Blog Archives
Stolen Bases: Fantasy Baseball Strategies to Increasing Steals
Thursday November 17, 2011
Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst – MLB reports): Of the five categories in standard 5X5 roto leagues, it is SB’s that fantasy owners most commonly have the incorrect approach. In this article I will highlight players to target and avoid in the stolen base department, as well as discuss basic fantasy strategy.
There are certainly several one trick ponies, such as Brett Gardner, Michael Bourn, and Coco Crisp, who provide elite production in this department. However, there are a couple of things you must consider. These types of players, who will hopefully hit for average and contribute to runs, will hurt your team’s HR and RBI performance. Therefore, be sure that you have excess value dispersed throughout the rest of your lineup to compensate. Secondly, you are heavily relying one on player for your production in this category, and as a result an injury can leave your team devastated. Thus, it is essential, particularly in the early rounds, that you find players who do everything, including steal bases. Even 5-10 steals that a player contributes above the position average will give you a significant edge.
A player to target next year, Eric Hosmer, quietly stole 11 bases in 2011. The young left-hander batted .313 with 11 HR and 44 RBI’s in the second half last season. While his still progressing power production puts him the second tier of first baseman, his double-digit stolen base potential makes him intriguing and perhaps underrated. Still, this guy finished the season with 19 home runs and 78 RBI’s in 128 games played. Since there are a slew of first baseman that finished with 30 home runs and 100 RBI, they will likely be targeted before Homer. Therefore, I like Hosmer as a guy who might just as well approach these power numbers but also steal 15 bases. For this same reason, I like Joey Votto over any other first baseman not named Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera. While, Adrian and Gonzalez and Prince Fielder might put up higher power numbers and similar batting averages, Joey Votto’s 10 stolen bases will make him significantly more valuable. Albert Pujols is also good for ten stolen bases as well. Only Miguel Cabrera out produces Votto enough in the other four categories to excuse his lack of stolen bases.
Now extend this approach to each position. Dustin Pedroia and his 25-30 stolen bases is more valuable than Robinson Cano and his 5-10 stolen bases, despite the fact Cano finished with 7 more home runs and 25 RBI’s. A player I like at this position if you can afford to take the hit in HR’s and RBI’s is Jemile Weeks, who finished with 22 stolen bases in just 97 games. He will get to play full-time in Oakland, and as long as he is hitting above .290, can be valuable to your roster as a good source of steals. On the decline is Brandon Phillips who has dropped from 25 to 16 to 14 stolen bases the last three seasons. This makes him no longer elite, especially when Ian Kinsler is doing 30/30. An interesting group of players, Kelly Johnson, Danny Espinosa, and Ben Zobrist each his 20 home runs and stole over 15 bases. However, they each struggled with average. Again, take not of your team’s strengths. If you own Votto and a couple of other average anchors, these types of players can be good sources of power and stolen bases at the second base position.
Instead of continuing on and telling you the elite base stealers position by position (you can easily look this up), I will give you my 2012 sleepers and busts.
Stolen Base Sleepers:
Don’t forget that Brett Lawrie’s one-quarter of a season not only put him on pace to hit 36 home runs and 100 RBI’s, but also projected him to finish with 28 stolen bases.
Peter Bourjos made noise at the end of the season and once stole 50 bases in the minor leagues. For the speedy outfielder, it was al
l about getting on base after a 2010 debut in which he batted .204 in 51 games. However, he greatly improved his contact ability, although still needs to improve walk rate, and batted .271 and stole 21 bases for the Angels. He also hit 12 home runs, and has the potential for a productive .280 15 HR 30 SB stat line in 2012.
After stealing 19 bases in 2011, I expect Shane Victorino to reach the 30 mark once again in 2012. It’s not that he didn’t run when he was on base, but his lower than usual BABIP and high than usual ISO (measures true power) simply meant he was not on first base as often as he normally is. With Rollins likely out of Philadelphia, I expect Victorino to ne at the top of the lineup and as aggressive as ever on the base paths.
Keep you eye Cameron Maybin, who stole 40 bases in 137 games for the Padres. As long as he has the chance to play semi-regularly, he is elite in the stolen base category. Furthermore, he appears to be approaching double-digit home run output as well, although he is only a career .255 hitter.
Monitor where Coco Crisp ends up in 2012. I loved him at Oakland in 2011 because he was one of the better hitters on the team (sadly) and at times batted third, but also batted lead off and in the second spot. In addition to leading the American League in steals, he had decent contributions in other categories (8 HR and 54 RBI) compared to some of the other stolen base leaders.
Dexter Fowler is a name to remember because he is simply one of the fastest players in baseball. However, he only stole 12 and 13 bases during the last two years, respectively. He was also caught an alarming 25 times. If he can learn to run on the base paths, he can be elite in this category. It is possible for major leaguers to learn the art of stealing bases. Look at Adam Jones, who was 12/16 on the base paths in 2011 after a 7/14 2010. I expect Jones, who is approaching a contract season, to come closer to 20 steals in 2012.
