MLB reports: In the history of baseball, 53 players have been able to achieve a streak of 30+ consecutive games with at least one hit.  Andre Ethier, the 29-year-old outfielder for the Los Angeles Dodgers is ironically sitting as of today on a 29 game hitting streak.  Ethier missed yesterday’s game with elbow inflammation and his team has a day off today.  On Friday, assuming reports are correct that Ethier will play, he will attempt to become player #54 of this exclusive major league club.

The current members of the 30+ consecutive games hitting streak club are as follows:

Quite the list of the who’s who in baseball.  Pete Rose at 44 and Paul Molitor at 39 are two of the most recent players in recent memory that attempted to break “the record”.  One of the most, if not the most holy records in all of sports, is Joe DiMaggio’s 56 game hitting streak in 1941.  Many players have tried but few have come close to DiMaggio’s magic number.  Consider that six players EVER have hit for 40+ consecutive games and only two have achieved the feat since 1922.  Pete Rose with a 44 game streak back in 1978 and DiMaggio with the record 56 games in 1941.  That’s it.  It’s not like DiMaggio has the record by a short margin either.  Sitting at #2 is Willie Keeler with 45 games between 1896-1897.  A full 11 game difference.  To put the record in another context:  Keeler has the record for 44 years until DiMaggio breaks it.  Now DiMaggio has been the holder for 69 years and counting.  The consecutive games hitting streak record is one that does not fall very often.  Given the pace of DiMaggio’s record, we may never see anyone break it.  Ever.

Pete Rose and Paul Molitor were two of the recent athletes that were approaching “the streak”.  Jimmy Rollins had a 38 game streak between 2005-2006.  From there, Luis Castillo and Chase Utley had 35 games each respectively and Benito Santiago had a 34 game streak back in 1987 (the juiced ball year, as often described by baseball experts).  If you throw out 1987, you would be left with very few modern-day players at the top of the game hitting streaks leaderboard.  23 out of the top 30 streaks occurred before 1970 and the majority were in the early 1900s.  For all the talk of steroids and “cheaters” shattering hitting records, I do not see any of the accused or suspected hitters from recent times on the list.  Barry Bonds as a prime example of a hitter that was considered with a near perfect batting eye in his hey-day…not on the list.  But aside from Bonds, think of Ichiro Suzuki competing for batting titles year-in and year-out.  Not on the list.  John Olerud batting close to .400 for much of 1993…not on the list.  From there, let’s point to some of the greatest hitters of all time.  Stan Musial had a 30 game streak in 1950.  Ty Cobb had a 40 game streak as well as a 35 gamer back in the day.  But…no Ruth.  No Williams.  No Mantle.  No Ripken.  No Puckett.  No Rickey.  For all the accomplishments of so many of these great hitters, hitting the consecutive games leaderboard was not in the cards.  This really starts to put into perspective the difficulty of achieving Dimaggio’s record and how amazing his accomplishment really was back in 1941.

Fast forward to 2011:  Andre Ethier going into Friday’s action is at 29 games.  He is just over halfway the mark to beating DiMaggio’s record.  I have long been an admirer of Ethier’s capabilities on the baseball field and it does not come as a surprise to me that he would reach this point. Ethier has a .295 lifetime AVG with a .367 OBP.  This man knows how to get base hits and to take walks, as he has a great eye at the plate.  A couple of years with 160+ hits is nothing to sneeze at.  With Matt Kemp hitting behind him and still under 30 years of age, the sky is the limit for Ethier.  The talent and tools have always been there and now it is just a matter of putting it together.

With a hit on Friday, Ethier will become only the 54th baseball player EVER to reach at least 30 consecutive games.  If his streak was to end at that point, a pat on the back will be well deserved for a job well done.  In my estimation, anything beyond 30 games will be gravy and good luck to Ethier to try to climb as high up the leaderboard as he can.  But as far as breaking DiMaggio’s record?  Forget it.  Don’t write me off as being pessimistic or anti-Ethier.  Far from it.  I want to paint a realistic picture of what the record means and the hill that Ethier would have to climb.  As already discussed, throughout the history of time, the MLB record books show that few players in our generation have come even remotely close to making a dent in this record book…and for good reason.  As time goes by and the years continue, it will become even more impossible for a hitter to break DiMaggio’s record.  I could shoot out a million reasons, but let me give you my top factors behind Ethier being unable to surpass DiMaggio:

1)  Injuries:  Ethier would need to keep perfect health or close to it, in order to hit in 28 more consecutive games.  Consider that Ethier missed Wednesday’s game with elbow inflammation.  While being fairly durable for most of his career, like most players, Ethier will miss the occasional game to rest his broken down body during a long baseball season.  Few players can play as many consecutive games as Cal Ripken and few would want to.  When Ethier misses a game, the streak stays intact.  But if he ever has to come out of a game after receiving an at-bat, the streak would be broken.  Considering the ailments that he could suffer during a game (including the current elbow issue), the chances of being able to play nine innings in every game and produce at least a hit per game is nearly impossible.

