remained respectful.
The two players in question are Matt Garza of the Chicago Cubs and Doug Fister of the Detroit Tigers. Before the 2011 season, it would have been unanimous that Garza was the better pitcher. However, with a strong performance and a playoff push, Fister turned a lot of heads. Fister spent the first part of 2011 pitching for the lowly Seattle Mariners. While their pitching staff led by Felix Hernandez, Michael Pineda, Erik Bedard and Fister was solid, they anemic offense couldn’t muster any runs. When Fister was traded, his record sat at 3-12. His ERA was a solid 3.33 and while he only struck out 5.5 batters per 9 innings, he only walked 2 per 9.
Upon his arrival in Detroit, Fister was a new man. In 70 innings, he gave up 54 hits and walked only 5. His K/BB ratio was 11.4 and WHIP sat at 0.84. Fister also had an 8-1 record and 1.79 ERA. To say he solidified the rotation behind Justin Verlander is an understatement. Although the Tigers ran away with the AL Central Division, it would have been much closer if not for Fister.
Matt Garza spent his first season in the National League improving upon his career numbers. Sure, the NL Central isn’t a very good division, but then neither is the AL Central for that matter. Garza had spent the majority of his Major League career pitching in the daunting AL East, to varying degrees of success. With an average fastball velocity of 93.4 mph over his career, and solid secondary pitches, he is known as a pitcher with good stuff, and a bulldog mentality on the mound. Garza averaged almost 9 K/9 innings last year, to go with a 46.3% ground ball rate, a 3.32 ERA and only 2.86 BB/9. His record was 10-10 with a Cubs team that struggled mightily all season.
Now how do you compare these two players who have always played in completely different divisions and have entirely different pitching styles? Well, it is difficult to do so without looking at each of their past performances and future potential. Fister averages 89 mph on his fastball, and Garza 93, so arm strength is one advantage that Garza has. However, in 2011, according to Fangraphs, Garza’s wFB (Fastball Linear Weight) was worth 6.8 runs, in comparison to Fister’s 23.6 runs. So, despite Garza having a great advantage in velocity, Fister’s fastball was actually a much more effective pitch. Over his career, Fister has used 2 below average pitches- in his slider and curveball, while his changeup grades out at an average of just over 4 runs per season. Garza’s changeup is below average, his curveball is average, but his slider is an above average pitch that he threw almost a quarter of the time in 2011.
Fister is what he is. He doesn’t strike out a ton, but also doesn’t walk a ton. He induces ground balls at a high rate, and keeps the ball in the
park. He won’t “wow” you with his stuff… but he is consistent and a dependable starter to have in the rotation behind Verlander. I would think that in 2012 and beyond, his stats will look more similar to the ones he put up with Seattle than his numbers with Detroit during the past stretch run of 2011.
Garza is tougher to gauge in my estimation. He had a few very good years pitching in the AL East for some great Rays teams. His 2011 season with the Cubs was also solid. I would think that although he may not accrue a ton of wins, his peripheral stats will continue to shine playing in the paltry NL Central (unless he is traded).
One of the topics brought up in the debate was that of a hypothetical trade of Garza for Fister straight-up. There are a few things to consider in this scenario. First, Garza made $5.95M in 2011, and is likely due a raise to around $8-9M. Fister made just over the league minimum; $436,500. He will make a small raise to around $450K in 2012, and will be eligible for arbitration for the first time before the 2013 season. Second, Garza is under team control through 2013, where Fister is controllable through the 2015 season. These two facts make Fister a much more valuable asset. He is cheaper, and will be around for a longer time. So I would hope that the Tigers would say no to that trade if the offer came up.
However, given Garza’s proven track record in the AL East, and his pure stuff grading out higher, I would take Garza if both players were at an even playing field of the same salary and years of team control.
On the surface- to most people, this seems like an easy decision. But after much research and thought, I decided I would still rather have Garza. I am going with upside and “stuff” over consistency.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Rob Bland. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Blandy on Twitter***
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Is This the End of the Line for Raul Ibanez?
Monday January 2, 2012
Doug Booth- Baseball Writer: If Raul Ibanez has indeed swung his last bat in the majors, he should hold his head up high considering the last decade he put together. I have long respected Ibanez for foraging a decent career out after being one of the dozens of left fielders to fail the trio of Buhner/Griffey (and insert Miscellaneous Left Fielder) that played alongside these Seattle Mariners All-Stars from 1992-2000. When Jose Bautista made his improbable 54 home run statement season in 2010 with the Toronto Blue Jays, people often wondered how a player could come from out of nowhere like this. I quickly thought of Raul Ibanez.
Ibanez was drafted by the Seattle Mariners in the Amateur Draft of 1992. By the age of 24, Raul found himself in the Majors with the Seattle Mariners. But lackluster results mixed with trips up and down from the Minor Leagues forced him to sign as a free agent with the Kansas City Royals before the 2001 season. Ibanez was called up from Omaha that year and hit .280 with 13 HR’S and 54 RBI in 104 games. The next year was Raul’s first full season in the Majors and he hit .294 with 24 HR’s and 103 RBI with the Royals. Mariners fans were now sad to see that management let their draft pick go and flourish with another ball club. Raul spent 2 more productive seasons in Kansas City before rejoining the Seattle Mariners.
Raul Ibanez was planning on being a full time DH, replacing the just retired Edgar Martinez. It was a great idea by the Mariners who saw Ibanez become hurt in the 2004 season, but saw potential with his inspired play. Raul’s first 2 seasons as a DH were decent with .304 16 HR’S and 62 RBI’s in 2004- and .280 20 HR’s and 89 RBI’s in 2005. But after the 2005 fall they signed newly World Series winning DH Carl Everett for the 2006 season. This meant Raul would have to go back to playing the outfield. While he wasn’t the slickest of fielders, he was aided by defensive minded Center Fielder Jeremy Reed. Raul did work hard and steadily improved on his defense every year. However it was his offense that started to fully thrive. The Mariners had Ichiro Suzuki cracking out 225 hits a year out of the leadoff spot, setting the table for the middle of the order. Raul had his best offensive season in 2006, hitting .289 with 33 HR’S and 123 RBI. This is no small feat considering Ibanez played half of his games at pitcher friendly Safeco Field. Raul played 2 more seasons with Mariners, registering consecutive 100 RBI seasons and 3 straight overall. Ibanez had turned himself into an annual offensive threat. Ibanez’s 338 RBI between the years 2006-2008 were one of the higher totals amongst Major Leaguers. This landed him a 3-Year $33 Million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Philadelphia Phillies fans were treated to a hot Raul Ibanez streak out of the gate in the 2009 season, where he hit .309 with 22 HR’S
and 60 RBI in just 64 games before the All-Star Break. Raul was invited for his 1st and only All-Star Appearance that year despite hitting 22 HR’s and 70 RBI for the Mariners before the break in the 2006 season. There was even serious talk that Ibanez was an early season NL MVP favorite-this was all occurring while Ibanez had just celebrated his 37th birthday. This was one of the things that you had to love about this guy. He had stretches during the season where he could deliver MVP caliber baseball and win several games for his team single-handed. Ibanez was also in the middle of a pennant race for a change. Ibanez slowed down a little bit towards the end of the 2009 season but still hit .272 with 34 HR’S and 93 RBI. Raul set career highs in HR’S, Slugging % and extra base hits with 69 in 2009. Raul went onto hit 2 HR’S and drive in 13 RBI in 15 post season games that resulted in a World Series loss to the New York Yankees.
In 2010 and 2011 Raul saw his numbers decline, however he was still productive enough to warrant his contract as an above average Left Fielder statistically. In 3 seasons with Philadelphia, Raul earned his keep by slugging 70 HR’S and 260 RBI. Most of the Philadelphia brass would have taken this production in a heartbeat following the 2008 season in which the team said ‘so long’ to offensively declining threat Pat Burrell. This may be the end for Raul Ibanez, but he was still one of the most prolific RBI men in the years from 2002-2011. Showing remarkable consistency, Raul hit.284 with 225 HR’S and 942 RBI for those 10 seasons with 598 of the RBI’S coming in the last 6 years. Included in these years Raul also had 4-100 RBI seasons. Not bad for a guy who was drafted in the 36th round. I hope a National League team decides to pick him up for some pinch hitting duties for the 2012 campaign. The only question that remains is in this regard-would the Philadelphia Phillies fans cheer or boo him if he returned to Citizens Bank Ballpark as an opposing player? I firmly believe that they would cheer for him because he is as blue collar as they come.
*** Thank you to our Baseball Writer- Doug Booth for preparing today’s feature on MLB reports. To learn more about “The Fastest 30 Ballgames” and Doug Booth, you can follow Doug on Twitter (@ChuckBooth3024) and click here for Doug’s website, fastestthirtyballgames.com***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Who is the Padres First Baseman of the Future?
Wednesday December 21st, 2011
Sam Evans:On Saturday, the Padres pulled off a blockbuster deal with the Cincinnati Reds for Padres pitcher Mat Latos. One of the players the Padres received was first baseman Yonder Alonso. Prior to the trade, the Padres were heading into the season with Anthony Rizzo as their projected first baseman. Now, the Padres have some big decisions to make that will affect the outcome of their franchise for years to come.
San Diego acquired Anthony Rizzo in the Adrian Gonzalez trade a couple of years ago. In 2011, I watched Rizzo play once in Triple-A, and again in the majors. Rizzo came into the season as a top-fifty prospect, and solidified his stature with a strong start to the season. With the Tucson Padres in 2011, Rizzo batted .331 with a 149 wRC+. Rizzo made his debut on June 9 against the Nationals, and hit his first Major League homer two days later.
Unfortunately, that would be Rizzo’s only homer in the big leagues all year. Despite his dominance of the lower levels, Rizzo batted .141 for the big league team over forty-nine games. Rizzo plays with extreme intensity, and I would not be surprised (given that he is a young player), if he was down on himself after his poor performance in San Diego.
Rizzo struggled in the majors with making solid contact and squaring up the ball. He has a very long swing, which he might consider changing this offseason. If everything works out perfectly for Rizzo, he would project to be a .280/.350/.500 hitter.
Yonder Alonso is a very intriguing prospect. First of all, he is 240 pounds and two years older than Rizzo. He is not as athletic as Rizzo, and not a strong defender. In 2011, Alonso played shaky outfield defense because he was blocked by Votto at first base. From what I have heard, the majority of people think that Alonso can’t stick in the outfield. He lacks speed, and experience at the corner outfield positions.
Offensively, Alonso is an outstanding hitter. A great comparison for Alonso is a right-handed Carlos Lee. In his 69 games with the Reds over the last two years, Alonso has hit .299 with a .354 OBP and .479 SLG. If you add a couple more homers to those numbers, that would give you a good idea of what Alonso is capable of doing.
The San Diego Padres have a problem on their hands. However, some people are forgetting that this is a great issue to have. San Diego has the choice to either trade one of the above named players, or try to find a new position for one of them. If San Diego keeps both players, Rizzo will probably end up moving to the outfield. With his athleticism, he would probably do just fine. The Padres could also trade Rizzo, and they would probably get some decent to excellent players in return.
It will be interesting to see what the Padres do with this situation. They have several different options available to them. Personally, I would move Rizzo to the outfield and keep Alonso at first base. Nevertheless, I am still worried about Rizzo’s ability to hit Major League pitchers given his current swing. There is no doubt that this decision has a strong potential to change the course of the Padres franchise for years to come.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Sam Evans. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Sam on Twitter***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter (@MLBreports) and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Are Fred McGriff and Larry Walker Heading to Cooperstown?
Sunday December 11th, 2011
Sam Evans: During the pinnacle of their careers, Fred McGriff and Larry Walker, each averaged over thirty home runs a year. Now, in their first couple years of eligibility, both players have shown promising signs that they are on their way to becoming Hall-of-Famers. However, I’m not quite sure if they both deserve it.
Larry Walker: Larry Walker was an amazing power-hitting outfielder from 1989 to 2005. He actually was a very solid defensive right fielder, considered one of the best in baseball history. Walker played for the Expos, Rockies, and Cardinals during his seventeen years in the majors.
Walker helped popularize the game back in his home country of Canada. He was the first Canadian ever to win the MVP in 1997. He hit .366 with 49 HR, 130 RBI, and 33 stolen bases. When he retired in 2005, he had been nominated to five All-Star games, he won seven Gold Gloves, and Walker finished with 67.3 WAR, which is 67th all-time among position players.
Unfortunately, Walker also played during the height of the Steroid Era. We are learning more and more about these dangerous drugs as time passes, and we still can’t be positive who is using PED’s (See Ryan Braun announcement from today). It would not come as a big surprise to me if Walker was using PED’s in the 90’s. However, as great as it is to see a player that had a successful career without PED’s, (e.g. Ken Griffey Jr.), we have to remember that performance enhancing drugs were not banned back then. I am sure that the public suspicion that Walker was a steroid user though are hurting his Hall of Fame chances.
Another knock against Walker is that he never won a World Series. It is hard for voters to vote for a proclaimed winner, if they never won a championship. In 2011, Walker’s first year of eligibility, he received 20.3 of the BBWAA votes. The requirement is seventy-five percent, but overall, this was a strong first year showing for Walker.
If you look at Walker’s career as a whole, I’m pretty certain he will be considered a Hall-of-Famer. I really think Cooperstown though needs to redefine what being a hall of famer is all about. Is it about the impact players made on the game? Or what their numbers look like? The Hall-of-Fame has a lot more problems with its standards then I think most people realize.
Fred McGriff: McGriff is another top power hitter. McGriff holds the MLB record for homers in the most different stadiums with forty-two.
McGriff hit 493 homers in his career, good enough for 25th all-time. “Crime Dog” also finished with a .284 BA, and an average of 86 walks per 162 games. McGriff was nominated to five All-Star games and led the league in home runs twice. On the other hand, McGriff was not known as a great defensive first basemen. Also, he never really stayed with one team for an extended amount of time.
When looking at McGriff’s long career, the homers obviously stand out. He hit just as many homers as current HOF’er Lou Gehrig. Another highlight of McGriff’s nineteen year career was winning the World Series with the Braves in 1995.
McGriff will surely be named a Hall-of-Famer before his fifteen years are up. He played during an era where power was easy to find, and McGriff relied on his power to provide him with a lengthy career. However, 483 homers, and being tabbed “Baseball Superstar” in Tom Emanski’s infamous commercials is apparently enough for an election to Cooperstown.
