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Hunter Pence to the Phillies: Breaking Down the Trade
Friday July 29, 2011
MLB reports: The past week in Houston has seen Hunter Pence rumors flying fast and furious. Analysts pegged Pence to be headed to many destinations, ranging from Boston, Atlanta, Cleveland, Detroit, Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. As early as this morning it appeared that there was maybe a 30% chance of the Astros getting a deal done. The Phillies were seen as the favorites, having offered a package of prospects to the Astros including Jonathan Singleton and Jarred Cosart. With the Phillies offer being rejected, word had Philadelphia out of the Pence sweepstakes. With Domonic Brown apparently sought by the Astros, it was unclear if a fit existed between the teams to get a deal done. With the Braves apparently unwilling to trade any of their top pitching prospects, including Mike Minor and Julio Teheran, there appeared to be a good chance that Hunter Pence would stay in Houston as the face of the franchise. That all changed this evening and as the news continued to spread quickly, Hunter Pence as of this evening is officially a member of the Philadelphia Phillies. The cost? Jonathan Singleton, Jarred Cosart, Josh Zeid and a player to be named later. The Phillies also get $1 million from the Astros to cover salary.
What the Phillies Receive:
Along with the $1 million as mentioned, the Phillies get Hunter Pence, one of the brightest young outfielders in the game. The 28-year old Pence was a 2nd round pick of the Astros in 2004. Pence made his MLB debut in 2007 and has been a consistent performer for the Astros ever since, with exactly 25 home runs per year from 2008-2010. The right-handed outfielder finished third in NL ROY voting in 2007 and was an All-Star in 2009 and this past season. Although his home run totals are down this year, Pence has displayed some of his strongest numbers this season. Along with his .309 AVG, Pence has a .828 OPS. The Phillies in need of a right-handed bat in their lineup jumped on Pence when given the chance.
The Phillies at 66-39 currently have the best record in baseball. With the Braves 5.0 GB, the Phillies could not afford to let a division crown slip through their fingers. With one of the deepest and best rotations in baseball history, Philadelphia is in win-now mode and anything less than a World Series championship will be considered a failure. With Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels and Roy Oswalt starting for the team, the Phillies definitely look and feel like a strong contender. From there, the team has its offense paced by Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. With Hunter Pence on board, the Phillies all of a sudden have a more balanced offense and become that much more dangerous. The outfield with Pence has become a little crowded, with Shane Victorino, Raul Ibanez, Domonic Brown, Ben Francisco, Ross Gload and John Mayberry. But too much talent can be a good problem to have and the Phillies have made themselves into a stronger contender by acquiring Hunter Pence. In the Phillies lineup and ballpark, the sky is the limit as far as the numbers Pence can reach. He is also under team control for two more seasons as an added bonus for a team that is trying to maintain continuity in contending for years to come in the NL East.
What the Astros Receive:
I was calling Jonathan Singleton “Ryan Howard Jr.” during his time in the Phillies organization. Watching him play, Singleton has one of the sweetest strokes in the minors and has the potential to be a big time masher when finally getting the call to play in the bigs. The 19-year old Singleton was an 8th round pick of the Phillies back in the 2009 draft. That is what you call great scouting. Considered one of the best, if not the best prospect bat in the Phillies organization, Singleton was drafted as a first baseman but later moved to the outfield with Howard standing in his way. With the Astros playing Brett Wallace at first, its likely Singleton’s stay in the outfield is a permanent one. Playing in high A ball this season, Singleton was showing that his game was taking time to develop. Singleton at the time of the trade was hitting .282 with an outstanding .386 OPS. While the power numbers are down, with 11 home runs and .411 SLG, it is key to remember that Singleton is young and will take time to develop as a hitter. The Phillies were very happy with him in their system and the Astros had to work diligently to get the Phillies to part with him. The Astros farm system instantly shot up with the acquisition of Singleton. Combined with Wallace he should pace the Astros offense for years once he gets the call one day.
Jarred Cosart is a 21-year old pitcher who is also playing high A-ball in the Phillies organization. Another draft steal, Cosart was drafted all the way in the 38th round in 2008. Cosart so far in his career has pitched fairly well, with a lifetime 3.67 ERA and 1.159 WHIP. Standing 6’3″, the right-handed Cosart was highly considered as well in the Phillies organization. With the Astros sitting at 35-71, by far the worst record in baseball and new ownership coming in, the Astros had no choice but to continue to tear down their team and start over. With Hunter Pence far and away their most desired and sought after bargaining chip, the Astros had no choice but to move him and continue to stock their farm.
