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David Ortiz to the Jays or Yankees? Try the Rays or Angels
Monday October 17, 2011
MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen: With the World Series all set to commence on Wednesday (Cardinals and Rangers)- our attention is slowly shifting to the upcoming free agency period. A big name (literally) of discussion has been David Ortiz, or better known in baseball circles as “Big Papi”. The rumor mill is running wild as to where Ortiz will play in 2012. Let’s shed some light on the subject and clear up the confusion.
The soon to be 36-year old Ortiz is coming off one of his finest seasons in recent memory. Papi finished with a steady all-around season: 29 home runs, 96 RBIs, 84 runs, 78/83 BB/K, .309 AVG and .953 OPS. Ortiz was named to his 7th all-star team and finishing up a 5-year, $64.5 million contract. For a player that appeared to be in decline back in 2009, Ortiz has shown the last two seasons that he has some juice left in the tank. But with the Red Sox in shambles, given the departure of long-time manager Terry Francona and soon to be ex-GM Theo Epstein, Ortiz himself has said that Boston has become too much of a soap opera. The question on every baseball fan’s mind: will he stay or will he go?
The Ortiz decision to stay in Boston will largely depend on several factors. Firstly, it is unclear whether the team wishes to retain him or go in a different direction. As an aging team with hitters that could use the rest from playing in the field every day, the Red Sox may not longer wish to commit the DH spot to one exclusive batter. Taking that into account with Papi’s streaks and slumps that past few years and recent comments, may be enough for the Red Sox upper management to wish to move on. But if the team does wish to retain him, or give in to fan pressure to keep Ortiz (which is likely to come given his immense popularity), will Papi himself want to remain in Boston? Only the man could answer that question. To know the answer, one would have to get into the player’s head. Does Otiz get along with his teammates or are there divided fractions? How much did the 2011 collapse take a toll on his morale? When will a new GM come into place and will he be able to have a good relationship with Ortiz? Same issue for a new manager…and you get the idea. There are many variables that put into question whether Ortiz could or would stay in Boston.
In my estimation, Ortiz is on his final contract. He will likely obtain a 2-year contract, with an option for a third. Based on his rich history and legacy in Boston, I think that when push comes to shove- the player will stay. Boston needs Papi; and Papi needs Boston. It would not feel right to see Ortiz in another uniform (check out highlights from his days in Minnesota and you will see what I mean). Major League Baseball also would love to see Ortiz remain in Boston for marketing purposes. With so many vested interests in getting this deal done, I believe it will happen. But what if it does not? What if Papi jumps ship? I see his options as far and few between.
The first option that jumped out was the Yankees. It will not happen. While the Yankees would love to stick it to Boston, they will not likely want another aging DH on their hands after the Jorge Posada fiasco this past season. The Yankees also have Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira and company that need days off the field, A-Rod especially given his failing health. With A-Rod becoming a part-time DH as soon as next year, the Yankees cannot afford to take on Papi at this stage. Plus the team has up-and-coming superstar Jesus Montero that needs playing time and has nothing more to prove in AAA. So the Yankees rate as a no.
The next options for Ortiz? It will only be American League teams as he is only a DH at this stage of his career. The only realistic teams that have the open position and fit are Toronto, Tampa Bay and Anaheim. The Jays are being thrown around many circles as a possible destination. It makes sense for several reasons. Ortiz knows the ballpark well from his AL East days. He gets along well with Jose Bautista and would serve as a great mentor for the Jays young hitters. Toronto was missing production last season from the DH spot and would welcome Papi’s bat. But despite these factors, I don’t see this signing happening. Ortiz will want to play on a contender and fight for another ring. His career is winding down and so are his chances. While Toronto has a strong young nucleus, they are at least 2-3 years aways. As much as this would be a feel-good signing, I would rate is as another no.
Thus the battle for the services of David Ortiz will boil down to the Tampa Bay Rays and Anaheim Angels. Two strong playoff contending teams that desperately need his bat. Tampa Bay should be the favorite, given the familiarity of the AL East and the strong need of the team. The Rays have the lineup spot for Ortiz and should make a big push for him. The Angels have the same need, but not the best fit for position. The team has a logjam in the outfield with Mike Trout likely to be with the big club next year and Kendrys Morales returning to the team from injury. But when there is a will, there is a way. Like many other squads, the Angels would need to do some creative shuffling to make room for Ortiz. Vernon Wells may need to be moved for a bad pitcher’s contract in return (Carlos Zambrano anyone?) Kendrys Morales may not be recovered or Trout may not be ready. The Angels went through a desperate need all year in 2011 for runs and will not want to face the same issue come 2012. Papi could be the perfect short-term solution for the Halos.
