Daily Archives: April 14, 2011

FRIDAY FACEOFF: CARLOS PENA VS. JAMES LONEY

MLB reports:  In another first on MLB reports, I will be running a series every Friday titled “Friday Faceoff.”  The series will matchup two MLB players at the same position and consist of a five point comparison between them.  The player with the most points at the end of the faceoff is victorious.  Especially for fantasy baseball players, the faceoff will give you an edge and strategy as to how to  fill your fantasy roster and set your lineups.

In the premier edition of the Friday Faceoff, I present James Loney of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Carlos Pena of the Chicago Cubs.  Two middle-of-the-road first basemen with the potential to hit the upper tier.  Do you have either player on your team?  Do you want to have either one in your lineup?  Lets begin the Friday Faceoff and find out!

CARLOS PENA VS. JAMES LONEY:  THE FRIDAY FACEOFF BEGINS

1)  Home runs/Power:  This is an automatic win for Pena.  James Loney in his last three major league seasons has averaged a paltry twelve home runs.  In his last two years, Loney has shown a SLG under .400.  Acceptable numbers for a catcher or second baseman maybe, but certainly not from a first baseman.  While he had forty-one doubles last year, Loney simply did not have enough extra base hits as required from a power position.  Carlos Pena, for all his faults has been consistently solid in his department.  In 2007 at forty-six home runs, Pena had almost the same amount of home runs in one year as Loney has hit in his whole career.  Last year, Pena hit twenty-eight long balls in a “down year”.  With a career SLG of .490, considering the slow start to his career, Pena clearly has power in abundance.  Last year interestingly, Pena had a SLG of .407.  But considering he hit under .200, we should cut him some slack.  Another note on James Loney, in 2009 he managed only one home run at home all year.  Neither player has set the world on fire to start the year, Loney with one home run and Pena with zero.  But based on history, the winner is:  Carlos Pena.

2)  Batting Average:  A statistic long in dispute, but for what its worth Loney has the clear advantage here.  With a .288 lifetime average, Loney is far ahead of Pena’s .241 career mark.  Carlos has a career high of 138 hits in 2007 and ony 95 hits in an entire season last year.  Loney since 2008 has averaged over 160 hits per season.  While Pena has the power, Loney gets the more consistent hits.  Not the standard for a first baseman, but if average counts in your fantasy league, then congrats if you have the winner in round two:  James Loney.

3)  On-Base:  With Loney’s career OBP mark of .348 and Pena at .351, the difference between the player is negligible.  As Loney has the hits as shown above, Pena has the walks. Pena since 2007 has walked 103 times, 96, 87 and again 87 times.  Loney had 70 walks in 2009 but otherwise walks approximately 50 times per year.  Pick your choice, if you need your first baseman to get on-base consistently, as this round ends in a tie.

4)  Durability:  A difficult factor to predict given the strains of playing 162 baseball games, Loney and Pena are examples of a contrast in measuring health.  Carlos Pena will be turning 33 this year and is starting to show his age.  While being fairly durable in his career, Pena has averaged approximately 140 games and 480 at bats in the last four years.  Loney over the last three years has missed 6 games in total.  Loney has also averaged close to 590 at bats over that time.  Entering his prime this year at 27, if you want to hedge your bets on who will be healthiest this year, your winner is:  James Loney.

5)  Speed:  Stolen bases is something that you rarely look for from your first baseman in fantasy baseball but will take as a bonus.  If your league counts steals, you will be very interested to find who wins this round. Pena has twenty-three steals over his ten major league seasons, with five steals actually coming last year.  With several seasons of zero and one steal per year, Pena is not someone you would exactly call a speed demon.  Loney on the other hand had ten stolen bases last year, with seven steals each year for the previous two seasons.  At a younger age and playing on an aggressive running team with Davey Lopes on board, expect Loney’s thefts to rise in a run-and-gun offense.  In the final round, another win for: James Loney.

THE VERDICT:  Going into this article, I fully expect to be handing a trophy to Carlos Pena in the first ever faceoff.  But sometimes number crunching can differ from expectations and in this case, the results were not as I had predicted.  Carlos Pena, for all of his home runs and walks does not offer most fantasy players the same consistency on the same number of levels as James Loney.  Despite lower power totals, Loney has the durability, batting average and speed advantage.  At this point in their careers, Pena and Loney appear to be on different tracks.  Pena is starting to be on the downside of his career while Loney should be entering his prime.  After two weeks into the season, both players have shown little so far.  But as the weather heats up, both should similarly get their games going.  But based on the Friday Faceoff, with a 3-1 record and 1 tie, James Loney is the fantasy first baseman of choice on this night.  While both players are truly average choices at first with many better options available, if the faceoff is an indication, you can do worse than having James Loney on your squad.