Speedsters to avoid? Juan Pierre. He really contributes in no other categories and is getting slower, getting caught 17 times in 44 chances in 2011. Furthermore, I do not expect any team to give him the 639 at bats that the White Sox foolishly provided him. Sadly, Ichiro Suzuki is clearly on the decline and appears to be a shell of his former elite self. The same is true with Bobby Abreu.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Fantasy Baseball Analyst, Peter Stein. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Peter on Twitter (@peterWstein).***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter (@MLBreports) and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Final Results and Recap: 2011 MLB Home Run Derby and All-Star Futures Game
Tuesday July 12, 2011
Rob Bland (Intern Candidate for MLB Reports): The MLB Home Run Derby is one of the greatest events in comparison to the All-Star games of any sport. Fans flock in droves to watch the event, hoping to catch an amazing feat such as Josh Hamilton hitting 28 in the first round in 2008, only to come in 2nd place, and Bobby Abreu hitting 41 total home runs on his way to winning the title in 2005.
When the teams were announced, the fans booed both Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks. Fielder was chastised for his selection of Weeks, as most casual fans were not aware of the pure power that he possesses. Weeks was chosen over Justin Upton, who would have been great in front of his Arizona hometown crowd.
Early on this Derby lacked excitement, save for Robinson Cano’s first round, in which he had his father, former major leaguer, Jose Cano, pitching to him. Cano blasted a number of balls deep into the right center field bleachers, his longest being 472 ft. Jose Bautista was a bit of a disappointment, smashing only 4 home runs and ended up being eliminated in the first round of the derby. Other disappointments included the aforementioned Rickie Weeks and Matt Kemp, who hit 3 and 2 home runs, respectively.
There was some excitement at the end, as both David Ortiz and Fielder hit 5 home runs a piece to tie Matt Holliday, forcing a 3-player swing-off for 3rd and 4th place. In this swing-off, each player received 5 swings in which to hit as many home runs as possible. Holliday led off with 5, Ortiz hit 4, and Fielder hit a perfect 5, two of which were mammoth shots.
The second round started off with Ortiz, and he began to show his age. Ortiz was likely tired after the first round plus enduring the sudden death swing-off. Ortiz hit only 4 home runs in the second round, and his average distance was 426 ft. Then came the Robinson Cano Show again. Cano launched 12 home runs in the second round, averaging 436 ft. His swing was picture perfect, and it seemed as though any time he didn’t hit a home run, his dad would be upset with him. Robinson’s dad knows his son’s strengths, and was confident he could hit that many. That is likely why Cano was named Robinson by his father, after the late and great Jackie Robinson.
Gonzalez was also able to put on a show in the second round, consistently pounding the ball 430+ft. He put on a display, hitting the
ball to the opposite field, and straightaway center field on his way to finishing with 11 in the round, and 20 total, tying him with Cano. Fielder was up next, and aside from his first swing, that he hit 474 ft, he was not able to do much else. He finished with 4 in the round, 9 in total. So, it came down to the Yankees and Red Sox again. Cano and Gonzalez square off in the finals.
Gonzalez immediately impressed, hitting 8 home runs in his first 3 outs. He cooled off and finished with 11 in the finals. With the most impressive rounds of the night, Cano hit 10 in his first 16 swings, needing only 1 more to tie Gonzalez. The crowd erupted as he hit a home run over 470 ft to tie it up. The very next swing was the one that did it, as he hit it out to right center field. Gonzalez had a record 11 home runs in the last round, and Cano was clutch in beating that.
What started off as a slow, uneventful night, wound up being a compelling night of watching the Yankees battle the Red Sox in a pure power slugfest. Robinson and his dad embracing by the mound. The American League beating the National League. All in all, this year’s edition of the Home Run Derby was nothing short of spectacular.
| Chase Field, Phoenix — AL 76 defeats NL 19 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Team | Round 1 | Round 2 | Subtotal | Finals | Total |
| Robinson Cano | Yankees | 8 | 12 | 20 | 12 | 32 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | Red Sox | 9 | 11 | 20 | 11 | 31 |
| Prince Fielder | Brewers | 5 | 4 | 9 | – | 9 |
| David Ortiz | Red Sox | 5 | 4 | 9 | – | 9 |
| Matt Holliday | Cardinals | 5 | – | 5 | – | 5 |
| Jose Bautista | Blue Jays | 4 | – | 4 | – | 4 |
| Rickie Weeks | Brewers | 3 | – | 3 | – | 3 |
| Matt Kemp | Dodgers | 2 | – | 2 | – | 2 |
In a game showcasing most of baseball’s brightest shining up and coming stars, there were several players who stood out from the pack. Although Bryce Harper (WAS) stole the spotlight in both the pre-game and post-game festivities, he did not shine quite as bright during the game. He was 0 for 4 with 2 strikeouts and 2 ground outs to first. One of which was hit fairly hard but a nice play by Yonder Alonso got the out.
