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Strasburg-mania Back With a Vengeance

September 6, 2011


 

Rob Bland (Baseball Writer- MLB reports):  The day so many people (namely the entire Washington Nationals organization) have been waiting for is finally upon us.  Stephen Strasburg, ultra phenom, who I covered his rehab here last week at the Reports, started against the LA Dodgers.  The hype that was produced was incredible, with every major US sporting website having a headline dedicated to Strasburg-mania. The twitter hashtag #MerryStrasmus has been coined and millions of people are tuning in to watch his first start since Tommy John Surgery.

Strasburg is a big, strong kid who is known for his tremendous work ethic.  It comes as no surprise that he was able to begin pitching less than a year after getting the surgery.

The weather today in Washington DC was wet and dreary, so manager Davey Johnson was close to pulling the plug on the start if the game was even delayed.  The Nationals wanted to make sure Strasburg had enough time to warm up and be ready to pitch in the game.  When the tarps were taken off the field around 6:45pm, Strasburg was in the middle of his warm-ups.

Dee Gordon led off the game with a double, but after that, Strasburg didn’t see any trouble the rest of the way.  Matt Kemp grounded out softly in between fly balls by James Loney and Juan Rivera in the first inning.  The second inning was vintage Strasburg, as he threw 3 fastballs between 95 and 97 mph with run and sink, then threw a change-up at 90 mph that Andre Ethier swung over for strike three.  Aaron Miles was then disposed of with a  99 mph heater, and Rod Barajas hit a lazy fly ball to center field.

The fourth inning saw Strasburg get two more strikeouts and give up a single to Rivera.  Gordon and Rivera’s hits ended up being the only two base runners against Strasburg.  His outing ended in the 5th inning after a fly out, ground out and foul out.

Strasburg was dominant. His 4-seam fastball was  95-99 mph throughout his 56 pitch outing, 40 of which were strikes.  His 2-seam fastball had great late life, sinking late and inducing ground balls. Only 6 breaking balls were thrown, and although they were pretty sharp and late breaking, it was clearly his 3rd best pitch.  Breaking balls are usually the last pitch to come around after Tommy John surgery, because pitchers don’t start throwing it until later in their rehab.

Strasburg’s final line reads as follows:

5IP, 2H, 0R, 0ER, 0BB, 4K.

My pre-game prediction was:

5IP, 3H, 1R, 1ER, 1BB, 9K.

Aside from the strikeouts, I was pretty close.  Strasburg is such a rare talent, that a rainy and cold Tuesday night game against a non-contender such as the Dodgers drew over 5,000 more fans than their average season attendance.

Strasburg-mania really hit Washington on a cold, damp Tuesday night.  If he continues to pitch like this, the Nationals could be close to contending in 2012, but more likely in 2013 when Bryce Harper could be in the field on an everyday basis.



 

 

***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Rob Bland.  We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers.  You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***

 

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FRIDAY FACEOFF: CARLOS PENA VS. JAMES LONEY

MLB reports:  In another first on MLB reports, I will be running a series every Friday titled “Friday Faceoff.”  The series will matchup two MLB players at the same position and consist of a five point comparison between them.  The player with the most points at the end of the faceoff is victorious.  Especially for fantasy baseball players, the faceoff will give you an edge and strategy as to how to  fill your fantasy roster and set your lineups.

In the premier edition of the Friday Faceoff, I present James Loney of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Carlos Pena of the Chicago Cubs.  Two middle-of-the-road first basemen with the potential to hit the upper tier.  Do you have either player on your team?  Do you want to have either one in your lineup?  Lets begin the Friday Faceoff and find out!

CARLOS PENA VS. JAMES LONEY:  THE FRIDAY FACEOFF BEGINS

1)  Home runs/Power:  This is an automatic win for Pena.  James Loney in his last three major league seasons has averaged a paltry twelve home runs.  In his last two years, Loney has shown a SLG under .400.  Acceptable numbers for a catcher or second baseman maybe, but certainly not from a first baseman.  While he had forty-one doubles last year, Loney simply did not have enough extra base hits as required from a power position.  Carlos Pena, for all his faults has been consistently solid in his department.  In 2007 at forty-six home runs, Pena had almost the same amount of home runs in one year as Loney has hit in his whole career.  Last year, Pena hit twenty-eight long balls in a “down year”.  With a career SLG of .490, considering the slow start to his career, Pena clearly has power in abundance.  Last year interestingly, Pena had a SLG of .407.  But considering he hit under .200, we should cut him some slack.  Another note on James Loney, in 2009 he managed only one home run at home all year.  Neither player has set the world on fire to start the year, Loney with one home run and Pena with zero.  But based on history, the winner is:  Carlos Pena.

2)  Batting Average:  A statistic long in dispute, but for what its worth Loney has the clear advantage here.  With a .288 lifetime average, Loney is far ahead of Pena’s .241 career mark.  Carlos has a career high of 138 hits in 2007 and ony 95 hits in an entire season last year.  Loney since 2008 has averaged over 160 hits per season.  While Pena has the power, Loney gets the more consistent hits.  Not the standard for a first baseman, but if average counts in your fantasy league, then congrats if you have the winner in round two:  James Loney.

3)  On-Base:  With Loney’s career OBP mark of .348 and Pena at .351, the difference between the player is negligible.  As Loney has the hits as shown above, Pena has the walks. Pena since 2007 has walked 103 times, 96, 87 and again 87 times.  Loney had 70 walks in 2009 but otherwise walks approximately 50 times per year.  Pick your choice, if you need your first baseman to get on-base consistently, as this round ends in a tie.

4)  Durability:  A difficult factor to predict given the strains of playing 162 baseball games, Loney and Pena are examples of a contrast in measuring health.  Carlos Pena will be turning 33 this year and is starting to show his age.  While being fairly durable in his career, Pena has averaged approximately 140 games and 480 at bats in the last four years.  Loney over the last three years has missed 6 games in total.  Loney has also averaged close to 590 at bats over that time.  Entering his prime this year at 27, if you want to hedge your bets on who will be healthiest this year, your winner is:  James Loney.

5)  Speed:  Stolen bases is something that you rarely look for from your first baseman in fantasy baseball but will take as a bonus.  If your league counts steals, you will be very interested to find who wins this round. Pena has twenty-three steals over his ten major league seasons, with five steals actually coming last year.  With several seasons of zero and one steal per year, Pena is not someone you would exactly call a speed demon.  Loney on the other hand had ten stolen bases last year, with seven steals each year for the previous two seasons.  At a younger age and playing on an aggressive running team with Davey Lopes on board, expect Loney’s thefts to rise in a run-and-gun offense.  In the final round, another win for: James Loney.

THE VERDICT:  Going into this article, I fully expect to be handing a trophy to Carlos Pena in the first ever faceoff.  But sometimes number crunching can differ from expectations and in this case, the results were not as I had predicted.  Carlos Pena, for all of his home runs and walks does not offer most fantasy players the same consistency on the same number of levels as James Loney.  Despite lower power totals, Loney has the durability, batting average and speed advantage.  At this point in their careers, Pena and Loney appear to be on different tracks.  Pena is starting to be on the downside of his career while Loney should be entering his prime.  After two weeks into the season, both players have shown little so far.  But as the weather heats up, both should similarly get their games going.  But based on the Friday Faceoff, with a 3-1 record and 1 tie, James Loney is the fantasy first baseman of choice on this night.  While both players are truly average choices at first with many better options available, if the faceoff is an indication, you can do worse than having James Loney on your squad.

 

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