Wednesday August 1st, 2012

Jake Dal Porto:  Roy Oswalt has been one of baseball’s best and most consistent pitchers over the past decade. He’s finished top five in Cy Young voting five times, is a three-time All-Star, and has even received MVP votes throughout his career. However, his return to the major leagues with Texas has been everything BUT impressive. Oswalt is aging. He has a bad back, his arm seems to be dead, and both of those things are effecting his ability to pitch.

Why did the Rangers shock the baseball world by pulling off a last-minute deal for Ryan Dempster? Partly because they knew Neftali Feliz was going to need Tommy John surgery and would not be returning. Partly because they felt that they did not have enough pitching depth to compete with the Angels. And Partly because they aren’t sold on Oswalt as a dependable playoff starter. Oswalt, who made his first start with Texas on June 22nd, has a racked up a few good outings and a few extremely bad ones. Unfortunately for the Rangers and their fans, the bad outings have outweighed the good ones. This is a very concerning pattern that the veteran Oswalt continues to follow.

His first start was your typical vintage Roy Oswalt start, as he went nearly seven innings, struck out six, and surrendered just one run to the Rockies. The long time Astro also pitched well against the A’s and Twins, allowing just one run to both teams. Then again, they’re the A’s and Twins. At least the non-July A’s. Oakland ranks in the bottom half of the league in every main offensive category (AVG,SLG,OPS,OBP), while Minnesota isn’t much better, ranking in the middle of the pack in the above categories. Sure, Oswalt pitched well, but that’s expected against soft-hitting clubs like the Twins and the former A’s who are surging nowadays.

The wavering concern, though, is Oswalt’s inability to pitch well against good teams. Though he’s proven that he can carve up weak offenses, the Angels managed to rough him up for an eight spot on Monday. It also shouldn’t be forgotten that he gave up three home runs as well as 11 hits during the disastrous Monday night loss. At this point, his inadequacy to succeed against good offenses has become crystal clear. Other good teams that Oswalt has been unable to shut down include the Tigers and White Sox.

So what’s the problem?

The issue appears to be mechanical and there are a few factors to blame for his latest start against Los Angeles. One being that he had 12 days of rest in between his start on Monday thanks to his ailing back. Because of that, he threw just one side bullpen session during that stint which probably tinkered his rhythm and mechanics heading into Monday’s start. After the game, Oswalt said that he “needs to get a more consistent angle.” He makes perfect sense because bad arm angles lead to bad locations and bad locations lead to home runs, which is practically what’s causing his woes.

While Oswalt’s fastball still possess lots of life (91.3MPH), nearly 18 percent of the fastballs he throws result in home runs. That mark is a career worst by a relatively decent margin and so is his HR/9 rate(1.82/9). It’s obvious that home runs have killed him on multiple occasions, and pitching in the hitters friendly Rangers Ball Park doesn’t help the cause either. However, what also has killed the veteran, is bad luck and bad defense, which is surprising seeing that the Rangers generally play errorless free defense. Yet, Oswalt’s xFIP of 3.68 shows differently. In case you didn’t know, xFIP is an adjusted ERA based on things only the pitcher can control. The stat also extracts all the bad luck such as weak or lucky hits, and bad defense. Oswalt’s 3.68 xFIP is far better than his normal ERA of 6.49. From that, we realize that his struggles haven’t been entirely his fault, but even a 3.48 ERA wouldn’t be a typical Oswalt type number. His BABIP also proves that luck hasn’t been in his favor. Anything over .320 means that the pitcher is likely to improve soon, and Oswalt’s BABIP is a very high .409. Given his smaller sample size, that number should come down as he settles in more or when luck turns his way.

The Rangers need Oswalt, however. His recent struggles are glaring, but he’s a veteran with experience and you would have to think that he’s eventually going to turn his season around. And with all the injuries the Rangers have to their starting rotation, he’s eventually going to get another chance, even though he’s heading to the bullpen for now.

The bigger the game, the better Oswalt performs. And you would have to think that the Rangers are going to be in several big games come October. Ryan Dempster is a nice addition and should help. But the Rangers are hoping that Oswalt will be the one of the pitching warriors that can finally lead them to the promised land. 

Jake Dal Porto is a high school student from the Bay Area. He is a big time Giants fan and his favorite players are Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Buster Posey, and Sergio Romo. Jake’s favorite sports moment was when the Giants won the World Series back in 2010. He loves to use sabermetrics in his work.  He thinks they are the best way to show a player’s real success compared to the basic stats such as ERA, RBIs, and Wins. Jake also enjoys interacting and debating with his readers. Follow him on Twitter: @TheJakeMan24

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