McGriff is really a “push” candidate for the Hall-of-Fame. I’m not completely sure he will a fair chance to make it because of the era he played in. In 2010, McGriff received 21.5% of the BBWAA votes, and then in 2011, he took a step back only getting 17.9% of the votes.
For both of these players, writers are more reluctant to vote for them because of who the group they played with. As was evidenced with the Ryan Braun news, Americans have a very negative reaction to PED’s. We just want to enjoy baseball nostalgically, with”real” athletes that don’t need to cheat to succeed. The truth is, cheating is a huge part of the game. From corked bats to spitballs, this kind of thing has been going on for over a hundred years. The effects that PED’s have in the human body are devastating, and turning yourself into a superhuman should not be allowed in baseball. However, the era in which Larry Walker and Fred McGriff played in should not be the reason to keep them out of Cooperstown. Both players should be judged on their numbers and performances, if that is possible.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Sam Evans. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Sam on Twitter***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
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A Tribute to Jamie Moyer: Life Begins After 30
Saturday December 10, 2011
Doug Booth- Guest Baseball Writer: In May of 1993, Jamie Moyer had spent the previous year entirely in the Minor Leagues with the Detroit Tigers and wondered if his signing with Baltimore Orioles in the offseason was a mistake. At that point in his career Moyer had posted a career won-loss record of 34-54 (.405) with the Cubs, Rangers and Cardinals. He was a soft-tossing Left Handed Pitcher who struggled with giving up home runs. Jamie was called up May.30/1993 by the O’s and began to pitch himself into respectability the next 3 seasons with Baltimore-achieving a 25-22 record. Baltimore was a contending team in the American League and thought Moyer was not going to help them with a championship bid the following year so they released him after the 1995 season. Boston signed him for the 1996 season. Moyer started out in the bullpen 7-1 that year and was later traded to the Mariners for Darren Bragg. It would be a trade that would give Jamie a new lease on life.
The Seattle Mariners were a powerhouse team back then with the likes of Ken Griffey Jr, Randy Johnson, Edgar Martinez, Jay Buhner and a young phenom SS in Alex Rodriguez. The team had plenty of offense and just enough defense to help Moyer go 6-2 the rest of the 1996 season-to help his record to 13-3 overall that year which led the Major Leagues for winning percentage (.813). Moyer was a perfect complimentary pitcher to Randy Johnson went it came to style contrast. Johnson threw in the mid-nineties and buttered up the opposition-and Moyer was the perfect change of pace with crafty off-speed tossing. In 1997, Jamie Moyer went 17-5 with a respectable 3.86 ERA, that was not bad considering the Mariners played at an offence friendly Kingdome for half of the time. The next three years Jamie still went 42-27, but his ERA had crept up to 5.49 in 2000, which was more than a run and a half higher during his Mariners career. Jamie Moyer had still proved his critics wrong with his career renaissance. He was turning 38 in that offseason. The Mariners had moved into Safeco Field despite losing star players of Ken Griffey, Randy Johnson and Alex Rodriguez in consecutive years. The team looked to be in transition. Jamie still wanted to pitch and began training harder than ever.
The 2001 season was historical for the Mariners from start to finish. Playing in front of capacity crowds at Safeco Field the Mariners played inspired baseball. Right in the middle of the team’s incredible year was Rookie of the Year and MVP Ichiro Suzuki. His injection of youth and helped the Mariners finish the season with a record tying 116 wins. In those wins, Jamie finished the year 20-6. It was Jamie’s first 20 win season. Jamie lowered his ERA all the way down to 3.43 that year-which was one of his best ERA’s of his career. The Mariners lost out in the ALCS to the Yankees but Jamie Moyer had pitched the best year of his career. Jamie finished 4th in Cy Young voting. Despite lowering his ERA to a career best 3.32 at that time, Jamie finished 14-8 in 2002. In 2003, and at the incredible age of 40, Jamie went 21-7 with a career single season best 3.27 ERA. Jamie was named to his only ALL-STAR appearance and finished in the top five of Cy Young voting once again.
In 2004, the Mariners had replaced Lou Piniella and had begun the downward spiral to the bottom of the AL WEST. Jamie was a gamer but sported a 7-13 record with an ERA of over 5 again. It looked like he was hanging on to his career by a thread again. Not even the comforts of Safeco Field were providing enough shelter for his game. Jamie had given up 44 home runs in 2004 which had led the American League. The team was not competitive in 2005 but Jamie bounced back with a 13-7 record and a 4.28 ERA. Jamie had worked several games with Catcher Pat Borders (1992 World Series MVP.) Each time the two 42 year olds would be the pitcher catcher tandem they set a record for the oldest pair. This exact tandem was the pitcher and catcher when I attended my first game in the United States at Safeco Field in June of 2005. In 2006, Jamie started the year 6-12 despite pitching well, (His ERA was back down to 4.39,) that is when the Philadelphia Phillies picked him up for the playoffs that year. Jamie left the Mariners as the franchise’s all-time winner at 145-87 (.625)
Over the next five years, Jamie continued to amaze the doubters by posting a 56-40 record (.583). At the age of 45, Jamie Moyer played the most pivotal of roles-with series saving performances in the 2008 playoffs en-route to the Phillies winning the World Series. It was a culmination of a career for the man. Jamie pitched okay in 2009, and saved some of his better performances for later in the season coming out of the bullpen-before suffering some torn muscles in his left arm that ended his season. 2010 saw Jamie post a respectable record of 9-9 before he was injured for the rest of the year just after the All-Star Break. Jamie tried to pitch in the Dominican Winter Leagues that fall but he tore up some more pitching muscles. Jamie Moyer needed Tommy John surgery at the age of 48. Jamie still plans on making a comeback in 2012 at the age of 49. Even if he doesn’t catch on with a team-his longevity and record is quite remarkable.
Jamie Moyer Key Stats
Started his career 34-54 before age 30 (.405) and then went 233-150 for the remainder of his career for a .608 winning percentage. His
career record is currently 267-204 is still at a .567 winning percentage. His 233 wins after the age of 30 trail only #1 Phil Niekro (297 wins) and #2 Warren Spahn (273 wins) all time in MLB history but Jamie had a better winning percentage than both of them after age 30 at .608-to Spahn’s .594 and Niekro’s .540. Jamie was one of the top 2 winning pitchers from 2001-2010 decade with a record of 140-94 (.594), only Randy Johnson with 143 wins in the decade had more…rounding out that top 5 were: Roy Halladay with 139. Andy Pettitte had 138, Roy Oswalt and Tim Hudson had 138. Jamie also compiled a record of 103-70 (.595) after the age of 40. Jamie Moyer has thrown 4020 innings and struck out 2405 batters despite a fastball that ranged from 82-89 MPH in his career.
Will Jamie Moyer receive Baseball Hall of Fame consideration? He will garner some votes as his career is very similar to Tommy John. It is unfortunate the man could not achieve 300 wins in his career with such a slow start-but there is no denying that he should receive “The Most Unlikely to Have Such a Great Career Award.” He is a classy professional and is an even better human off the field, with running his Moyer Foundations all across the country. Jamie has touched countless people and is a great role model for all of those athletes who might feel like giving up. Kudos for having a great second half to your career Jamie Moyer!!
*** Thank you to our Guest Baseball Writer- Doug Booth for joining us today on MLB reports. To learn more about “The Fastest 30 Ballgames” and Doug Booth, you can follow Doug on Twitter (@ChuckBooth3024) and click here for Doug’s website, fastestthirtyballgames.com***
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Ryan Madson: A Free Agent Closer with no Job?
Thursday December 8, 2011
MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen: With the Winter Meetings at an end, players/teams/agents are left standing to look over the game of musical chairs and who is left standing. A particularly interesting position was closer- with more eligible players than open positions. In the past few weeks, we have seen many signings and trades in this area. Jonathan Papelbon to the Phillies. Sergio Santos to the Blue Jays. Huston Street to the Padres. Francisco Rodriguez accepted arbitration from the Brewers. Heath Bell to the Marlins. Joe Nathan to the Rangers. Andrew Bailey is openly being discussed in the trade market as leaving the A’s. Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch joined the Mets. As a result, one big name is left standing with no dance partner. Ryan Madson is still on the open market with few promising prospects ahead.
As the story goes, Madson was supposed to re-sign with the Phillies. A reported 4-year, estimated $44 million contract was put on the table by the Phillies early in free agency. Player and agent (Scott Boras) happily accepted and a Philadelphia return was in order. Not so fast. There are conflicting stories on what transpired. Needless to say, there was never a firm deal in place and the Phillies moved quickly to sign the top closer on the free agent market, Jonathan Papelbon. Since then, there has been little discussion on Madson. There have been reports throughout the process linking him to the Jays, Marlins and Red Sox. Well…the first 2 teams have filled their vacancies. The Red Sox have Daniel Bard as the incumbent set-up man who could get a look at the closing position- although he may end up in the rotation. Other than that, there seems to be little hope for Madson.
Last night, Madson chose not to the K-Rod route and accept salary arbitration. As a result, he remains out in the market waiting for his next contract offer. Francisco Cordero is in the same boat, although he is still likely to go back to the Reds on a 1-2 year contract from the whispers around the league. But even if the Reds do not retain Cordero, it is unlikely that they will sign Madson- especially given the young players they still need to lock-up to extensions. So what other options exist for Madson? Perhaps the Orioles. Maybe the Rays. The options are getting bleak.
This is one of the few times that you will see Scott Boras caught “with his pants down” so to speak. For an agent that is well known to be
able to create and stimulate markets and demands for his clients, Boras has come up short for Madson. The perception is that the Phillies did what was best for them in signing Papelbon, which left Boras outraged and in a bind. With little to no teams looking for closers, Boras essentially only has the Red Sox to work with. At this point, he may need to take a 1-2 year deal for Madson, in the $7-10 million range to rebuild his value and try again on the open market in the future. A risky proposition, but with few options- Madson may have no other choice.
I was actually quite surprised that Madson didn’t take the Phillies offer of arbitration. Based on his stellar 2011 numbers, he could have expected a strong 1-year contract at least. Now Boras and Madson are left to take their chances on the open market. For a closer with only 1 full year on the job, time is not on Madson’s side. A proven closer like Francisco Cordero knows that he find a contract soon. Heck, even K-Rod knows that he just needs another solid season under his belt and his next deal will follow shortly after. Madson was in line for his first and only big payday this offseason. If he gets hurt or becomes ineffective in 2012, that dream vanishes. Scott Boras better work overtime to get the Red Sox biting on his closer client. Otherwise, it may not turn out to be a very Merry Christmas in the Madson household this year.
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen)
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Maddux Brothers Reunited in Texas
Wednesday December 7, 2011
Sam Evans: The Maddux brothers may have stopped playing the game years ago, but they definitely haven’t left it. Greg Maddux was the best pitcher of the 90’s and Mike Maddux enjoyed a long career. Now they have finally been reunited, working for one of the smartest organizations in baseball: the Texas Rangers.
When I heard that Greg Maddux (aka “The Professor”) was going to the Rangers, the first thing I thought was, ‘ As a pitcher or a coach?’ I still have vivid memories of Greg Maddux and his command unlike any other pitcher in the history of the game. Maddux controlled games. He wasn’t necessarily intimidating, he was just so intelligent and he had such great consistency.
Greg is only 45, four years younger than Jamie Moyer, and the Rangers are in need of pitching, so on some levels a comeback would have made sense. Maddux has no reason though to come back. He hasn’t pitched since 2008, so there was no real chance of that actually happening. He just seems like the perfect kind of pitcher that would pitch at the age of 45 if the desire was there.
Greg threw an amazing 5,008 innings in his career, with a 3.16 ERA and a 3.26 ERA. Mad Dog earned four Cy Young Awards and was an eight-time All-Star. There is no doubt that Greg Maddux is a first ballot Hall-of-Famer. He is not only appealing to the newer generation of voters ( 120.6 WAR ), but to old-fashioned voters as well (a whopping 18 Gold Glove Awards).
Mike Maddux was mainly the “other guy”. Greg Maddux’s older brother had a lengthy career playing for nine years, but he was never as successful as his younger brother. He threw 862 innings in his career, with a 4.05 ERA and a 5.6 K/9.
Now in 2011, things are very different. Mike is now doing better than Greg at something baseball-related. Mike Maddux has become known as one of the best pitching coaches in baseball, first for the Brewers, and now for the Rangers. Meanwhile, Greg had been working as a coach with the Cubs. While it is impossible to find the true impact of a coach, so far Mike has had a much larger effect to-date. Mike was even considered for both the recent Red Sox and Cubs managerial openings, but he opted to stay put in Texas.
News broke late in November that Greg would be joining his brother with the Rangers. Greg was hired as a special assistant to the general manager. According to GM Jon Daniels, Greg will help with the development of their young players.
This truly is a great story. Two brothers who have never played or worked for the same team, not even in high school, will finally get the chance to do so. They will be working alongside Nolan Ryan molding one of the most talented teams in all of baseball. I’d be surprised if having these two studs working with the Rangers young pitchers doesn’t work out perfectly.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Sam Evans. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Sam on Twitter***
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Adam Dunn: 2012 Trade Bargain of the Year
Wednesday December 7, 2011
MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen: Tonight has been an exciting circus of winter meetings trades and free agent signings. With all the names thrown around this week, one that has not come up enough has been that of Adam Dunn. Whenever he has been mentioned, it has usually been in a negative context. But the time has come to consider a Dunn acquisition in a positive light. We could be looking at the 2012 Trade Bargain of the Year.
The value of Adam Dunn has been discussed in previous editions of the Reports. The debate on Dunn has fallen essentially into two categories. Whether 2011 represents an outlier in his career…or the beginning of the end. I argue the former rather than the latter. At age 32, I do not believe that Dunn all of a sudden lost his skills overnight. His decline in Chicago can be traced to many possible factors. First year in the American League, new city, new position, Ozzie as a manager, etc. Whatever the reason, the fit for Dunn did not exist with the White Sox in 2011. There could be a rebound if he stays put, but my instinct is that the White Sox would move Dunn in the right deal. With the team apparently in sell-mode and rebuilding, given the trade of Sergio Santos to the Jays yesterday, impending loss of Mark Buehrle and other key veterans on the trade block, teams would be wise to jump on Dunn immediately.
