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Thursday June.13/2013

The Dodgers don’t lead the Majors in many categories this year (except for Bench clearing brawls). The 1st incident with the Padres cost them Greinke with a broken clavicle. He will likely be suspended for more games. Who else will be suspended?? We should find out from baseball today. Meanwhile the team is 28 – 37 – and 11 Games behind Arizona.

It is time to call it like it is – and back it up with some cold hard facts.  As a former professional oddsmaker, I understand why the ESPN page lists the Blue Jays at a 2.8% chance to make the playoffs – and the Dodgers just slightly better at 2.9%. 

The math involved is not even as complicated as Sabermetrics.  I will show you how they have derived this notion.  The fanbases will always tell you that they are one big winning streak away from jumping back into the mix. 

They would be right some of the time (Note the 2007 and 2009 Rockies, the 2012 Athletics, the 2011 Cardinals and Rays also made up around 10 Games deficits for playoff spots even in September).

I can also think of the 2005 Astros flying off the wall in the second half to earn a playoff spot.

Here is why these two teams are deep trouble.

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