Milwaukee Brewers: Rebuild or Reload?

Jordan (Part-Owner/Organizational Expert): Follow @jgluck777

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The Brewers are off to an awful start this year due to a number of factors but primarily horrendous starting pitching. Their farm system is somewhere from below average to bad and their payroll is over $100Mthis season for a small market team.

So the questions I will ask and answer are why are they so bad? Why have they failed to develop starting pitching? How can they try to fix it.? and How long is it going to take?

First lets look at their roster which when it first meets the eye doesn’t look like a team 10 games under .500 but more like an average team. Yes I under stand that Jonathan Lucroy is injured which is a big factor as he’s a middle of the order bat, handles the pitching staff and is a team leader.

Age
The high Majority of this team is in the prime of their careers (25-32). The ones that aren’t

Aramis Ramirez ba/obp/slg/ops
.245/.277/.453/732

Kyle Lohse 5.85ERA 1.20WHIP

Francisco Rodriguez 1.20ERA .73WHIP

Neil Cotts 6.19 ERA 1.38WHIP

Of those only K Rod is on the books for next year. So while the others have performed poorly they are not drags on the team’s future. They will likely be small trading block chips for the team this year but they won’t bring back any big time future talent.

So what should they do? They have some big time players who would command something real to get salary aside for now in Ryan Braun, Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gomez.

They only have 53 Million on the books for next year. But here is the real problem for this franchise which has been here for years. THEY HAVE FAILED TO DEVELOP PITCHING!!!!!!!!!

They have only developed 2 current effective starting pitchers in recent memory and neither of them are real all-star talents in Wily Peralta and Jimmy Nelson. This failure has forced them to sign Lohse, Matt Garza and in the past trade for Greinke and sign Jeff Suppan.

Looking in the farm system now most of their top prospects are bats including their current top 2 in Orlando Arcia and Clint Coulter. The majority of their top young arms like Devin Williams, Taylor Williams and Kodi Mediaros are at low levels of the farm.

I can see them retooling this trade deadline and this offseason to give them a shot at next year. The problem is it is extremely difficult to acquire top of the rotation arms especially ones that are affordable. The bright side for the Brewers is that they have plenty of space for next year and that this Free Agent class is stocked with pitching.

This trade deadline:

Trade Aramis Ramirez FA after this season and having a somewhat subpar season but has played better as of late. He could be a nice veteran piece for a team looking to make a push. Top 250 prospect.

Try to Trade Adam Lind– Has club option for 2016 (8M) He is having a pretty damn good season and can play 1B or can DH. With the lack of bats I expect a top 100 Prospect and top 200 prospect.

Trade Kyle Lohse- FA after this season and having awful season. Move him for lotto tix prospects and to save $$.

Shop KRod- He is having an outstanding season and is signed through 2016 with a very affordable 5.5M due next season. Can get a top 100 prospect for him.

Do Not Trade Carlos Gomez- He is not anywhere near full value and is signed affordable for the next few seasons. Unless there is an earth shattering offer I would keep him.

Attempt to Trade Matt Garza (August?) – He is having a lackluster season and is signed for 12.5M for the next few years. If he rebounds then I would attempt to trade him but August may seem more likely. He has postseason and World Series experience and can be valuable in the playoffs. If a team claims him in August then give him up.

Trade Broxton in August- FA in 2015 and Having crap season might get out of some money in August.

Trade Gerardo Parra: He is having a good season but is a Free Agent after this season and he will be more expensive than you think because of his defense.

Offseason: Assuming all goes as planned they will have about 45-50M committed including arbitration

Explore trading Jean Segura– With the emergence of of Orlando Arcia, the trade for Luis Sardinas and Scooter Gennett in the fold for 2 Middle Infield spots Segura can be moved. Segura is having a decent season and plays a premium position. I would try to shop him for other needs such as bullpen, starting pitching, or Corner Infield.

SIGN STARTING PITCHING- I think this can be explained pretty easily. They need top of the rotation arms and depth but there is plenty available. Definitely a good year to try to buy starting pitching.

Need at least 1 Corner Infielder I would spend money on one and buy or trade for a high upside tripe for the other. Chris Davis, John Jaso, Morneau, and Napoli are available this offseason at 1st. Not much available at 3B in David Freese and Aramis Ramirez.

Sign a Set Up man Someone like Tyler Clippard might make sense. Should cost around 5-7M a season.

So their team would look something along these lines

Carlos Gomez CF
Orlando Arcia SS
Ryan Braun LF
Jonathan Lucroy C
Chris Davis 1B
Khris Davis RF
Aramis Ramirez 3B
Scooter Gennett/Luis Sardinas 2B
Pitcher

The lineup seems pretty good with the only real long term need at 3B. They have some speed guys and many guys with power who historically play very well at Miller Park.

Pitching is a little more questionable

Mystery #1 SP (Jordan Zimmerman)
Wily Peralta 2SP
Jimmy Nelson 3SP
Alfredo Simon 4SP
Mike Fiers 5SP

That seems like a below average to average rotation. If they have a cindarella type season I can see them being successful next year but they are building to get back again. They aren’t desperate enough to tear it all down and restart. The key for the Brewers will be to develop starting pitching from the inside which they have generally failed at and to be more successful in the draft.

A big thanks goes out to our ‘Part-Owner and lead organizational expert’ Jordan Gluck for today’s featured post.

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