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For Whom the Bell Tolls: Can Heath Bell Keep the Magic Alive in Miami?
Wednesday February 22nd, 2012
Sam Evans: Over the last three seasons, Heath Bell has recorded more saves than anyone in baseball. Whenever the Padres had a late-inning lead they could rely on Bell to shut the door. In 2011, Bell got the job done in San Diego once again. He tallied 43 saves in 48 opportunities. Unfortunately, he didn’t pitch in as dominant of a fashion as we are used to seeing from Bell. His strikeout and line drive percentages both were askew from the standards we are used to seeing from him. In 2012, Bell will have to rekindle his previous success, in order to continue his triumph as one of the games premier closers Read the rest of this entry
Those Clutch Guys: A Preview of the American League Closers in 2012
Wednesday February 1st, 2012
Sam Evans: Closing ballgames takes confidence, skill, and experience. There are select players that have earned the closer role at the highest level possible. These players come in all shapes and sizes, with diverse backgrounds.
Without further adieu, here are the closers for all fourteen American League teams:
New York Yankees: The Yankees have had the same closer for the last fifteen years. That is by far the longest stretch of any closer with their current team. Arguably the most successful closer of all time, Mariano Rivera has constructed his whole career around one pitch.
Rivera’s cutter is simply dominant. He breaks more bats than any other closer in the league, and he knows where to throw it to specific hitters. Even at 42 years old, hitters know what’s coming but still have no chance of making solid contact. In 2011, Rivera had a 1.91 ERA and he recorded 44 saves. Mariano Rivera still has at least five more years closing out games. The Yankees should be content with him as their closer for as long as he wants to pitch.
Tampa Bay Rays: Rays closer Kyle Farnsworth had a surprisingly effective 2011. Coming into the year, he was expected to compete with young prospect Jake McGee for the closer role. Farnsworth stole the show and was Tampa’s closer for the whole season. He posted a 2.18 ERA in 2012, along with 25 saves. It was a nice bounce back year for the once overpaid, angry reliever.
The Rays picked up the fiery reliever’s option for 2012, so he will likely retain his job as the Rays’ closer. However, if Farnsworth can’t get the job done, Joel Peralta or Fernando Rodney (87 career saves) will step in.
Boston Red Sox: The Red Sox bullpen has had a perplexing offseason so far. They let their closer leave in free agency and they moved two of their other best relievers to the rotation. Now, they’ll be trusting a young, former Rookie of the Year, who hasn’t thrown fifty innings since 2009. I think the Red Sox made the right move by letting Jonathan Papelbon walk, but I don’t see the benefit in moving Daniel Bard to their rotation.
Moving from Oakland to Boston, Andrew Bailey will have to learn to deal with constant criticism and media pressure. He’ll go from pitching in front of 10,000 people every night to almost 40,000. It’s impossible to quantify how much of an impact that will have on Bailey, but it’s got be at least a small factor.
The Red Sox will have a strong bullpen, despite which of their relievers end up in their rotation. Besides Bard, the Red Sox also acquired Mark Melancon who could see time as Boston’s closer. Melancon isn’t as good of a pitcher as Bailey, but he is still a strong option for late-inning relief.
I’m not high on Bailey and I see him having issues in 2012. Bailey relies too heavily on his fastball and his curveball was not effective last year. If he succeeds in Boston, then the Red Sox will look like geniuses for trading for him. If he struggles, then new General Manager Ben Cherington will have some questions to answer about the future of this bullpen. (I wrote more about the Red Sox bullpen here.)
Toronto Blue Jays: With the abundance of closers on the market, Toronto went out and got their closer of the present and future, in Sergio Santos. They had to give up Nestor Molina, a young starting pitching prospect, but they scored Santos and his team-friendly contract.
Since being converted from shortstop to pitcher a couple of years ago, Sergio Santos has molded into a top-notch closer. In my opinion, he has the second best slider in baseball. (Braves closer Craig Kimbrel gets a slight edge.)
The Blue Jays have a fairly strong bullpen and General Manager Alex Anthopoulos could always trade for more bullpen pieces. Rebuilding Toronto’s major league team is going to take a couple of years and right now the bullpen appears to be the least of their worries.