Aside from two big innings, a 4-run 6th inning by the World Team hitters off of Drew Pomeranz, and a 3-run 8th inning off of Kelvin Herrera by Team USA, this was a game largely dominated by flame-throwing pitchers.
For the US Team, my standout hitters were Jason Kipnis, (CLE) who led off the bottom of the 1st with a home run over the right-centre field wall, and Grant Green (OAK). Green crushed a double off the top of the wall in straight-away center that I thought would have been gone in any other park. He also stroked another double, going 2 for 2 with 2 doubles, a run scored and RBI on his way to earning MVP of the game. On the mound, I was blown away by Matt Moore, Tampa Bay’s mega pitching prospect. He threw 11 pitches, 9 of which were strikes. His fastball was clocked consistently between 94 and 98 mph, and he was also throwing a devastating slider at 86 mph. Phillies prospect Jared Cosart was also very impressive. He racked up 2 strikeouts and a fly out on 10 pitches; 8 strikes. Sitting at 96 with the heater, he also displayed a plus change-up.
Jose Altuve (HOU) is a guy that doesn’t get much credit, because he stands at about 5’6”. However, the Venezuelan native has hit everywhere he has played. He was 2 for 3 with a single and a double, and I came away impressed with the diminutive infielder. Jurickson Profar (TEX) may have been the youngest player there, but he was not overmatched, as he stroked a triple off Drew Pomeranz and displayed his impressive speed. On the bump, Canadian James Paxton stood out to me. The University of Kentucky product threw 6 pitches; all fastballs, and induced 3 quick outs. He was between 94 and 96 and showed better control than I remember the last time I saw him. Henderson Alvarez (TOR) was also impressive, with a fastball that topped out at 98 mph, and getting Harper to ground out to first on a 95 mph sinker.
The US team jumped out to an early lead thanks to the leadoff home run by Kipnis in the first, and an RBI fielder’s choice by Wil
Myers (KC) in the 2nd inning. Team USA then made it 3-0 in the 5th on Green’s first double, which scored Gary Brown after he singled and stole second. In the top of the 6th, Drew Pomeranz (CLE) struggled, and gave up 4 runs. Alfredo Silverio (LAD) homered to left, scoring Dayan Viciedo (CWS) who had singled 2 batters prior. A walk to Chih-Hisen Chiang (BOS) and a double to Sebastian Valle (PHI) spelled the end of the night for Pomeranz. With the score knotted at 3, Profar then hit his triple off Kyle Gibson (MIN), scoring Valle in the process.
Green led off the 8th with a double, and Tim Beckham (TB) drove him in with a double of his own to tie the game at 4. After an Austin Romine (NYY) single and a Nolan Arenado (COL) double to right field, the damage was done, and the US had a 6-4 lead. Jacob Turner (DET) and Matt Harvey (NYM) split duties to close out the game for the US Team.
The US has now taken a 7-6 lead in the all-time series. A good number of these players will be on Major League rosters by season’s end, so be sure to check in on the minor league squads of your favorite teams for updates.
| U.S. Futures 6, World Futures 4 | ||||||||||||
| July 10, 2011 | ||||||||||||
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E | |
| World Futures | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| U.S. Futures | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | x | 6 | 10 | 0 |
| World Futures | AB | R | H | RBI | BB | SO | LOB | AVG |
| Marte, CF | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .333 |
| c-Fuentes, PH-CF | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 |
| Altuve, 2B | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .667 |
| Schoop, 2B | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
| Alonso, 1B | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | .000 |
| Viciedo, DH | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | .333 |
| d-Martinez, F, PH-DH | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 |
| Liddi, 3B | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .000 |
| Marte, J, 3B | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .000 |
| Silverio, RF | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .250 |
| Chiang, LF | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 |
| Rosario, W, C | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| a-Valle, PH-C | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 |
| Lee, SS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .000 |
| b-Profar, PH-SS | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 |
| Teheran, P | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Hendriks, P | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Paxton, P | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Martinez, C, P | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Perez, M, P | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Alvarez, H, P | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Vizcaino, P | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Herrera, P | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Marinez, P | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 |
| Totals | 34 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 11 | .235 |
a-Doubled for Rosario, W in the 6th. b-Tripled for Lee in the 6th. c-Flied out for Marte in the 6th. d-Popped out for Viciedo in the 7th.
BATTING
2B: Altuve (1, Skaggs), Valle (1, Pomeranz).
3B: Profar (1, Gibson).
HR: Silverio (1, 6th inning off Pomeranz, 1 on, 2 out).
TB: Marte; Altuve 3; Schoop; Viciedo; Silverio 4; Valle 2; Profar 3.
RBI: Silverio 2 (2), Valle (1), Profar (1).
2-out RBI: Silverio 2; Valle; Profar.
Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Liddi; Viciedo; Fuentes.
Team RISP: 1-for-5.
Team LOB: 6.
BASERUNNING
CS: Schoop (1, 2nd base by Gibson/Romine).
PO: Schoop (1st base by Gibson).