The four-horse race to sign David Ortiz will come down to the Red Sox, Jays, Rays and Angels. The Rays are my dark horse favorite and best overall fit. The Jays would love to take him on, it will just depend on the confidence Papi has in the team’s ability to compete. Boston will hang in right till the end and the Angels will need to be aggressive to get him. If we are playing the odds, I would rate Boston as a 70% favorite, followed by Tampa Bay at 20% and the Jays/Angels at 5% each. Once the World Series ends, let the David Ortiz sweepstakes begin!
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports
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How Far Will the Yankees Go in the 2011 Playoffs? Prediction Time
Sunday September 25, 2011
Jeff P (Guest Writer – MLB reports): The Yankees entered the season with a troubled rotation, some great bullpen signings from the offseason, and a star-studded lineup.
As the season commenced, the Yankees had immediate troubles in the rotation. The troubles in the rotation started with their former number two starter Phil Hughes, who seemed to be dominant going into the year, yet wasn’t able to play due to a “Dead arm”. The rotation ended up being filled by a rookie (Ivan Nova), C.C. Sabathia, a struggling A.J. Burnett, and two veterans who weren’t very successful in the past few seasons (Colon and Garcia).
The Yankees were up for the challenge, as they not only beat out the nearly untouchable Red Sox in the AL East division race, but also had a season full of historical baseball moments. Derek Jeter, became the first player in Yankee history to reach the 3,000 hit mark, as for Mariano Rivera, who is now the all-time leader in saves in Major League Baseball history.
Bartolo Colon, and Freddy Garcia unexpectedly became huge parts in lifting Yankees until the day they clinched the division spot. As for Ivan Nova, he won 16 games for the Yankees in the “Journey to the playoffs”. Now the Yankees are finished with that chapter and are now on a new journey: the “Journey to the World Series”.
The playoffs are about to start soon, as the Yankees are in the process of last-minute preparations. Unnamed sources have leaked
out that Ivan Nova will start game two, and A.J. Burnett will not appear as a starter in the playoffs. The Yankees’ playoff rotation is looking more favorable for Freddy Garcia to be the number three starter, as Bartolo Colon is going through a horrific slump. Colon’s ERA (earned run average) in September is well over a 6.50, resulting in his ERA surpassing 4.00 on the season. Therefore it is probable that Freddy Garcia will be named to start for the Yankees in the 2011 MLB playoffs.
There have been multiple questions concerning Jesus Montero’s spot in the Yankees playoff roster. To date, it seems likely Yankees will proceed to place him on the roster in place of Francisco Cervelli, as he is expected to come back later in the playoffs due to concussion symptoms.
Besides the rotation, bullpen, and the Yankees lineup, backups also take on a big role in the “Key to success”. The Yankees backups are looking extraordinary as the season is nearing an end. The backups will include a trio of Eric Chavez, Eduardo Nunez, Andruw Jones, and either Jesus Montero or Jorge Posada as of now. The backups are looking promising, and can take a big part in the “Journey to the World Series”.
The Yankees have a team full of playoff greats, such as Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, and others such as Alex Rodriguez, and C.C. Sabathia. There is a debate as to whether the veterans can lift the Yankees this year to championship Number 28. The answer is that the Yankees veterans have the promise playoff strength. Veterans such as Derek Jeter (also known as Mr. November), and Mariano Rivera, among others who have experience and the strength to lift the Yankees in the postseason. However, the Yankees veterans are aging, and as they age, they get less and less reliable. This leaves the backups with a huge role to fill.
The Yankees teams consists of youth, veterans, and a great deal of confidence. The confidence was within the clubhouse on Thursday, as C.C. Sabathia stated in an interview with MLB.com, that if he plays correctly he will win. With the attitude and the strength to do so, the Yankees could go far into the playoff race this year.