Baltimore Orioles: Jim Johnson emerged as a star for the Orioles in 2011. The twenty-eight year old reliever threw ninety innings but recorded only nine saves. The Orioles leader in saves last year was Kevin Gregg with 22 saves. This was surprising considering Gregg wasn’t even one of the Orioles top three relievers.
I’ve been a huge fan of Pedro Strop ever since he was with the Rangers organization. The twenty-six year old had a 2.62 FIP in 2011, and the Orioles have implied he’ll be their setup man in 2012. With Johnson, Gregg and Strop all gunning for the Orioles closer job in 2012, they’ll definitely have competition throughout the year. I’d expect Johnson to get the most saves, but Strop could have a breakout season as a 9th inning superstar. Plus Alfredo Simon could always get hot and take back the role if he fails as a starter.
Detroit Tigers: For the Tigers, having a closer they can trust to close out games in 2012 will be huge. The Tigers are going to have plenty of late-inning leads, thanks to a strong pitching staff and a powerful offense. Jose Valverde has been the Tigers closer for the last two years and he’s excelled at the back of the Detroit bullpen.
Papa Grande took a step forward in 2011. He saved 49 saves in just as many opportunities in 2012. His electric (and to a lesser extent, annoying) personality provides a spark at the end of Tigers games.
Valverde will be back in 2012 and will help Detroit down the stretch as they look to make a run at the World Series.
Chicago White Sox: The White Sox no longer have a clear closer after trading Sergio Santos to the Blue Jays. Now, their bullpen will rely on the flame-throwing lefty Matt Thornton and rookie Addison Reed.
Matt Thornton had a rough 2011. He lost his closer job to a former shortstop and saw his strikeout rates plummet. In 2010, he struck out 12.02 batters per nine innings. In 2011, he saw that rate drop to 9.5. He also walked more hitters than he had in previous years, and his LOB% dropped to 61.2%. In 2012, he will probably see his numbers improve moderately- but not to the level they were at in 2010.
Addison Reed is the best prospect in the White Sox deprived farm system. He will probably start the year in the majors. He has a higher ceiling than any other White Sox bullpen arms and that might lead to a job closing for Chicago. Reed is a nice sleeper in 12-team leagues, in which you are looking for saves.
Manager Robin Ventura has said that Reed is likely to make the 25-man roster out of Spring Training. He also said that the closing job is Matt Thornton’s to lose. I don’t think it will be very long before Reed takes over the job from Thornton, so Reed will probably get the majority of saves for the White Sox this year.
Kansas City Royals: Last year, it seemed inevitable that the Royals would trade away their longtime closer Joakim Soria. Then Soria’s value dramatically dropped. In May, Soria gave up ten runs in ten innings, and Royals fans started to panic. Eventually, Soria got back to the pitcher he always was. He finished 2011 with 28 saves, his lowest total since 2007. General Manager Dayton Moore made the right move hanging on to Joakim Soria because his value was so low at the trade deadline.
For 2012, Soria will be the Royals closer barring a trade. Not to be forgotten is former Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton who was signed this offseason. The Royals have a talented young bullpen that has the chance to develop into one of the best in the league.
Minnesota Twins: The Twins have no real closer heading into the 2011 season. Sure they have Matt Capps, who has 124 career saves. But he’s not a legitimate option if they plan on contending this year. They recently signed former Detroit Tiger Joel Zumaya who is coming back from a serious arm injury, but he used to be able to throw triple digits.
For fantasy players looking for sleepers, this team isn’t a bad place to start. Any one of the Twins pitchers could step up and take the closer role. This might be the worst bullpen in the league, so Minnesota will probably have to make some moves this year.
Cleveland Indians: The Indians a strong bullpen that should be able to give their starters a proper amount of rest. Vinnie Pestano is the best reliever on the team… and he’s not even closing. Pestano was worth 1.5 WAR in 2011, and he had 23 saves. If Chris Perez were to slip up in his closing duties, Pestano could easily fill in.