So how do we fix Adam Dunn? Simple. Get him into a new environment, DH him for the majority of the time with an occasional start in the OF and 1B and he will rebound to his previous slugging ways. Teams like the Orioles, Red Sox, Jays, Yankees, Angels, Athletics and Mariners would all be well served to give GM Kenny Williams a call. Dunn is owed a whopping $44 million over the next 3 years. If the right deal is presented (top prospect in return), the White Sox could perhaps be sold into eating half of the contract. At $22 million, approximately $7 million per season for the next 3 seasons, I would happily take 40 home runs, 100 RBIs, .400 OBP and .500 SLG. The Adam Dunn I watched last year looked very similar to the Nick Swisher on the White Sox in 2008. Things ended up rebounding for Swisher in New York and the same could happen for Dunn on a new squad.
In the age of $100 million contracts being discussed for C.J. Wilson and $200 million deals for Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols, $20-$30 million for a proven slugger like Dunn is a bargain. Building a baseball team, is like building a stock portfolio. Buy low and sell high. Buying C.J. Wilson now is buying high. Good luck on moving that contract in a year (see Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford from a year ago). There is no evidence that Adam Dunn is indeed on the trade market. But if he is (with Kenny Williams, everyone is expandable), teams should be targeting Dunn. He is a definite buy low candidate. With many teams looking for a proven bat in their lineup, there were fewer sure things in baseball going into this year than Adam Dunn. The White Sox thought so when they signed him to a 4-year contract. Clearly there was not a fit for Dunn in Chicago. But again, that does not mean that the player is finished. Dunn is young enough to rebound. Grab him while you can, as the price will be going up in 2013 after he is named Comeback Player of the Year.
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen)
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Time to Elect Don Mattingly into Cooperstown
Monday December 5, 2011
Doug Booth- Guest Baseball Writer: Okay, it is time for me to make my argument for my favorite player of all time to be inducted into Baseball’s Hall of Fame. There will be several people that will say that Don Mattingly’s career stats of: H-2154, HR-222, RBI-1099, AVG-.307 and 9 Gold Gloves are not enough in just 14 seasons. I am not counting his 7 game-stint in 1982 with this. As a rookie in 1983, Don only .hit .283 with 4 HR’S and 32 RBI’s. In Donnie’s first year as a full time first baseman, he led the AL with a .343 AVG-with 23 HR’S and 110 RBI’s, also leading the league in hits with 207 and 2B’s with 48.
They say that if you have a shortened career-(and Mattingly’s back injury in the late eighties certainly robbed him of a definite Hall of Fame Career,) then you better have an incredible stretch as the best player in baseball. It is my belief that Don Mattingly was the best all-around player from 1984-1989, with apologies to Rickey Henderson, Wade Boggs, Tony Gwynn and Dale Murphy, Don’s incredible consistency during this 6 year stretch included these numbers. A .327 AVG with 160 HR’s and a staggering 682 RBI’s with 257 doubles and 1219 hits. Nobody had more RBI’s and extra base hits in that time frame. Only Wade Boggs had more hits. The 6 year AVG breaks down to an AVG of .327 with H-204, 2B-43, HR-27 and RBI-114. What is most impressive is that Mattingly only averaged 33 strikeouts a season/or about 1/23 Plate appearances in this stretch.
During this stretch-Mattingly was also an All-star for 6 straight seasons-and was a Gold Glover for 5 years straight from 85-89. Donnie led the league in doubles three times, (84-86), hits twice, (84-86), total bases twice, (85-86), AVG in ’86, slugging and OBP in 1986. Don’s 145 RBI’s in 1985 were the most RBI’s by a left hander since the 1960’s. The same could be said for his 388 total bases in 1986. Other dominant stretches included his 1987 power streaks, in which he hit a record-6 grand slams(since equaled by Travis Hafner,) and also is still tied for homering in a record-tying 8 straight games (and should be the official leader because only Don hit 10 HR’S in that stretch of 8 games.) Mattingly is a silver slugger three times over (84-86), and The Sporting News Player of the Year for the seasons of (84-86). Don was the AL MVP in 1985, and finished 2nd in 1986 to Roger Clemens, but for hitting he was listed as #1. His 1984 and 1987 seasons also garnered serious MVP considerations. All impressive for a man who was not considered a power hitting prospect.
Back injuries slowed Mattingly down from 1990-1995, where he lost most of his power, but he was a .290 contact hitter who would still drive in about 80-85 RBI’S per year. If he could have kept playing healthy, instead of retiring at the age of 34, he would have had nearly 3000 hits, and probably would have hit 600-700 2B, and 300 HR’s-with about 1600 RBI’S. He probably would have finished up career with an AVG. that was near .300. You could probably add 3-5 more Gold Gloves as well. Instead, he finished with 2154 hits. His .307 career average will be one of the higher averages never to be in the Hall of Fame if he is not voted in. Don’s average season is still .307 with 20 HR’S, 97 RBI’S, with close to 200 hits and 40 doubles.
Another fact that gets overlooked was Don’s strikeout ratio to plate appearances. Mattingly only struck out 444 times in 7721 PA’s, or
once every 19 times. This stat is unbelievable for a modern age hitter-and 444 Strikeouts is only 2 less doubles than the man hit in his career with 442. Only Tony Gwynn has had a better ratio for striking out in the last 50 years. You add the 9 Gold Gloves-(2nd all-time for a 1B), and this man should be gaining more consideration for the hall.
Other comparisons in numbers for players already in the Hall, would be Jim Rice and Kirby Puckett, Puckett for average and power, while Rice has similar offensive numbers for his 162 game AVG. Rice had a few more HR’s and RBI’s while Mattingly had a better AVG. and had more hits/doubles for an average season. Both played 14 seasons.
For all of those kids watching Donnie Baseball play live, or on TV, we saw a guy that exemplified a professional hitter. Amongst fielding 1st baseman that I have seen, no one has ever been better. His swing was pure poetry in motion, even when he older, it must have drove pitchers crazy that they could not strike him out. I am only sad that Don Mattingly has missed out on all of the Yankees championship seasons.
At least his fans can always recall his last at bat in the 1995 playoffs where he crushed a homer in a 5th game loss to the Mariners in the ALDS. It was a great career shortened by back injuries. If defensive prowess is deemed a lot more lucrative for a Hall of Fame bid, once again they have to consider ‘Donnie Baseball.’
*** Thank you to Doug Booth for joining us today on MLB reports. To learn more about “The Fastest 30 Ballgames” and Doug Booth, you can follow Doug on Twitter (@ChuckBooth3024) and click here for Doug’s website, fastestthirtyballgames.com***
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Will Jorge Posada and Jason Varitek Retire?
Sunday December 4th, 2011
Sam Evans: Between these two catchers, they have six World Series rings, eight All-Star selections, and nearly five hundred home runs. There is no question that Jorge Posada and Jason Varitek were two of the best catchers in the last ten years, if not major league history. Unfortunately, the last two years everything has changed for both of them. Now, with the organizations they both have spent their whole respective careers nudging them out the door, one has to wonder what will be the next chapter for these two superstars.
Jason Varitek: Tek has always been a step below Jorge Posada. He 
is recognized as a great game caller, but he is not an especially strong offensive catcher. At Varitek’s peak in 2004, he batted .296 with 18 home runs and a .390 OBP. He helped lead the Red Sox to their first World Series in eighty-six years.
In 2008, Varitek really fell off a cliff in terms of offensive production. In the following years, he wouldn’t be able to get back to what he once was. I think the Red Sox have only kept him around the last three years because he is a great veteran in the clubhouse and out of loyalty and respect.
Varitek is now 39 years old, and without a contract. In 2010, Varitek was signed by the Red Sox for one year at $2 million. This offseason, he should be looking for a similar contract where he can mentor and back up a young catcher. I think the perfect team for Varitek is the Houston Astros. Houston has no catchers over twenty-five, with none of the catchers on their roster being highly rated. If Varitek could just come to Houston on a one-year deal and call two to three games a week, I think that would be the best scenario for both sides.
There is always the chance that Varitek will want to retire as a Red Sox and as a result, he could retire this offseason. As for Varitek’s chance at the Hall of Fame, I don’t really think he has a strong enough case. He never dominated the field, and he was never the best player at his position. He will be remembered for helping Boston reverse the curse but not as a Hall-of-Famer.
Jorge Posada: Posada certainly had a more successful career than Varitek. He won four World Series, and helped define Yankees baseball over the last decade.
Posada has 275 career home runs, but he has never hit more than thirty in one season. His career batting average, .246, is not very impressive. Posada has always had the power, he is just missing a lot of other skills. He is not known as a great defensive catcher, as was shown when the Yankees decided to move Posada to being their everyday DH for the 2011 season.
2011 turned out to be a pretty rough season for Posada. In May, Posada asked for a day off against the Red Sox. In any normal baseball city, this wouldn’t be a big deal. However, in New York, things are different. Posada ended up apologizing and GM Brian Cashman had to write a press release. Posada finished 2011 with a .235 BA, .309 wOBA, and 14 home runs.The highlight of his year was in the ALDS where Posada was 6 for 14 with a .579 OBP.
I would be surprised if the Yankees plan on having Posada back as their starting DH for next year. They can’t risk weakening their team just to make sure a player’s feelings don’t get hurt. Every member of the Yankees core-four are seeing their career come to a slow end. I am curious to see if Posada does decide to keep playing baseball in 2012, whether he chooses to market himself as a DH or a catcher.
Jon Heyman of Sports Illustrated wrote that Posada will play baseball next year if he finds the right opportunity and the Marlins are a possible suitor. I don’t see Posada providing much on-field value, but if the Marlins are looking for a veteran who knows how to win, Posada would be a perfect match.
Similar to Varitek, Posada just didn’t have a strong enough career to make the Hall of Fame. He will be remembered as a great person, and one of the Core Four that defined this new age of Yankee baseball. I just don’t see Posada getting enough support from BBWAA members who will focus more on stats, rather than intangibles.
Neither of these players are going to have an easy end to their careers. Both are in the last days of professional baseball and have some important decisions to make. Neither Varitek nor Posada will ever be forgotten for their character and contributions to their franchises. Regardless of whether either one makes the hall of fame, both have enjoyed careers to be proud of and that few other players could ever imagine possible.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Sam Evans. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Sam on Twitter***
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Jonathan Broxton Signs with the Royals: Joakim Soria to be Traded?
Wednesday November 30, 2011
MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen: Another reliever is off the market. On Tuesday, the Kansas City Royals announced that they had signed former Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton to a 1-year contract. The deal is reported to be for $4 million, with an additional $1 million in incentives. There will be an official announcement once Broxton passes his physical. Given his health over the past couple of seasons, there are no guarantees that this deal will go through. But assuming that Broxton’s elbow has recovered from his September surgery, he should be an official member of the Royals any day now.
There are many significant items to come out of this signing. Broxton was in heavy demand, with at least a dozen teams interested. The Royals did have to pay a premium to land him, considering the state of his health in recent times. Looking at the numbers, Broxton had three solid seasons between 2006-2008 as a middle reliever and part-time closer. He broke out in a big way in 2009, with 36 saves, 2.61 ERA and 0.961 WHIP. Broxton’s slide began in 2010 and he was shut down effectively for most of 2011. The Royals are banking on a return to form for the 27-year old Broxton. At a reported playing weight of 300 lbs., Broxton will need to come in shape to camp and work hard this offseason to be an effective Major League pitcher. He is still young and has the arm. The big variables will be is the health of his elbow and his commitment to conditioning.
Based in Georgia, it is reported that location played a large part in his decision to sign with the Royals. With an up-and-coming Royals team, Broxton could be a good fit as the team looks to be a playoff contender in the near future. At worst, the team will lose $4 million for a season. But the upside could be a very effective setup man or closer at a reasonable rate. A low risk- high reward proposition for the Royals. So now, where does this leave Joakim Soria? The Royals have denied interest in moving their top closer. I would disagree. Regardless of whether the Broxton signing goes through, it is my gut feeling that Joakim Soria will not be a Royal come 2012.
The Royals have set themselves up quite nicely in the bullpen. After Soria and Broxton, the team still has Aaron Crow, Tim Collins and Greg Holland, among others, as setup men and possible closing options. If Broxton were to take over as closer for Soria in 2012, this would allow the other members of the pen to develop and grow. At least one of these bullpen candidates could be groomed into a closer by late 2012 or 2013. The options are there for the Royals. In fact, with so many valuable bullpen arms, the team could even try Aaron Crow into the rotation. I see his fit likely best in the bullpen, but at the least the option is there…and options are a good thing. When I look at Joakim Soria though, I see a valuable chip that can be moved to better the team in the long term.
After four strong seasons in the Royals pen, Soria is coming off a weak 2011 by his standards. He still finished with 28 saves, but also
had a 4.03 ERA and 1.276 WHIP. The Royals have to ask themselves a couple of questions. Given Soria’s arm troubles in the past, could he get injured? Also, will 2011 be a blip on the radar or a sign of things to come? Let’s face it: pitchers, especially relievers, are injury risks. To compound possible health issues, closers are at risk to implode at any time and lose their job. Soria has been outstanding for several seasons. Is he the next Mariano Rivera or Jonathan Papelbon? Or another B.J. Ryan or Bobby Thigpen? None of us can look into a crystal ball and tell. But what we do now is that there are only a handful of closers in major league history that were effective long term and consistently reliable for their careers. For every Goose Gossage and Trevor Hoffman, there are hundreds of closers that were strong early in their career and faded. With the Royals about 2-3 seasons away from contending, Soria is a luxury that they cannot afford to keep at this stage.
For a team looking to acquire Soria, he is signed to a very reasonable contract. He will make $6 million in 2012 and has 2 team options for 2013-2014 at approximately $8 million per season. The Royals can choose to keep Soria and perhaps be set at the closer position for another decade. Or they can keep a reliever that can be injured or ineffective in 2012, thus discounting heavily his trade value. They also run the risk of losing Soria as a free agent after the 2014 season. The point is that the longer they wait, the less the Royals will get back for Soria. With Broxton and company in the bullpen, the Royals would easily find themselves a setup man and closer for 2012 without likely missing a beat. But given what Soria can bring back in trade value, this is a move that likely should and will happen.