The Yankees will most likely play the Texas Rangers, or the Detroit Tigers. There is uncertainty which team as of yet, though each team has their ups and downs, and certain distractions they will have to face. Let’s take a look at the potential matchups:
Detroit Tigers: The Tigers have an outstanding rotation coming into the playoffs. Max Scherzer, is a strikeout master, while Justin Verlander is just about a master of everything. Verlander has produced great success this year, as he is seeking to win the AL Cy Young, and possibly become the first pitcher to win the AL MVP award in the last 20 years.
Doug Fister will be a huge part of the Tigers playoff plans, as his ERA dropped below 3.00 recently. His September stats consist of four wins and a 0.69 ERA. Fister’s streak is looking unstoppable, and will be a hard match for the Yankees. The Yankees pitching isn’t looking very promising as of late, and the Tigers clearly win that category. If the Yankees can’t produce runs against the hard throwing Tigers’ pitching staff, it may be hard to get by them. The Tigers key hitters are Miguel Cabrera, Alex Avila, and Victor Martinez. With the Yankees pitching rotation banged up, the Tigers could prove to be a very difficult opponent.
Prediction: Yankees in five
Texas Rangers: All eyes are on the Rangers banged-up rotation now. C.J. Wilson, who has been having substantial success this year for the Rangers, is facing a problem to think about. As the offseason approaches, so does free agency. Free agency can affect not only the thoughts of players, but how they are playing. Thoughts are a very powerful thing, as on different occasions it can be hard to think about free agency when playing. The pressure is immense. Although in Wilson’s case, the pressure could prove to be a motivator to pitch well.
Alexi Ogando, Derek Holland, and Colby Lewis are among the other probable starters. All of them are decent pitchers, though they occasionally rely on help from their offense for run support, which will prove to be the main problem for the Yankees rotation.
The Rangers lineup includes Mike Napoli, Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, and Ian Kinsler in the heart of their lineup. This will
be an extremely difficult problem for the Yankees rotation, as Rangers seem to possibly have the best lineup in the majors. The Rangers offense may possibly even be better than the Yankees lineup. If the strength of the Rangers rotation and lineup continue to consume strength, the Yankees could be outmatched.
Prediction: Rangers in five
Assuming the Yankees play the Tigers, and proceed to the second round, with either the Red Sox/Rays (depending on who wins the wild card), or the Rangers, both series will be a close call and consist of exciting games to watch. The Red Sox are in a similar situation as the Yankees, as their pitching staff has averaged a 6.60 ERA in the last ten games played. If we have a Yankees and Red Sox matchup in the ALDS, it will likely go the full seven games- where anything is possible.
The Yankees have made history this year and accomplished feats over the years that no team has ever matched. Most importantly, the team wants to succeed. Success is a big thing for the Yankees organization. The Yankees are survivors, never give up, and always look to come back when down. This year has already been one big accomplishment, as the Yankees surpassed the Red Sox in the standings and possibly in making the playoffs. Now the team is looking for championship rings in the year of 2011.
***Today’s feature was prepared by Jeff P, Guest Writer to MLB reports. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Jeff on Twitter.***
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Back Stiffness or Sitting Out, The Posada-Gate Report
Sunday May 15, 2011
MLB reports: A big tilt was scheduled for last night, Yankees vs. Red Sox. Always a classic between two of the biggest rivalries in baseball and all of sports. While both teams have taken time to get out of the gate, signs were starting to appear that each was starting to come around and getting ready for a dog battle for the AL East crown with the Rays all summer long. One minor sidenote was the lineups, which was shaken up by Yankees manager Joe Girardi. Struggling DH Jorge Posada, normally batting somewhere in the middle to lower-end of the Yankees lineup, was dropped to the #9 slot. Considering that Jorge was batting .165 and struggling all season for the Yankees, most baseball fans and analysts would not have given the move a second thought. In fact, most would have applauded Girardi for making the necessary move to most help his ball club and perhaps ignite his stagnant DH. But something happened along the way that resulted in Posada missing yesterday’s matchup. As the mystery of the missing Posada is unfolding, tongues cannot stop wagging and the baseball world has its focus on New York to attempt to solve “Posada Gate”.
