Wednesday February 29th, 2012

Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst – MLB reports): The National League East is filled with many big name fantasy players, particularly the Philadelphia Phillies with their starting rotation and hitters like Howard, Utley, Rollins, Victorino, and Pence. However, this division is intriguing, because teams like the Braves have a plethora of up-and-coming players. Furthermore, scattered throughout the rest of the division are players who have potential to provide sneaky good value.

VALUE PICKS

Expect Mark Buehrle to benefit from a move to the National League. In my opinion, Mark was overrated from a fantasy perspective for many years, largely due to his lack of strikeouts. However, his appeal has diminished in recent years even though he has essentially been the same pitcher. He has lost a little zip on his fastball, but this is a guy who has never relied on missing bats to make outs. He does, however, possess a 24-6 record with a 3.32 ERA in interleague play. He will also surely benefit from a move out of the hitter friendly U.S. Cellular Field and will enjoy the inferior lineups offered in the NL. He will be comfortable with Ozzie and is a lock for 200 innings and could provide tremendous value in the wins and ERA categories.

John Mayberry is expected to win the starting job in left field for the Phillies and could prove to be a solid third or fourth outfielder for a very cheap price. Even if he produces at a rate similar to last season, we are looking at .270/22/70 and 12 stolen bases. He will have plenty of opportunities to score and produce runs in the potent Phillies lineup. At 28 years of age, Mayberry is in prime position for a breakout season.

Adam LaRoche’s stock took a huge hit after he only managed to appear in 43 games for the Nationals in 2011. However, this is a guy who for six straight seasons prior was a lock for 25 home runs and 80 RBIs. The Nationals have a much more potent lineup this year and there should be less pressure on LaRoche to produce.

Lucas Duda was one of the few bright spots for the Mets in 2011, producing a .292/10/50 stat line in just 100 games. He is still largely unknown and his peripherals indicate that his success is not the product of a small sample size. Expect the average to dip closer to .280, but the good news is that he is only 26 years of age and he should benefit from Citi Field’s new hitter friendly dimensions.

David Wright was hampered by injuries and only managed to play 102 games in 2011, disappointing many fantasy owners in the process with a .254 batting average. However, there are reasons to be optimistic in 2012. For one, the BAPIP was 38 points lower than his career mark and he also managed to cut down on his strikeout percentage. Wright will also enjoy Citi Field’s new dimensions and his value has never been lower since he broke out in 2004. At 29 years of age, Wright is still a rare five-category player, and I expect something along the lines of .280 26 HRs 90 RBIs and 18 SBs in 2012.

After all of his struggles in 2011, both on the field and internally with the team, Hanley Ramirez is poised for a big bounce back year under the helm of Ozzie Guillen. Ozzie is the perfect manager for Hanley. Furthermore, his .245 batting average in 2011 had a lot to do with his .275 BAPIP, much lower than his career mark of .339. He is actually a pretty safe bet to bat .300. He looks to be fully healthy entering 2012 and will now play a less physically demanding position at third base, despite being more valuable as a shortstop. He will most likely have more opportunities to drive in runs behind Reyes and Ozzie will have no reason to limit him on the base paths. I expect five-category greatness and his 2011 woes will allow him to be had for a relative bargain price.

Setup man Jonny Venters was overshadowed by closer Craig Kimbrel in 2011. However, he pitched 88 innings of supreme quality with 6 wins, 96 strikeouts, a 1.09 WHIP, and a 1.84 ERA. He doesn’t need to close games to be valuable. His 2011 season essentially made him worth one-half of a top-five starting pitcher. Since he is behind Kimbrel, he will be available for an attractive price. Furthermore, it is not out of the question for a flamethrower like Kimbrel to suffer an arm injury, which would instantly make Venters a top closing option. In general, I try to target elite setup men (i.e. Sergio Romo, Al Alburquerque and Antonio Bastardo), who are not only one injury away from closing, but also valuable as “partial aces” in their setup role.

BUYER BEWARE

Jose Reyes is a career .292 hitter; so do not expect him to bat .337 again in 2012. The proof is in his .353 BAPIP in 2011, which is 40 points higher than his career mark. Furthermore, his game completely relies on his speed, which is a growing concern the older he gets and with his nagging injury history. He is also no longer playing for a contract. With that all said, we must not ignore the positive impact that the move to the Marlins has on his value. However, he is just too big of an injury risk and cannot be counted on as an average anchor like he was in 2011.