Despite denials from both the Blue Jays and Royals, some outlets have reported discussions of a Colby Rasmus for Joakim Soria swap. Not a bad move for either team. I don’t see this trade happening, unless the Royals include another prospect bat (i.e. Wil Myers) and the Blue Jays include a top starting pitching prospect. The Blue Jays have a glut of outfielders in their system, including Jose Bautista, Rasmus, Travis Snider, Eric Thames and Anthony Gose. The Jays can afford to move an outfielder to acquire the closer they seek. The top free agent closer at this point is Heath Bell. At 34-years of age, I would not be terribly excited to give him the 3-year contract he seeks. Plus he would prefer to play on the West Coast? Ryan Madson? To come close to the 4-year, $44 million contract that the Phillies reportedly offered him would be ludicrous, given that he only has 1 full season of closing experience. For the Jays, given age, contract and ability, their top target should be Soria. The team was looking at Papelbon before he signed with the Phillies- a sign that they do not want to grab a closer off the scrapheap. They want the real deal.
Rasmus has the potential to be an all-star and top outfielder for years to come. A big price for the Jays to pay. One that I just don’
t see happening. Rasmus though will be the price unless the Jays can offer a good package for Soria. I think that they have the will and the ability to make this deal happen. Travis Snider will be the first prospect to be included in the package. He has not shown enough in Toronto and likely needs a change of scenery at this point to thrive. The offensive and defensive potential of this young outfielder are still there. At 23-years of age, the Royals would be acquiring a former 1st round pick who should be major league ready for them in 2012. But what else to include? I could see 1-2 pitching prospects heading to Kansas City. But the name I am stuck on is Brandon Morrow. Acquired from the Mariners for Brandon League, the 27-year old Morrow has pitched two fairly inconsistent seasons in the Jays rotation. He has electric stuff, as shown by his 203 strikeouts in 179 1/3 innings this past season. He is an enigma, much like Edwin Jackson. Some of the best stuff in baseball but unable for some reason to consistently put it together for a full season. The 28-year old Jackson will likely obtain a 3-year deal in the $50 million range this offseason. Considering that Morrow is controllable for another 3 seasons, he could be attractive for the Royals as a potential top starter.
The Soria for Morrow and Snider swap should benefit both the Jays and Royals in the short and long term. Some people may be surprised that the Jays would move Morrow. But given the depth of young starters in their system and perhaps waning confidence in Morrow, the time might be right for him to move on. Thames has already moved ahead of Snider on the depth chart, with Gose likely ready in the next couple of seasons. The time is also right for Snider to find a new home and advance his career. I can see the combination of Moustakas, Butler, Snider, Myers and company pounding out runs for the Royals for many seasons. Joakim Soria, on the other hand, could be signed to a long-term deal by the Jays and become the top closer they have craved for at least the next five seasons. A good old fashioned baseball trade that benefits both teams.
So there we have it folks. Jonathan Broxton is likely to become a Royal very soon. If he does come on board, the Royals are in great shape to move Joakim Soria and fill out some needs in their outfield and starting rotation. But even if the Broxton deal falls through, the Royals have the depth to still trade their closer. The Blue Jays, with one of the top systems in baseball, have the pieces to make a deal with the Royals. Don’t count out Alex Anthopoulos and Dayton Moore. These are two of the sharpest GMs in baseball. Neither one will show their hands until they play their cards. Expect a deal to possibly come as soon as the Winter Meetings. The MLB reports crystal ball appears to be very clear on a deal of this magnitude coming. Stay tuned!
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen)
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Should Dale Murphy be Elected into Cooperstown?
Sam Evans: Dale Murphy was one of the best baseball players of the 1980’s. He played in 2180 games, hit .265, with 398 home runs. Now, after twelve years of eligibility, Murphy still has not been voted into the Hall of Fame.
Dale Murphy was not a dominant player during his era. He was a very good player, he won two MVP’s and five straight gold gloves. However, when you look back at his two “peak” years, he only posted a 6.1 WAR in those years combined. We can’t fully be sure of WAR’s (wins above replacement) ability to fully show the defensive prowess of players, but either way that is not impressive enough for a Cooperstown candidate.
On the field, Murphy was an inspiration to others. He truly looked like he wouldn’t rather be anywhere else in the world. Off the field, he wasn’t any different. Just ask Joe Torre, who had this to say about Murphy, “If you’re a coach, you want him as a player. If you’re a father, you want him as a son. If you’re a woman, you want him as a husband. If you’re a kid, you want him as a father. What else can you say about the guy?” Murphy truly was an American hero as evidenced by his Lou Gehrig award and Roberto Clemente award.
From 1980 to 1989, Murphy had more total bases than anyone in the majors. He had a perplexing career in terms of statistics. He never dominated any one category. A typical season from Murphy would look along the lines of: 30 HR, 90 RBI, 130 K, 15 SB, and a .265 AVG. That is a pretty good year by all standards. The player that was most similar to this stat line in 2011, was Jay Bruce of the Cincinnati Reds.
Let’s make one thing clear. Based on his statistics alone, Dale Murphy is definitely not a Hall of Famer. A 44. WAR is not enough for a Hall of Famer. That is in fact less than Red Sox fourth outfielder J.D. Drew. However, if you want to make a case for Murphy’s election by including his contributions to the game of baseball off the field, I can see a stronger case for his candidacy.
Last year, Murphy received only 12.6% of the BBWAA voted for the Hall. He has a long ways to go, in terms of voting, and not a lot of time to do it. I really am indifferent to whether or not Dale Murphy is Hall of Famer. If he makes it in, I will be pleased that his great character and steady numbers had been noticed. The bottom line is that regardless of whether he is eventually elected into Cooperstown, Dale Murphy should always be remembered as a tremendous player that truly was a role model to kids and adults who followed his career. Even if he does not fit the Cooperstown mold, he was one of the top players of his generation and should be regarded as a strong role model for future wave of Major League Baseball players to come.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Sam Evans. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Sam on Twitter.***
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Justin Verlander Wins the 2011 AL Cy Young Award: MVP to Follow
Wednesday November 16, 2011
MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen: Congratulations to Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers, who was the named the 2011 American League Cy Young Award winner on Tuesday. Verlander was the unanimous choice after leading the lead in most key pitching categories. He absolutely had a season for the ages, with a 24-5 record, 251 IP, 34 starts, 250 strikeouts, 2.40 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. This was truly the year of the Verlander and next Monday, the magic is expected to continue with Verlander being named the AL MVP.
We will get to the pitchers being named MVP next week. For the time being at least, nobody could dispute that Justin Verlander was the top pitcher in the AL in 2011. After 7 seasons, Verlander already has 107 wins. At 28-years of age, he has a chance to make a strong run for the next years, health permitting. Signed to a 5-year $79.5 million contract running through 2014, the Tigers have their ace locked up for the next few seasons as they try to maintain a balanced playoff-caliber team. A 4-time All-Star who also a Rookie of the Year Award in his cabinet, the sky is the limit for Justin Verlander. There were other strong pitchers this year in the American League. C.C. Sabathia, Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson, just to name a few. But based on the voting, the award was deservingly given to Verlander. He was truly the best hurler in the American League and deserved to win this award.
This afternoon the American League will be naming its Manager of the Year. This one is expected to go to Joe Maddon of the Tampa Bay Rays, although Jim Leyland of the Tigers and Ron Washington of the Rangers should receive consideration as well. Everyone has awards fever as Major League Baseball continues to hand out its annual hardware into next week. Stay tuned! Free agency is also alive and well with most of the big free agents still yet to sign. MLB reports has you covered and will report all the big signings as they happen.
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen)
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Time Has Come For the Royals to Trade Soria
Tuesday November 15, 2011
MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen: With the free agency season in full swing, some teams may not be happy with the sticker prices on available players. Especially when it comes to pitching, including closers. Jonathan Papelbon recently grabbed $50 million from the Phillies and reports have Ryan Madson looking at a deal in the $40 million range. These figures make existing closers signed to reasonable deals an attractive trade commodity, despite the amount of available relief pitchers on the market. There may be a quantity of closers, but certainly not quality. Outside of Mariano Rivera and Papelbon, there are few sure-fire closers currently in baseball. Enter Joakim Soria of the Kansas City Royals.
A 2-time All-Star, Soria has put up some impressive numbers in his 5 seasons in Kansas City. Two seasons of 40+ saves, Soria has a career 2.40 ERA and 1.043 WHIP. Soria will only be 28 next year and could theoretically be a building block for the next few seasons in Kansas City. However, closers are generally considered to be foundational players. Soria is no exception. 2011 was his most difficult seasons in the majors, as he did save 28 games but put up a 4.03 ERA and 1.276 WHIP (all career worsts). Soria is signed for $6 million this coming season and has 2 more team options at roughly $8 million per season. The Royals are faced with a decision: hold onto their star closer, or cash in while his market is at its peak.
The Royals are on the way up. No doubt about it. Mike Moustakas, Erik Hosmer, Wil Myers, John Lamb and company are expected to come together at the same time to make the Royals the next powerhouse squad. By my estimation, they should be World Series contenders by 2015. But with a couple of more seasons of growing pains ahead, can they afford the luxury of Soria? My argument is no. Soria’s salary in 2012 is still considered a “deal”, but from 2013 go-forward at $8 million, the Royals would be wise to spend their salary dollars in other areas. There are still holes to fill on the squad, including 1-2 more bats and starting pitching. The team will also need to lock up some of its young star players early to avoid unaffordable contract demands down the road. Joakim Soria can bring back a nice haul to fill needs and stock the team for a future championship. The team needs to be realistic of where it is today, where it is going in the future and the players it needs to get there.
The Royals also have options to replace Soria. Aaron Crow (if he is not moved into the rotation) and Tim Collins could all get a shot. Luke Hochevar, who has been hot/cold during his career in the rotation may eventually settle into the bullpen. Options are there. Heck, the Royals plunked Soria from the Rule-5 draft and transformed him from a Padres outcast into a star closer. With the risk of injury and ineffectiveness always hanging over closers, the Royals may be gambling if they hang onto Soria much longer. Another season like 2011 could severely damage his trade value, while he could bring in a nice crop of 2-3 prospects if traded this offseason. The Royals need to do some soul-searching and realize that Soria is worth more in a trade than on their roster.
Teams will surely line-up if Joakim Soria is made available. The Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, Angels, Tigers, Rangers, Nationals and Cardinals would all surely inquire as to his availability. From all reports, the Yankees and Blue Jays are the strongest contenders to land the Royals closer. Don’t get me wrong- I am a Joakim Soria fan. I believe the kid is immensely talented and has the talent and determination to remain a top MLB closer for another decade (health permitting). But on a losing ballclub that is rebuilding, Joakim Soria is a luxury that the Royals simply cannot afford. If the team has to trade a Moustakas or Hosmer given their budget but retain Soria, that would be a big mistake in my estimation. The team needs to build for 2015- not 2012. This offseason represents a golden opportunity for the Royals to continue to replenish its roster and fill more holes. The Melky Cabrera for Jonathan Sanchez was that type of step in the right direction. If Melky was a Prince, it is time for the Royals to flip their King for a pair of Wild Cards. It could prove to be their ultimate winning hand.
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen)
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Kimbrel and Hellickson Named the 2011 AL and NL Rookie Of The Year
Tuesday November 15, 2011
Sam Evans:If you haven’t heard already, on Monday, Major League Baseball announced the rookie of the year winners. Craig Kimbrel won the NL ROY, and Jeremy Hellickson won the AL ROY. Let’s look at the winners and whether or not each deserved their respective awards.
Craig Kimbrel: National League Rookie of the Year:
Craig Kimbrel received a whopping 32 out of 32 first place votes, becoming the 17th player to receive all first place votes. In my opinion, the Atlanta Braves closer Kimbrel definitely deserved this award. He was not only extremely impressive to the eye, but the numbers backed it up. Kimbrel finished with 18 earned runs in 77 innings. He finished with 46 saves and struck out 14.84 K/9. Coming in second place was Kimbrel’s teammate Freddie Freeman with 70 votes, but no first place votes.
I would usually be hesitant to give a closer the award over a player who plays every day. However, Craig Kimbrel is just downright filthy. He might have the best curveball in baseball, and he is only 23 years old. It is impressive for a young flame throwing reliever to be consistent throughout the whole regular season. Not to mention, Braves Manager Fredi González, probably used Kimbrel more than he should have. This was evidenced when Kimbrel had a rough last month of the season with an ERA of 4.76. It should be noted that Kimbrel threw more innings in 2011 then he threw in any one year throughout the minors. Overall, I think that the voters made the right decision here. Kimbrel was the best reliever in all of baseball and was a very valuable asset to his team.
Jeremy Hellickson: American League Rookie of the Year
Hellickson received 17 out of 28 first place votes. This award was a surprise to a lot of people, including Hellickson,””I guess I was a little surprised, there was a handful of guys I think all had the same amount of chance to win.” If you remember back to September, I wrote that I thought Mark Trumbo should win the AL ROY. Well, I admit that I changed my mind since then. I came to the conclusion that either Michael Pineda or Eric Hosmer were more deserving of the award. Trumbo came in second place with 63 votes (5 1st place votes), thirty-nine behind Hellickson.
I can’t say that I was surprised when I heard that Hellickson won the award. After all, he pitches in by far, the strongest division in the league, he almost threw 200 innings, and he had an ERA under 3.00. Unfortunately, when you take a closer look at his peripherals, Hellickson really didn’t have the year that his standard numbers suggest. He had a SIERA (Skill Interactive ERA) of 4.63 and a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 4.44. Who knows what Hellickson’s numbers would have looked like without an outstanding defense behind him! He only struck out 5.57 batters per nine innings, and an 82 LOB %. What these numbers tell us is that Hellickson really had luck on his side and he likely wasn’t even the best rookie pitcher in his division.
I’m not so sure that Hellickson deserved this award. I’m not saying he didn’t have an amazing year helping lead the Rays to the playoffs. I just think that their were stronger candidates to win the ROY award in the AL.
Dustin Ackley: A Look at His Young Career and Bright Future
Sunday November 13, 2011
Sam Evans: Dustin Ackley has one of the brighter futures of all young major leaguers. He has lived up to the hype on every team he’s played on and has yet to appear overmatched in the majors.
Dustin Ackley was born in 1988 in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. In high school we won two state championships in baseball and made honor roll. In 2007, as a freshman at the University of North Carolina, Ackley hit over .400 and started all of his teams 73 games. Ackley, and fellow future first-rounder Alex White, led their team to the College World Series championship but lost to Oregon State. As a sophomore, Ackley just improved, batting .417 on the year.
One thing the average baseball fan doesn’t realize is that Ackley does have a serious injury history. As a junior, he had Tommy John surgery and was forced to play first base for the Tar Heels. Nevertheless, in 2009 he hit .417 again except this time showing off his power hitting 22 home runs. In his three years at North Carolina, Ackley had a OBP of .487, stole more than 10 bases every year, and firmly established his reputation as the best college hitter entering the 2009 draft.