From the news and people that I have spoken with, it is clear that Jorge Posada came to manager Joe Girardi before the game and asked to be taken out of the lineup. Girardi accommodated Posada in his request and changed the lineup. Somewhere along the way Posada made mention of “feeling disrespected by the Yankees” as well. The issue becomes blurry as it does not appear that Posada indicated at the time of his removal that he had any sort of injury and the comments on being disrespected is being directed to being placed in the #9 slot in the Yankees batting order. During the game last night, damage control was in full effect. Posada’s wife, out of all people, tweeted during the game that her husband was suffering from back stiffness and that was the reason for him missing the game. The “back stiffness” account was confirmed by Posada’s agent as of this morning and by Posada himself last night after the game. But something seems awry and not sitting right with me. Let’s dig deeper to see if we can get to the bottom of this.
Brian Cashman, the Yankees General Manager, informed the media that Posada had removed himself from the game and did not make it known that any injury was behind the decision. From reading Cashman’s comments, I had the distinct impression that the Yankees were not impressed with Posada’s actions. Having Posada indicate that he felt disrespected was the kick in the teeth, the igniter of this Yankees fire. I cannot understand what Posada was thinking in making such a statement, but it is clear that both player and team need to work towards finding a quick resolution to Posada Gate. The team does not need such a distraction coming from one of its elder players and possible future hall of famer. But in order for such a resolution to arrive, both team and player need to come clean, apologize and move forward.
Lets be clear from one end. The New York Yankees do not owe Jorge Posada a single thing. In 2007, the Yankees granted the then 35-year-old Posada a 4-year, $52.4 million contract. On the open market, coming off back-to-back 20+ home run, 90+ RBI seasons, Posada would have been lucky to obtain a 2-year, $20 million deal. The Yankees were essentially bidding against themselves and out of loyalty and reward for Posada’s years of service to the team, compensated him with one last big score. The team knew full well that Posada would not be able to play out the contract as a catcher and would like move to 1B or DH at some point, making him less valuable from a financial standpoint. But the team gave Posada his due and he happily accepted the contract.
Taking a look at the situation following Posada’s signing, the value has not been there. Posada was injured for much of 2008, limited to 51 games. In 2009, Posada at 37 had his last big season, with 22 home runs, .285 AVG and .885 OPS. But as we recall, Posada and teammate A.J. Burnett were having issues, as A.J. was insistent that Molina catch his games rather than Posada, based on Posada’s eroding skills behind the plate. While much of the blame was directed at Burnett, Posada did little to calm the waters. The Yankees stood behind Posada then, even considering that his defense was no longer acceptable at the major league level. Going into 2010, Posada remained the Yankees catcher and played 83 games behind the plate. Finishing the season with a .248 AVG, the Yankees were in a bind. They had one more year to go with Posada with a monster contract. Despite needing to make a change sooner, the Yankees showed Posada loyalty by sticking behind him up to that point. But with the highest payroll in the game and team performance and team results coming first, the Yankees made the right move. Former all-star catcher Russell Martin was signed as a free agent after being let go by the Dodgers. The Yankees were able to outbid the Jays and Red Sox for his services and have been handsomely rewarded with Martin’s strong play behind the plate and with the bat. Beating out the Red Sox, with the second-worst hitting catching tandem in baseball, makes the signing that much sweeter. With also three of the top catching prospects in the game sitting in their farm system, the Yankees clearly had options. Jorge Posada, based on his declining numbers and skills, was not one of them.
So here is where we sit today. Jorge Posada got his big contract. The team stuck with him through injuries and poor play, despite the fact that it was not the best decision from a baseball standpoint. Going into 2011, the Yankees said “no more” and moved Posada to DH full-time. To be able to save wear and tear and focus on offense, experts agreed the move was best for the team and player. Posada offered little resistance, although he did indicate in the media several times that the adjustment was difficult and one that he did not necessarily enjoy. But sitting in the middle of May, hitting .165, Jorge Posada was not in a position to make demands or question his manager’s authority. Posada should be embarrassed with his statistics and working towards improving himself, rather than blaming others. My feel for the situation, is taking a look at the lineup card Posada did remove himself from the lineup out of pride. But where is the pride when he collects his giant paychecks every 2 weeks and does little to show for it? That is the problem with baseball and sports. When a player does well and is underpaid, he demands higher compensation out of “fairness”. But when a player is making a lot of money and does not perform, the player does not return the money despite the fact that the team is not receiving its value. “Respect” seems to go one way but not the other and that is not right.
