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Ask the Reports: Saturday November 19th
Saturday November 19, 2011
Jonathan Hacohen: Ask the Reports is back! After some thought and re-branding: we have decided to drop the E-mailbag moniker and to keep this section as “Ask the Reports”, which will appear every weekend. E-mails is but one form you can reach MLB reports. You can follow us on Twitter and tweet and direct message your questions and comments. You can “Like” us on Facebook and write on our wall. You can also leave all questions and comments at the end of each article and page on the website. With social media exploding as it has, we are truly connected in so many ways.
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Let’s get to your questions:
A: I could see Burrell taking time off from the game. Counting his dollars and maybe taking in a party or two (rumor has it that he is somewhat of a ladies’ man…). But given his quality eye at the plate with pop, Burrell clearly knew a thing or two about hitting in his day. Almost 300 home runs and 1000 walks do not happen by accident. When Pat the Bat is ready to return to the game, he will join the Giants or Phillies likely as a minor league hitting instructor, or full-time hitting coach. If he can show he can coach in the minors, you could see him as a hitting coach or 1st base coach one day in the major leagues. Pat the Bat has a future in baseball- provided that he can teach and work well with the kids in helping them develop their abilities at the plate.
A: They did call Matt Kemp “Baby Manny” for a reason. The Bison has always been highly touted coming up with the Dodgers. For the last 2 seasons going into this year, some of that promise was starting to show. Campaigns with 26 and 28 home runs respectively will catch people’s eyes. Kemp looked like a .290 hitter with 20+ home run pop. Pretty good- but not a superstar. Then in 2011, Kemp simply exploded. He led the league with 39 home runs and 126 RBIs, a difficult feat considering he had little support in the lineup and played his home games in a pitcher’s park. With a .324 average, we nearly had a triple crown winner. Kemp had a .399 OBP and .586 SLG. Superstar numbers. I am torn in analyzing him. He was a year away from free agency. Is he worth $20 Million per year for 8 years? That is all relative. Here is how I can best put it: what if Kemp would have hit .290, with 25 home runs with 90 runs and 90 RBIs in 2012 and hit free agency? Would he have received the same deal? Very likely. At that point would the Yankees or Red Sox given him 7 years and $140 million to sign? Carl Crawford got that same deal last year. At 28 years of age, Kemp has shown good health and appears to be in great shape. To say he is able to keep this pace until 35-years of age is not a stretch. At worst, Kemp would have landed $15 million per season for 7 years, a total of $105 million. So my thoughts are that the Dodgers would have needed to pay him $20 million for 2012 regardless. By signing him early, they may have overpaid by $35 million over the life of the deal. Or Kemp could have signed for $5 million per season on the open market (if no other alternatives) and cost an additional $35 million. In a perfect world, it would have been nice to have seen more 2011-type seasons from Kemp before handing him this type of contract. But given his fairly strong track record, health and young age, the Dodgers needed to lock him up now or risk very much losing him after 2012? Did they overpay? Not much by free agency standards. Even if they overpaid by $30 million over the life of the contract, as long as Kemp continues to stay healthy and produce great to strong numbers, this was a deal that had to get done. With the ownership turmoil and inability to attract and keep key players, this signing sends a message that the Dodgers are “back in business.” Exactly what the fans want to hear.
A: There are approximately fans from 30 MLB teams that are hoping their teams will make a push for the 2 likely biggest international free agents. Yu Darvish from Japan and Yoennis Cespedes from Cuba. While Darvish will need to be posted and bid upon, Cespedes once declared would be free to sign with any team. At 26-years of Cespedes is reported to be major league ready. Viewers of his YouTube video are excited at his abilities at the plate. He will reportedly cost in the $50 million range to sign. Darvish, at 25-years of age, is one of the most highly touted pitchers ever to come from Japan. If he is posted (which is still a big-if at this stage), Darvish is likely to cost north of $100 million (with the posting fee) to sign. Will the Jays sign either or both? My answer: no. Not because the team is not competitive. Far from it. But because they will not throw a lot of money on risky propositions. Neither player has played a single inning of Major League Ball. No matter how each has fared competitively to-date, few could predict how their games will translate to the major leagues. The Jays are already stacked in the oufield, with Bautista, Rasmus, Snider and Thames to choose from. Edwin Encarnacion is even being tried out in the outfield in winterball. Anthony Gose is also a young hot-shot prospect that will be landing in Toronto soon. The Jays do not have a strong need for an outfielder and certainly will not want to devote a large portion of their budget to an unknown like Cespedes. Especially given the mixed track record of Cuban hitters thus far in the majors. The Jays’ budget would be better spent on pitching. But to pay $50 million to win the Darvish posting and then sign him for another $50 million, that could translate to $20 million per season for 5 seasons. That is insanity money. At that point, I would rather sign C.J. Wilson for 5-years $100 million. A far more certain return. The Jays will pick up a strong DH bat this offseason, perhaps a new first baseman and 1-2 new starting pitchers. They will be shopping. But no mail-order-players are likely coming anytime soon to Toronto.