FIELDING
DP: 2 (Liddi-Altuve-Alonso, Lee-Altuve-Alonso).
| U.S. Futures | AB | R | H | RBI | BB | SO | LOB | AVG | |
| Kipnis, 2B | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .500 | |
| a-Green, PH-2B | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | |
| Machado, SS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | |
| b-Beckham, PH-SS | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .500 | |
| Harper, LF | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | .000 | |
| Goldschmidt, 1B | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | .000 | |
| Mesoraco, C | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | |
| Romine, C | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | |
| Middlebrooks, 3B | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .500 | |
| Arenado, 3B | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .500 | |
| Darnell, DH | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | .000 | |
| Myers, RF | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .000 | |
| Brown, G, CF | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .500 | |
| Szczur, CF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | |
| Skaggs, P | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | |
| Peacock, P | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | |
| Miller, S, P | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | |
| Moore, P | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | |
| Thornburg, P | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | |
| Pomeranz, P | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | |
| Gibson, P | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | |
| Cosart, P | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | |
| Turner, P | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | |
| Harvey, M, P | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .000 | |
| Totals | 32 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 11 | .313 |
a-Doubled for Kipnis in the 5th. b-Struck out for Machado in the 5th.
BATTING
2B: Green 2 (2, Perez, M, Herrera), Beckham (1, Herrera), Arenado (1, Herrera).
HR: Kipnis (1, 1st inning off Teheran, 0 on, 0 out).
TB: Kipnis 4; Green 4; Beckham 2; Mesoraco; Romine 2; Middlebrooks; Arenado 2; Brown, G.
RBI: Kipnis (1), Myers (1), Green (1), Beckham (1), Romine (1), Arenado (1).
2-out RBI: Green; Romine; Arenado.
Runners left in scoring position, 2 out: Beckham; Darnell.
GIDP: Middlebrooks; Myers.
Team RISP: 4-for-10.
Team LOB: 4.
BASERUNNING
SB: Brown, G (1, 2nd base off Perez, M/Rosario, W).
FIELDING
Pickoffs: Gibson (Schoop at 1st base).
| World Futures | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | ERA | |
| Teheran | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9.00 | |
| Hendriks | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.00 | |
| Paxton | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Martinez, C | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Perez, M | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9.00 | |
| Alvarez, H (H, 1) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Vizcaino (H, 1) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Herrera (BS, 1)(L, 0-1) | 0.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 40.50 | |
| Marinez | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Totals | 8.0 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 6.75 |
| U.S. Futures | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | ERA | |
| Skaggs | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Peacock (H, 1) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Miller, S (H, 1) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Moore (H, 1) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Thornburg (H, 1) | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Pomeranz (BS, 1) | 0.2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 54.00 | |
| Gibson | 1.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Cosart (W, 1-0) | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Turner (H, 1) | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Harvey, M (S, 1) | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | |
| Totals | 9.0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1 | 4.00 |
Balk: Perez, M.
HBP: Mesoraco (by Martinez, C).
Pitches-strikes: Teheran 19-13, Hendriks 18-10, Paxton 6-4, Martinez, C 11-6, Perez, M 23-11, Alvarez, H 11-6, Vizcaino 6-5, Herrera 23-14, Marinez 11-8, Skaggs 17-11, Peacock 9-7, Miller, S 20-12, Moore 11-9, Thornburg 10-7, Pomeranz 23-14, Gibson 16-11, Cosart 10-8, Turner 9-6, Harvey, M 3-1.
Groundouts-flyouts: Teheran 1-1, Hendriks 2-1, Paxton 2-1, Martinez, C 1-0, Perez, M 1-0, Alvarez, H 2-1, Vizcaino 2-0, Herrera 0-1, Marinez 0-0, Skaggs 1-1, Peacock 1-0, Miller, S 2-0, Moore 2-0, Thornburg 2-1, Pomeranz 0-0, Gibson 0-2, Cosart 0-1, Turner 0-1, Harvey, M 1-0.
Batters faced: Teheran 4, Hendriks 5, Paxton 3, Martinez, C 3, Perez, M 5, Alvarez, H 4, Vizcaino 3, Herrera 6, Marinez 1, Skaggs 5, Peacock 3, Miller, S 5, Moore 3, Thornburg 4, Pomeranz 6, Gibson 5, Cosart 3, Turner 2, Harvey, M 1.
Inherited runners-scored: Marinez 1-0, Gibson 1-1.
Umpires: HP: Ben May. 1B: Will Little. 2B: Jimmy Volpi. 3B: Scott Mahoney.
Weather: 74 degrees, roof closed.
Wind: 1 mph, Varies.
T: 2:38.
***Thank you to Rob Bland for preparing today’s article on the 2011 Home Run Derby and All-Star Futures Game. You can follow Rob on Twitter.***
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2011 MLB Home Run Derby: New Format, Ortiz and Fielder as Captains and Picks
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
MLB reports: Change is in the air as Major League Baseball has revised the format for the Home Run Derby, coming up on Monday, July 11th from Chase Field in Arizona. The biggest change is the appointment of captains. Former home run derby champions David Ortiz and Prince Fielder will serve as the leaders of the AL and NL squads respectively. Each captain is able to select three additional players of their choice to fill out their home run derby team, regardless of being selected as an all-star. The Home Run Derby team selections are due today, but David Ortiz has already jumped the gun to fill out his roster. Papi’s selections are about to be listed, but first the format change for the Home Run Derby this year.