The Yankees are justified in being upset with Posada, as they have shown him respect to-date as shown above. When Posada removed himself from the
game, the team justifiably took it as a slap in the face and called the player out for his treason. Coming to his senses and realizing I believe the mistake of his ways, Posada is now trying to justify the situation by claiming “back stiffness” caused his decision to not play yesterday. But why would he conveniently forget to tell his manager this piece of information? If the team was aware of Posada’s injury, Cashman would have responded differently to the media. Posada looks to me like a kid caught with his hand in the cookie jar and is now trying to get himself out. The truth would have been best but now with the injury claim, Posada has made himself and his team look terrible and guilty. Nobody wins in these situations.
The Yankees, don’t get me wrong, are not without fault. I do not agree with how Cashman spoke to the media. If Cashman spoke to Posada about the situation, both the player and team should have issued a joint statement after the fact. But airing one’s dirty laundry in the media is not the proper method to use. While the team is justified in being upset over Posada’s actions, it should have dealt with the matter privately and in-house. Now the cat is out of the bag and difficult to hide and clear away.
I have seen this situation time and time again with teams and veteran players. The issue is not as much the Yankees and Jorge Posada, but teams giving big money and long-term deals to older players. It rarely works and often blows up in everyone’s faces. Think to Frank Thomas, Raul Ibanez, Milton Bradley, Aaron Rowand, Barry Zito…how many of these big contracts to older players ended up working out. What kills me is that the teams pay $10s of millions of dollars and its the teams that are seen as disrespecting the players by sitting them, moving them around in the lineup or releasing them. That is not fair in my estimation. If the players are cashing their cheques, there comes a point where they need to shut up, play and do as the team tells them. But this notion is getting lost in baseball and is being lost in the Jorge Posada story today.
Where Posada Gates goes from here, few of us know. The likely scenario is that the player will stick to the injury story, the team will grumble under its breath and the relationship will continue smoothly for the rest of the year. Posada’s agent surely told him that he did not have a leg to stand on and to keep his reputation and contract in check, sticking to the injury story would be best for his image. After all, if Posada did come out and state that he sat yesterday because he was upset for being dropped in the lineup, he would branded and blasted in the New York media. But truthfully, I would have respected him more if he had come clean rather than rely on the childish cover-up attempt after the fact. At the end of the day, the deed is done and we all need to move forward. Both player and team need to say their respective stories, make peace and move forward. But based on the Yankees loyalty shown to Posada, let’s remember the full story before we jump to conclusions.
Jorge Posada will be a free agent at season’s end. The Yankees have already indicated that he is not in their plans and that they will be moving forward come to 2012. I do not know of many teams that are looking for ex-catchers in their 40s hitting .165 as their lineup targets. Baseball is evolving like we have never seen before. Teams are going away from 40-something DHs and keeping the spot open for younger players to rotate throughout games to keep everyone healthy. With the steroid era at an end and team salaries at an all-time high, baseball is becoming more than ever a young man’s sport. While many players used to hang around till their 40s to pad their career numbers, players like Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa and Jermaine Dye essentially had mandatory retirement thrust upon them by a lack of interest. Jorge Posada is one of the lucky ones. He is getting to play to his 40th birthday and earning a maximum career salary. While many players in their mid-30s need to play on minor league deals and incentive structures, Posada is getting full and unconditional pay. Posada had to realize this year that he could no longer play in the field and is looking towards the future and realizing that he soon may not be able to play at all. Rather than blaming the team, it is time to look in the mirror and to think how much he has left in the tank. For a team that has given him so much money, opportunities and shown so much faith in him until this year, it is time for him to pay the Yankees back. I hope to see everyone take the high road on this one at the end of the day. It is better for the player, the team and the game. Posada Gate was interesting and provided all of us with good conversation piece. Now let’s be done with it and turn our attention to the only thing that should matter: baseball action on the field.
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E-MAILBAG: Ask the Reports, Wednesday May 11th
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We will be compiling a list of your questions from our e-mailbag and posting the responses on Wednesdays.
Wednesday May 11, 2011
Q: Where do you see the Boston Red Sox finishing this season in the standings? From Jake, Boston
MLB reports: My crystal ball in March said that the Rays would win the AL East, with the Red Sox finishing second in the division and taking the AL Wild Card. I have no reason to deviate from my prediction thus far. Despite the strength of the Yankees, the Red Sox have so much talent that several hot streaks are in store. When playoff tickets go on sale, go ahead and order for the opening round at least.