 

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THE MYSTERY OF GEOVANY SOTO

MLB reports:  Rewind to the 2010 season.  If I told you there was a 27 year old catcher that hit .280 with 17 home runs in only 105 games that year, I bet that you would be impressed.  Add in 62 walks, a .393 OBP and .497 SLG and I would fathom that you would be very high on this player.  The same player that in 2008 hit 23 long balls in 141 games and managed a .285 average, with a .364 OBP and .504 SLG.  Again, very impressive for a catcher, as top hitting catchers are hard to find in baseball.  Yet this same player, who was an 11th round pick in 2001, was the same player that hit .218 in 2009, with 11 home runs in 102 games, with a measly .321 OBP and .381 SLG.  Fast forward to 2011 and this player is hitting an embarrassing .189 with 1 home run.  Confused?  Many baseball experts are.  Welcome to the mystery that is Geovany Soto, catcher for the Chicago Cubs.

In 2006 and 2007, Soto had barely a sip of coffee in his brief appearances in the show.  Having showcased some good pop though in 2007, Soto was handed the job in the 2008 season and ran with it.  At the conclusion of that season, the sky was the limit for Soto.  Entering the 2009 season, Soto was selected to play for his native Puerto Rico in the 2nd edition of the World Baseball Classic.  However, the discovery of marijuana use during the WBC tainted Soto’s reputation and results for that baseball season.  The mystery surrounding Soto was whether he had suffered a mere relapse or was already hitting a decline.  Reports indicated immaturity and laziness on his part and Soto’s play and results on the field were indicative of his reputation.  Much like Russell Martin was due for a change of scenery in leaving the Dodgers this past offseason, experts questioned whether Soto still had a future as a Cub going into 2010.  A rebound was in order.

2010 turned out to be a bounce-back year for Soto, despite reports of a hurt shoulder and various ailments that caused him to miss over 50 games in the season.  Having alternated good and bad seasons, 2011 represents Soto’s chance at redemption by showing consistency in consecutive outstanding seasons.  That would be the hope if one is a Soto and/or Cubs fan.  However, as his slow start has indicated, the future of Soto remains unsettled to this day.  How Geovany Soto performs remains a mystery to us all, let alone what the next few years have in store for the stocky catcher.  If I had to look into a crystal ball though, I would predict big things still for the Cubs backstop.

For all the doubts surrounding Geovany Soto, I propose that the potential is there and has never left this underrated talent.  2009 was a strange year for Soto that never seemed to get untracked.  The marijuana story created a distraction for Soto as part of the WBC and then in the MLB regular season.  Embarrassed I am sure for the negative exposure in his native country, Soto ended up having one of those years that just need to be written off.  After all, Tim Lincecum faced similar charges and scandal this past offseason and his reputation seems to have recovered more than ok.  As long as Soto is healthy, the opportunities should still be there for him and all Soto has to do is work hard and play the game the right way.  The Cubs are a team in desperate need of leadership, both on and off the field.  Geovany Soto can finally make the Cubs “his team” and help the team rise as a result.

As long as Albert Pujols is hitting .150 (already up to over .200 with a strong game tonight), Soto can be allowed a slow start to the 2011 season.  Having shown that he can produce in the past, there is no reason why Soto should not succeed this year.  Hitting in the middle of the lineup in the cozy confines of Wrigley, Soto is of  the right age and experience tha a monster season should be coming.  I truly believe that Geovany Soto has all the talent in the world and that we are just scratching the surface as to what he can do.  Why he has taken step backs and where he is headed may be a mystery, but there is no doubt that the potential and promise is still there.  In my opinion, any so called “baseball expert” that can write off a catcher with power and patience like Soto is foolish.  Jason Varitek is a name that often comes to my mind when I think of Geovany Soto.  Their style of play, bats and hustle are cut from the same cloth.  The Cubs would be thrilled if Soto could grow into the captain of their team one day.  With a breakthrough year this year, I think the Soto that was expected will emerge that will dominate and likely erase all the negative images of his past.  If all goes according to plan, by the all-star break can erase the mystery portion of his life and create a positive image and results for himself.  Gut feel, I can see this coming together for him soon.

 

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