According to Major League Baseball:
“While the format to determine the individual champion will remain unchanged, the total number of home runs hit by all players in all rounds will be tabulated for the AL and NL to determine the winning team, captain and charity recipient. Each player will get 10 outs per round, the four players with the highest total of home runs will advance to the second round, and the two players with the highest cumulative number of home runs in the first two rounds will advance to the Championship Round, where first and second round home runs do not carry over for individual scores.”
Thus the derby now becomes a team effort right up until the final round, where an individual winner will be selected. Thus the 2011 Home Run Derby will have a winning team, as well as an individual champion. With the format of the Home Run Derby becoming somewhat stale and many players declining invitations, change was needed. There was also talk of the “Derby Curse”, where participants in the Home Run Derby would find their home run totals slip in the second half of the season. From Bobby Abreu in 2005 to Josh Hamilton in 2008, the curse has taken on a life of its own. With teams starting to put pressure on its players to avoid the home run contest, the new format is a breath of fresh air. Having the teams and captains brings fun and competitiveness back to the event and should rejuvenate a great brand for Major League Baseball. While this year’s format will likely require future tweaking, in my opinion at least, MLB has done a great job in building excitement to the upcoming derby.
As mentioned, today is the deadline for the team captains to submit their home
run team picks. For the American League, Captain David Ortiz has made his selections. Representing the AL in the 2011 Home Run Derby will be Adrian Gonzalez of the Boston Red Sox, Jose Bautista of the Toronto Blue Jays and Robinson Cano of the New York Yankees. Gonzalez and Bautista were the first two selections by Ortiz that accepted their invitations. Cano teammate, Mark Teixeira, was originally selected as the fourth member of the squad, but declined his invitation. Cano has since happily accepted and will be launching home runs for the AL next Monday.
On the current MLB home run leader board, Bautista sits at #1 with 27 home runs, Ortiz at #11 with 17, Gonzalez at #18 with 16 and Cano at #27 with 14. Ortiz made some interesting choices, as Curtis Granderson, Nelson Cruz and Paul Konerko were not selected despite being in the top 10 home run hitters in the game as of today. I don’t believe that many people would argue with the selections of Bautista or Gonzalez. It is the selection of Cano that would likely have some tongues wagging. Most experts would have preferred Teixeira on the squad, but unfortunately he declined the invitation. Personally, I would have gone with Granderson or Miguel Cabrera for the position. But regardless of preference, the AL squad is a mighty one and should give the AL a strong chance to win this year’s Home Run Derby.
In the National League, Prince Fielder continues to ponder and calculate his
selections, which should be announced later today. Prince, at #6 on the home run leader board with 21, has many candidates to choose from. One selection apparently confirmed is Matt Kemp of the Dodgers, who is #4 with 22 home runs. Other strong candidates are Fielder’s teammates Ryan Braun and Rickie Weeks (with rumors have Weeks likely to receive and accept an invitation). Other possibilities are Lance Berkman and Matt Holliday of the Cardinals, Jay Bruce of the Reds, Troy Tulowitzki of the Rockies and Mike Stanton of the Marlins. If you are handicapping at home, my predicted NL squad is Fielder, Weeks, Holliday and Bruce. We will find out later today if Prince and I are on the same page on this one.
No matter who ends up representing the AL and NL, Ortiz and Fielder will captain exciting and dynamic home run hitting squads that will electrify the Arizona crowd next Monday. I cannot recall a more anticipated Home Run Derby in recent history. Good luck Prince and Papi and don’t forget to eat your wheaties this week.
***Get ready for a week’s worth of All-Star reporting, as MLB reports has everything All-Star covered between now and the big game on Tuesday. We will be keeping an eye on the All-Star game itself, as well as the Futures Game, Home Run Derby and everything in between. The All-Star game is a little over a week away and we will bring you all the latest All-Star game news as it develops. To view the AL and NL All-Star Game rosters and Final Vote candidates, click here***
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2011 MLB ALL-STAR GAME FINAL VOTING RESULTS:
Here are the final numbers as voted by the fans for the starting lineups in the All-Star game:
American League
CATCHER — 1, Alex Avila, Tigers, 4,144,384. 2, Russell Martin, Yankees, 3,646,033. 3, Joe Mauer, Twins, 2,308,436. 4, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Red Sox, 2,183,113. 5, Yorvit Torrealba, Rangers, 1,810,755. 6, Carlos Santana, Indians, 1,501,053. 7, J.P. Arencibia, Blue Jays, 1,024,020. 8, A.J. Pierzynski, White Sox, 963,463.