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Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen)
Adam Dunn: The Future of the White Sox Slugger
Wednesday August 31, 2011
MLB reports: Not every player can fit onto a particular MLB team. That is a baseball reality. In fact, there are very few, if any players that could produce the same statistics playing for any team. A player’s production is based on many factors, including home park, lineup, adaptability to particular cities and so on. When a team trades for a player or signs a free agent, the hope is that the new player will be able to meet or exceed previous production levels on a new team. Sometimes, the hope is that new environment will revitalize a stagnant player and breath new life into them. In the case of Adam Dunn, the Chicago White Sox signed him to a free agent contract last year. A large deal, 4 years for $56 million dollars. A fair deal in my estimation at the time. The White Sox by signing Dunn were hoping to land an established slugger to fit in the middle of their lineup. What they ended up with was quite different.
Take a look at Adam Dunn’s current production in comparison to his career numbers:
| BA | HR | RBI OBP | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regular Season | .163 | 11 | 40 .290 | |
| Career | .244 | 365 | 920 .374 |
To say that Adam Dunn has been anything but a disaster since his arrival in Chicago would be an understatement. Prior to 2011, Dunn’s worst season produced an .819 OPS. That was in 2003, his 2nd full season in the majors that was cut short by injuries. Turn the clock and Adam Dunn sits with a .578 OPS this season with no likelihood of redemption. While some pointed to Dunn playing in a new league for the first time and starting off slow, a turnaround was expected at some point this season. Dunn has actually regressed to the point that he is benched by manager Ozzie Guillen at a frequent rate. A sad state of affairs for one of the game’s previously most consistent sluggers.
For a two-year stretch, from 2003-2008, Adam Dunn was a 40 home runs and 100 walks guy. In his last two seasons, Dunn played in a less than friendly hitters park in Washington and still hit 38 home runs per season. Moving to the White Sox, expectations were that playing in a hitter’s park with a deep lineup would produce possible MVP type numbers for the burly slugger. So what happened? Why the sharp regression?
Part of the issue has been the move to the American League. The adjustment
has not worked for some hitters and we have seen NL hitters in the past that cannot play in the AL for whatever reason. Glenn Davis is one famous example that comes to mind, who moved from Houston to Baltimore and literally fell apart overnight. Dunn also is a full-time DH for the first time in his career. Some hitters never take as well to moving off the field and into a DH role, citing inactivity and removal from the full game experience as distractions from their hitting. Given though Dunn’s perceived weak fielding, at both first base and the outfield, a move to DH should have been a welcome change for him. Yet the move was another factor in his year-long slump.
The main culprit in my estimation is the fit, or lack of in Chicago. Perhaps it is the city, or the ballpark, teammates, media or his relationship with the manager. Whatever the reason, I ultimately believe that Adam Dunn and the White Sox simply do not mesh more than anything else. While a return to the field and/or the National League may help, first and foremost Dunn needs to get out of Chicago and start fresh.
I think of Chone Figgins and his move from the Angels to the Mariners. Despite staying in the same division even, Figgins was never able to meet expectations in Seattle and regressed throughout his time with the Mariners. Had he stayed in Anaheim, the chances are higher that Figgins would have continued playing his game and not transformed into a shell of his former self. Carl Crawford in Boston and Jayson Werthin Washington are players that also signed big-ticket deals and also stayed in their respective divisions, yet faltered in the wake of big contract expectations. But the difference with Crawford and Werth is that they have shown some glimpses of life this season, while Dunn has shown none. I fully expect Crawford at least to be able to make the necessary adjustments and rebound by next season. In Dunn’s case, I do not see that happening without a trade.