Chris Perez is a very good closer because he is a clutch performer. He doesn’t strike out many hitters and he walks a lot of hitters (1.50 K/BB in 2011), but he doesn’t blow many saves. He was 36 for 40 in save opportunities last year.
Even though Perez will likely be the starting closer on Opening Day, if Pestano keeps pitching like he has, he could eventually take over the position.
Seattle Mariners: The Mariners probably should have traded their closer, Brandon League, this offseason. As strong of an asset as League is, the Mariners won’t be contending in 2012.
When Brandon Leauge decides to throw it, he has one of the best splitters in the league. Last year he threw his splitter 28.2% of the time. Mariners fans want him to throw it more because of how dominating it can be. In 2011, using his splitter more led him to 37 saves and a 2.78 FIP. If League were to be traded or injured, Shawn Kelley, Tom Wilhelmsen, or Chance Ruffin would likely step into the role.
Oakland Athletics: Since the A’s traded Andrew Bailey, their closer responsibility is no longer set in stone. Brian Fuentes will likely start the year as their closer, but he has 37 career blown saves and is no longer the pitcher he once was.
The next pitcher in line to get saves is probably Fautino De Los Santos. As a rookie in 2011, De Los Santos struck out 11.61 batters per nine innings. Fautino De Los Santos may be electric but he only has thirty-two career saves (all of which were in the minors.)
Texas Rangers: The Rangers have the most depth out of any bullpen in the AL West. Joe Nathan will be the closer out of spring training. If Nathan were to fail, the Rangers also have Mike Adams, Koji Uehara (barring a trade) and Alexi Ogando (if he doesn’t start) waiting in the wings. If the Rangers bullpen were a flavor of milkshake- they would be banana. Not always the first thing that comes to mind, but after you try it, it’s much better than you expected.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: The Angels should have spent more money this offseason on their bullpen. Jordan Walden is far from a sure thing. Although it was his rookie year, Walden had his ups and downs in 2011. Walden looked nervous at times. Hopefully in his second year, he will have a better ” closer’s mentality.”
Setting up Walden will be most likely be Scott Downs, who was extremely lucky in 2011. Downs had 26 holds and a 1.34 ERA. He had a 3.40 xFIP and he left 86.4% of his men on base. In 2012, there’s no question that Downs is going to regress. The only question is how much.
Overall: The bullpens in the American League aren’t as strong as they look. There are talented pitchers on nearly every team, but no bullpen stands out as the clear winner. 2012 is going to be the an important year for closers, as there will be many AL teams in contention (especially if the 2nd Wild Card goes through). Some say that the whole closer role and mentality is not important. But once this year’s playoffs are upon us, I think 2012 will prove just how important closers really are.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Sam Evans. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Sam on Twitter***
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Time Has Come For the Royals to Trade Soria
Tuesday November 15, 2011
MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen: With the free agency season in full swing, some teams may not be happy with the sticker prices on available players. Especially when it comes to pitching, including closers. Jonathan Papelbon recently grabbed $50 million from the Phillies and reports have Ryan Madson looking at a deal in the $40 million range. These figures make existing closers signed to reasonable deals an attractive trade commodity, despite the amount of available relief pitchers on the market. There may be a quantity of closers, but certainly not quality. Outside of Mariano Rivera and Papelbon, there are few sure-fire closers currently in baseball. Enter Joakim Soria of the Kansas City Royals.
A 2-time All-Star, Soria has put up some impressive numbers in his 5 seasons in Kansas City. Two seasons of 40+ saves, Soria has a career 2.40 ERA and 1.043 WHIP. Soria will only be 28 next year and could theoretically be a building block for the next few seasons in Kansas City. However, closers are generally considered to be foundational players. Soria is no exception. 2011 was his most difficult seasons in the majors, as he did save 28 games but put up a 4.03 ERA and 1.276 WHIP (all career worsts). Soria is signed for $6 million this coming season and has 2 more team options at roughly $8 million per season. The Royals are faced with a decision: hold onto their star closer, or cash in while his market is at its peak.
