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Wednesday December 7, 2011

MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen:  Tonight has been an exciting circus of winter meetings trades and free agent signings.  With all the names thrown around this week, one that has not come up enough has been that of Adam Dunn.  Whenever he has been mentioned, it has usually been in a negative context.  But the time has come to consider a Dunn acquisition in a positive light.  We could be looking at the 2012 Trade Bargain of the Year.

The value of Adam Dunn has been discussed in previous editions of the Reports.  The debate on Dunn has fallen essentially into two categories.  Whether 2011 represents an outlier in his career…or the beginning of the end.  I argue the former rather than the latter.  At age 32, I do not believe that Dunn all of a sudden lost his skills overnight.  His decline in Chicago can be traced to many possible factors.  First year in the American League, new city, new position, Ozzie as a manager, etc.  Whatever the reason, the fit for Dunn did not exist with the White Sox in 2011.  There could be a rebound if he stays put, but my instinct is that the White Sox would move Dunn in the right deal.  With the team apparently in sell-mode and rebuilding, given the trade of Sergio Santos to the Jays yesterday, impending loss of Mark Buehrle and other key veterans on the trade block, teams would be wise to jump on Dunn immediately.

So how do we fix Adam Dunn?  Simple.  Get him into a new environment, DH him for the majority of the time with an occasional start in the OF and 1B and he will rebound to his previous slugging ways.  Teams like the Orioles, Red Sox, Jays, Yankees, Angels, Athletics and Mariners would all be well served to give GM Kenny Williams a call.  Dunn is owed a whopping $44 million over the next 3 years.  If the right deal is presented (top prospect in return), the White Sox could perhaps be sold into eating half of the contract.  At $22 million, approximately $7 million per season for the next 3 seasons, I would happily take 40 home runs, 100 RBIs, .400 OBP and .500 SLG.  The Adam Dunn I watched last year looked very similar to the Nick Swisher on the White Sox in 2008.  Things ended up rebounding for Swisher in New York and the same could happen for Dunn on a new squad.

In the age of $100 million contracts being discussed for C.J. Wilson and $200 million deals for Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols, $20-$30 million for a proven slugger like Dunn is a bargain.  Building a baseball team, is like building a stock portfolio.  Buy low and sell high.  Buying C.J. Wilson now is buying high.  Good luck on moving that contract in a year (see Jayson Werth and Carl Crawford from a year ago).  There is no evidence that Adam Dunn is indeed on the trade market.  But if he is (with Kenny Williams, everyone is expandable), teams should be targeting Dunn.  He is a definite buy low candidate.  With many teams looking for a proven bat in their lineup, there were fewer sure things in baseball going into this year than Adam Dunn.  The White Sox thought so when they signed him to a 4-year contract.  Clearly there was not a fit for Dunn in Chicago.  But again, that does not mean that the player is finished.  Dunn is young enough to rebound.  Grab him while you can, as the price will be going up in 2013 after he is named Comeback Player of the Year.

Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports:  You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen)

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