In addition to a player to be named later, the Astros also received today Josh Zeid, a 6’5″ right-handed pitcher who has started and worked out of the pen throughout his Phillies minor league career. A 10th round pick in the 2009 draft, Zeid is again a late round gem discovered by the Phillies’ incredible scouting staff. The 24-year old Zeid excelled in his first two seasons but hit a road bump this year in AA. With a 5.65 ERA and 1.414 WHIP, Zeid had a down year in 2011 and clearly has ways to go before coming to the majors. But for a pitching staff in need of pitching depth, Zeid becomes another arm in Houston.
Verdict:
If we go on the measure that the team with the best player wins the trade, we have to give this one to the Phillies. They received Hunter Pence, an All-Star outfielder in the prime of his career, under control for two more seasons. In return, the Phillies gave up three players that were all late round picks for the team and a player to be named later. Jonathan Singleton will be a star in my mind one day, no question. But he is still a very young player playing in the lower ranks of the minor leagues and has a long way to go before coming to the majors. That is the funny thing about prospects: their future can seem so bright, but between injuries, confidence and the ability they display by their play, it is quite often a gamble. The Astros do well in this trade if Singleton becomes a number or three or four hitter in the majors and turns into the home run hitter that he is projected to be. Cosart and Zeid are arms that may turn out to be great or average. The Astros may get two additions to their rotation one day, or perhaps just two more middle relief arms in their pen. As difficult as it is to project prospects, pitchers are the toughest of the bunch as they are more likely to face injuries and wear and tear on their arms compared to any other position players.
For a team in the basement of major league baseball, the Houston Astros needed to rebuild. But to trade the last star player on their team for one solid prospect and two uncertain arms was not necessarily the route I would have taken. But this trade was as much financially driven as it was about talent. The Astros are about to be sold and the new owner already ordered a massive payroll cut. With Brett Myers and Wandy Rodriguez still on the team, the Astros most tradeable player was Hunter Pence. Considering that the Blue Jays got Colby Rasmus for three middle relief arms essentially, the Astros went young and with more upside in this trade. Personally, I think very highly of Singleton having watched him play in the past. As one of the best young hitters in the minors, the Astros got themselves likely a future superstar. But the key word is likely. For what the Astros received back in potential, they gave up in certainty. Hunter Pence is a current star player that will fit immediately in the Phillies lineup with no cost off the team’s major league or AAA rosters. Until one or more of the prospects the Phillies receive produce at the major league level, which could be years away, the winner of this trade is the Philadelphia Phillies. Our preseason pick to win the World Series just got that much stronger. The rest of baseball has taken notice and competing teams will need to beef up their rosters over the next two days if they hope to have a shot of catching the Phillies in the postseason.
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Team USA: Preview of the 2011 MLB All-Star Futures Game
Friday, July 8, 2011
Rob Bland (Intern Candidate for MLB Reports): With the World Team roster covered here on the Reports, we now bring you the potent line-up of Team USA. They are highlighted by standouts Mike Trout (LAA) [named to the squad but just called up to the Angels] and Bryce Harper (WAS). Team USA also boasts an electric mix of pitching arms, including Shelby Miller (STL) and Jacob Turner (DET).
PITCHERS
Jarred Cosart – RHP –Texas – PHI –Clearwater Threshers – A – Florida State League
Jarred sits in the mid 90s and has touched 99 in some starts. This is his second straight year at the Futures Game, although he did not pitch last year. He has average command, as witnessed by his 36 walks in 92 innings, but if he can improve upon that, many scouts see him as a frontline starter.
Kyle Gibson – RHP –Indiana – MIN –Rochester Red Wings – AAA – International League
Gibson has the look of a middle of the rotation innings eater. His fastball has late sink, which gets him a ton of ground balls. With better defense as he moves up, and his ability to throw strikes, he could be a fairly useful 3rd starter.
Matt Harvey – RHP –Connecticut – NYM –Binghamton Mets – AA – Eastern League
Harvey pretty much carved up the Florida State League earlier in the year, but in 3 starts in AA, he has not been able to get past the 5th inning. He strikes a lot of guys out, and doesn’t walk many. As he matures and makes adjustments, he should succeed. He is expected to fast track to the Mets rotation, possibly as early as 2012.