The Royals are on the way up. No doubt about it. Mike Moustakas, Erik Hosmer, Wil Myers, John Lamb and company are expected to come together at the same time to make the Royals the next powerhouse squad. By my estimation, they should be World Series contenders by 2015. But with a couple of more seasons of growing pains ahead, can they afford the luxury of Soria? My argument is no. Soria’s salary in 2012 is still considered a “deal”, but from 2013 go-forward at $8 million, the Royals would be wise to spend their salary dollars in other areas. There are still holes to fill on the squad, including 1-2 more bats and starting pitching. The team will also need to lock up some of its young star players early to avoid unaffordable contract demands down the road. Joakim Soria can bring back a nice haul to fill needs and stock the team for a future championship. The team needs to be realistic of where it is today, where it is going in the future and the players it needs to get there.
The Royals also have options to replace Soria. Aaron Crow (if he is not moved into the rotation) and Tim Collins could all get a shot. Luke Hochevar, who has been hot/cold during his career in the rotation may eventually settle into the bullpen. Options are there. Heck, the Royals plunked Soria from the Rule-5 draft and transformed him from a Padres outcast into a star closer. With the risk of injury and ineffectiveness always hanging over closers, the Royals may be gambling if they hang onto Soria much longer. Another season like 2011 could severely damage his trade value, while he could bring in a nice crop of 2-3 prospects if traded this offseason. The Royals need to do some soul-searching and realize that Soria is worth more in a trade than on their roster.
Teams will surely line-up if Joakim Soria is made available. The Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, Angels, Tigers, Rangers, Nationals and Cardinals would all surely inquire as to his availability. From all reports, the Yankees and Blue Jays are the strongest contenders to land the Royals closer. Don’t get me wrong- I am a Joakim Soria fan. I believe the kid is immensely talented and has the talent and determination to remain a top MLB closer for another decade (health permitting). But on a losing ballclub that is rebuilding, Joakim Soria is a luxury that the Royals simply cannot afford. If the team has to trade a Moustakas or Hosmer given their budget but retain Soria, that would be a big mistake in my estimation. The team needs to build for 2015- not 2012. This offseason represents a golden opportunity for the Royals to continue to replenish its roster and fill more holes. The Melky Cabrera for Jonathan Sanchez was that type of step in the right direction. If Melky was a Prince, it is time for the Royals to flip their King for a pair of Wild Cards. It could prove to be their ultimate winning hand.
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen)
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Phillies Sign Papelbon Over Madson: The Stare Arrives in Philadelphia
Saturday November 12, 2011
MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen: The Philadelphia Phillies seemingly fooled everyone this week. Earlier in the week, reports indicated that the team had locked up its incumbent closer, Ryan Madson for a 4-year, $44 million contract which could climb all the way up to a $57 million deal with an additional option year. Reactions were for the most part negative, as the baseball world could not believe that the team would pay (overpay) for a reliever coming off his first season as a full-time closer by handing out one of the largest contracts ever to a non-starting pitcher. At that money, people began to wonder why the Phillies did not seek out the best closer on the market and one of the best overall in the game, Jonathan Papelbon. The Red Sox closer, after endless 1-year pacts with Boston was in his first free agency period in 2011. But then something interesting happened. The Madson deal, which required the approval of the team’s higher brass all of a sudden was delayed and then fell apart. A couple of days later, Papelbon became a Philly! At 4-years and $50 million, Jonathan Papelbon finally received the long-term deal he has craved all of these years and Philadelphia signed a lock-down closer. But what happened? How did the Phillies switch to Papelbon mid-stream after coming so far along in negotiations with Madson?
The marketing term for what the Phillies did is called a “bait and switch”, meant when a retailer will advertise a discounted product and will then offer you a higher priced replacement when you arrive at the location to find that the advertised good has mysteriously sold out. Often, that discounted good was never actually available, but was a merely a ploy to get the consumer to first get to the store and secondly, buy a more expensive product. In the case of the Philadelphia Phillies, I do not believe that the team ever planned on signing Ryan Madson to the reported high-end contract. While being groomed to be a future for many seasons, the team was never completely sold on his true sustainability at the position. While Madson received the occasional closing opportunities in his 8-year career leading up to 2011, he actually converted only 20 saves going into this season. But something funny happened this season. Madson became solid. So solid, that he saved 32 games with a 2.37 ERA and 1.154 WHIP. With Scott Boras as his agent, the Phillies knew that Madson would not come cheap. But the Phillies faithful for the most part loved Madson and would mourn his departure. The Phillies needed to secure themselves at the closer position while softening the blow of not signing Ryan Madson. The team’s actions this week were a stroke of genius and the team played its cards perfectly.
