The Astros 2013 Draft Day Decision
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Wednesday May 29th, 2013
By Jordan Gluck (Draft Correspondent) Follow @JGluck777
The Houston Astros select first overall in the draft for the second consecutive year but have a big decision to make and that is the strategy they use. First let’s go through who the key people in the front office are.
Reid Ryan – Team President
Jeff Luhnow: GM- Upenn
David Stearns: Assistant GM- Harvard
Craig Biggio, Roger Clemens - special assistants
Sig Mejdal- director of decision sciences (best title name in baseball)
Mike Elias: director of amateur scouting
Kevin Goldstein: director of pro scouting
Paul Ricciarini: scout
David Post: national cross checker
Before I talk about the Astros potential strategies I think it is worth mentioning that Craig Biggio‘ s son Cavan Biggio is in this draft and that is something to watch for although he will not go first overall.
The Astros have no supplemental picks but the first overall pick has a slot allotment of 7,790,000 and their second round1,397,000. So factoring their first ten selections they have about 10 million in slot to work with.
It is also important to know that you can spend 105% of your slot allotment without forfeiting future draft picks. So the Astros can go a few directions they can use last years strategy in taking a player that they signed a nice margin under their signing allotment so they can use that money to sign first round talent in lower rounds.
That’s how they ended up with Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers Jr. , Nolan Fontana, and Rio Ruiz. If the Astros follow last years strategy it is unlikely that they will select Mark Appel or Jonathan Gray because they would cost too much to make this strategy effective.
They would most likely select Austin Meadows, Clint Frazier, or Sean Manea. Then with the first pick of the second and third rounds select players that may have fallen due to sign ability concerns which is mostly high school players with strong college commitments.
With the 7th, 8th, 9th, and 10th rounds they would select college seniors and “punt” the draft picks with them signing for about 5,000 each.
They could straight shot the draft which is basically taking players and signing them for around slot value. if they elect this strategy then Mark Appel or Jonathan Gray would most likely be chosen and they would have less cash to play with the rest of the way. The other option is to play
a game of chicken with Mark Appel factoring in the fact that there is no “superstar” in this years draft and will likely have the first overall pick next year and if Appel doesn’t sign the second pick as well.
Appel is a college senior and if he gets drafted and doesn’t sign he would have to play a year of independent league ball and would be eligible for next years draft.
If the Astros select Appel and them give him a lowball offer of around 4 million knowing that if he declines he would have to play a year of independent ball and on top of that the Astros will probably have the first to picks so the highest Appel would then go would be third. The third pick of course carries a lower slot allotment.
This is a very odd situation that Scott Boras has put Appel in and it could end up really backfiring.
The obvious win for the Astros would be to select Appel first and sign him for around 4 million which would give them plenty of room to play around with the rest of their top picks. The draft is about a month away and I am anxiously awaiting it. Until then the Astros have a big decision to make.
The Astros last 15 years of Drafting have produced a few stars like Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, Brad Lidge, while Hunter Pence, Ben Zobrist, Morgan Ensberg, Chris Johnson, Chad Qualls, Bud Norris, John Buck and Tim Redding have all had significant contributions in the MLB after being drafted by Houston.
*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com or their partners.***
A big thank-you goes out to our ‘Prospects/Baseball Operations Correspondent’ Jordan Gluck for preparing today’s featured article. Jordan wants to be a MLB President of baseball operations one day. H
e has grown up in south Florida all of his life after moving there when he was two months old. Jordan grew up a FLORIDA Marlins fan but lost his devoting allegiance when they moved to Miami.
He is a senior in high school and will be going to college next year. He will have a heavy focus on roster evaluations, prospects, and the business of baseball! You can follow Jordan on twitter Follow @JGluck777
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Posted on May 29, 2013, in MLB Payroll and Contracts, On the Verge: MLB Prospects, The Rest: Everything Baseball and tagged @jgluck777 on twitter, austin meadows, ben zobrist, brad lidge, bud norris, carlos correa, cavan biggio, chad qualls, chris johnson, clint frazier, david post, david stearns, Draft day houston astros 2013, houston astros, hunter pence, jeff bagwell, jeff luhnow, john buck, jonathan gray, jordan gluck, jose veras, kevin goldstein, lance berkman, lance mccullers, larry anderson, mike elias, morgan ensberg, nolan fontana, paul ricciarini, reid ryan, rio ruiz, roger clemens, roy oswalt, sean manea, sig mejdal, tim redding. Bookmark the permalink. 2 Comments.