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Ask the Reports: Sunday December 11th

Sunday December 11, 2011

Jonathan Hacohen: Posted every Weekend: Your top baseball questions from the past week are answered. E-mail all questions to mlbreports@gmail.com, message us on Twitter and post on our Facebook Wall!

Let’s get to your top questions of the week:

Q: Seriously, do you not think a large portion of pro athletes are using PHDs? It’s just a mistake when they get caught. Randy (via Twitter)

MLB reports: The Ryan Braun saga is upon us. The debate as to the use of performance enhancing drugs has been in play for too many years now. The names Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Barry Bonds, Rogers Clemens, Sammy Sosa, Manny Ramirez…etc…etc… will forever live in PED infamy. Then Major League Baseball introduced drug testing, with HGH testing upon as well. After years of rumors and whispers, the sport was finally going to be clean. Now we have the news that Ryan Braun was tested positive for use of PEDs. I do not want to comment on Braun much until we have all the information. What we do know from reports is that Braun was found to have high levels of testosterone and determined to have resulted from artificial means. Braun is appealing the findings and more news will follow. Braun was named the 2011 NL MVP, which makes the situation that much more volatile. So do I think that a large amount of pro athletes use PHDs? I can speak of baseball and I would say in recent history, the answer is yes. I don’t want to unfairly label the sport and say “everyone was using them”, but many definitely were. With the introduction of proper testing and penalties, I think use has been curbed substantially. Looking at the numbers players put up in baseball in recent years compared to even ten years ago, there is a clear drop-off. Plus we are not seeing late 30s, early 40s players putting up astronomical numbers they way they were. So the sport is cleaning itself up in my estimation. But we have not seen the end of this topic. Far from it. As tests become better, the drug makers will become even more sophisticated in created betting masking agents to avoid detection. It is a nasty cycle. Just the mere fact that Ryan Braun could be considered using PEDs means this story lives on. Baseball will never fully clean likely. But it is certainly on a very good path. Hopefully, PED use eventually becomes almost non-existent in baseball one day.

Q: Can’t wait to see Mike Choice though. He crushed in single A last year. But offensively, we’ll (the A’s) be pretty slow in 2012. Pigaroo (via Twitter)

MLB reports: Agree and agree. I am very high on Michael Choice as well. There is nothing not to like. The 22-year-old Choice was a 1st round pick (10th overall) by the A’s in 2010. After a nice debut in his first professional season playing Low A-Ball in Vancouver in his draft year, Choice exploded last year playing High A-Ball in Stockton. The numbers were fantastic. 30 home runs, 82 RBIs, 79 Runs, .285 AVG, .376 OBP and .542 SLG. The future looks bright for Choice, as he likely to start 2012 in AA. But let’s keep some things in perspective. He is 22. He is still very raw, as shown by his 61/134 BB/K last year. Choice has a world of potential and is definitely a top prospect in baseball. But then so was Brandon Wood once upon a time. Dallas McPherson. Even looking in the A’s system, Chris Carter and Michael Taylor have developed much slower than expected. Choice has not even proven himself yet in AA, so there is still time for him to shine or fade. Prospects are almost impossible to predict, as many factors can affect their development. Health. Confidence. Ability. Work Ethic. Chances. If anyone area isn’t there, the rest of a person’s game can suffer. So while I am not devaluing the abilities of Michael Choice, I certainly want to see more from the kid before I hail him as the next A’s savior, as is being done in many circles. The Oakland A’s are clearly in a full-blown rebuild mode, as evidenced by their recent trade of Trevor Cahill and likely trade of ace Gio Gonzalez. Josh Willingham is likely to move on as well, as will Coco Crisp, David DeJesus and perhaps Hideki Matsui. The A’s will struggle in 2012 in all facets of the game, to score runs, not give up runs and win ball games. Remember the movie Major League? Sadly, you might be seeing the new Cleveland Indians, as the team owner threatens to move the team. A sad period for a once proud franchise, I certainly hope their stadium situation is resolved soon and the A’s go back to being a baseball powerhouse. Thank you for the questions!

Q: Do you think Josh Willingham would be a good fit with the Tribe? He would cost about as much as D Lee last year with 2 more years. Martin (via Twitter)

MLB reports: Thank you Martin for the question. I definitely think Josh Willingham would be a great fit for the Indians. I think you are comparing his contract status to that of Derrek Lee, who is coming off a 1-year, $7.25 million contract. On your logic, do I think the Indians could sign The Hammer for 2-years and $14.5 million? I do not. Sorry my man. The Hammer is looking at a contract in the 3-year, $30 million range. Do I think that he is worth it? Yes…but it depends. At an affordable rate, I would take Willingham at 2-years with a vesting or option 3rd year. There are strikes against Willngham, no doubt. He will be 33-years-old come opening day. He has battled injuries the last 4-years, missing significant time in 2008 and 2010. The numbers have been consistent, but 2011 was actually a misleading year. While he hit 29 home runs with 98 RBIs, Willingham also hit a career low .246 with .332 OBP. Amazingly, Willingham actually hit better at home than on the road, a surprise given that Oakland is one of the premier pitcher’s parks. .260 AVG at home, .233 on the road. .350 OBP and .523 SLG at home, .315 OBP and .435 SLG on the road. Imagine then what Willingham could do in a better hitting park surrounded by a stronger lineup? With Willingham, beware of injuries and age. If you can live with those risks, then he should be a sure bat in the middle of a lineup for 1-2 more years, perhaps 3. But the decline is coming…so buyer beware.