The plan for 2011 was to have Brad Lidge close for 1 more season, with Ryan Madson as the set-up man and fill-in closer. In the offseason, the Phillies were going to target Jonathan Papelbon and sign him to a large pact. But Lidge was injured and ineffective in 2011, forcing the Phillies to use Madson as their primary closer for most of the season. The reliever that they were hoping to sign for a reasonable 3-years, $21-$24 million deals was about to cost them almost double to retain. But how could the team sign another reliever and let their incumbent closer go? Simple. Propose a deal with Ryan Madson and float the scenario out to the public to record and evaluate the reaction of the public. The possibility existed that the fans, writers and analysts would applaud the deal, in which case the Phillies could consider actually proceeding with it. But in all likelihood, the team knew that the outcry would be against the deal. By then pulling the Madson deal and reaching out to sign Papelbon, the approval rating would be through the roof. It is almost the same as proposing a 20% tax hike and then only increasing taxes by 5%. Throw out a worst-case scenario and set expectations low- then substitute a better plan and watch people jumping for joy.
The Phillies in my estimation used Ryan Madson as a pawn. While Scott Boras has been the master for years at playing teams against one another to benefit the pocketbook of his clients, the Phillies in this case used Boras and Madson to get what they wanted. If the Phillies had gone out right away at the start of free agency to sign Jonathan Papelbon, fans and critics would have blasted the team for overpaying and proposing that the team should have kept Ryan Madson at a hometown discount. The Phillies were able to eliminate such sentiments by showing that Madson would have cost them top dollar to stay put. At an additional $1.5 million per season for the same 4-year contract, the Phillies replaced a closer with 1 full year of closing experience with a closer (Papelbon) who is the same age (31), has 6 full years of full-time closing experience in one of baseball’s biggest and highest pressure markets (Boston) of 30+ saves per season, to go along with an almost perfect postseason resume. The Phillies traded in a solid Buick for a Mercedes, with still plenty of mileage to be driven.
For those of you that may doubt the “conspiracy theory”, just take a close look at the Phillies rotation. Since Spring Training, I have been calling for the Phillies to sign Papelbon. The team has shown to seek out the best pitchers on the market and bring them on board. Roy Halladay. Cliff Lee. Now Jonathan Papelbon. When the Phillies go shopping for pitching, they do not shop in the bargain bin. Aside from obtaining Mariano Rivera, the team signed the best available closer for their staff. So while Ryan Madson would have been a nice luxury to keep on the staff for insurance and to set-up, the team knew it would be seeking Jonathan Papelbon all the way. The plan would have worked to have both Papelbon and Madson on the team, had Madson not closed out so many games this past season. As a middle reliever setting-up, his contract would have been affordable. But an outstanding closing record in 2011 along with Scott Boras as his agent, meant that Madson was priced out of the Phillies budget. With Papelbon set to come on board, there would be no room for Madson.
The Phillies faithful have to be pleased today. While they will miss Ryan Madson, most will know that there was no guarantees he could duplicate his numbers over the life of a 4-5 year contract. At the numbers that were tabled for him to stay in Philadelphia, the team by all accounts did the right thing to sign the superior Papelbon. While he will cost the team its 2012 first-round pick, a pick should be recovered, along with a supplemental pick, when Madson is signed by another team. The cost/benefit of this move was essentially a no-brainer. The Phillies went with more of a sure-thing by signing Papelbon. While there are no guarantees in baseball, especially with pitchers (arm problems) and especially closers (who can lose their jobs at a moment’s notice), Jonathan Papelbon is as money in the bank as they come.