Q: Fantasy question: Should I dump Jorge Posada for Ryan Doumit, Chris Iannetta, Wilson Ramos, Ryan Hanigan, or Hank Conger? I probably should have done something Monday, as Posada’s .151 AVG is killing my team. From Bonzi, Parts Unknown
MLB reports: I take it that your league counts average, based on your e-mail. Turning 40 this summer, Posada has definitely seen better days. He does have 6 home runs and 14 RBIs, but his numbers overall are fantasy suicide. I can’t believe Iannetta and Doumit are still available in your league. If so, grab them in that order. Iannetta is 28, plays in Colorado, has 5 home runs, 13 RBIs, .398 OBP, .494 SLG. His .250 AVG is nothing to write home about, but as the #1 catcher for the Rockies, Iannetta has the biggest upside. Doumit will be traded to a contender at some point likely but while he has shown a steady bat this season, he is always an injury risk. If Iannetta is not available though, I like Doumit over Posada. Ramos has been a nice player for the Nationals but is still young and likely won’t play at this level all season. I would trust Posada over him. Hanigan and Conger are nice replacement bats for injury but as part-time players offer little upside at this point. If either was starting, they would still rank below Posada this season for me.
Q:Why do teams not pitch Jose Bautista away, away, away ALL the time? Why even try to challenge him inside? From Garrett, Michigan
MLB reports: It is not that simple Garrett, as Bautista has become
such a dangerous hitter that there are not many pitches that he does not get to. Judging by his 100 walks last year, which will be higher this year, Bautista has a great eye at the plate. Based on the damage that he can do, I frankly don’t understand why teams just don’t walk him 4-5 times every game. Being the strongest offensive option currently in the Jays lineup by a country-mile, Bautista is a long-ball threat every at-bat and taking the bat out of his hands likely will be best at minimizing the damage. With not many healthy hitters in the Jays lineup that are threats to drive him in, I agree that opposing pitchers should not give Bautista much to hit…and in my opinion, not even give him the option at all.
Q: Fantasy Trade Evaluation: Aramis Ramirez & Alfonso Soriano for Jason Bay & Brandon McCarthy. Who’s winning? Who’s losing? I have Ryan Zimmerman on DL. I am giving up Bay and McCarthy. From Mike, Brooklyn
MLB reports: This one is a toughy. I wanted to say Bay and McCarthy to keep, but I can’t do it. My factors are as follows. McCarthy is 27 and has great upside. But he is injury prone and cannot be counted on to stay healthy. He can literally drop at a moment’s notice. Plus he is 1-3, despite a 3.26 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. With little wins potential and health concerns, this trade really boils down to Bay for Ramirez and Soriano for me.
Bay has been a disaster since coming to the Mets. Poor production and concussions issues have done him in. With 6 home runs last year and 1 home run this year with a .213 AVG, 7/19 BB/K ratio, Bay is regretting his decision to leave Boston for New York. Bay is already 32 and his window of opportunity is closing. Ramirez and Soriano are no spring chickens either. Ramirez though has a .286 AVG with 14 RBIs, despite only 1 home run and .718 OPS. Soriano has a league leading 11 home runs, 21 RBIs and 18 Runs, with a whopping .550 SLG despite an unsightly .242 AVG and .270 OBP. If you can stomach some of the warts shown by the 35-year-old Soriano and 32-year-old Ramirez, they will still provide much of the stats and comfort that Bay and McCarthy won’t. In some ways this is a headache for headache trade, but by making the deal, you are getting the likely higher returns. Go for it.
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Top Home Run Hitters: MLB 2011
MLB reports: For pure fun today, I wanted to scan the major league baseball leaderboard and evaluate the top home run hitters of 2011. While this list can change at a moment’s notice, looking at the board with over three weeks into the season is always fun. At least my idea of fun. I originally planned to make a top ten list, but that was going to prove to be futile. Six hitters sit at the top of the list with seven home runs a piece and eight hitters tied for second with six home runs each. Let’s take a close look at the top fourteen then and see which hitters are likely to remain on the list and which have caught lightning in a bottle for a few games.
First Place – Seven Home Runs
Jose Bautista: Toronto Blue Jays
After 54 home runs last year, is anyone still waiting for a slowdown? With 19 walks already, .359 AVG and 1.256 OPS, Bautista continues to build on the momentum of last year. Living up to his large contract extension signed in the off-season, it appears that the new Jose Bautista is here to stay. At 30 years of age, Bautista is showing that he has enough juice in his bat to approach another 50 home runs this year.
