The Astros 2013 Draft Day Decision

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Wednesday May 29th, 2013

Reid Ryan will be at the helm for his 1st ever draft as Team President for the Astros on June 6th.  The team is picking 1st overall - and will most likely pick 1st or 2nd in next years Amateur Draft.  This decision should be priority #1 with the management right now.

Reid Ryan will be at the helm for his 1st ever draft as Team President for the Astros on June 6th. The team is picking 1st overall – and will most likely pick 1st or 2nd in next years Amateur Draft as well in 2014. This 2013 Draft Day Decision should be priority #1 with the management right now.  Ryan was named Team President of the franchise only a few weeks ago.

By Jordan Gluck (Draft Correspondent)

The Houston Astros select first overall in the draft for the second consecutive year but have a big decision to make and that is the strategy they use. First let’s go through who the key people in the front office are.

Reid Ryan – Team President
Jeff Luhnow: GM- Upenn
David Stearns: Assistant GM- Harvard
Craig Biggio, Roger Clemens - special assistants
Sig Mejdal- director of decision sciences (best title name in baseball)
Mike Elias: director of amateur scouting
Kevin Goldstein: director of pro scouting
Paul Ricciarini: scout
David Post: national cross checker

Before I talk about the Astros potential strategies I think it is worth mentioning that Craig Biggio‘ s son Cavan Biggio is in this draft and that is something to watch for although he will not go first overall.

Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell both were lifetime Astros.  Biggio was drafted in the 1987 by the club (22nd Overall) - while Bagwell came over in a trade for Larry Andersen.  Both of them made their debut on April.8.1991.  The club hopes to find the next two Astros teammates to be lifer's in the next couple of drafts

Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell both were lifetime Astros. Biggio was drafted in the 1987 by the club (22nd Overall) – while Bagwell came over in a trade for Larry Andersen. Both of them made their debut on April.8.1991. The club hopes to find the next two Astros teammates to be lifer’s in the next couple of drafts.

The Astros have no supplemental picks but the first overall pick has a slot allotment of 7,790,000 and their second round1,397,000. So factoring their first ten selections they have about 10 million in slot to work with.

It is also important to know that you can spend 105% of your slot allotment without forfeiting future draft picks. So the Astros can go a few directions they can use last years strategy in taking a player that they signed a nice margin under their signing allotment so they can use that money to sign first round talent in lower rounds.

That’s how they ended up with Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers Jr. , Nolan Fontana, and Rio Ruiz. If the Astros follow last years strategy it is unlikely that they will select Mark Appel or Jonathan Gray because they would cost too much to make this strategy effective.  

They would most likely select Austin Meadows, Clint Frazier, or Sean Manea. Then with the first pick of the second and third rounds select players that may have fallen due to sign ability concerns which  is mostly high school players with strong college commitments.

With the 7th, 8th, 9th, and 10th rounds they would select college seniors and “punt” the draft picks with them signing for about 5,000 each.

They could straight shot the draft which is basically taking players and signing them for around slot value. if they elect this strategy then Mark Appel or Jonathan Gray would most likely be chosen and they would have less cash to play with the rest of the way. The other option is to play

a game of chicken with Mark Appel factoring in the fact that there is no “superstar” in this years draft and will likely have the first overall pick next year and if Appel doesn’t sign the second pick as well.

Appel is a college senior and if he gets drafted and doesn’t sign he would have to play a year of independent league ball and would be eligible for next years draft.

If the Astros select Appel and them give him a lowball offer of around 4 million knowing that if he declines he would have to play a year of independent ball and on top of that the Astros will probably have the first to picks so the highest Appel would then go would be third. The third pick of course carries a lower slot allotment.

This is a very odd situation that Scott Boras has put Appel in and it could end up really backfiring.

The obvious win for the Astros would be to select Appel first and sign him for around 4 million which would give them plenty of room to play around with the rest of their top picks. The draft is about a month away and I am anxiously awaiting it. Until then the Astros have a big decision to make.

The Astros last 15 years of Drafting have produced a few stars like Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, Brad Lidge, while Hunter Pence, Ben Zobrist, Morgan Ensberg, Chris Johnson, Chad Qualls, Bud Norris, John Buck and Tim Redding have all had significant contributions in the MLB after being drafted by Houston. 

So what will 2013 + 2014 hold for the team?  How good is Carlos Correa of last year? Only time will tell.  Maybe new teammates will emerge for a 15 year stretch like Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio.

Either that.. or maybe a reliever like Jose Veras can pull a Larry Andersen  type haul back in a steal return like Bagwell. Only time will tell.

The Houston Astros always were drafting at the end of the 1st Round during the Killer B's ERA.  They haven't had too much to show for in the last 15 Years.  They did manage to draft a few nice picks in the later rounds.  The scouting staff will have the most amount of work they have had in decades in the next 13 Months

The Houston Astros always were drafting at the end of the 1st Round during the Killer B’s ERA. They haven’t had too much to show for in the last 15 Years. They did manage to draft a few nice picks in the later rounds. The scouting staff will have the most amount of work they have had in decades in the next 13 Months.

*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com or their partners.***

A big thank-you goes out to our ‘Prospects/Baseball Operations Correspondent’ Jordan Gluck for preparing today’s featured article.  Jordan wants to be a MLB President of baseball operations one day. H

e has grown up in south Florida all of his life after moving there when he was two months old. Jordan grew up a FLORIDA Marlins fan but lost his devoting allegiance when they moved to Miami. 

He is a senior in high school and will be going to college next year. He will have a heavy focus on roster evaluations, prospects, and the business of baseball!  You can follow Jordan on twitter 

a jordan gluck

Please e-mail me  at: mlbreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback.  To subscribe to our website and have the Daily Reports sent directly to your inbox, click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.

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About jgluck777

Aspiring President of Baseball Operations for a MLB Franchise/ Venture Capitalist

Posted on May 29, 2013, in MLB Payroll and Contracts, On the Verge: MLB Prospects, The Rest: Everything Baseball and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. 2 Comments.

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