FIRST BASE — 1, Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox, 6,034,533. 2, Mark Teixeira, Yankees, 4,174,690. 3, Miguel Cabrera, Tigers, 3,473,849. 4, Mitch Moreland, Rangers, 1,680,462. 5, Paul Konerko, White Sox, 1,323,853. 6, Adam Lind, Blue Jays, 860,203. 7, Justin Morneau, Twins, 781,717. 8, Matt LaPorta, Indians, 750,953.
SECOND BASE — 1, Robinson Cano, Yankees, 6,679,976. 2, Dustin Pedroia, Red Sox, 4,391,835. 3, Ian Kinsler, Rangers, 2,729,450. 4, Orlando Cabrera, Indians, 1,538,135. 5, Ben Zobrist, Rays, 1,245,709. 6, Howie Kendrick, Angels, 1,079,227. 7, Will Rhymes, Tigers, 671,674. 8, Aaron Hill, Blue Jays, 587,179.
THIRD BASE — 1, Alex Rodriguez, Yankees, 5,277,823. 2, Adrian Beltre, Rangers, 4,036,191. 3, Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox, 4,018,641. 4, Evan Longoria, Rays, 2,804,004. 5, Brandon Inge, Tigers, 1,113,787. 6, Maicer Izturis, Angels, 666,828. 7, Mike Aviles, Royals, 602,091. 8, Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays, 505,015.
SHORTSTOP — 1, Derek Jeter, Yankees, 4,536,386. 2, Asdrubal Cabrera, Indians, 4,073,992. 3, Elvis Andrus, Rangers, 2,698,902. 4, Jhonny Peralta, Tigers, 2,301,524. 5, Marco Scutaro, Red Sox, 1,642,606. 6, Yunel Escobar, Blue Jays, 1,104,761. 7, J.J. Hardy, Orioles, 956,073. 8, Alexei Ramirez, White Sox, 946,442.
DESIGNATED HITTER — 1, David Ortiz, Red Sox, 6,324,793. 2, Michael Young, Rangers, 3,072,467. 3, Victor Martinez, Tigers, 2,302,988. 4, Jorge Posada, Yankees, 1,998,551. 5, Johnny Damon, Rays, 1,303,471. 6, Travis Hafner, Indians, 1,206,971. 7, Vladimir Guerrero, Orioles, 1,136,364. 8, Billy Butler, Royals, 891,940.
OUTFIELD — 1, Jose Bautista, Blue Jays, 7,454,753. 2, Curtis Granderson, Yankees, 6,683,877. 3, Josh Hamilton, Rangers, 4,646,394. 4, Jacoby Ellsbury, Red Sox, 4,609,667. 5, Carl Crawford, Red Sox, 3,213,581. 6, Nelson Cruz, Rangers, 2,704,249. 7, Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners, 2,528,532. 8, Nick Swisher, Yankees, 2,277,856. 9, Brett Gardner, Yankees, 2,064,372. 10, J.D. Drew, Red Sox, 2,009,877. 11, Matt Joyce, Rays, 1,597,334. 12, Jeff Francoeur, Royals, 1,505,399. 13, David Murphy, Rangers, 1,458,420. 14, Grady Sizemore, Indians, 1,283,993. 15, Austin Jackson, Tigers, 1,254,267. 16, Carlos Quentin, White Sox, 1,218,968. 17, Melky Cabrera, Royals, 1,201,982. 18, Shin-Soo Choo, Indians, 1,158,749. 19, Alex Gordon, Royals, 1,120,683. 20, B.J, Upton, Rays, 1,081,270. 21, Magglio Ordonez, Tigers, 1,008,145. 22, Torii Hunter, Angels, 927,271. 23, Sam Fuld, Rays, 916,219. 24, Michael Brantley, Indians, 878,556.
National League
CATCHER — 1, Brian McCann, Braves, 4,698,838. 2, Yadier Molina, Cardinals, 2,972,786. 3, Buster Posey, Giants, 2,418,923. 4, Jonathan Lucroy, Brewers, 2,271,498. 5, Ramon Hernandez, Reds, 2,056,263. 6, Carlos Ruiz, Phillies, 1,864,675. 7, Ivan Rodriguez, Nationals, 1,225,342. 8, Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks, 1,149,461.
FIRST BASE — 1, Prince Fielder, Brewers, 4,864,523. 2, Joey Votto, Reds, 4,254,305. 3, Albert Pujols, Cardinals, 4,171,094. 4, Ryan Howard, Phillies, 2,563,736. 5, Freddie Freeman, Braves, 957,816. 6, Brandon Belt, Giants, 917,044. 7, Ike Davis, Mets, 824,681. 8, Todd Helton, Rockies, 761,928.
SECOND BASE — 1, Rickie Weeks, Brewers, 4,460,395. 2, Brandon Phillips, Reds, 4,273,079. 3, Chase Utley, Phillies, 3,345,845. 4, Freddy Sanchez, Giants, 1,627,733. 5, Dan Uggla, Braves, 1,583,903. 6, Neil Walker, Pirates, 993,369. 7, Kelly Johnson, Diamondbacks, 862,204. 8, Skip Schumaker, Cardinals, 856,658.