Q: Ok guys, it’s time to announce locations (for the 2013 World Baseball Classic) so that we can make our plans. I went to Orlando in 2006 and the next series saw Netherlands beat the Dominican Republic – twice- in Puerto Rico.. Wow! So am I (and my family) going to Taiwan? Montreal? Mexico? Europe? If it’s Havana, I’m booking right away! King of America (via Website)

MLB reports: It is good to know that interest in the WBC is alive and well. I get asked often by non-baseball fans and casual supporters of the game whether the WBC will ever be a “big deal”…and the answer is: yes. Rarely a day goes by that I do not get a question or comment from a reader on the WBC. Aside from MLB Expansion, Realignment and Relocation, the WBC is the biggest topic that I deal with on a daily basis. The tournament is growing leaps and bounds, as 2012 will see the qualifying tournament for the first time. The field for the WBC has been expanded from 16 countries to 28. The number will even continue to grow in future years. I have been contacted by reps from different countries requesting information on applying for consideration. Baseball fans from all over the world, including Iceland, England, South Africa, Panama, Venezuela, Russia and Israel have contacted MLB reports to learn about the World Baseball Classic. Unfortunately we do not have named sites yet for the tournament. All we know is that the qualifiers will happen in the fall of 2012, with the tournament itself in the spring of 2013. Will baseball go with the usual venues or add new ones? That is the million dollar question. As there will be qualifiers and an actual tournament this time around, I can see more countries and venues having the opportunity to host games. Hopefully there will be an expansion of host countries this time around, so that more baseball fans around the world can enjoy the flavor of live WBC games. We will keep you up-to-date and will have a dedicated page coming soon on our site. MLB reports will continue to be your source for everything WBC.

Q: What are the chances of the Yankees getting Gio Gonzalez ? Dano (via Twitter)

MLB reports: Good luck in finding more frustrated people wondering the earth right now that Yankees and Red Sox fans. Once known for setting the tone in signing premium players, both teams have been unusually inactive this offseason. The Red Sox have suffered from their well-chronicled issues this past season, which came full steam with the change of their manager, GM and loss of their closer. The Yankees, by not making out of the first round of the playoffs this past season are also considered in their own form of crisis mode. While the Yanks are fairly set offensively, it is pitching (or the lack of) that has fans worried. The team has a strong pen, anchored by the ageless wonder Mariano Rivera. But the rotation is a series of question marks beyond ace C.C. Sabathia. Spots will likely go to Ivan Nova and Phil Hughes. Then you have A.J. Burnett and Freddy Garcia. Maybe Hector Noesi. The return of Bartolo Colon? Yankees would like to see another proven starter, perhaps two hurlers to be added to the roster. While Gio Gonzalez may be one of them, I would say likely no. I took a look at Gio two weeks ago. His numbers away from Oakland make me nervous, and likely other teams as well, including the Yankees. The A’s are reportedly asking for a truckload of top prospects and the Yankees will not likely bite. I still expect the Yankees to find another starting pitcher. But not at the risk of depleting their farm. Gio is a good pitcher, don’t get me wrong. But he is not the ace pitcher that the Yankees need. Hopefully though the Yankees don’t wait too long after the holidays and end up shopping in the bargain bins in January for starting pitching again. The team got very lucky with Garcia and Colon last year. I wouldn’t take the risk again in 2012 if I were them. With their huge payroll and superstar team, the Yankees need to solidify their rotation to have a chance at the World Series.

Last Q: I’ve been hoping that someone like Bud Selig or others at MLB Headquarters would read these expansion ideas that me and many other fans have. I’ve shared my expansion idea to other online forums but many people have told me that further expansion would water down the talent pool. Do you think the new international draft would fix that problem? Joe (via E-mail)

MLB reports: A great last question to end this week’s Ask the Reports. I have enjoyed corresponding with Joe this week and wanted to include his last question to me in this edition. I have enjoyed debating the merits of MLB expansion for years. Many…many…many fans have used the watered down talent argument to argue against expansion. I am sorry people, but I don’t buy that argument. Go watch some AA and AAA games. There is a TON of quality major league ready talent that is simply rotting in the minors in my opinion. Between the 30 MLB teams, each has more than 5 minor league affiliate teams stocked with talent. To bring 2 more MLB teams, for an even 32 teams, there would be no problem finding 25 players per squad. Between prospects, free agents and international talent, there would be no issues to stock two more teams. The issues surrounding international talent, including an international draft, is a topic for baseball as a whole. While a draft could help with expansion, it is only a minor point in the larger scheme of the issue. The signing and development of international players is an issue for all current MLB teams that needs to be addressed in the overall competitive balance and growth of baseball internationally and to bring more talent to North America. I am all in favor of MLB expansion. My hope is that we will see 2 more teams in the next 5 years, but we could be waiting as far as 2020 and beyond until it becomes a reality. As far as international players…this discussion is far from dead and will be a sensitive subject for years to come.

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