Monday May 28th, 2012

Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst – MLB reports):  In this week’s fantasy focus, I take a look at a group of hitter who have improved significantly in one category and as a result have seen a tremendous increase in their overall value. While some of these guys are legit, others should be traded while their value is at a peak. Also, do not miss the “Closer Corner”, as the saves category has been as frustrating and hard to predict as any in 2012. 

Martin Prado has always been a serviceable infield option, although now only eligible at third base, due to his ability to hit for average and decent power and production. However, his average took a hit in 2011 (.260) and his career highs in home runs (15) and stolen bases (5) leaves a lot to be desired. In 2012, Prado has made an effort to be more aggressive on the base paths and has already stolen 7 bases in 8 attempts. Even 15 stolen bases would tremendously increase his overall value. I expect him to approach 20, especially as he is getting on base more with an even 21:21 walk to strikeout ratio. His average is a robust .333 (career .297) and his new approach at the plate could have Prado ending the year with a line looking something like this: .310/14/80/20.

After crushing 21 home runs in 2009, Billy Butler has disappointed many owners by hitting 15 and 19 home runs in his follow-up seasons. He is an OPS machine and the power seems to be developing in 2012, as he already has 11 home runs. Due to his size, 240 pounds, people expected the power to develop right away, but we cannot forget that he is only 26 years old. Guys typically do not reach their full power potential until their late twenties. While we know we can expect a .300 average from Butler, is appears that he will at least come close to approaching 30 home runs in 2012.  The fact that he hit 13 of his 19 home runs in the final three months of the 2011 season is even more promising for Butler owners. The only discouraging thing about Butler is that he is only eligible at the DH position in most leagues.

B.J. Upton is hitting for average during the young season and with his power and speed combo this instantly makes him a top-ten fantasy option. However, what can we realistically expect from him after three consecutive seasons of 241, .237, and .243. Even an average of .260-.270 would have a profound impact on hs value, and would rid him of the title of “average killer” in roto leagues. While the good start may prevent his average from dipping below .250, it appears as though Upton is the same player – one who swings and misses far too often (29k’s in 31 games) to hit for consistent average. Upton has had hot months before (.333 avg last September), and I would look to take advantage of his blazing start by trading him to an owner who is hoping for a 5-category player and not the average killer that he is.

Rafael Furcal is another guy who has a high average (.339) that he will not be able to sustain throughout the entire year. He has been aided by a .369 BABIP (career .314) and is only a career .284 hitter. I would look to trade him and take advantage of his hot start, but remember that he still has a lot of value at the top of a potent Cardinals lineup for both runs and steals.

THE CLOSER CORNER

Tyler Clippard, who has always had closer ability, is finally getting the chance in Washington and I expect him to run away with it until Storen returns. He will thrive in this role.

Ernesto Frieri is another closer who has seized the role and will most likely never look back for the Angels. He has the potential to be the league’s most dominant, indicated by his 40 strikeouts in 21.2 innings pitched. He has electric stuff and much improved control.

Rafael Dolis, no surprise here, has struggled since assuming the closer’s role and has been giving the boot. No replacement has been named, and I expect James Russell (who is no answer) to assume the role for the time being. However, Carlos Marmol could return from the disabled list as early as Monday. With the lack of better options and the potential to boost his trade value, expect Marmol to re-assume the closer role.

To no surprise, Heath Bell has continued to struggle as he has diminished velocity and lost control. If Miami is serious about winning, they can no longer trot his washed-up behind to the mound in the 9th inning. The save opportunities will likely go to Edward Mujica and Steve Cishek. Ultimately, I see Cishek, who has the superior stuff, taking hold of the 9th inning role in Miami.

Brandon League has been pulled from 9th inning duties in Seattle, but expect this to be temporary. This happened in 2011, for five days, and ultimately he is the best option in the bullpen. Tom Wilhelmsen will likely be rewarded the opportunities moving forward.

While Robin Ventura initially talked about a committee, Addison Reed is the guy in Chicago and he should be a very valuable option moving forward.

***Today’s feature was prepared by our Fantasy Baseball Analyst, Peter Stein.  We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers.  You can also follow Peter on Twitter (@peterWstein)***

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