THIRD BASE — 1, Placido Polanco, Phillies, 4,410,701. 2, Chipper Jones, Braves, 2,849,578. 3, Scott Rolen, Reds, 2,251,425. 4, Pablo Sandoval, Giants, 2,213,057. 5, David Wright, Mets, 2,106,800. 6, Casey McGehee, Brewers, 1,877,744. 7, Aramis Ramirez, Cubs, 1,192,220. 8, Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals, 1,137,696.
SHORTSTOP — 1, Jose Reyes, Mets, 4,707,976. 2, Troy Tulowitzki, Rockies, 3,932,000. 3, Jimmy Rollins, Phillies, 2,311,689. 4, Yuniesky Betancourt, Brewers, 1,695,431. 5, Stephen Drew, Diamondbacks, 1,523,919. 6, Alex Gonzalez, Braves, 1,476,368. 7, Miguel Tejada, Giants, 1,265,544. 8, Paul Janish, Reds, 1,168,551.
OUTFIELD — 1, Ryan Braun, Brewers, 5,928,004. 2, Lance Berkman, Cardinals, 4,345,766. 3, Matt Kemp, Dodgers, 4,293,626. 4, Matt Holliday, Cardinals, 3,948,268. 5, Jay Bruce, Reds, 3,218,003. 6, Andre Ethier, Dodgers, 3,013,030. 7, Carlos Beltran, Mets, 2,631,991. 8, Shane Victorino, Phillies, 2,370,351. 9, Corey Hart, Brewers, 1,875,897. 10, Justin Upton, Diamondbacks, 1,845,385. 11, Carlos Gonzalez, Rockies, 1,733,281. 12, Jason Heyward, Braves, 1,715,925. 13, Raul Ibanez, Phillies, 1,641,389. 14, Drew Stubbs, Reds, 1,572,673. 15, Carlos Gomez, Brewers, 1,508,939. 16, Andrew McCutchen, Pirates, 1,343,144. 17, Hunter Pence, Astros, 1,315,276. 18, Jonny Gomes, Reds, 1,310,142. 19, Martin Prado, Braves, 1,296,763. 20, Alfonso Soriano, Cubs, 1,282,608. 21, Aubrey Huff, Giants, 1,240,980. 22, Chris Young, Diamondbacks, 1,151,443. 23, Ben Francisco, Phillies, 1,124,361. 24, Jason Bay, Mets, 1,114,574.
Patient Hitters: The Leaders in Walks
MLB reports: As many of you know from my past articles and tweets, the one quality I look for the most in hitters is patience: the ability to take walks. The art of the base on balls was exemplified somewhat in the “moneyball” Oakland approach and has been adopted by the Red Sox team in particular, among others. People often ask me why I value hitters that take walks so highly. Very simply, walks in my mind lead often to the overall development of every facet of a hitters game. A hitter that has good judgement of the strike zone and take walks should get on base at a high rate. A hitter that takes many walks is more likely to judge better pitches to hit, which should increase their number of hits and home runs correspondingly. When I used to play fantasy baseball, I often looked for batters with high walk totals in filling out my rosters. These hitters would win championships for me, as they do often for baseball teams in real life.
Patient hitters have a high value in baseball, this has become a fact of life. Putting this theory to the test, let’s take a look at which batters sit among the leader board in walks as of today. It will be interesting to see which of these players are considered top players, historically and coming into their own as of today. Has the number of walks taken this year helped each player in other statistical categories? Are each of these players better hitters for having many walks? The results may surprise you.
1st: Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays (19)
Last year 100 walks went hand-in-hand with a league leading 54 home runs. This year, Bautista leads the league with 19 walks and 8 home runs. For a man who hit .260 last year, the high walk has remained while the average has jumped to a league leading .364. Interesting to note, none of Batista’s walks have been intentional. Bautista for me is the poster boy of how patience and power are inter-twined. You almost cannot have one without the other. For anyone that doubts the value of walks, go look up Bautista’s stats again…they will astound you.
T-2nd: Bobby Abreu, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (18)
Bobby Abreu, along with Youkilis, Adam Dunn and Swisher, is a resident in the patience club. With 1,360 career walks, Abreu always brings on-base capabilities for any team he plays for. Long seen as having declining power, Abreu still hit a decent 20 home runs last year. Combined with his 87 walks, Abreu managed a .352 OBP despite a .255 AVG. This year, with a puny one home run and .244 AVG, Abreu is sitting at an unacceptable .329 SLG. But with a .388 OBP, the 37-year-old Abreu still has some value. In his prime, Abreu showed that 100+ walks and a .300+ AVG could lead to 40+ home runs in a season. But Abreu, the elder of the list, only has walks to show for any value left in his tank and is likely dependant on those walks for still receiving any playing time at all. The end is near, but the walks continue.