A couple of last points that helped trigger the change of closers. By continually signing 1-year deals in Boston, many expected Papelbon to bolt once he was eligible for free agency. The team could not lock the player down to a long-term deal and with the max-exodus of players during this past offseason, it seemed that Papelbon was another candidate to seek a change of scenery. But some people may not remember that not too long ago that Ryan Madson’s wife, Sarah, making negative comments on Phillies fans. At the time, it seemed like a ticket out-of-town for Madson, but his success this season seemingly made the comments disappear. Except that the Phillies brass did not forget and the publicity that surrounded the event at the time was one that likely set a chain reaction for the plan for Madson to leave at the end of the season. Baseball is a game of short-term memories, but not for all.
When I floated the idea of a Jonathan Papelbon signing all season long, Phillies fans did not have one positive comment back to me. Their fans, as well as most in baseball, had very negative things to say about Papelbon. Outside of Boston it seems, many were unable to or refused to recognize his talent. But while Papelbon was beloved in Boston until now, those sentiments will transfer over to Philadelphia by next season. The stare, as it is known, will become one of the most famed times in Philadelphia Phillies history as the team and its fans get revved up watching Jonathan Papelbon close out games for the next 4-seasons. There is a changing of the guard in Philadelphia. The Phillies have Halladay, Lee and Hamels to start things off and now can rely on Papelbon to close them out. The stare now makes its residence in the city of brotherly love. Another World Series may not be far behind.
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen)
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Top 10 Closers: MLB Saves Leaders
Thursday August 25, 2011
Rob Bland (Intern- MLB reports): Closers are a topic a lot of people ask about, but I never really got around to writing about. Mainly because, in my opinion, it is a position that is completely overrated. While it certainly helps to have a guy that can go in and slam the door and collect saves for over a decade a la Mariano Rivera, it isn’t necessary to have a “closer” to be a contending team. One need only to look at the top 20 leaders in saves in baseball to notice that the Texas Rangers’ closer Neftali Feliz sits 19th with 25 saves, and Philadelphia Phillies’ Ryan Madson is 20th with 23 saves. It also doesn’t guarantee success, as Heath Bell, Drew Storen, Leo Nunez, Joel Hanrahan are all in the top 10 in saves, while their teams are not in playoff contention.
Top 10 Saves Leaders in MLB as of today:
| Pitcher | Team | Saves | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | FIP | WAR |
| Craig Kimbrel | Atlanta Braves | 40 | 14.56 | 3.53 | 1.70 | 1.20 | 3.1 |
| John Axford | Milwaukee Brewers | 37 | 10.86 | 3.32 | 2.26 | 2.36 | 1.7 |
| Jose Valverde | Detroit Tigers | 37 | 8.31 | 4.79 | 2.72 | 4.08 | 0.2 |
| Brian Wilson | San Francisco Giants | 35 | 8.72 | 5.20 | 3.19 | 3.40 | 0.7 |
| Heath Bell | San Diego Padres | 35 | 6.79 | 3.23 | 2.55 | 3.07 | 0.7 |
| Drew Storen | Washington Nationals | 34 | 8.03 | 2.19 | 2.77 | 3.48 | 0.6 |
| Mariano Rivera | New York Yankees | 33 | 8.45 | 0.92 | 2.20 | 2.23 | 1.8 |
| Leo Nunez | Florida Marlins | 33 | 8.31 | 2.88 | 4.63 | 4.02 | 0.1 |
| Joel Hanrahan | Pittsburgh Pirates | 32 | 7.85 | 2.04 | 1.73 | 2.17 | 1.8 |
| JJ Putz | Arizona Diamondbacks | 32 | 8.28 | 2.17 | 2.76 | 3.10 | 1.0 |
I look at this list and a few things come to mind:
1) Craig Kimbrel is absolutely filthy.
2) Mariano Rivera is still one of the very best.
3) Closers are more overrated than I originally expected.
4) A lot of saves does not equal success.
5) Craig Kimbrel. Wow.
Craig Kimbrel is having the best year ever for a rookie closer. It isn’t even September and he has 40 saves. Not only that, but he is striking out more than 14 batters per 9 innings. His FIP is a ridiculous 1.20, and his WAR is at 3.1, which is 1.3 higher than any other closer in the Major Leagues. His ground ball rate is 43.7% and has only given up 1 home run in 63 2/3 innings. If the Braves end up winning the Wild Card and have a lead late in games, the shutdown duo of Johnny Venters and Kimbrel should be able to save the game for the Braves in most instances.