After the consensus #1 pick Stephen Strasburg was selected by the Nationals, the Mariners picked Ackley. It was considered a pretty solid pick and not a stretch by any means. “We think he’s a player that will move pretty quick,” Mariners General Manager Jack Zduriencik said. What’s interesting is that Zduriencik himself actually scouted Ackley in North Carolina, which is rare for a GM living on the other side of the U.S.
The Mariners signed Ackley to a five-year, 7.5 million dollar, major league contract, just before the deadline. Before the 2010 season, the Mariners made a highly criticized move, deciding to move Dustin Ackley, the longtime UNC outfielder, to second base. At the time, most scouts were doubtful of Ackley’s ability to stick at second base.
2010 was an interesting year for Ackley. He got off to a very slow start at AA West Tennessee, but still managed to get on base at a .389 clip, and quieted a couple of whispers about his defense. After 82 games in Tennessee, Ackley was promoted to AAA Tacoma. I was lucky enough to see him a couple of times that year, and he reminded me very much of Tony Gwynn. Obviously, not as developed as a hitter, but he possessed a very mature approach at the plate. Ackley doesn’t go up to the plate trying to hit a homer every time, he just tries to put a good swing on the ball, and get on base. He has an amazing lefty stroke that is quick through the zone.
At the start of the 2011 season, Ackley headed back to Tacoma. In 66 games there, he made it obvious that he was ready for the majors, hitting .303. On June 17, 2011, Ackley made his major league debut. When i heard that Ackley was called up, I made it my first priority to find tickets to the game. I ended up sitting in Section 323 on the first base line. There was a different feel in the usually disinterested Safeco Field that night. The Mariners were playing the Phillies, and Roy Oswalt was taking the mound for the Phils. In Ackley’s first at-bat, with Phillies fans chanting, “OVER RATED,” Ackley singled up the middle. His major-league career just took off from there.
Ackley played 90 games for the Mariners in 2011. He batted .273 with a .348 OBP and a .417 slugging percentage. He also had a OPS+ of 117, and looked solid at second base, committing only six errors and assisting in 49 double plays.
The sky is the limit for Ackley. Scouts are still doubting his ability to play second base, but as long as he stays passable there, the Mariners have their second basemen for the next era.
Ackley could at some point turn in a MVP caliber season, but he’s not especially a power hitter. I think that at his peak he’ll hit about 20 home runs with a .300 average and an OBP around .415. If Ackley stays at his pace from last year, which is actually a legitimate estimate, he will be nearly a 5 WAR player in a full season. Now if only more of his teammates were any good…
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Sam Evans. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Sam on Twitter.***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us onTwitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click hereand follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Phillies Sign Papelbon Over Madson: The Stare Arrives in Philadelphia
Saturday November 12, 2011
MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen: The Philadelphia Phillies seemingly fooled everyone this week. Earlier in the week, reports indicated that the team had locked up its incumbent closer, Ryan Madson for a 4-year, $44 million contract which could climb all the way up to a $57 million deal with an additional option year. Reactions were for the most part negative, as the baseball world could not believe that the team would pay (overpay) for a reliever coming off his first season as a full-time closer by handing out one of the largest contracts ever to a non-starting pitcher. At that money, people began to wonder why the Phillies did not seek out the best closer on the market and one of the best overall in the game, Jonathan Papelbon. The Red Sox closer, after endless 1-year pacts with Boston was in his first free agency period in 2011. But then something interesting happened. The Madson deal, which required the approval of the team’s higher brass all of a sudden was delayed and then fell apart. A couple of days later, Papelbon became a Philly! At 4-years and $50 million, Jonathan Papelbon finally received the long-term deal he has craved all of these years and Philadelphia signed a lock-down closer. But what happened? How did the Phillies switch to Papelbon mid-stream after coming so far along in negotiations with Madson?
The marketing term for what the Phillies did is called a “bait and switch”, meant when a retailer will advertise a discounted product and will then offer you a higher priced replacement when you arrive at the location to find that the advertised good has mysteriously sold out. Often, that discounted good was never actually available, but was a merely a ploy to get the consumer to first get to the store and secondly, buy a more expensive product. In the case of the Philadelphia Phillies, I do not believe that the team ever planned on signing Ryan Madson to the reported high-end contract. While being groomed to be a future for many seasons, the team was never completely sold on his true sustainability at the position. While Madson received the occasional closing opportunities in his 8-year career leading up to 2011, he actually converted only 20 saves going into this season. But something funny happened this season. Madson became solid. So solid, that he saved 32 games with a 2.37 ERA and 1.154 WHIP. With Scott Boras as his agent, the Phillies knew that Madson would not come cheap. But the Phillies faithful for the most part loved Madson and would mourn his departure. The Phillies needed to secure themselves at the closer position while softening the blow of not signing Ryan Madson. The team’s actions this week were a stroke of genius and the team played its cards perfectly.
The plan for 2011 was to have Brad Lidge close for 1 more season, with Ryan Madson as the set-up man and fill-in closer. In the offseason, the Phillies were going to target Jonathan Papelbon and sign him to a large pact. But Lidge was injured and ineffective in 2011, forcing the Phillies to use Madson as their primary closer for most of the season. The reliever that they were hoping to sign for a reasonable 3-years, $21-$24 million deals was about to cost them almost double to retain. But how could the team sign another reliever and let their incumbent closer go? Simple. Propose a deal with Ryan Madson and float the scenario out to the public to record and evaluate the reaction of the public. The possibility existed that the fans, writers and analysts would applaud the deal, in which case the Phillies could consider actually proceeding with it. But in all likelihood, the team knew that the outcry would be against the deal. By then pulling the Madson deal and reaching out to sign Papelbon, the approval rating would be through the roof. It is almost the same as proposing a 20% tax hike and then only increasing taxes by 5%. Throw out a worst-case scenario and set expectations low- then substitute a better plan and watch people jumping for joy.
The Phillies in my estimation used Ryan Madson as a pawn. While Scott Boras has been the master for years at playing teams against one another to benefit the pocketbook of his clients, the Phillies in this case used Boras and Madson to get what they wanted. If the Phillies had gone out right away at the start of free agency to sign Jonathan Papelbon, fans and critics would have blasted the team for overpaying and proposing that the team should have kept Ryan Madson at a hometown discount. The Phillies were able to eliminate such sentiments by showing that Madson would have cost them top dollar to stay put. At an additional $1.5 million per season for the same 4-year contract, the Phillies replaced a closer with 1 full year of closing experience with a closer (Papelbon) who is the same age (31), has 6 full years of full-time closing experience in one of baseball’s biggest and highest pressure markets (Boston) of 30+ saves per season, to go along with an almost perfect postseason resume. The Phillies traded in a solid Buick for a Mercedes, with still plenty of mileage to be driven.
For those of you that may doubt the “conspiracy theory”, just take a close look at the Phillies rotation. Since Spring Training, I have been calling for the Phillies to sign Papelbon. The team has shown to seek out the best pitchers on the market and bring them on board. Roy Halladay. Cliff Lee. Now Jonathan Papelbon. When the Phillies go shopping for pitching, they do not shop in the bargain bin. Aside from obtaining Mariano Rivera, the team signed the best available closer for their staff. So while Ryan Madson would have been a nice luxury to keep on the staff for insurance and to set-up, the team knew it would be seeking Jonathan Papelbon all the way. The plan would have worked to have both Papelbon and Madson on the team, had Madson not closed out so many games this past season. As a middle reliever setting-up, his contract would have been affordable. But an outstanding closing record in 2011 along with Scott Boras as his agent, meant that Madson was priced out of the Phillies budget. With Papelbon set to come on board, there would be no room for Madson.
The Phillies faithful have to be pleased today. While they will miss Ryan Madson, most will know that there was no guarantees he could duplicate his numbers over the life of a 4-5 year contract. At the numbers that were tabled for him to stay in Philadelphia, the team by all accounts did the right thing to sign the superior Papelbon. While he will cost the team its 2012 first-round pick, a pick should be recovered, along with a supplemental pick, when Madson is signed by another team. The cost/benefit of this move was essentially a no-brainer. The Phillies went with more of a sure-thing by signing Papelbon. While there are no guarantees in baseball, especially with pitchers (arm problems) and especially closers (who can lose their jobs at a moment’s notice), Jonathan Papelbon is as money in the bank as they come.
A couple of last points that helped trigger the change of closers. By continually signing 1-year deals in Boston, many expected Papelbon to bolt once he was eligible for free agency. The team could not lock the player down to a long-term deal and with the max-exodus of players during this past offseason, it seemed that Papelbon was another candidate to seek a change of scenery. But some people may not remember that not too long ago that Ryan Madson’s wife, Sarah, making negative comments on Phillies fans. At the time, it seemed like a ticket out-of-town for Madson, but his success this season seemingly made the comments disappear. Except that the Phillies brass did not forget and the publicity that surrounded the event at the time was one that likely set a chain reaction for the plan for Madson to leave at the end of the season. Baseball is a game of short-term memories, but not for all.
When I floated the idea of a Jonathan Papelbon signing all season long, Phillies fans did not have one positive comment back to me. Their fans, as well as most in baseball, had very negative things to say about Papelbon. Outside of Boston it seems, many were unable to or refused to recognize his talent. But while Papelbon was beloved in Boston until now, those sentiments will transfer over to Philadelphia by next season. The stare, as it is known, will become one of the most famed times in Philadelphia Phillies history as the team and its fans get revved up watching Jonathan Papelbon close out games for the next 4-seasons. There is a changing of the guard in Philadelphia. The Phillies have Halladay, Lee and Hamels to start things off and now can rely on Papelbon to close them out. The stare now makes its residence in the city of brotherly love. Another World Series may not be far behind.
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen)
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Mike Maddux: The Next Great MLB Manager and the End of the Rangers
Saturday November 5, 2011
MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen: I rarely get excited about coaches in the game. Not for the reasons that you may think. Many coaches are great at their craft. But most MLB coaches work behind the scenes and are rarely heard from or spoken to. In the MLB revolving door game, it seems that many players, as well as coaches, are seen be teams as interchangeable commodities. When teams hit slumps or fail to meet expectations, it is easier to change the coach(es)/manager than it is to replace twenty-five players on the roster. So when a coach stands out and gets me excited, you know that he is a game-changer in my opinion. Two such coaches currently exist in the ranks. Both are pitching coaches and both are being reviewed for changes in employment. The first is Dave Duncan in St. Louis and the second is Mike Maddux in Texas.
With the retirement of Tony La Russa in St. Louis, many have wondered as to the future of his former pitching coach, Dave Duncan. Widely seen as one of the best in the business, Duncan’s control and shaping of his pitching staff is seen as one of the overriding factors in helping Tony La Russa achieve his success in the game. No Duncan = inferior pitching = no championships. This is the man who took Jeff Weaver and Joel Pineiro and made them into the second coming of Cy Young. Ok…so many Duncan isn’t such an effective miracle worker. But the man is damn good at what he does and all else being equal, there would be 29 other teams that would love to discuss employment if he was available. But rather than seek a managerial position, Duncan- who start coaching in the late 1970s with Cleveland, has indicated that he will be honoring his contract and remain the pitching coach in St. Louis. The man clearly knows his strengths and his goals in the game. For the future manager of St. Louis, he will be inheriting a right-hand man to guide his pitchers like no others.
Well…with the exception of one man perhaps. While Duncan is seen as one of the game’s greatest pitching coaches of all time- Mike Maddux has grown into the being the next best coach, if not “the” best. In his 9 seasons as pitching coach, Maddux has successfully transformed the Brewers pitching staff (during his time in Milwaukee) into one of the best in the game. From there, Maddux has taken a Rangers squad that has been known seemingly forever as being all bats and no arms. The Rangers have had one of the worst statistical pitching staffs for much of its stay in Texas. Maddux has successfully lowered the team ERA every year in the past three years and has helped transform the Rangers pitchers into stars. C.J. has gone from middle reliever/occasional closer into the staff ace. Alexi Ogando excelled in the rotation, as has Neftali Feliz as closer. Some may argue that the Rangers have more pitching talent in the history of organization. That may be true on many levels, but the team still plays half of its games in one of the most dangerous hitters’ ballparks in baseball. By working his magic with the Rangers pitching staff, considering its home ballpark, Mike Maddux is a miracle worker to me.
It is my understanding that Mike Maddux is the highest, or one of the highest paid pitching coaches in the game. To get him to leave his status in Texas, he would need to be offered a strong position that presented a challenging and rewarding opportunity in the game. As the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox both come calling this week, Mike Maddux will likely be choosing soon whether he is ready to take on the top leadership on the field of one of the two top franchises in the game. The Rangers have already granted Maddux permission, as Nolan Ryan and company do not wish to stand in the way of Mike Maddux’s success. With Ron Washington leading the Rangers to two straight World Series appearances, the managerial position was unlikely to be offered to Maddux any time soon in Texas. So the draw will likely come down to Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer in Chicago convincing Maddux to lead the Cubs, while Ben Cherington does the same in Boston.
Is Mike Maddux up for the role? Hard to say. A great pitching coach won’t necessarily lead to success as a manager. But Maddux has
many of the essential intangibles for success. He is known as a hard worker, dependable, well liked but respected by his players. For all the years I have watched him, he always seemed to be a calming influence over his pitchers. If he can exercise that same attitude for the other coaches of a team and its players, we may be forming the next great MLB manager. Other managerial positions may open up, but for the time being, it appears that the Cubs and Red Sox have the edge in luring him away from Texas. Both are major markets and present the chance to build/groom winning ball clubs. The Red Sox have more talent, but also have the older squad with referenced difficult players and personalities to manage. The Cubs, while younger and less talented, may be more moldeable for Maddux if named manager.
Mike Maddux did pitch for the Red Sox over two seasons. While he never played in Chicago, he will know the Cubs and Wrigley well from his Brewers coaching days. Mike’s younger brother, Greg was a star pitcher for many years for the Cubs and can give him much insight into the team. The decision will boil down to fit. Does Mike Maddux want to manage? Likely, the answer is yes. With his experience and reputation at the game, it will be difficult to not want to take on the job of a lifetime. Money will be no object, as both squads could offer Maddux 3-5 year contracts at approximately $3 million per season. So the answer will come down to where Maddux would most want to manage. The answer will likely be Chicago.