T-2nd: Joey Votto, Cincinatti Reds (18)
As a rookie, I read that Dusty Baker told Joey Votto that he should becoming more free-swinging and less patient to develop as a hitter. Fortunately for Votto and all Reds fans, the Canadian ignored the advice and continued to grow as a hitter….his way. Last year Votto had 91 walks, which translated to 37 home runs and a league leading .400 OBP and .600 SLG. Hitting .324 along the way, Votto was intentionally walked eight times. Votto fits the bill perfectly- a hitter that picks his spots, waits for the right pitches to hit and avoids the bad ones to get on base. This year, votto has 18 walks to only 11 strike outs. The knock on some patient hitters is that they take too many called third strikes and often hit for low averages. As part of the core of this top list, Votto is able to not only hit many home runs but keep his average steady to high in the process. Many experts see Votto as having surpassed Albert Pujols as the king of the NL. Based on his numbers-to-date, I have a hard time arguing. Votto’s bread and butter has been his eye at the plate. The 2010 MVP and runner-up 2008 ROY can thank his walks for much of his success in baseball.
4th: Jonny Gomes, Cincinatti Reds (17)
The fourth member of our list is the only real head scratcher in the bunch. While all the other listed hitters are known “walkers”, Gomes has basically come out of nowhere to join the group this year. With a career high of 61 walks in 2006 being far and away his highest season total, few people envisioned Jonny Gomes learning true patience at the age of 30. Perhaps spending time with Votto has helped his transition. But then, his .211 AVG would seem to indicate that he might not be fully paying attention in emulating Votto. At a season total of six home runs, Gomes is on pace to set a career high of 35 home runs. But looking at the full numbers, Gomes is the outlier. Hitting in the standard Nick Swisher mold, Gomes has compensated base hits for walks. With his 18 walks has come 23 strikeouts…which shows that he is missing as many pitches as he is taking. It is not a bad thing that Gomes is taking many walks, but unfortunately he is swinging for the fences and striking out at a Rob Deer frequency with too few base hits. Gomes may continue the walks, but without a steadier number of base hits to match, he may not be as productive as one may think.
T-5th: Daric Barton, Oakland Athletics (16)
Seemingly playing forever, the 25-year-old is entering his 5th season in the bigs. With a .368 career OBP and 110 walks last year (leading the AL), Barton is patience personified. The only knock on Barton has been his low batting average and power. 2011 has done nothing to calm those fears, as Barton is hitting .205 with zero home runs. Along with Gomes, Barton is sacrificing base hits for walks, but not seeing the tangible results that should come along with them. Well…at least Gomes is hitting home runs, I really can’t see what value Barton has other than walks. With ten home runs, Barton is slowly becoming another Travis Buck. As Barton continues to keep first base warm for Chris Carter, I am sad to see that his patience at the plate never translated to greater things for him offensively. Judging on his 17/20 BB/K ratio, Barton clearly is either not patient enough or judging the right pitches to hit. Based on this slow start, it appears the one-time A’s prospect has graduated into a full-fledged suspect.
T-5th: Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers (16)
One of my favorite hitters in the game, I always wondered what levels he could reach if he could take more walks. Always known for a solid average and home run bat, the answer to my question started to be answered last year. Cabrera set a career high with 89 walks last year and had correspondingly a career high 38 home runs. This year, with a 17/12 BB/K ratio, Cabrera has already five home runs, to go with his .338 AVG, .458 OBP and .610 SLG. These are really…really…really good numbers. Finishing second last year in MVP, the re-born Cabrera has become everything I could have imagined as a hitter. Together with Bautista in the AL and Joey Votto in NL, we are looking at three of the most complete hitters in the game. Taking many walks, hitting many home runs, hitting for a high average and not striking out a ton. Patience at the plate, waiting for the right pitches to hit and taking advantage of those pitches. Hitting perfection.
T-5th: Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox (16)
No conversation on walks is complete without including the Greek God of Walks himself, Kevin Youkilis. A .292 career hitter with a lifetime .394 OBP and .497 SLG, Youk fit the mold of the perfect hitter as I discussed above. But something has happened to Youk in 2011. Despite his high walks and decent number of home runs (4), his average sits at .222. Considering that Youk has hit .300+ the last three seasons, I do not expect a huge regression at the age of 32. As long as he stays healthy, Youk should be at .290, .390 and 25 home runs. That’s just how steady Youk is. But given his career low average this year, I actually suspect there may be an injury concern. I do not see Youk turning into Jonny Gomes overnight. Everything seems to even out in the long run and over the course of the season, the real Youk should emerge. Walks will always be there, but the rest of the game should follow as well. But even if he remains slumping, as Bobby Abreu and Daric Barton have shown, at least taking walks brings some contribution to the table. But unlike those two, at least Youk can still swing a power stick. Walks truly begin and end with Youk.
Thank you for reading today’s feature on walks and the hitters who take them. While we all have theories on the subject, think of all the best all around hitters of all time and take a look at their walk totals. While there may have been many home run kings with low averages or hit kings with poor power, take a look at the best all around hitters and see how many times they walked. Then tell me what you think about the value of the combination of power and patience and if you now subscribe to this theory. I certainly hope that you do.
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
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