John Axford has had a strange way to becoming one of the premier closers in all of baseball. It took him many years to get there, but under the tutelage of Trevor Hoffman, the career saves leader, whom Axford took his job from, he has flourished. In 2010, Axford had 24 saves after taking over for Hoffman mid-season, and this year’s 37 so far are tied for 2nd in the big leagues. Axford gets over 50% ground balls, and keeps the ball in the yard, two main factors for his success.
Jose Valverde is one of the closers whom I find to be overrated. Part of his success can be attributed to a lucky .250 BABIP. He also walks close to 5 batters per 9 innings, which is extremely high, especially when he does not strike out a very high number of batters. Valverde may appear to be very good with 37 saves, but his 0.2 WAR suggests that he is basically a replacement level pitcher. Surely he is not worth the $7M he is being paid.
Brian Wilson is loved by many in the game. He is funny, has a strange personality, (which seems to be perfectly suited for the bullpen) and he has an outrageous beard. Since 2008, he has accumulated 162 saves, so he is very valuable at the back-end of the Giants’ bullpen. He keeps the ball on the ground, with a career 50% ground ball rate, but he walks a ton of batters (5.20/9IP). He gets a lot of save opportunities because the starting rotation is very good, and his team doesn’t score many runs, so there are a lot of close games.
Heath Bell has put up some ridiculous numbers over the last few years, but these numbers come with half of his games played in the cavernous PETCO Park. While his last two seasons had his K rate over 10, he sits at 6.79 for this season. His ground ball rate is also down 5% to 43. Although his ERA is a good 2.55, his xFIP is 3.89, and like Wilson, gets saves because of an anaemic offense that results in his team often being in close games.
Drew Storen is another of the Washington Nationals’ young phenoms. He moved up the ranks, throwing only 53 2/3 innings in the minor leagues before making his debut in 2010. He has been a tad lucky as his BABIP is .241, but he gets a lot of ground balls, so the hits will even out. He also gives up a higher than average home run per fly ball rate at 11.1%. Storen doesn’t walk many, and as he matures, should probably strike out a higher number. When Washington starts winning more games, he will have even more opportunities for saves.
Mariano Rivera is up to his usual tricks. Even at 41 years old, he is carving up hitters with his signature cut fastball. Rivera has a ridiculous 9:1 K:BB ratio, as well as getting ground balls 47% of the time. His WAR sits at 1.8, tied for second best for closers. The only question is when will this guy ever slow down?
Leo Nunez of the Florida Marlins may be the most overrated closer in baseball. Nunez doesn’t get a lot of ground balls, nor does he strike out a ton, as he gives up a ton of fly balls (49%) and home runs (8 in 56 IP). Nunez’s ERA of 4.63 actually looks worse than his 4.02 FIP, so he has been a little unlucky, but still not very good.
Joel Hanrahan has found a home at the back-end up the Pirates’ bullpen, and is thriving there. While his K rate has dropped to 7.85/9 IP from almost 13 last year, he has walked less batters. Hanrahan has been able to induce ground balls on over half of his plate appearances, and only given up 1 home run in 57 1/3 innings. His stellar numbers have allowed him to tie Rivera for 2nd in closer’s WAR this year.
JJ Putz’s resurgence as a closer this year comes as no surprise to many. Last year as a setup man for Bobby Jenks with the Chicago White Sox, Putz’s K rate was just below 11/9IP, while he walked only 2.5 per 9 innings. He hasn’t put up the same strikeout numbers this year, but he is walking less batters. Putz’s WAR of 1.0 puts him towards the top of the list of closers.
Out of the top 30 relievers in WAR, only 9 are full-time closers. Francisco Rodriguez is among those pitchers, but since he does not close games since traded to the Milwaukee Brewers, he was not counted. Although this doesn’t mean that just ANYONE can close games and earn saves, it does show that many pitchers who have not been given the opportunity probably could get the job done.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Intern, Rob Bland. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
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