Blog Archives
How to Value and Manage Catchers on Your MLB Fantasy Team
Monday October 3, 2011
Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst – MLB reports): The catching position is one that is often the most mismanaged by fantasy owners. A very thin position, it is difficult to find value from catchers in the deeper leagues. Furthermore, you take a big risk dedicating a high pick or significant auction money at a very injury prone position, as 2011 owners Joe Mauer and Buster Posey owners know all too well. Even a healthy catcher will sit for a significant amount of games each year due to the wear and tear of the position.
For these reasons, I generally advise to not overpay for a player at this position. But with that said, for the right price, the top batch of catchers can provide you significant value. However, too many times before we have seen significant year yo year decline from players at this position. You simply should not rely on production at this position. Spend your bucks elsewhere. Based on matchups and playing time, it is possible to scrap together value for next to nothing.
For example, Chris Iannetta and his .238 average, 51 runs, 14 HR, and 55 RBI, disappointed many fantasy owners in 2011. But a closer look at the numbers shows the true value he provides. We all know the effect that Coors Field has on hitters, but for Iannetta it is staggering. His 2011 home numbers look like this: .301 batting average, 10 HR, 39 RBI and 3 SB.
If you were to only start Iannetta at home in 2011, you would great numbers all across the board for half of the season. You are essentially getting 50% of Brian McCann for way less than 50% of the price. The discrepancy in his splits is dramatic that it makes him so easy to use as an owner. Only start him at home and never think about starting him on the road!
Now, for the days that Iannetta is on the road, there are plenty of options in the bottom half of the rankings that would be available on the waiver wire. Let’s pick someone like Miguel Olivo. His 19 HR and 62 RBI provide great production from the thin catching position, but his .224 average leaves a lot to be desired. However, an owner is much better equipped to muster this average if the number of at bats are cut in half. If you combine this morph of Olivo and Iannetta, you are looking at these types of numbers:
.260-.270, 20 HR, 70 RBI, 6 SB.
These numbers are essentially right on par with Brian McCann’s 2011 line (.270, 24HR, 71RBI, 3SB). McCann is a consensus top five
catcher, while Iannetta and Olivo are viewed outside of the top-15. You are essentially creating McCann for a lot cheaper and inherent risk that comes with investing money in the catching position. Furthermore, there are more options out there if you think Olivo’s average is too much of a killer. It all depends on your team’s needs and what categories you are chasing. If you are more concerned about average, guys like Nick Hundley and Jonathan Lucroy might be more attractive options. Looking for power and RBI production? Names such as J.P. Arencibia, Russell Martin, Geovany Soto, Kurt Suzuki (there are even more) are all useful under the right circumstances.
For example, look at Geovany Soto’s numbers against left-handed pitching in 2011: .296 average, 7 HR and 15 RBI in just 98 at-bats. This is in stark contrast to his .207 average and 10 home runs in 323 at-bats against right-handed pitching.
The point is that it’s easy to piece together production at this position. There are several players who contribute in the HR and RBI categories and you can get the most out of them by maximizing their strengths based on matchups and ballparks.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Fantasy Baseball Analyst, Peter Stein. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Peter on Twitter (@peterWstein).***
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Jobless in 2012 – MLB Managers on the Hot Seat from 2011
Saturday September 10, 2011
Rob Bland (Baseball Writer – MLB reports): When a team has a disappointing season, the most likely candidate to lose his job is the manager. So far in the 2011 season, there has already been three managers who have either resigned or been fired. The Oakland Athletics fired Bob Geren on June 9th and replaced him with Bob Melvin. A week and a half later, Edwin Rodriguez resigned from his post as manager of the Florida Marlins. Jack McKeon became the oldest manager since Connie Mack at 80 years old. Yet another week later on June 26th, Jim Riggleman of the Washington Nationals resigned and was replaced by Davey Johnson two days later. With only a few weeks left in the regular season, who are the frontrunners to be replaced after the World Series?
With eight managers being new to their respective teams to start the 2011 season, one would think there can’t be too many jobs to lose. The first criteria I look at in order to predict who will not be returning his club is if the team was expected to contend for the playoffs, and fell short. Another thing I look at is the perception of the clubhouse, ie. if players get along, or if the manager is able to manage egos. Of course, the manager’s ability to create a lineup and manage a bullpen is taken into consideration. Other factors such as injuries and expectations of players are measured as well. The list that follows are my top 3 managers who could be canned after this season.
Mike Quade, Chicago Cubs
It is not oft
en that I would think a first year manager would be fired like this, but there are so many circumstances that make me believe he will be gone. First, there has been grumbling since day one in Chicago that Quade was hired over franchise icon Ryne Sandberg. The Cubs have been packed with talented players such as Carlos Zambrano, Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Geovany Soto, Ryan Dempster and Carlos Marmol. Add in Matt Garza and Starlin Castro, and you would think they could at least come close in the terrible NL Central. They are 22 games behind the streaking Milwaukee Brewers, and 21.5 behind Atlanta for the Wild Card. Their record is 62-81 with a 35-40 record at Wrigley Field.
Bud Black, San Diego Padres
With 2011 being Black’s 5th season with the Padres, a 62-82 record and already 21 games behind Arizona for the NL West title, he could be on the way out. The Padres have yet to reach the postseason under Black, however they were involved in a 1-game playoff with Colorado for the Wild Card title in 2007 that many of us will never forget as one of the most exciting games we have ever witnessed. In 2010, the Padres held a 6.5 game lead over eventual World Series Champs San Francisco Giants on August 25th. After a 10 game losing streak, the Padres were still in contention, and were not officially eliminated from the playoffs until the final day of the regular season with a 90-72 record. Those were the only winnings seasons in Black’s tenure and his time in San Diego may be up.