Nick Swisher is a situation that I will point to as an example. From the
moment Swisher was traded from the A’s to the White Sox, nothing went right. After suffering through the worst season of his career in Chicago, Swisher was traded to the Yankees for pennies on the dollar and blossomed in New York. The same will likely occur to Dunn. A move to the Yankees is a possibility, for a high-profile team that can afford to take on or part of most of Dunn’s salary. A trade for a bad contract is another one, with the Cubs for Zambrano or Giants for Zito as possibilities. Better yet, a move to the Angels could also be the answer. With Mike Trout ready to join an outfield of Peter Bourjos and Torii Hunter, the Angels may not have room for failed trade acquisition Vernon Wells. The White Sox could plug Wells into their outfield and Angels use Dunn to replace Bobby Abreu as DH. A long shot, but certainly a possibility.
No one can be sure if this season is an outlier or an indication of the beginning of the end for Adam Dunn. Based on his strong body of work until this year, I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt that a rebound will occur. The White Sox might wait it out and give Dunn another shot next year. But then GM Kenny Williams has never been the patient type. After moving Swisher very quickly, I expect the White Sox to do the same with Dunn. This would be a classic buy-low situation for another MLB club. Expect many calls on Dunn in the offseason and a new team by 2012. Despite Dunn indications of having retirement thoughts due to his poor season, I cannot see him going down in this manner. Adam Dunn will be back. The only question is where.
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Desmond Jennings, Tampa Bay Rays Makes His 2011 MLB Debut
Sunday July 24, 2011
MLB reports: Saturday July 23, 2011. The Tampa Bay Rays lose to the Kansas City Royals by a score of 5-4 in 10 thrilling innings. Joakim Soria got the win. Brandon Gomes got the loss. Eric Hosmer had the game winning hit. Just a normal Saturday night MLB game in Kansas City.
In the Tampa Bay loss, a new era begun in Rays baseball history. Desmond Jennings, the 24-year old top hitting prospects of the Rays, made his 2011 major league debut. Originally a 10th round selection back in the 2006 MLB draft, Jennings entering game action yesterday rated as one of the top prospects in the game.
Let’s take a look at the career statistics of Desmond Jennings:
| Year | Lev | R | H | HR | RBI | SB | BA | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | Rk | 48 | 59 | 4 | 20 | 32 | .277 | .749 |
| 2007 | A | 75 | 122 | 9 | 37 | 45 | .315 | .866 |
| 2008 | A+ | 17 | 22 | 2 | 6 | 5 | .259 | .772 |
| 2009 | AA-AAA | 92 | 158 | 11 | 62 | 52 | .318 | .888 |
| 2009 | AA | 69 | 121 | 8 | 45 | 37 | .316 | .881 |
| 2009 | AAA | 23 | 37 | 3 | 17 | 15 | .325 | .910 |
| 2010 | AAA | 82 | 111 | 3 | 36 | 37 | .278 | .756 |
| 2011 | AAA | 68 | 93 | 12 | 39 | 17 | .275 | .830 |
| 6 Seasons | 382 | 565 | 41 | 200 | 188 | .294 | .825 | |
| AAA (3 seasons) | AAA | 173 | 241 | 18 | 92 | 69 | .283 | .806 |
| A (1 season) | A | 75 | 122 | 9 | 37 | 45 | .315 | .866 |
| AA (1 season) | AA | 69 | 121 | 8 | 45 | 37 | .316 | .881 |
| Rk (1 season) | Rk | 48 | 59 | 4 | 20 | 32 | .277 | .749 |
| A+ (1 season) | A+ | 17 | 22 | 2 | 6 | 5 | .259 | .772 |
Jennings had his breakout season in 2009 and looked ready to work towards his MLB debut in 2010. However injuries slowed him down and he spent the season developing his craft in AAA. Come this season and we see the Jennings of old. In 89 games, Jennings already had 12 home runs, 68 runs, 39 RBIs, 19 doubles, 3 triples. a .275 AVG and .830 OPS. Most telling is that Jennings has been successful on 17/18 stolen base attempts. With little to prove in the minors and the Rays needing a serious offensive boost at the major league level, Desmond Jennings got the call to join the team yesterday in Kansas City.
One of the few true five-tool prospects in the game, Jennings was slotted in the leadoff spot and playing left field for the Rays. Expected to play solid defense and ignite the Rays offense, Jennings did not disappoint. The final boxscore shows the following stat line: 2 for 3, double, triple, 2 runs, 1 RBI, 2 walks, 1 SO and 1 SB. That is how you fill a box score ladies and gentlemen. The Rays brass must be overjoyed at the success Jennings enjoyed in his first game this season. Shades of Carl Crawford and Rickey Henderson no doubt.
