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Wednesday, Apr.24/2013

Danny Espinosa had best start producing for this talented Washington Nationals club – with the likes of Anthony Rendon looking for a position to overtake. The 25 Year Old has started the campaign at a 3 Slash Line of .176/.222/.556 -even though he has cutdown his SO so far.

During the course of a baseball season there are going to be ups and downs, and for the past week and a half I have written that reality far too much. The Nats started the season with a tough stretch that doesn’t end until June.

Consider for a moment that between April 1 and May 31 the Nats play 33 games against teams that were over .500 in 2012 – and only 22 afterwards. They play more games against team that had winning records the season before in the first two months of the season than they do in the final four.

That is an odd balance. Combine that with the unseemly amount of errors and irregular Bullpen play – and it is a recipe for a slow start, or exactly the start the Nationals are off to.

It was the effort by the Nationals in a while – and they ended up losing a one run game. During the course of the season those are the types of games that even out. It is unusual for a team, good or bad, to have a record much above or below .500 in one run games.

Anthony Rendon Spring Training HR:

Anthony Rendon was selected 6th overall in the 2011 MLB Amateur Draft by the Washington Nationals.  Baseball America ranked him as #28 in their top 100 list this year.

If the Nationals can continue to not beat themselves in the field and on the bases while getting solid pitching then the runs will come. In fact the Nationals are currently sixth in the NL in OPS and that includes the recent poor stretch where they have struggled to score four runs a game. The runs will come. In baseball approach is much more important than results.

The Nationals showed a good result last night and were one Jon Jay diving catch away from beating the Cardinals, but that is how one run games go. Denard Span fails to make an amazing catch on an Allen Craig double off the wall and Jon Jay succeeds in catching Chad Tracy‘s blooper to shallow center.

It isn’t exactly luck, but it is the difference of a play that those fielders both sometimes make, and in this game one made the play and won while the other didn’t and lost, but without the solid defense and good relief pitching neither of those plays matter.

That 3-2 loss to the Cardinals is what it should look like when two good teams play each other. Not 15-0 or 9-0. That was a well-played, solid game by the Nationals. If from here on out the Nationals play most of their games like that they will win a lot more than they lose.

The other big story line that started to emerge last night was Rendon vs. Espinosa. I have doubted the ability of Rendon to play Second Base to a level that would make the added offense acceptable, but that was viewing Espinosa’s true talent level as a .750 OPS guy – at position #4 on your scorecards.

What we’ve seen from Espinosa so far while a small sample size is discouraging. The biggest issue with Espinosa is his inability to lay off the low breaking ball in the dirt and so far this season Espinosa has continued to swing at those pitches. The only solution for that is to not swing.

Those pitches are balls and if Espinosa doesn’t swing he will force the pitcher to give him the fastball he is looking for. So far this season Danny Espinosa has swung at 41.5% of pitches out of the zone. Up from the 36.6% he swung at last season. If he continues to be unable to lay off of those pitches then he is not going to be productive enough with the bat.  

Espinosa’s defense continues to be incredible. It is very early but he is off to a 19.8 UZR/150 start to 2013. That will come down, but his defense continues to be what gives him value, and while the Nationals may be able to live with even a .700 OPS from an elite defensive second baseman they cannot live with a .600 OPS.

Especially with Anthony Rendon in the Majors and needing a spot when Ryan Zimmerman comes back. Rendon isn’t likely to be a great or even a very good defender at second base, but he is projected to be a .300 hitter with an incredible batting eye – and 20 – 25  HR power.

The Nationals can sacrifice some defense to get that bat in their line-up. It makes even more sense when you consider that across the NL 31.8% of defensive plays have not involved fielders and for the Nationals that number is 30.3%.

Nearly a third of all Plate Appearances end with a HR, BB, SO  or a HBP.  These guys are called 3TO’s  – as in the only way they are done at the plate is 3 ‘True Outs’… and the fielder is not often involved. This allows teams to put a substandard defender at a position if the offensive balance justifies it.

With Danny Espinosa looking like a .600 OPS player and Rendon projected to be an .800 OPS one, the offense justifies it. The season is still young – and there is plenty of time for Espinosa to turn it around, but it is more than a little troubling to see his bad habits from 2012 carrying over into 2013.

The adjustments need to be made and need to be made quickly or when it comes time for Zimmerman to come off the DL it may not be Rendon that loses his spot in the Batting Order.  It may just be that he slides into a different fielding position.

Battling an array of injuries over the last few years, Rendon has only seen 181 AB in the Minor Leagues for the Nationals organization. He put up a 3 Slash Line of .249/.293/.883. He has a great eye at the plate – in walking 37 times in those At-Bats. His numbers could project to be an above average offensive player in the Major Leagues as a Second Baseman. Rendon picked up his 1st Major League Hit and RBI Monday Night versus the St. Louis Cardinals. He was one of the best Nats during Spring Training as well – clubbing 4 HRs and mashing for a 1.287 OPS in 32 AB.

*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com and their partners***

A big thank-you goes out to our ‘Nationals Correspondent’ David Huzzard for preparing today’s featured article.  David  is a Pro bono sports writer for Citizens of Natstown, We Love DC, and Blown Save Win.

He is also the Co-host of The Citizens of Natstown Podcast.  David is from Fairfax, Va.  You can follow him on Twitter and talk about the game of baseball. Follow @davidhuzzard 

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