Having coached in the division for some time and having his brother’s experiences as a strong influence, I see Mike Maddux being attracted to being a manager in Wrigley. For all its talent and fandom, the mix of veterans and difficult personalities will likely be more than Maddux as a rookie manager will want to handle. The Cubs, with more youth present a bigger challenge for Maddux. Yet, the team will also likely be more moldeable under him. Mike Maddux looks to me like a long-term thinker. After taking the Rangers youngsters and turning their pitchers into stars, Maddux will likely want to do the same in Chicago. Both teams will go aggressively after him, but at the end of the day, I expect Maddux to be wearing the “C” cap by opening day. Theo Epstein started the groundwork for Mike Maddux while still running the Red Sox. He seems to be a sharp guy and what Theo wants, he usually gets. As the Jays denied the opportunity for John Farrell to be available, Epstein will now need to seek another former pitching coach turned manager. Mike Maddux appears to be his man.
What does this all mean for the Texas Rangers? I can’t say they will regress back to the old poor pitching squad of yesteryear, but I certainly think the team will suffer greatly if Mike Maddux departs. As today’s MLB is strongly built on pitching, the Rangers would be losing their not-so-secret weapon if Mike Maddux was to jump ship. This is a loss that the team most cannot afford to occur. All else being equal, retaining Mike Maddux in my opinion is more important than having C.J. Wilson on the squad. This is the value of Mike Maddux. But after giving Maddux the biggest coach’s contract to come Texas, there is little the Rangers can do to keep Mike Maddux as they cannot offer him a promotion. Nolan Ryan would need to be very creative if he had hoped to keep his pitching coach. But at the end of the day, money is one factor. Job title is another. The Rangers clearly have realized this as they granted teams permission to talk to Mike Maddux. While showing good faith in rewarding their pitching coach for a job well done, the team is likely shooting itself in the foot and risking its long-term viability if Mike Maddux does end up leaving.
I expect Mike Maddux to be successful wherever he goes. If he joins the Cubs or Red Sox, it is almost guaranteed that the team will have a fantastic pitching staff. Will the rest of the team excel and contend? A good question, which will come down to whether Mike Maddux surrounds himself with smart coaches as a manager. For the 50-year old Maddux with the younger brother who is a future hall-of-famer, he is clearly building his own legacy in the game. My expectation is that we will have an announcement in the next 7-10 days, confirming Mike Maddux as the new manager for either the Cubs or Red Sox. If that is the case, expect those teams to be playoff regulars in the near future. In the same token, expect the Rangers run of World Series appearances to end as soon as Mike Maddux to leave. He may not have been their everything, but should he depart, the secret weapon of the Rangers will disappear as well. Good luck to Mike Maddux: he has exciting but difficult decisions to make in the near future.
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen)
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A Tribute to Steve Karsay: MLB Pitcher and Warrior
Thursday November 3, 2011
MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen: In the world of baseball journalism, it is very important for one to separate the roles of writer/commentator/analyst from fandom. For those of us that write about the great game of baseball, it is the majority of the time for the pure love of the sport. We love every aspect of baseball and while the job requires long hours and a great deal of hard work, it is all worth it because the work centers around a dear passion for all of us. Each piece we prepare though rarely contains a personal vested interest. We write about a subject. We discuss the different aspects of the topic and will usually include our own viewpoints. But when the subject matter contains an emotional attachment, it can make the experience that much more rewarding.
As the Lead Baseball Columnist for MLB reports, I have had the privilege and honor of interviewing many of the game’s up and coming prospects and stars. When I found out though my latest interviewee, I have to admit that I had some goosebumps. Steve Karsay is a name that is well-known in baseball circles. A veteran of eleven major league seasons, Steve played for five major league teams between 1993-2006. Growing up in Toronto, I knew Steve early on in his career as a 1st round pick (22nd overall) in the 1990 draft. At 6’3″ and 210 lbs, Steve coming up was labelled a “can’t miss” prospect. I will admit that I followed his career from his debut with the A’s and later retiring with the same Oakland squad. In between, Steve suffered through a variety of injuries and surgeries, including Tommy John in 1996. The reason that I rooted for Steve Karsay was his resiliancy. The man overcame great adversities and was able to transform himself into a successful major league pitcher. I respect players with ability and heart- and you will be hard pressed to find anyone that can match those qualities as found in Steve Karsay.
Any discussion on Steve Karsay has to begin with the start of his career. Despite being drafted by the Jays, Steve actually made his major league debut with the Oakland Athletics. As part of the Jays 2nd World Series run in 1993, Toronto traded Steve Karsay with Jose Herrera for hall-of-fame outfielder, Rickey Henderson. Getting traded for a player with Henderson’s pedigree before even throwing a major league pitch has to be a nice complement. If nothing else, it will always be a story that Steve will be able to share with his grandchildren. With great expectations on him, Steve was not able to deliver on the promise of stardom as an A’s starter. Injuries never allowed him to get on track and Karsay moved from the A’s to the Indians as a reliever. In his first full healthy season as a reliever in 1999, Karsay flourished in Cleveland. He finished that year with a 10-2 record, 2.97 ERA and 1.284 WHIP. The following year, Karsay saved a career high 20 games for the Indians. Karsay continued to flourish, excelling for the Braves in the 2001 postseason and for the Yankees in the 2002 season.
Shoulder surgery in 2003 set Steve back another season. He came back to play part seasons from 2004-2006, when he finally called it a
career. Karsay left the game with solid major league numbers and a resume to be proud of. When I think of Steve Karsay, I will always think “what could have been”. What if injuries and surgeries had not been a part of his career. Could we have seen a 300 game winner in Oakland? Or perhaps a 300 save closer as his role evolved? We will never know what paths Steve Karsay’s career could have taken, had his body allowed him to fulfill his potential. But considering the battles and adversities he faced, Steve Karsay can look back on his career with pride. Countless pitchers with fewer injuries over the years never made it to the show to even throw a major league pitch. Rather than enjoy the occasional cup of coffee, Steve Karsay was able to battle through and enjoy a lengthy and productive career. Watching him in his prime, he was as solid of a major league reliever as I have seen in my time.
Coming up on MLB reports, we will hear from Steve Karsay directly. I recently interviewed Steve and covered many topics with him, including his career, the Rickey trade and his baseball future. It was a pleasure to speak with Steve and hear what he had to say. If you enjoy baseball discussions, stay tuned for my exclusive interview with Steve Karsay.
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen)
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Where Will C.J. Wilson Pitch in 2012?
Thursday November 3, 2011
Sam Evans: Seven years ago, it looked like C.J. Wilson might never pitch in the big leagues after missing the 2004 season due to injury. Fast forward to the 2011 offseason, and he is the most desired starting pitcher on the free agent market. He has been the Rangers best starter for the last two years. Now, Rangers fans have to wonder if he’ll be back in Texas in 2012.
C.J. Wilson was drafted out of Loyola Marymount University by the Texas Rangers in the fifth round of the 2001 Draft. The next couple years showed signs of promise for Wilson as he moved all the way up to Double-A, after just one year playing in the lower minors. Unfortunately, he needed Tommy John Surgery which kept him out for parts of the 2003 season, and all of the 2004 season. In 2005, he pitched in 48 innings for the Rangers but posted a 6.94 ERA. From 2006-2006, Wilson pitched out of the bullpen for the Rangers. He was never spectacular but he recorded 52 saves and gave the Rangers an above-average bullpen arm.
Before the 2010 season, Wilson, behind the support of pitching coach Mike Maddux, earned a role in the Rangers starting rotation. Everything took off from there as Wilson became the Rangers best starter and he has been their best pitcher the last two years. He has posted an ERA under 3.35 these last two years while throwing over 420 innings. He has been one of the best pitchers in baseball the last two years despite pitching half of his games at the hitter’s paradise also known as The Ballpark in Arlington.
The main knock on Wilson is that he can’t win the big game. This is a real issue because most teams willing to shell out the big money for Wilson are likely playoff contenders. I think that part of this has just been bad luck for Wilson. Another factor might be that he has started 77 games over the last two years. I think this recent postseason Wilson was just exhausted from the regular season. I think that some teams will look at Wilson differently after his performances this postseason but it shouldn’t be a huge issue.
C.J. Wilson is currently a free agent and the best starter available.The Nationals are rumored to be interested and they scouted Wilson in September this year. I think that Washington might be a good fit for Wilson to mentor young studs Stephen Strasburg, Brad Peacock, and Jordan Zimmerman. However, I don’t know if the Nationals really can compete with the other teams on a financial basis.If they could come up with the money ( they do have one of the richest owners in baseball) then I’d expect them to compete with the other top bidders.
The Yankees don’t seem to be too interested in Wilson but they might look elsewhere for the front of the line starter. In October, it was reported that the Yankees prefer Yu Darvish to C.J. Wilson. I think this is crazy that they would value a 25-year-old who hasn’t thrown one MLB pitch over a 31-year-old who has been worth more WAR than any Yankees starter under 300 pounds. Yet, according to Joel Sherman, one Yankees decision-maker considers Wilson a #4 starter on a championship team.
Other dark horse candidates for the Wilson bidding include the Royals, Cubs, Marlins, Blue Jays and Red Sox. The most likely team to land Wilson is the Texas Rangers. C.J. has made it clear that he wants to pitch for the Rangers. Wilson was recently quoted saying that there is a “great chance” that he would be pitching for the Rangers next year.
As for how much money he’ll get, I don’t think Wilson will get a $100M deal- but $85 million isn’t out of the question. Wilson sounds like he shouldn’t take too long to make up his mind on who to sign with. The odds are that we will see C.J. Wilson back in a Rangers jersey not only next year, but for many years to come.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Sam Evans. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Sam on Twitter.***
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Sabathia and the Yankees: Did anyone ‘CC’ this coming?
Tuesday November 1, 2011
April Whitzman (Blue Jays and Prospects Writer – MLB reports): At the stroke of midnight, C.C. Sabathia wouldn’t have turned into a pumpkin, but the Yankees had the potential of not getting the fairy tale they wanted.
But, lo and behold, a fairy godmother appeared, in the form of a signed contract, which showed that C.C. Sabathia would accept a new deal and remain with the New York Yankees. The new deal also had the effect of adding 30 million dollars to his bottom line.
As such, Sabathia did not become a free agent. But at what cost?
Sabathia already had $92 million left on the old contract, or, in layman’s terms, about $23 million a year. Now, the new deal increases his salary to $25 million for 2016 and also gives the Yankees a $25 million option for 2017 with a $5 million buyout (depending on whether Sabathia can stay healthy in 2016).
Was the money worth it? At a quick glance it would appear that the money is well-spent for the Yankees. In fact, since signing a $161-million, seven-year deal with the Yankees in 2009, Sabathia has gone 59-23 with a 3.18 ERA during the regular season for the Yankees.
But that’s not the only reason that the money was well spent for the Yankees.
I
f the Yankees would not have been able to convince Sabathia to stay, their rotation (as it stands now) would have consisted of A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova and unless some offseason trading or signing occurs, likely David Phelps and Hector Noesi.
Had Sabathia not signed, the Yankees would have been even more likely to chase any and all free agent starting pitchers on the market, including C.J. Wilson of the Rangers, and Japanese phenom (who the Blue Jays and Rangers are currently rumored to be targeting), Yu Darvish.
Fortunately for the Yankees, Sabathia did agree to sign. But I would not assume that the Yankees have stopped their search for additional starting pitchers to beef up their rotation. Rather far from it. In order to get over the hump, the Yankees will need to acquire complimentary pieces to their existing ace pitcher.
But with that being said, can one even imagine what would have happened if Sabathia had not stayed in New York? And if perhaps some other team came and swept Sabathia off his feet during the upcoming free agency courting period?
If Sabathia had opted out of his contract and become a free agent, it would be interesting to review which teams could have been the
right fit for the Yankees’ ace. Potential suitors could have included the Nationals, who already are developing a young up-and-coming team with a stellar rotation. It could have also been the Red Sox, as after the Tommy John surgery to John Lackey, also require more depth to their rotation. Finally, the Los Angeles Angels could have been a suitable destination, because as was saw last year with Vernon Wells, the Angels do not care about the price. Rather the team looks at the quality of the player (in effect, taking the player they want at any price). The Angels could have been a very strong suitor for Sabathia location-wise, given that CC is a California native.
Overall though, despite the fact that he was born in California, Sabathia admitted that his family has now made New York their home. Sabathia moved his family to New Jersey and is an active member of the local community. So much like the end of every fairy tale, CC of course, will live happily ever after. Then again, making $122 million over the next five years, with the potential for $147 million ver six years, certainly helps!
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Robinson Cano, Scott Boras and the Yankees: Time to Renegotiate?
Thursday October 27, 2011
MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen: An interesting news story caught my eye today. Scott Boras, agent to superstar second baseman Robinson Cano, contacted the New York Yankees to discuss renegotiating Cano’s contract. Cano signed a 4-year contract for $30 million, with a $14 million option in 2012 and $15 million in 2013. A fair chunk of change in my estimation. After successfully tweaking the Francisco Rodriguez contract upon his trade to Milwaukee, Boras is back at it again. This time, he would like for the Yankees to rip up the team options for Cano and negotiate a new contract.
After a down year in 2008, Cano has been climbing since to upper-ranks of baseball stardom. This past season was one of Cano’s finest. Cano hit 28 home runs with 118 RBIs, 104 runs scored, batting .302 with a .349 OBP and .533 SLG. Fantastic numbers, without a doubt. The only blemish in my estimation is the continued knock on Robinson. He only walked 38 times while striking out a career high 96 times. For Cano to reach the next level, his BB/K ratio will need to reach the next level. But considering his overall numbers, the Yankees will live with Cano if he maintains his current levels. The secret for Cano is that he plays a premium position (2B) and is young (29). For an aging Yankees, Cano is a building block for the next 5 seasons. The question is whether he is worth locking up at this point.