Adrian Beltre: Texas Rangers
Another big contract signing entering 2011, Beltre has made good on the promise of his bat hitting in Arlington. Inconsistent throughout his career, analysts have often said that if healthy and playing in a hitters park, the sky is the limit. Beltre hit 48 home runs back in 2004 playing for the Dodgers and have never approached those numbers since. At 32 and playing in one of the best hitters park in a stacked lineup, big numbers could come his way. I see somewhat of a regression, but 30-35 home runs is a safe bet at this point.
The Hebrew Hammer has 128 career home runs in four seasons going into 2011. He has Prince Fielder in the lineup with him. At 27, Braun is this generation’s Ralph Kiner and Hank Greenberg. No slowdowns ahead for this Brewer as he shoots for his first 40+ home run season. The 2007 NL Rookie of the Year is a future MVP and his time could come this year.
Curtis Granderson: New York Yankees
The only surprise in the top home run hitters category, Granderson has always shown glimpses of brilliance but injuries and slumps have slowed his path. The 20/20/20/20 season in 2007 was impressive, as was the career high 30 home runs that Granderson hit in 2009 for the Tigers. Even though he missed 26 games last year to injury, he still was able to amass 24 home runs. Now healthy and with the short porch in Yankee stadium, Granderson has a good chance at equaling and besting his career best power numbers. Given the Yankees lineup as well, I would not count him out. Granderson is unlikely to remain among the league leaders in bombs, but a solid 30+ home run season is definitely in order.
Albert Pujols: St. Louis Cardinals
Coming into this season, the Great Pujols hit a Ruthian 408 home runs in 10 seasons. Truly our generation’s Babe Ruth, Pujols has to be considered one of the best home run hitters of all time. With an .806 OPS, Pujols hasn’t even begun to heat up. Pujols has Holliday and a resurging Lance Berkman for protection and going into his first free agency year, expect legendary numbers by seasons end. This is Albert Pujols we are talking about…I do not have to say anything else.
Troy Tulowitzki: Colorado Rockies
Still only 26 years old, Tulowitzki is working towards becoming the best player in baseball. Missing significant time in 2008 and 2010, Tulo still has 99 career home runs going into today. Playing in the home run haven called Colorado, all Tulo has to do is to stay healthy to succeed. As this is an odd year, history is shown that he will likely play close to a full season. His career high of 32 home runs is well within reach and I can see a 40+ home run season this year. The talent and circumstances are all there…all he needs is health.
Second Place: Six Home Runs
Lance Berkman: St. Louis Cardinals
Going into the second tier of top home run hitters, we find some resurgent players, surprises and expected studs. Berkman was an uncertainty coming into season. The 35-year-old Big Puma has seen 40+ home run seasons in his career. 2010 was an injury shortened season and after getting traded to the Yankees and faltering in New York, critics began to write him off. I was a big fan of his move to St. Louis, back to the NL Central and the opportunity to play with Pujols and Holliday. Defense aside, Berkman’s 9 walks and league leading .725 SLG show that the Puma is back. With the occasional days off and prime spot in the lineup, 35 home runs is my predicted total for this superstar.
The man has seem to been around forever but is actually only 30 years old. Gomes has seen several 20+ home run seasons in his career, including 18 in 2010 playing in a career high 148 games. With 18 walks, Gomes has disguised his poor .212 avg this season with a .386 OBP and .530 SLG. The owner of a lifetime .332 OBP and .463 SLG, Gomes will get a fair amount of playing time this year. While he is not the second coming of Adam Dunn, Gomes has clearly found a home in Cincinnati. His lower average and 19 strikeouts concern me at this point as he will need to become a steadier hitter to continue to receive steady playing time. Part of the surprises of this list, expect a return to form in order for Gomes. Despite lofty totals, I cannot foresee a 30 home run season coming, even though he plays in that ballpark. He is too streaky and Dusty Baker is not patient enough to stick with him.