Ron Gardenhire, Minnesota Twins
Is it really fair to say Gardenhire’s job is in jeopardy? Probably not, but it definitely is possible. Over his 10 year career with the Twins, he has amassed an 861-740 record and they have been in the playoffs 6 times. However, they have only won 6 games, 4 of which were in one series, in Gardenhire’s first season; 2002. The Twins have not won a playoff game since 2004, being swept in 2006, 2009 and 2010 in the American League Division Series. This year, Gardenhire has had to deal with crippling injuries of former AL MVP’s Justin Morneau and Joe Mauer. Statistically, the best hitter has been Michael Cuddyer, hitting .282 with 18 home runs and 64 RBI. The best pitcher has been Scott Baker who is 8-6 with a 3.21 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 131 2/3 innings. Francisco Liriano has not been the same as he was before undergoing Tommy John surgery after the 2006 season, and aside from his no-hitter against the White Sox on May 3, he has been downright awful and is now on the 15-day disabled list. When the best players don’t perform, or are hurt, the manager is forced to do the best he can with what he is given. However a 59-84 record may just be the straw that broke the proverbial camel’s back for Gardenhire.
This year, with 3 mid-season changes already, and eight new managers at the beginning of the season, shouldn’t see too much activity. I do believe that with the Cubs’ search for a new general manager under way, Quade’s days are numbered in Chicago. I also believe that Black’s inability to get the always promising Padres to the next level will leave him without a job by November. Gardenhire has not proven to me that he can bring the Twins to the World Series, and that is what the job description entails. Has it ever happened where both Managers of the Year from their respective leagues gets fired the following year? It could happen if Black and Gardenhire are let go.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Rob Bland. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan onFacebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
THE MYSTERY OF GEOVANY SOTO
MLB reports: Rewind to the 2010 season. If I told you there was a 27 year old catcher that hit .280 with 17 home runs in only 105 games that year, I bet that you would be impressed. Add in 62 walks, a .393 OBP and .497 SLG and I would fathom that you would be very high on this player. The same player that in 2008 hit 23 long balls in 141 games and managed a .285 average, with a .364 OBP and .504 SLG. Again, very impressive for a catcher, as top hitting catchers are hard to find in baseball. Yet this same player, who was an 11th round pick in 2001, was the same player that hit .218 in 2009, with 11 home runs in 102 games, with a measly .321 OBP and .381 SLG. Fast forward to 2011 and this player is hitting an embarrassing .189 with 1 home run. Confused? Many baseball experts are. Welcome to the mystery that is Geovany Soto, catcher for the Chicago Cubs.
In 2006 and 2007, Soto had barely a sip of coffee in his brief appearances in the show. Having showcased some good pop though in 2007, Soto was handed the job in the 2008 season and ran with it. At the conclusion of that season, the sky was the limit for Soto. Entering the 2009 season, Soto was selected to play for his native Puerto Rico in the 2nd edition of the World Baseball Classic. However, the discovery of marijuana use during the WBC tainted Soto’s reputation and results for that baseball season. The mystery surrounding Soto was whether he had suffered a mere relapse or was already hitting a decline. Reports indicated immaturity and laziness on his part and Soto’s play and results on the field were indicative of his reputation. Much like Russell Martin was due for a change of scenery in leaving the Dodgers this past offseason, experts questioned whether Soto still had a future as a Cub going into 2010. A rebound was in order.
2010 turned out to be a bounce-back year for Soto, despite reports of a hurt shoulder and various ailments that caused him to miss over 50 games in the season. Having alternated good and bad seasons, 2011 represents Soto’s chance at redemption by showing consistency in consecutive outstanding seasons. That would be the hope if one is a Soto and/or Cubs fan. However, as his slow start has indicated, the future of Soto remains unsettled to this day. How Geovany Soto performs remains a mystery to us all, let alone what the next few years have in store for the stocky catcher. If I had to look into a crystal ball though, I would predict big things still for the Cubs backstop.
For all the doubts surrounding Geovany Soto, I propose that the potential is there and has never left this underrated talent. 2009 was a strange year for Soto that never seemed to get untracked. The marijuana story created a distraction for Soto as part of the WBC and then in the MLB regular season. Embarrassed I am sure for the negative exposure in his native country, Soto ended up having one of those years that just need to be written off. After all, Tim Lincecum faced similar charges and scandal this past offseason and his reputation seems to have recovered more than ok. As long as Soto is healthy, the opportunities should still be there for him and all Soto has to do is work hard and play the game the right way. The Cubs are a team in desperate need of leadership, both on and off the field. Geovany Soto can finally make the Cubs “his team” and help the team rise as a result.
As long as Albert Pujols is hitting .150 (already up to over .200 with a strong game tonight), Soto can be allowed a slow start to the 2011 season. Having shown that he can produce in the past, there is no reason why Soto should not succeed this year. Hitting in the middle of the lineup in the cozy confines of Wrigley, Soto is of the right age and experience tha a monster season should be coming. I truly believe that Geovany Soto has all the talent in the world and that we are just scratching the surface as to what he can do. Why he has taken step backs and where he is headed may be a mystery, but there is no doubt that the potential and promise is still there. In my opinion, any so called “baseball expert” that can write off a catcher with power and patience like Soto is foolish. Jason Varitek is a name that often comes to my mind when I think of Geovany Soto. Their style of play, bats and hustle are cut from the same cloth. The Cubs would be thrilled if Soto could grow into the captain of their team one day. With a breakthrough year this year, I think the Soto that was expected will emerge that will dominate and likely erase all the negative images of his past. If all goes according to plan, by the all-star break can erase the mystery portion of his life and create a positive image and results for himself. Gut feel, I can see this coming together for him soon.
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