Dear FanGraphs On Your MLB Season Projections: I Wish You Ran A Gambling Site!
Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer) Follow @stokes_hunter21
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So I studied the recent FanGraphs projections for the upcoming 2016 MLB Year and was completely shocked at where these guys had the defending World Series Champions projected at for W – L Record….79 – 83 and tied for the 12th best record in the Junior Circuit??!!
Fangraphs, you are high if you think that will actually take place. For that, I wish you ran a gambling website to promote betting. The sharps would have a field day on a couple of these selections. I would throw down some serious money on your totals.
Lets not entirely rule out Cleveland winning the AL Central as they have also prognosticated here, albeit at just 84 wins. That victory total is about right for the Tribe – But how can you have all AL teams (except BOS) pegged between 78 – 86 wins?
The site also had the Red Sox as the only 90 game winner in the American League. Again, that may be right in one club winning that amount of games only, but it probably won’t be the Red Sox to do it. The AL East is going to cannibalize each other all year.
Granted the Red Sox/Blue Jays should be given the favorites on the Division, with the Yankees a few games behind. For those Canadian fans here, FanGraphs has you at 84 wins? That also is a stretch. I would bet that on an over/under – with the Jays at just below 90 wins for the season.
I ultimately think the American League East winner will have 87 – 89 wins. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Boston/Toronto and New York are all in that victory range.
I do like the AL West picks here with Houston at 86 wins, and the rest of the pack settled in between 78 – 84 wins collectively. This could definitely happen.
Other than the Royals being about a dozen victories under what they should be, the AL Central is about right.
With the Justin Upton deal, the Tigers should be in the mid 80’s for wins, so their 82 victories slate is not egregious either. The Twins are curious at 78 wins, but then again the White Sox and Tigers are a lot better in 2016. so maybe Minnesota will hail in the basement in the upcoming year.
Oakland for 78 wins would be a 10 game improvement from 2015, and I am not sure they have improved that greatly. If I were to pick them for a total over/under wise right now, I would pin them at 74.5 wins and last in the AL West.
If these prognostications came to fruition the (86 – 76) Yankees would host the M’s or the Blue Jays (both 84 – 78 for the year) in the AL Wild Card Game.
The Giants (86 – 76) would host the Cardinals (84 – 78) in the NL Wild Card Game. That is a leap of faith. Not the teams, but the low win totals in the NL.
In an article I will write for “BOLD PREDICTIONS” later this week, I will make the case that 94 – 96 wins might be what you need to make the NL Wild Card Game.
The totals for the American League are actually about what the 2015 game featured anyway.
As for the National League….St. Louis to take a 16 game loss from last year, and Pittsburgh at 15 game reduction? No bloody way! I will say Pittsburgh will recede to about 90 wins, and the Cardinals should be at 92 – 95 wins.
I think this website is giving the cellar dwellers in the Senior Circuit way too much credit. I believe the Nats/Mets/Giants/Dodgers/Cubs/Cards and Pirates will all absolutely speedbag the Phillies, Braves, Rockies, Brewers, Padres and Reds all year long.
I have stated many times this winter that I believe all of those last 6 clubs will challenge 100 Losses. All of those franchises should also provide all of their best veteran players (not nailed down by contracts) up for tradebait at the Deadline.
To their credit, they also have the bottom 6 teams of the MLB as those squads. I agree with the ballpark of victories they have for the Mariners, Indians (just not to win the AL Central, Marlins, Yankees, Astros, Rangers, Braves, Phillies, Red Sox, Cubs, O’s, Angels, D’backs and Dodgers.
As a full team kept together, the Reds, Brewers, Rockies and Padres also might match their selected victories here too, however I would think these clubs would be in the market to sell off a lot of assets midway through the year – thus creating brutal ends to their W – L records.
I also don’t see how the Mets are only going to win 84 games in that cupcake division? The Pitching Staff alone should make sure that club tops the 90 win barrier. Fans in Flushing Meadows, NY should all email these findings to the GM and ownership in hopes they can pick up a bat.
I wonder what fangraphs.com will say if Yoenis Cespedes were to sign back with the Mets for the year? That club was wallowing near .500 before he showed up and went beserk at the plate in 2015. A lot of the Mets struggles on offense were due to injuries though.
New York is far better on paper at the start of 2016 – than at the beginning of 2015 offense wise. Neil Walker is a pretty fair comparable to Daniel Murphy. Asdrubal Cabrera is also a decent comp to Ruben Tejada or Wilmer Flores.
David Wright‘s health is always a risk – but he should be able to play more than the 38 Games he appeared in last season.
With health and pitching, the NL West is also up in the air, and that is another reason why I don’t mind them picking the Dodgers to win the Division.
I hate to be nitpicking here too much but they also have 2431 wins doled out in their projections. Is there a game I am unaware of fella’s? Last time I checked, there are 2430 Games Played in a MLB season and not 2430 – unless there is a Game 163?
Wait there would be a Game 163 (TOR vs SEA as the Wild Card #2 Seed), but they failed to mention who would win that tilt.
Anyways, I just wish I could place some cabbage on the totals fangraphs.com has for the 2016 win totals. My best bets would be KC, STL, TOR and the Mets all over their given totals, with the Reds and Brewers both under.
*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com and their partners***
A Big thanks goes out to our chief writer Hunter Stokes for preparing today’s feature post.
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Posted on January 19, 2016, in gambling 101 and tagged 2016 MLB predictions, 2016 MLB Trade Deadline, al central, AL East, AL West, All 30 MLB Teams, American league, arizona diamondbacks, Atlanta Braves, baltimore orioles, boston red sox, chicago cubs, chicago white sox, cincinnati reds, cleveland indians, colorado rockies, daniel murphy, david wright, detroit tigers, fangraphs.com, Flushing Meadows, houston astros, justin upton, kansas city royals, la angels, la dodgers, miami marlins, michael conforto, milwaukee brewers, minnesota twins, national league, neil walker, new york mets, new york yankees, NL Central, NL east, nl west, ny, oakland athletics, philadelphia phillies, pittsburgh pirates, ruben tejada, san diego padres, san francisco giants, seattle mariners, st louis cardinals, tampa bay rays, texas rangers, toronto blue jays, travis d'arnaud, washington nationals, Wilmer Flores. Bookmark the permalink. Comments Off on Dear FanGraphs On Your MLB Season Projections: I Wish You Ran A Gambling Site!.