2)  Lineup protection:  Right now the Dodgers offense is based on Kemp, Ethier and hope.  With very little solid hitters surrounding him in the lineup, there is a strong chance that teams will be tempted to pitch around both Kemp and Ethier throughout some games.  We are not looking at a Yankees type lineup where nearly every hitter is an all-star.  Loney, Barajas, Carroll, Uribe and Gwynn are not names that will strike fear into the heart of any opposing pitcher.  With so many opportunities to be pitched around, Ethier will have some games where he will be lucky to see maybe a handful of fastballs.  As the streak would lengthen and with games on the line near the 8th and 9th inning, I would not count on Ethier receiving quality pitches.  If Ethier walks an entire game, the streak remains alive until the next day.  But if Ethier is out at least once or has a sacrifice fly with no hit, the streak would die.  Unless some of his teammates have rebirths at the plate, the odds are against Ethier having enough pitches to hit every game in order to keep his streak alive.

3)  Schedule:  Take the month of May alone.  The Dodgers have games coming up against the Giants, Brewers and Marlins, plus the Phillies in early June.  Ethier may be going up against Lincecum, Cain, Greinke, Johnson, Halladay and Lee.  Some of the best pitchers in baseball, who tend to be very stingy with hits allowed.  Not only are the above named pitchers great, but they are also very proud.  Lincecum and Johnson would have no issue bringing their “A” game and shutting down Ethier for a night.  We are talking powerful pitchers with big egos, which is not the best combination for a hitter attempting to keep a hitting streak alive.  Friday brings Jon Niese and the Mets, which would be considered a good matchup for Ethier.  But not all games are created equally and with a tough schedule ahead and little lineup protection, the odds are against long-term success.

4)  Relief Pitching:  Once upon a time when starting pitchers used to stay out for 150+ pitches per game and pitch complete games, hitters like Ethier had easier chances for a consecutive games hitting streak.  Check again the timing on the above leaderboard and you will see since the dawn of specialized pitchers, the number of hitters that have achieved 30+ consecutive games hitting streaks is miniscule.  This is neither an accident or fluke.  We are in an era where starting pitchers go 5-6 innings per start on average, with specialized 7th and 9th inning relievers, right-handed and left-handed specialists and of course, the closer.  Take Kansas City, that can throw Collins, Crowe, Jeffress in the middle innings of a game and then turn the ball over to Soria.  The Braves have Kimbrel and Venters.  The Reds with Chapman and Cordero.  Keep in mind Ethier bats left.  All opponents will have no problem in throwing out a left-handed specialist in the late innings to get Ethier out in a tight game.  Check out the splits this year:  In 84 at-bats against right-handed pitchers, Ethier has a .429 batting average.  Contrast that to 35 at-bats against lefties and he is hitting to the tune of .229.  The lefty-on-lefty matchup will likely be Ethier’s downfall as he is susceptible to more frequent outs against lefties.  The game as it is set up today allows for fresh, hard-throwing pitchers to enter games in strategic times to neutralize hitters.  Chapman and his 105 mph fastball could end up making or break this streak for Ethier.

5)  Pressure and Luck:  With the turmoil surrounding the Dodgers team ownership, fans and media are clamouring for any feel good story to grab and hold onto.  Ethier is already starting to face a huge amount of pressure in this day and age of internet and instant access (yours truly included) to information and reports for fans.  As the streak continues, the amount of attention faced by Ethier will be mind-boggling and while professionals are supposed to block out distractions, the reality is that baseball players are human like you and I, not machines.  Ethier cannot help but think about the streak as it is brought to his attention and mental can make physical.  If the pressure gets to Ethier in some form, the streak is unlikely to stand a chance.  Combined with luck and chance, Ethier has the odds naturally against him.  Strong contact and well-timed hits can turn into outs based on the defenses that oppose the Dodgers on any given night.  For Ethier to sustain a hitting streak approach DiMaggio’s, he would need lady luck on his shoulders in addition to hard work and strong effort.  They say that some people can be lucky for some of the time. But nobody can be lucky all the time.  Ethier will need the luck with skill to thrive and the fortunes say that luck has to run out on at least one night during Ethier’s run.

My sincere congratulations to Andre Ethier for what he has accomplished to-date.  I will be watching every Dodgers game and Ethier at-bat with interest to see how far he gets.  Nobody would cheer for him louder than me if he could come close to Joe DiMaggio.  While wishful thinking is hopeful that there is a chance, logic and reason dictate that this is likely, if not impossible to happen.  Baseball today is not built the way it used to be and while there are exceptions to the rules, the law of averages tends to win out every time.  I cannot even begin to fathom that Andre Ethier would be able to accomplish what Williams and Ruth never could.  In our lifetime we have seen home run records shatter, baseball crown a new all-time hits king, no-hitters thrown on almost a monthly basis (including 2 by Halladay last year alone, the second in the playoffs nonetheless)…heck, even the saves record fell.  But the legend of Joe DiMaggio and #56 continue to live in the records.  Together with Cy Young and 511 wins, Cal Ripken with 2632 consecutive games played and Pete Rose with 4256 career hits are all records that are virtually impossible to break.  Until Andre Ethier reaches 40+ consecutive games with hits, let’s leave the legend of Joe DiMaggio apart from the equation.  Ethier is on a nice run but has ways to go before coming close to greatness.  Good luck Andre:  all the best from MLB reports! 

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