I don’t fault Scott Boras for attempting to get Cano a bigger contract at this point. A down year could easily cost Cano tens of millions of dollars. Cano is also comfortable in New York and the Yankees fans love him. Boras is counting on the hometown team wanting to lock up its own rather than risk losing him to free agency down the road. Scott Boras making such a call is a smart move- he is doing his job. I am unsure if the timing is right though on this move. We are entering a tricky time in baseball. The Yankees were burnt by Alex Rodriguez in the past when he opted out of his contract and essentially forced the team to give him an exorbitant contract that has turned sour quickly. The Yankees are facing the same dilemma with staff ace, C.C. Sabathia. The big man can opt out of his Yankees deal soon and word is that he is looking for a bigger share of the pie from the Yankees to stay put. The Yankees, in making the decision on Sabathia, are thinking to the past decision they made on A-Rod. There are parallels to the scenarios and the team may not be so keen on pulling out the wallet this time around. With the uncertainty and bad feelings surrounding the upcoming Sabathia decision, the last thing the team wanted or needed was the Cano headache. The team knew that they could retain their player for 2 further seasons and delay contract talks for some time. Demanding a new contract at this juncture may not be seen as favorable by the team’s brass.
On the other hand, Boras may have picked the perfect time to talk turkey with the Yankees. Aside from the Sabathia decision, the
Yankees have to decide whether to pick up the option on Nick Swisher. Boras may have sensed that by waiting to bring up Cano’s contract, the Yankees may have proceeded to lock up Sabathia and retained Swisher, as well as signed a free agent or two. By then, the team’s budget (yes, they do have one contrary to reports) would be squeezed and Cano would have been put on hold. By raising the issue now, Boras may be trying to grab the wallet while the dollar bills are still warm. An interesting strategy and one that may not be unreasonable.
No matter where this saga leads, we now one thing is certain. Robinson Cano will be a New York Yankee for at least 2 more seasons- and likely longer. I would like to raise the point that when an athlete like Cano is playing well, the player and agent have no issue trying to renegotiate terms and grab more money. But when a player is playing poorly, he will usually have no problems to continuing collecting his paycheque no matter how large the contract with no refunds to the team. The only exception is Kenji Johjima, who left millions of dollars on the table in Seattle to return to Japan, as he felt his play did not justify his pay. A rare, honourable move by a classy individual, but definitely the exception to the rule. Instead, we are in a different age of baseball. Even general managers (see Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer), are moving on to new teams and bigger contracts despite having existing contracts in place with their old teams. If management can break their commitments, surely players can as well.
As much as we all love baseball, it is first and foremost a business. Robinson Cano and Scott Boras are doing what is best for the player in this case. In other years, I could see how the Yankees could give in to such a request. But considering the blunder of the A-Rod deal and the issues surrounding Sabathia in his opt-out, my feeling has enough on its plate without worrying about Cano’s contract status. I expect Robinson Cano to have at least one of his option years picked him. Perhaps the Yankees will renegotiate with him in 2012 or wait until he becomes a free agent. The dollars will come to Robinson Cano. Just not in the timing that he and his agent hope. At some point I would like to see players honor their contracts and let their play do the talking. With solid numbers on the field, the contracts will inevitably follow. But in the “pay me now” age that we live in, news of Cano’s request should come as no surprise. But answer me this: what is the point of signing long-term contracts if they rarely work? One side will either want more money or the other side will end up regretting it. Rarely are there two happy parties by the time the big deals are all said and done. If Cano gets out of his deal because he deserves more money, can the Red Sox get out of their contract with John Lackey because they overpaid? Welcome to the strange economics that is Major League Baseball.
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports
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John Lackey to Undergo Tommy John Surgery: The Aftermath in Boston
Wednesday October 26, 2011
MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen: The Boston Red Sox announced this week that starting pitching John Lackey would be undergoing Tommy John surgery, ending his 2012 season before it began. In a twist of irony, this move actually comes as relief to Red Sox nation as Lackey has been anything but stellar since coming to Boston.
In 8 seasons with the Angels, Lackey had a 102-71 record, good for a 3.81 ERA and 1.306 WHIP. In his past 2 seasons with the Red Sox, Lackey’s numbers ballooned to a 26-23 record, with an unsightly 5.26 ERA and 1.504 WHIP. Lackey’s winning record in Boston is attributable more to the Red Sox strong offense, rather than Lackey’s own production. 2011 was a miserable season statistically for Lackey with 2012 not looking much promising either.
In hindsight, John Lackey’s contract is one of the worst in baseball. Lackey is signed to a 5-year, $82.5 million deal running through 2014. For the final 3 years (2012-14), Lackey will get paid $15,250,000 per season. The one bit of relief to the Red Sox is that the injury kicks in a 2015 vesting option, whereby Lackey will only be paid $500K for that season. A small consolation given the magnitude of the money and disappointing numbers from Lackey to-date.
For whatever reason(s), the relationship between John Lackey and the Boston Red Sox is not working out. Lackey has battled personal issues while in Boston, including his wife’s health and battle with Cancer. While clearly we can all sympathize with Lackey’s difficulties in playing while dealing with personal issues, the reports from the end of the season of his involvement with drinking in the clubhouse and eating fried chicken during games brings into question Lackey’s commitment and focus to the team and game. Before news of his surgery, many outlets were reported that the Red Sox were actively shopping Lackey in the hopes of removing him from the team. A strong rumor was a swap with the Padres and reuniting Lackey with his old pitching coach from his Angels’ days, Bud Black. The Padres and Petco would have been an ideal environment for Lackey, provided that the Red Sox would have picked up the majority of his contract in the deal.
But the reconstructive elbow surgery has brough the Lackey rumors to a halt. He will be staying in Boston for the foreseeable future. The Red Sox have faced bad luck this year with Tommy John, as pitchers Daisuke Matsuzaka and Rich Hill both underwent the same procedure in 2011. Theo Epstein was wise to include the injury provision in the Lackey contract; but then again, he may have been better off avoiding the pitcher all-together. News of the Lackey injury was the first announcement by Ben Cherington as the new Red Sox GM. From all the offseason transactions and news that will follow in Boston, this one will be taken as one of the more positive moves.
The Red Sox have many decisions facing them this offseason. The re-signing of David Ortiz and Jonathan Papelbon. The
integration and structure of the organization with a new GM. The hiring of a new manager. The departure of J.D. Drew and possibly Marco Scutaro. The comeback of Carl Crawford. These are surely hectic times in Boston. The team will need to make many roster changes for 2012, including the signing of 1-2 new starting pitchers. The injury to Lackey could prove to be a blessing in disguise. The surgery may pinpoint that his terrible numbers in Boston were based more on declining health than eroding skills. With a year-off to rehabilitate and re-energize, the Red Sox may see a new and focused John Lackey. The team would have had to eat most of his contract to trade him; perhaps they are better off paying and playing him.
In the worst case scenario, the Red Sox will need to either trade or release John Lackey between now and 2014, if they do not believe that he can rebound and be a useful asset for the team. There is always the chance that Lackey is not able to recapture the form he displayed back in his Angels days. Also, there may be enough bad feelings between the player and organization that a fresh start will be in order. At this point, the Red Sox are best off to take a “break” so to speak for a year from John Lackey. Come to 2013, the team may find that they have a new valuable asset that they never counted on. John Lackey at the end of the day is a classic example of the risk involved handing a 30 something year-old pitcher a 4+ years contract for big dollars. The Red Sox in this case gambled and lost. But at least the decision can be put off for a year whether to write John Lackey off completely or try to recover pennies on the dollar. I wish John Lackey a successful surgery and healthy recovery. While I don’t expect to see him emerge as a MLB ace upon his return, my sense is that we will see an older and wiser John Lackey on the mound. The talent has always been there. Now he just needs to find the health and heart to fulfill the remainder of his potential.
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports
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David Ortiz to the Jays or Yankees? Try the Rays or Angels
Monday October 17, 2011
MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen: With the World Series all set to commence on Wednesday (Cardinals and Rangers)- our attention is slowly shifting to the upcoming free agency period. A big name (literally) of discussion has been David Ortiz, or better known in baseball circles as “Big Papi”. The rumor mill is running wild as to where Ortiz will play in 2012. Let’s shed some light on the subject and clear up the confusion.
The soon to be 36-year old Ortiz is coming off one of his finest seasons in recent memory. Papi finished with a steady all-around season: 29 home runs, 96 RBIs, 84 runs, 78/83 BB/K, .309 AVG and .953 OPS. Ortiz was named to his 7th all-star team and finishing up a 5-year, $64.5 million contract. For a player that appeared to be in decline back in 2009, Ortiz has shown the last two seasons that he has some juice left in the tank. But with the Red Sox in shambles, given the departure of long-time manager Terry Francona and soon to be ex-GM Theo Epstein, Ortiz himself has said that Boston has become too much of a soap opera. The question on every baseball fan’s mind: will he stay or will he go?
The Ortiz decision to stay in Boston will largely depend on several factors. Firstly, it is unclear whether the team wishes to retain him or go in a different direction. As an aging team with hitters that could use the rest from playing in the field every day, the Red Sox may not longer wish to commit the DH spot to one exclusive batter. Taking that into account with Papi’s streaks and slumps that past few years and recent comments, may be enough for the Red Sox upper management to wish to move on. But if the team does wish to retain him, or give in to fan pressure to keep Ortiz (which is likely to come given his immense popularity), will Papi himself want to remain in Boston? Only the man could answer that question. To know the answer, one would have to get into the player’s head. Does Otiz get along with his teammates or are there divided fractions? How much did the 2011 collapse take a toll on his morale? When will a new GM come into place and will he be able to have a good relationship with Ortiz? Same issue for a new manager…and you get the idea. There are many variables that put into question whether Ortiz could or would stay in Boston.
In my estimation, Ortiz is on his final contract. He will likely obtain a 2-year contract, with an option for a third. Based on his rich history and legacy in Boston, I think that when push comes to shove- the player will stay. Boston needs Papi; and Papi needs Boston. It would not feel right to see Ortiz in another uniform (check out highlights from his days in Minnesota and you will see what I mean). Major League Baseball also would love to see Ortiz remain in Boston for marketing purposes. With so many vested interests in getting this deal done, I believe it will happen. But what if it does not? What if Papi jumps ship? I see his options as far and few between.
The first option that jumped out was the Yankees. It will not happen. While the Yankees would love to stick it to Boston, they will not likely want another aging DH on their hands after the Jorge Posada fiasco this past season. The Yankees also have Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira and company that need days off the field, A-Rod especially given his failing health. With A-Rod becoming a part-time DH as soon as next year, the Yankees cannot afford to take on Papi at this stage. Plus the team has up-and-coming superstar Jesus Montero that needs playing time and has nothing more to prove in AAA. So the Yankees rate as a no.
The next options for Ortiz? It will only be American League teams as he is only a DH at this stage of his career. The only realistic teams that have the open position and fit are Toronto, Tampa Bay and Anaheim. The Jays are being thrown around many circles as a possible destination. It makes sense for several reasons. Ortiz knows the ballpark well from his AL East days. He gets along well with Jose Bautista and would serve as a great mentor for the Jays young hitters. Toronto was missing production last season from the DH spot and would welcome Papi’s bat. But despite these factors, I don’t see this signing happening. Ortiz will want to play on a contender and fight for another ring. His career is winding down and so are his chances. While Toronto has a strong young nucleus, they are at least 2-3 years aways. As much as this would be a feel-good signing, I would rate is as another no.
Thus the battle for the services of David Ortiz will boil down to the Tampa Bay Rays and Anaheim Angels. Two strong playoff contending teams that desperately need his bat. Tampa Bay should be the favorite, given the familiarity of the AL East and the strong need of the team. The Rays have the lineup spot for Ortiz and should make a big push for him. The Angels have the same need, but not the best fit for position. The team has a logjam in the outfield with Mike Trout likely to be with the big club next year and Kendrys Morales returning to the team from injury. But when there is a will, there is a way. Like many other squads, the Angels would need to do some creative shuffling to make room for Ortiz. Vernon Wells may need to be moved for a bad pitcher’s contract in return (Carlos Zambrano anyone?) Kendrys Morales may not be recovered or Trout may not be ready. The Angels went through a desperate need all year in 2011 for runs and will not want to face the same issue come 2012. Papi could be the perfect short-term solution for the Halos.
The four-horse race to sign David Ortiz will come down to the Red Sox, Jays, Rays and Angels. The Rays are my dark horse favorite and best overall fit. The Jays would love to take him on, it will just depend on the confidence Papi has in the team’s ability to compete. Boston will hang in right till the end and the Angels will need to be aggressive to get him. If we are playing the odds, I would rate Boston as a 70% favorite, followed by Tampa Bay at 20% and the Jays/Angels at 5% each. Once the World Series ends, let the David Ortiz sweepstakes begin!
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports
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Ian Kadish MLB Guest Blog: Part 2 – Offseason and Expectations for 2012
Monday October 3, 2011
MLB reports: We welcome back Blue Jays prospect Ian Kadish to MLB reports. The right-handed pitcher pitched for the Bluefield Blue Jays in the Rookie Appalachian League in 2011. With a 2-3 record, 7 saves, 2.67 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, and 11/35 BB/K, the 23-year-old Kadish showed some very strong numbers pitching in the pen in his first professional season. With a bright baseball future ahead, we are proud to announce that Ian has agreed to become a regular MLB Guest Blogger on the Reports, describing his baseball journey for our readers. In his own words, we present part 2 of 2 of our featured guest blog of Ian Kadish, the offseason and his expections for the 2012 season:
Ian Kadish (Guest MLB Blogger): So MLB Reports asked me to do another blog entry because there was good feedback on the first one. This will be a 2-part entry, the first part looking back at my 2011 season and how it went and the second part will be about what my offseason will consist of and my expectations for 2012.
Part 2 – Offseason and Expectations for 2012
This offseason, I am back in Huntington, West Virginia. Marshall is located in Huntington and there are a few different reasons why I chose to come back even though I graduated last May. The biggest reason I chose to come back is due to the fact that I would have a great gym to train at for free. The Strength and Conditioning Coach that I had in college told me I could train there in the offseason for free if I wanted to. The pitching coach at Marshall also told me that I could come throw with him whenever I wanted/needed to. He offered to have somebody catch my bullpens when the time came and he also said I could face some hitters before I left for Spring Training, which will be a great help. That makes it so much easier for me rather than being at home because I would have to find a gym in Cincinnati and pay a monthly fee and more than likely the gym wouldn’t have everything I needed. I also would be scrambling to find somebody/somewhere to throw when the time came.