Heath Bell will demand top-3 value at the closer position, but he actually took a step back in 2011. A strikeout artist in 2010 (11.06K/9), Bell’s rate was rather pedestrian in 2011 (7.32). Furthermore, his BAPIP of .261, 40 points below his career average, indicates he was the product of good fortune. His XFIP of 3.67 was also much higher than his actual 2.44 ERA. He is simply not as effective without the ability to miss bats at such a high rate and might not be as sure of a thing as people expect at the end of games for the Marlins.

Although Gio Gonzalez moves to a pitcher friendly park in the National League, there is no denying that he benefited from pitching in Oakland. His 2011 XFIP indicates that his ERA should have been closer to 4.00, rather than an even 3.00. Therefore, I expect Gonzalez’s ERA to hover right in the middle of those two numbers. He has an incredible ability to miss bats, but the walk rate, which he has yet to show any improvement at any level, prevents him from being a fantasy ace. With 4 walks per 9 innings, he is prone to give up high run totals and also have trouble pitching deep into games. He does do a great job of keeping the ball on the ground. But the only way for Gonzalez to really improve upon his 2011 campaign is if he can cut down on the free passes. His control is simply not that good, but he is also a player that can be categorized as effectively wild. I simply do not see any signs of Gonzalez improving his walk rate, especially as he he is mainly a fastball/curveball pitcher.

Martin Prado’s value takes a huge hit without second base eligibility. It doesn’t look like he will ever be a stolen base threat and his .687 OPS in 2011 will not cut it as an outfielder, meaning his only value is at third base.

Jair Jurrjens was a fantasy asset with his 13 wins and 2.96 ERA in 2011. However, he will be overvalued in 2012. His XFIP of 4.23 indicates 2011 was a major aberration. Plus he has had trouble staying healthy during the last two seasons. He hurts you with his 5.33 K/9 strikeout rate, and when you pitch to that much contact- it is difficult to maintain a sub-3.00 ERA.

UP-AND-COMING

Try and get Bryce Harper (if he’s available) because he might make his debut in 2012 and never look back. There is a reason why he is perhaps the best prospect ever and his 2011 minor league debut did not disappoint. Obviously the value lies in his keeper potential. But he could be an asset as early as this summer.

With a major jump in his strikeout rate, Tommy Hanson proved that he is in the ace category in 2011. Health might be a concern, but he will only continue to improve on the mound.

Julio Teheran dominated AAA last season, posting a 15-3 record with a 2.55 ERA. He struggled in his five appearances, but he is also still only 21 years of age and should emerge as a solid fantasy starter in 2012 and as a future ace.

Craig Kimbrel was without a doubt the most valuable closer in 2011 during his rookie season. With an absurd 127 strikeouts in 77 innings, he struck out more batters as a reliever than 13 pitchers who made more than thirty starts each. Yes, the saves are nice, but the real value lies in the quality of his innings, contributing to his superior strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP.

You have to love the strikeout value that Brandon Beachy provides (10.74 K/9 in 2011). He has trouble pitching deep into games, but despite putting up a respectable 3.68 ERA, his XFIP of 3.16 indicates that he pitched even better. Look for Beachy to take another step forward. Although he will probably not pitch 200 innings, he is not far from a number two fantasy starter.

Matt Harvey, the seventh overall pick in 2010, will likely be given a chance to pitch for the rebuilding Mets in 2012. He initially struggled in his promotion to AA, but dominated in the last month and a half of the season. He had a strikeout rate of 10.9k/9 between both levels and has long-term keeper potential that could begin to be realized in 2012.

Jason Heyward took a step back in 2012, but it is a great time to buy low. He is still only 23 years of age and will look to rebound from his sophomore slump. I hesitate to put him the “value pick” category because his skills are undeniable and owners will not forget his 2010 campaign.

Freddie Freeman had a breakout rookie year with a .282/21/76 statline in 2011. He definitely has a lot of upside, but don’t be surprised if there is a Heyward-like sophomore slump in 2012.

Tyler Pastornicky appears to the Braves starting shortstop in 2012. He is 21-years old and batted .314 between AA and AAA in 2011, albeit with limited power. His upside is limited, but he has value in that he is unknown, a solid contact hitter, and will be given a chance to produce in 2012.  High risk, high reward player.

***Today’s feature was prepared by our Fantasy Baseball Analyst, Peter Stein.  We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers.  You can also follow Peter on Twitter (@peterWstein).***

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