With such a big game played, the expectations will already be high for Jennings. People have to remember that he is still raw and developing as a hitter. He is also young and will take time to mature. With so many holes currently in the Rays batting order, Jennings will not be pitched to every game if he stays hot. The league will also start to put a book together on him and find the holes in his swing and game. While his two walks yesterday were impressive, Jennings was still striking out much more than he was walking in AAA this year. The potential is definitely there, as he showed yesterday. The expectations just have to be kept in check.
Rays fans have been calling for the promotion of Desmond Jennings since spring training. With the team in contention, the time was right to give Jennings the call. Long-term, I can realistically see him as a 20 home run, 50 stolen base type hitter. The power is definitely there and he should be an extra-base hit machine as he finds his groove at the major league level. With the art of the stolen base slowly coming back to baseball, Jennings should win several stolen base crowns before his time is done. With the trade deadline looming, the Rays are looking at acquiring more hitting prospects to beef up their offense. With Desmond Jennings at the top of the order, the Rays will have an offense that will compliment its superior pitching. The World Series may not come to Tampa Bay in 2011, but the road to the championship just got more clear. Welcome to the big leagues Desmond Jennings. Well done.
Box Score: Desmond Jennings 2011 Debut
| Tampa Bay | 110 | 011 | 000 | 0 | — | 4 | 11 | 2 |
| Kansas City | 000 | 201 | 001 | 1 | — | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Tampa Bay | AB | R | H | BI | BB | SO | Avg. |
| Jennings lf | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | .667 |
| Damon dh | 5 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .279 |
| Zobrist rf-2b | 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .266 |
| Longoria 3b | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | .243 |
| B. Upton cf | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .229 |
| S. Rodriguez 2b | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .211 |
| b-Joyce ph-rf | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .289 |
| Kotchman 1b | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .329 |
| Shoppach c | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .179 |
| c-Fuld ph | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .244 |
| Chirinos c | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .214 |
| E. Johnson ss | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .197 |
| Totals | 40 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 15 |
| Kansas City | AB | R | H | BI | BB | SO | Avg. |
| Gordon lf | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .302 |
| Cabrera cf | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .294 |
| Butler dh | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | .288 |
| 1-Aviles pr | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .211 |
| Hosmer 1b | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | .277 |
| Francoeur rf | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .269 |
| Moustakas 3b | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | .202 |
| Pena c | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .256 |
| a-Maier ph | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .271 |
| Treanor c | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .227 |
| Getz 2b | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .253 |
| Escobar ss | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .249 |
| Totals | 37 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
No outs when winning run scored. a-struck out for Pena in the 9th. b-singled for S. Rodriguez in the 10th. c-struck out for Shoppach in the 10th. 1-ran for Butler in the 10th.
E: Longoria (7), Jennings (1). LOB: Tampa Bay 11, Kansas City 8. 2B: Jennings (1), Damon (17), Zobrist (30), Longoria (18), Gordon (26), Hosmer (14), Francoeur (25), Moustakas (4). 3B: Jennings (1), E. Johnson (2). RBIs: Jennings (1), Damon (43), Zobrist (50), Longoria (49), Gordon (52), Hosmer (40), Moustakas 3 (8). SB: Jennings (1), Gordon (9). SF: Moustakas.
Runners left in scoring position: Tampa Bay 9 (Kotchman 3, Zobrist 2, Damon 2, E. Johnson 2); Kansas City 6 (Cabrera 2, Getz 2, Butler, Moustakas). GIDP: Johnson. DP: Kansas City 1 (Francis, Getz, Hosmer).
| Tampa Bay | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | NP | ERA |
| Niemann | 6 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 92 | 3.86 |
| Jo. Peralta | 1 1/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 3.80 |
| Howell | 2/3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 7.94 |
| Farnsworth | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 1.99 |
| B. Gomes L, 0-1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3.78 |
| Kansas City | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | NP | ERA |
| Francis | 5 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 104 | 4.65 |
| Holland | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 40 | 1.20 |
| Crow | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 1.88 |
| Soria W, 5-3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 3.64 |
Crow pitched to 2 batters in the 10th. B. Gomes pitched to 2 batters in the 10th.
Holds: Jo. Peralta (14), Howell (4). Blown save: Farnsworth (4). Inherited runners scored: Soria 2-0. IBB: off Francis (Jennings).
HBP: by Howell (Francoeur). WP: Niemann. Balk: Howell.
Umpires: Home, Ted Barrett; First, Brian Runge; Second, Marvin Hudson; Third, Tim McClelland.
Time: 3:25. Announced attendance: 27,643.
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