Tuesday May 15th, 2012

Bernie Olshansky: The National League East standings right now aren’t what anyone could have imagined at the beginning of the season. A little over a month ago, one would expect to find the Phillies and Braves to compete for first place, with the Marlins stay lurking in the background. Almost the opposite is happening. The Phillies are in last place with the Marlins just ahead of them, and the Nationals (of all teams) in first place. The Braves are a close second and who’s behind them in third place? The Mets. An easy team to immediately disregard at the beginning of the season, the Mets have gotten off to a hot start. David Wright is at the top of the Major League leader board in average and the pitching hasn’t been bad either. Johan Santana (the big key to the season in which I’ll discuss later) has had a solid 2.92 ERA, and Mike Pelfrey with a 2.29 (given he’s only pitched 19 plus innings). The big and obvious struggle that the Mets have been able to and will need to overcome is the departure of Jose Reyes. Ruben Tejada has been doing a good job as Reyes’ replacement so far with a .305 batting average, but that doesn’t compare to the batting champion the Mets had holding down the position last year. Granted, Reyes isn’t performing for the Marlins how he did last year for the Mets, but no one expected him to repeat his numbers. Free agency has a way of boosting numbers…if you know what I mean.

If the Mets want to contend this year, many things will have to happen. David Wright has already had one injury this year (pinky fracture), and who knows how many more there will be. Wright has a history of injuries most recently missing two months last year with a stress fracture in his lower back. If Wright manages to stay healthy for the rest of this year we could see big things. In 2010, Wright played in all but four games while hitting .283 with 29 home runs and 103 RBI. If he could get close to that this year, the Mets might contend. Another key piece to the Mets’ puzzle this year is Johan Santana. Fresh off surgery, Santana started off slow this year, going only just over 11 innings in his first three starts giving up five runs. But since then, he has settled down not going less than six innings in each of his last four starts. Although he only has a 1-2 record, Santana has a 2.92 ERA with 41 strikeouts. If he too can stay healthy, the Mets may have an ace and be able to compete in the very tough NL East. One more guy that could make an impact is rookie outfielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Hitting .303 with two home runs and 12 runs batted in, he could soften the blow of the Mets’ losing of Carlos Beltran after the All Star break last year. Judging Beltran’s numbers to start the year though, Mets fans can’t help but wonder “what if”.

Although the Mets could make a push to contend in the National League East, they cannot afford to go into a slump. Although the Phillies are at the bottom of the standings right now, it is inevitable that they will contend with Roy Halladay anchoring their (arguably the best in the league) pitching staff. Missing two of their big bats in Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, the Phillies shouldn’t have anything to worry about. Not only will the Phillies contend, but so will the Braves. A favorite for the one of the Wild Cards or even the division title, the Braves also have decent pitching and a strong hitting lineup. Brian McCann, Freddie Freeman, and Dan Uggla provide a ton of pop in the middle of their powerful lineup with Chipper Jones still contributing and Jason Heyward on the brink of being an elite hitter.

If the Phillies and Braves aren’t enough in the NL East, what about the Marlins? Acquiring Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Heath Bell, and Carlos Zambrano among others, the Marlins are also a legitimate contender in the East. Although the Marlins, too are off to a slow start, they should eventually find their stride and end up atop the standings, maybe even contending for the one of the wild cards. The Nationals will need to slow down in order for the Mets to make a move, which could happen due to the youth of the team and the injury to Jayson Werth and the always-injured Ryan Zimmerman.

If the Mets were to collapse and perform as expected, Wright or Santana could be traded to a contender that would need a bat, like the Beltran trade to the Giants last year. The Mets got a great deal on the Beltran trade by getting young starter Zack Wheeler, who will end up making a large impact once he reaches the Majors. For now, it looks as if the Mets will take it right down to the end. There are endless possibilities, but many questions. They have been miraculous thus far…but it is unlikely that the Mets can keep the magic going all season long. 

***Today’s feature was prepared by Bernie Olshanksy, MLB reports Intern.  We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers.  You can also follow Bernie on Twitter (@BernieOlshansky)***

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