Shelby Miller – RHP –Texas – STL –Springfield Cardinals – AA –Texas League
Ranked as the 4th pitcher in Baseball America’s Midseason Top 50 Prospects List, Miller has been skyrocketing through the ranks, as he got to AA before his 21st birthday. Miller has struck out 119 batters in 91 innings, while his WHIP sits at 1.10. His fastball usually sits in the low 90s with sink and run. He also possesses an above average changeup and a good curveball. Miller has all the tools to win a Cy Young Award someday.
Matt Moore – LHP –Florida – TB –Montgomery Biscuits – AA – Southern League
Moore is rated 3rd overall on BA’s list, and has top of the rotation stuff. He led the minor leagues in strikeouts in both 2009 and 2010, collecting 384K in 267 IP between High-A and AA. Moore has picked up where he left off, with 125 K already this season. His best pitch is a curveball from a low ¾ arm slot.
Brad Peacock – RHP –Florida – WAS –Harrisburg Senators – AA – Eastern League
Another pitcher who seems to finally have put it all together, he has 129 K and hitters have a paltry .179 average against him. Peacock is wiry and should fill out to increase his velocity. I see him as a mid rotation guy with a good fastball and breaking ball and decent change.
Drew Pomeranz – LHP –Tennessee – CLE –Kinston Indians – A –Carolina League
Pomeranz sits at 92 with his fastball, with good command. His breaking ball can be a plus, although it is inconsistent. He keeps the ball in the yard, and due to his large workhorse type frame, he could be an innings eater at the number 2 or 3 spot in a rotation.
Tyler Skaggs – LHP –California – ARI –Visalia Rawhide – A –California League
Skaggs has gained 15 pounds over the offseason, which has allowed him to raise his velocity a couple notches. For a lefty who throws from a ¾ slot, he has surprisingly little movement. His changeup has improved this year, which makes me believe his ceiling could be as a number 2 starter, but most likely settles in the 3-4 range.
Tyler Thornburg – RHP –Texas – MIL –Brevard County Manatees – A –FloridaState League
This 3rd rounder in 2010 has simply overmatched his competition so far this year. With an ERA under 2.00, and opponents hitting under .200 against him, even after a move up to the Florida State League, Thornburg has the tools to succeed. He has a good fastball and a power curve while his changeup needs time to develop. If it doesn’t, a career in a setup role is possible.
Jacob Turner – RHP –Missouri – DET –Erie Sea Wolves – AA – Eastern League
Turner has a heavy fastball with late life that sits around 93, touching 95. He has a sharp, but inconsistent curveball, which if he polishes, could be a devastating combo out of the pen. For a guy who just turned 20 playing AA, Turner has pitched very well with a K:BB ratio at 2.7:1. Opponents have also only hit .233 off of him.
CATCHERS
Devin Mesoraco – C –Pennsylvania – CIN –Louisville Bats – AAA – International League
Catchers with 25-30 homerun power are so rare that they often get moved to first base or even the outfield. Mesoraco’s defense is average at best, so the move does seem likely in a few years. Mesoraco walks a fair amount and is a doubles hitting machine, which makes me think he will be an above average regular by 2013.
Austin Romine – C –California – NYY –Trenton Thunder – AA – Eastern League
Romine hasn’t wowed anyone with his bat, but has shown steady improvements from year to year. In his second year of AA he has raised his average, OBP and OPS. He has a cannon for an arm and quick feet, although his receiving isn’t quite ready. He could be a solid regular in a few years if the Yankees give him the chance.
INFIELDERS
Nolan Arenado – 3B –California –COL –Modesto Nuts – A- California League
This big, strong third baseman has decent feet and an average arm, so I see him being Todd Helton’s replacement in the future. He has a power bat that should develop even further as he matures. Arenado doesn’t strike out much and walks enough to have a decent OBP, so his bat will suffice at any position.
Tim Beckham – SS – Georgia – TB –Montgomery Biscuits – AA – Southern League
Although he hasn’t quite lived up to the hype of his number 1 overall selection in the 2008 draft, he has shown enough skill to keep moving up the ladder. Every year, his numbers have improved, and I believe he is close to a breakout. He is still a plus defender which will keep him in the big leagues for a very long time.
James Darnell – 3B –California – SD –Tucson Padres – AAA –Pacific Coast League
Darnell just got called up to AAA after dominating Texas league pitching. His defense is simply average, and may have to move to a corner outfield. However, his bat is his plus tool, as he has shown even more improvements from his 2010 season in which he struggled. He already has 19 home runs, and has walked 52 times as opposed to only 48 strikeouts, so his approach at the plate is advanced.