Howie Kendrick: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Not one of my favorite players to cover, I have always soured on Kendrick for his inability to take walks. With a career high of 10 home runs (twice), low stolen bases totals and inability to consistently get on base, I have rarely seen the upside of Kendrick at the plate. This season, apparently as light switch has gone off inside his head or bat, as Kendrick is well on his way to shattering his previous power numbers and already has 10 walks on the season (last year he set a career high of 28). Does a leopard change its spots…or does a Kendrick learn patience? I will believe it when I see it. I have watched Kendrick for too long to be sold on what I have seen thus far. if he is still able to keep up this approach going into July, maybe I will cut him some slack. Until then, I expect to see Kendrick off this list by mid-June at the latest. A nice run, but a run is all this is at the end of the day in my opinion.
Russell Martin: New York Yankees
The second Yankee on our list has found a new home and new lease on life in the Bronx. Martin had a career high 19 home runs in 2007 playing for the Dodgers, earning a Silver Slugger award that year. With an OPS of 1.099, Martin is the early favorite for Comeback Player of the Year. Playing nearly every game this season and enjoying a healthy hip, Martin apparently has renewed drive and focus that was previously lacking in Los Angeles. At 28 years old and continuing our trend of young superstars on the list, all Martin really has to do is stay healthy this year. In the loaded Yankees lineup and with the short porch, Martin has a chance at 25 home runs this year.
Jorge Posada: New York Yankees
Yankee #3 is on the downside of his career, or so we are led to believe. The 39-year-old Posada is a full-time DH for the full-time in his career. While his .153 AVG and .711 OPS, his 6 home runs (of his 9 total hits) is outstanding. Too many factors are against Posada staying on the leaderboard. Health is always a concern and despite no longer playing the field, any tweaks at this point could send the elderly Posada to the DL. Further, his numbers are showing that when he is not hitting home runs, he is simply not hitting or getting on base. As Posada continues his best Rob Deer impersonation, I don’t foresee great things ahead for the future hall of famer, nearing the end of an outstanding career.
Carlos Quentin: Chicago White Sox
Both Chicago teams are represented, with the powerful Quentin starting off for the White Sox. The likely pick for MVP had he stayed healthy in 2008, Quentin has a laundry list of injuries and ailments his entire career. But when healthy, Quentin is always a home run threat. With a 1.023 OPS and having Rios, Dunn, Konerko, Ramirez and Beckham in the lineup for protection, Quentin looks to best his career high of 36 home runs in 2008. I am sitting on the fence on this one. The potential is there, but so are the injuries. Expect at least a couple of trips to the disabled list but assuming reasonable health, I will take 30+ home runs for Carlos. The Adam Dunn factor cannot be discounted, as he will prove to be great protection for Quentin all season long.
A 20+ home run hitter for nine straight seasons, Soriano was written off for dead by many experts, yours truly included. 2009 was a dismal season for Soriano and although he had a steady return last year, at the age of 35 and with knee issues, little was expected from the talented Dominican. Despite his .513 SLG this season, there are several reasons to expect a continuing decline for Soriano. His BB/K rate this year is an abysmal 3/21, as his .244 AVG and .272 OBP. If you ask me, I see Soriano slowly decaying into the next Yuniesky Betancourt. Soriano is still a lock for another 20+ home run year but with the rest of his game on such a rapid decline, don’t expect much else. If the Cubs have any other options, I expect Soriano to see more time on the bench or even a trade in order. But at his salary, I cannot foresee any team taking a chance.
Mark Teixeira: New York Yankees
The last player on our list and Yankee #4, Teixeira clearly did not get the memo that we are in April and not August. A notorious slow starter, Teixeira is already up to twelve walks, .402 OBP and .621 SLG. For the 31-year-old Teixeira who has 281 career home runs, his career high of 43 home runs in 2005 could be broken. Considering that Teixeira has the ability to hit 10-12 home runs per month in the summer, I see a clear breakout year for this superstar first baseman. The Yankees went out and got him for a reason. In addition to his gold glove defense, I am smelling a possible silver slugger and MVP award in 2011.
What is the future of this list? Hard to tell without a crystal ball, as so many factors can arise. Injuries, playing time, lineup position…things can change. But a trend is clear from the early season home run leaders. Most are in the 27-30 year-old age bracket and are proven home run hitters in their careers. I expect most of the above hitters to remain on the list, with some surprises to fade away and new players to emerge. Other superstars, like Joey Votto and Adrian Gonzalez will join this list very soon. But even in the short span of three weeks into the season, it is clear that even with only a few games played, the home run hitting cream is already rising to the top.
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