After a long college season, followed by another professional short-season, I gave my body a week off to recuperate from all the wear
and tear of the baseball season. This offseason, my plan is to hit the weight room hard in order to become bigger, faster, and stronger in a baseball pitching aspect. The Blue Jays gave everybody in the organization a big booklet with specific workouts in them. I have specific goals that I am wishing to achieve in the offseason. I also want to improve on my flaws not only in the weight room, but on the field as well. I am going to take time off from throwing to give my arm a rest, but not too long of a rest because I can’t use spring training as a time for my arm to get in shape. I need to go to spring training 100% ready to go…
Aside from training in the offseason, I got a job working at Dick’s Sporting Goods. It’s just like a Sports Authority or any other sporting good store like that. I wanted to get a job because I do not want to rely on my parents for everything. Many minor league players have to get a job in the offseason because not everybody signs a large signing bonus so it is not uncommon to get an offseason job. I am actually looking forward to it because it will keep me busy when I am not training.
My expectations are just like any other minor league player’s expectations. We all have goals we want to achieve and we all have dreams we want to come true. I’m no different. I am very hard on myself and push my body to great lengths, almost to failure because I know it will pay off during the season. The work I put in off the field will prepare me for every situation on field. There are specific expectations/goals that I have. Of course, one of them is to hopefully receive a promotion, but before I can do that I have to better myself. I’m going to work extremely hard this offseason, harder than I have ever worked because that’s all I know. I have worked extremely hard to get to this point and I am still not satisfied… I’m going to get after it and hopefully the hard work will pay off…
Thank you to Ian Kadish for preparing today’s MLB Guest Blog. Please feel free to contact Ian on Twitter (@BearJew36) or through his website (http://livinginthelifeofian.blogspot.com) for comments and questions. We also thank Ian for sharing the photographs used in today’s feature from his own private collection.
Previous Ian Kadish Guest MLB Blog Entries on MLB reports:
Ian Kadish Guest MLB Blog: Part 1 – Recap of My 2011 Season September 30, 2011
Ian Kadish Guest MLB Blog: My Baseball Journey September 11, 2011
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Ian Kadish MLB Guest Blog: Part 1 – Recap of My 2011 Season
Friday September 30, 2011
MLB reports: We welcome back Blue Jays prospect Ian Kadish to MLB reports. The right-handed pitcher pitched for the Bluefield Blue Jays in the Rookie Appalachian League in 2011. With a 2-3 record, 7 saves, 2.67 ERA, 1.154 WHIP, and 11/35 BB/K, the 23-year-old Kadish showed some very strong numbers pitching in the pen in his first professional season. With a bright baseball future ahead, we are proud to announce that Ian has agreed to become a regular MLB Guest Blogger on the Reports, describing his baseball journey for our readers. In his own words, we present part 1 of 2 of our featured guest blog of Ian Kadish, the recap of his 2011 season:
Ian Kadish (Guest MLB Blogger): So MLB Reports asked me to do another blog entry because there was good feedback on the first one. This will be a 2-part entry, the first part looking back at my 2011 season and how it went and the second part will be about what my offseason will consist of and my expectations for 2012.
Part 1 – A Look Back at the 2011 Season
In my opinion, the 2011 season had its ups and downs as well a learning curve, both personally and as a team. The Bluefield team made a great first impression and was a big hit (no pun intended). It was the Blue Jays first year in Bluefield after a 52 year existence of the Baltimore Oriole organization. We surely set the bar high for next year’s team. From what everybody said, the Oriole’s didn’t win much in Bluefield and the fans didn’t show much support because they weren’t winning. We brought a Division Championship to Bluefield in our first year, which the fans were ecstatic about, but what surprised the team was how into the Bluefield/Princeton rivalry the fans were. I’m telling you, these fans went nuts when we played the Princeton Rays. They sold out the stadium every game of the series because of the close proximity of the two teams (only about 15 minutes). The rivalry was for the Mercer Cup. It’s called the Mercer Cup because the two teams are located in Mercer County. The Blue Jays won the Mercer Cup this year and I honestly think the fans were happier we won the Mercer Cup rather than the Division Championship! Princeton had won the Mercer Cup the past several years and it’s about time it’s back in Bluefield. We made it all the way to the League Championship vs. the Johnson City Cardinals, but came up just short. They won the best of 3 series to capture their second league championship in a row.
The team was a great group of guys. Everybody got along and a big reason why we were so successful was due to our chemistry. Everybody pushed one another and everybody picked each other up. We played as a team, just how our manager wanted us to play. He always said to put aside your personal goals and go after the team goals and your personal goals will follow. Our coaching staff was just as great. I can’t even begin to explain how much I learned from my manager. He taught me not only on the field, but off the field. I actually have a notebook full of quotes he said and lessons he would teach the team throughout the season. Now that I think of it, I still owe him a Marshall University clock and Montgomery Inn barbecue sauce (Montgomery Inn is a world-famous rib place in Cincinnati with the BEST barbecue sauce in the history of all barbecue sauces). He loves collecting clocks and has a great amount of them hanging in the locker room. I owe him a Marshall University one because I came into the locker room one day and saw a WEST VIRGINIA UNIVERSITY clock hanging from a wall. Marshall and West Virginia are HUGE rivals and it’s either one or the other…he told me if I got him a Marshall clock he would get rid of the West Virginia clock.
I could go on and on with the stories, but overall the season was a successful one, and one that made me want more…Now that it’s the offseason, I can concentrate on what I need to improve on and prepare for a strong Spring Training and 2012 season…
Up Next: Part 2 – Offseason and Expectations for 2012
Thank you to Ian Kadish for preparing today’s MLB Guest Blog. Please feel free to contact Ian on Twitter (@BearJew36) or through his website (http://livinginthelifeofian.blogspot.com) for comments and questions. We also thank Ian for sharing the photographs used in today’s feature from his own private collection.
Previous Ian Kadish Guest MLB Blog Entries on MLB reports:
Ian Kadish Guest MLB Blog: My Baseball Journey September 11, 2011
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
The Curious Case of Carl Crawford
Thursday September 23, 2011
Rob Bland (Baseball Writer – MLB reports): When the 2010 season concluded, many people looked at the trio of Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth as easily the most sought after players. Lee has not disappointed in Philadelphia, where he will garner serious attention for the NL Cy Young Award. Werth and Crawford, however, have been pretty big disappointments after signing extremely lucrative contracts over 7 years. Werth received $126M, while Crawford made the biggest splash, inking a deal worth $142M. While Werth has been lucky to play in front of smaller crowds playing in Washington DC, Crawford has had to endure the masses of critics in Boston. This is on top of playing in the AL East, battling for the division title, while the team is in a free-fall where the Tampa Bay Rays are gaining ground in the AL Wild Card race.
Crawford came to the Red Sox with HUGE expectations. Fans of the Red Sox expected him to not only repeat his career season from 2010, but exceed his statistics. In 2010 with the Rays, Crawford surpassed most of his best seasons in almost every statistical category. He hit .307 with 19 home runs and 90 RBI, while scoring 110 runs and stealing 47 bases. His on-base percentage was .356 and he slugged at a .495 clip, giving him an OPS of .851. In 2011, surrounded by all-star and MVP caliber players, he has struggled to gain any kind of consistency. He has limped into the end of September with a .255/.292/.401 slash line.
Crawford has only been able to steal 18 bases, which is by far his worst full season total in the MLB. On June 17th, Crawford sustained a grade 1 strain of his hamstring, and did not return to the lineup until July 18th. At the time, Crawford’s OBP of .275 and slugging percentage of .384 were near the bottom of the league. If Crawford had been hot until the injury, and simply fizzled out after he came back, we would have a simple answer.
Crawford has actually fared better since the injury, but I believe he has lost a step. Crawford relies on speed, and hamstrings often take a very long time to heal. His game is based on slapping balls through the infield and driving balls to the gaps, turning singles into doubles and doubles into triples. Many people thought that the Green Monster would be peppered with line drives off Crawford’s bat, as well as triples going into the deep right-center field gap. With Crawford’s hamstring issues, he doesn’t seem to be able to drive the ball as well as in recent years.
Another issue with Crawford seems to be that he has been slightly unlucky compared to other years. His BABIP over the course of his
career is .329, while 2009 and 2010 it had been .342. This year, the stat sits at .300. Often, when seeing a dip in BABIP, you can look at a player’s line drive rate and see that the player is not hitting as many line drives. Crawford’s line drive rate is 17.8%, which is actually up from last year’s 16.5%. His fly ball and ground ball rates have also mostly gone unchanged. One thing I did notice was that his percentage of bunts for base hits is 0. Early in his career, Crawford would attempt to bunt upwards of 15 to 18 times per season. This year, Crawford has only attempted three bunts. This could be due to his hamstring not being 100% also.
Crawford’s dWAR, (or defensive Wins Above Replacement), which is a defensive stat that shows how a player is able to field balls inside and outside the zone of his position, has always been one of his strong points. For outfielders, he has been near the top of the league regularly over the last five years. This season, however, his dWAR is at -0.5, which negates entirely his limited offensive production.
With such close similarities in his batted ball rates, one would expect a slight drop in production due to his lower BABIP. However, with such a large gap in last year’s production to this year’s, despite a better overall line-up batting around him, one has to really think about what has happened to Crawford.
Crawford may be a multi, multi-millionaire that most of us would give up anything to be, but what most of us forget is that these MLB superstars are human. Hitting in front of 40,000 screaming, raving Red Sox lunatic fans surely cannot be an easy task. When playing in Tampa for the first 6 years of his career, he rarely faced hostility or scrutiny at home. The media has scrutinized every little move he has made this season, because he is under a microscope now. All this pressure and expectations after signing such a huge contract can take a toll on a player both psychologically and physically.
Here is a radical thought: Fenway’s odd dimensions have actually hurt Crawford offensively. Left fielders play shallower in Boston than in any other park, due to the Green Monster. This means that shallow flares, bloop pop ups and even live drive singles are taken out of the equation. While you can argue that this would then alter every other hitter’s stats, I think that the style of offense that Crawford plays, combined with bad luck, and a slight drop off in actual performance have been the main contributors to his poor statistics.
Look for Crawford to settle into the Boston atmosphere and return to his career averages in statistics in 2012. If he doesn’t, there will be many Sox fans clamouring to get rid of him at any cost.
***Today’s feature was prepared by Rob Bland. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan onFacebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Yu Darvish – 2012 MLB Savior?
Saturday September 17, 2011
Rob Bland (Baseball Writer – MLB reports): This offseason, there could be only two elite pitchers available for teams to bid on. While C.J. Wilson looks to sign a deal close to $100M, CC Sabathia may be looking at opting out of his current contract with the Yankees. Before the 2009 season, Sabathia signed a 7 year, $161M contract in which he makes $23M annually from 2010-2015. Add in the fact that there will be at least five teams fighting for the services of two pitchers, an alternative must be found.
Yu Darvish, a Japanese right-handed pitcher could be the answer. Although it has not been confirmed that Darvish will even make the trek to North America to play in the MLB, teams are lining up to watch him pitch. Darvish’s ERA in the Japanese Pacific League for the Nippon Ham Fighters sits at 1.47. He also has 223 strikeouts. His 4-seam fastball sits in the 91-94 mph range with a great 2-seamer (or shuuto) with a lot of movement at 89-91 mph. He has a slurve, as well as a split-finger, which seems to be his choice for an out pitch.
Many teams will be interested in Darvish, but how many really have the financial ability to bid for him in the posting process. The process is basically a silent auction, with all teams that are interested putting a bid in, and the highest bid wins. The winning team then has 30 days to agree to a contract with the player. If an agreement is not reached, the posting fee is then returned back to the MLB team.
A player of Darvish’s magnitude rarely comes up in the posting process, so estimating a potential price is difficult. Really, the only compar
ison is Daisuke Matsuzaka. In 2006, the Boston Red Sox bid of $51,111,111 earned the rights to negotiate with the right-handed pitcher. Matsuzaka then agreed to a 6 year, $52M contract, that could be worth as much as $60M with incentives. Matsuzaka has been dominant at times, as witnessed by his 2008 season, where he went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA. He was 4th in Cy Young Award voting after keeping hitters to a .211 average. He has also been below average, as this year, before going on the disabled list, he walked 5.5 batters per 9 innings.
There are very few teams with the financial flexibility to pull off such a move, while the other teams will pass Darvish up.
New York Yankees
With a payroll over $200M annually, the Yankees can always be in on any free agent, especially a high profile one. Behind CC Sabathia, who may opt out of his current contract, the Yankees have a lot of question marks in the rotation. Ivan Nova has had a solid season, but AJ Burnett and Phil Hughes had extremely disappointing campaigns. If the Yankees want to continue their success in the AL East, Darvish may be the key.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox, like the Yankees, have a lot of question marks in the rotation. Behind Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz, who were extremely solid this year, the rotation has been a mess. Matsuzaka struggled, Lackey has been pretty bad, and Tim Wakefield is nearing the end of his career. They don’t NEED Darvish like the Yankees do.
Toronto Blue Jays
General Manager Alex Anthopoulos has recently said that he was in Japan scouting Darvish. The Blue Jays also have question marks beyond ace Ricky Romero. Brandon Morrow, Kyle Drabek and Brett Cecil underperformed this year, while 21 year old Henderson Alvarez has really impressed in the second half. The Blue Jays have stated they could take on a payroll of $140-150M when the team is ready to contend.
Texas Rangers
GM Jon Daniels was in Japan in the summer to watch Darvish pitch, and could be a frontrunner for his services. With CJ Wilson ready to hit the free agent market, the Rangers will have a lot of quality innings to replace. Derek Holland is developing into a solid starter, to go along with Colby Lewis and Alexi Ogando.
LA Dodgers
If the Dodgers ownership issues ever get solved, with the young core of players they have, they could put in a very serious bid. With the franchise struggling, and Hiroki Kuroda’s $12M coming off the books, expect the Dodgers to be aggressive this offseason if a new owner is put in place. One of the most storied franchises in baseball could get a huge boost in having Darvish come to town. Clayton Kershaw and Darvish could create a very formidable duo on the mound.
While other teams such as the Washington Nationals, Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox and Seattle Mariners have shown interest, I feel as though these five teams are the best possible fit. They have the money, and they have the willingness to shell it out to the right player.
I believe a posting fee near $65,000,000 will gain the negotiating rights to Yu Darvish. While the Yankees and Red Sox are always dangerous, I think that CJ Wilson is the biggest wildcard in the situation. If he walks from the Rangers, look for them to be very aggressive with Darvish. The winning team will likely have to cough up around 6 years and $75M in a contract, meaning the total amount spent by the team would be around $130M over 6 years. For that kind of money, these teams better be sure they are getting the ace they are looking for to take them over the top.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Rob Bland. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan onFacebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
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