Paul Goldschmidt – 1B –Delaware – ARI –Mobile Bay Bears – AA – Southern League
Goldschmidt has unreal power potential. He has been a solid hitter at every level, but has taken his game to another level this year. He already has 25 HR and 77 RBI, and he walks a ton. This guy could be in a big league uniform as early as this September, but more than likely will be sometime in 2012.
Grant Green – SS –California – OAK – Midland Rock Hounds – AA –Texas League
Green profiles as a true shortstop with slightly above average hands and arm, with the ability to produce good numbers offensively. He hit 20 HR last year in high-A, and the move to AA this year has stunted his power, but he still walks and gets on base at a good clip. He isn’t flashy but he gets the job done and could be one of the better regular shortstops in the league.
Jason Kipnis – 2B –Illinois – CLE –Columbus Clippers – AAA – International League
This former center fielder shifted to 2B, where his lack of range still limits him to being only an average defender. However, his bat will keep him in the big leagues for many years. His numbers have improved every year, despite moving up a level. He walks at a good rate and has some pop. Doesn’t have a high ceiling, but what you see is what you will get.
Manny Machado – SS –Florida – BAL –Frederick Keys – A –Carolina League
Machado is still thin, but looks like he could fill out, in which case a move to third would be warranted. He has a plus arm and solid footwork to go along with his very soft hands. Although he has struggled a bit since being called up to high-A, he has the IQ to really succeed at the plate. He takes pitches and isn’t afraid to hit with 2 strikes.
Will Middlebrooks – 3B –Texas – BOS –Portland Sea Dogs – AA – Eastern League
Middlebrooks has had a slow ascent through the minors, and with continued production, he could get a look at the big leagues by next year. He is a solid defender at third, with a good bat. Needs to work on discipline as his K:BB ratio is at 59:18. Could be a regular in the big leagues by 2013.
OUTFIELDERS
Gary Brown – CF –California – SF –San Jose Giants – A –California League
Brown has absolutely blazing speed, with a very good bat. He has stolen 35 bags, but also been caught 14 times, so he must learn to choose his spots more wisely. Brown also shows the ability to hit for power, stroking doubles in the gaps consistently.
Bryce Harper – RF –Nevada – WAS –Harrisburg Senators – AA – Eastern League
By now, everyone knows the legend of Bryce Harper, and he has lived up to the billing. He dominated the Arizona Fall League as a taxi squad player, and showed enough early in A-ball to warrant a call-up straight to AA. The fact that Harper could even surpass people’s expectations is astounding, and I believe he could be a September roster addition for the Nationals.
Wil Myers – OF –North Carolina – KC – Northwest Arkansas Naturals – AA –Texas League
Myers moved from catcher to outfield in the fall of 2010, and this move should pay off for him in the long run. He is aggressive at all times, and he is extremely raw still. He lost part of the season due to an infection from a cut, so he is just rounding into form now. AA has been tough for him, but his tools will shine in the long run. One of the favorites of the Reports, keep an eye on this kid.
Matthew Szczur – OF –New Jersey – CHI Cubs –Peoria Chiefs – A –Midwest League
Szczur has tremendous speed and he covers a lot of ground in the outfield. He hits well for average, but hasn’t quite developed his power yet. This could happen as he matures. He walks at a decent clip, and has the ability to steal a ton of bases, so he could be a mainstay near the top of the Cubs line-up.
**Mike Trout – CF – New Jersey – LAA –Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – MLB
As I began writing this, it was reported that Trout had been recalled to the big league team, and no replacement has yet been named. Trout does everything well, and many people were very excited to see him play alongside Harper. He may not offer as much power as Harper, but he might be one of the fastest players in the big leagues.
Many people will be disappointed that Trout and Harper won’t be playing alongside each other in the Team USA outfield in the Worlds Game, but there is so much talent at this year’s event that nobody will leave Chase Field disappointed. MLB`s ability to showcase not only current talent, but future stars, highlighted by this year’s fanfest events, make the MLB All-Star Weekend festivities the best of any of the major sports. Get ready for an explosive Futures Game this Sunday, as the youngsters duel for the spotlight and the chance to make the major leagues one day soon.
***Thank you to Rob Bland for preparing today’s article on the All-Star Futures Game, preview of the World Team. You can follow Rob on Twitter.***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox, click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
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