Tuesday August 28th, 2012

Jake Dal Porto: Josh Beckett, or more formerly known as the most hated man in Boston, won’t nearly have as much pressure on him with the Dodgers. That will be a vastly different change for him considering the hefty amount of heat he took in Boston. Granted, the criticism was for the most part deserved, but the Dodgers and their fans don’t view Beckett as the main piece in a deal that also landed them Adrian Gonzalez, Nick Punto, and Carl Crawford. They view him as a bonus piece. If he rejuvenates himself in Los Angeles, great. If he doesn’t, the pressure from the organization won’t be as substantial. On the other side of the coin, it won’t go unnoticed, nor will his large contract.

However, it’s assuming too much to say that he’s going to struggle with his new team. Sure, his 5.21 ERA isn’t great, but he’s moving to one of the most pitcher’s friendly ballparks in Dodger Stadium. To be specific, it’s the eighth best pitcher’s park in the majors per ESPN Park Factors. What should be noted is the fact that Chris Capuano and Clayton Kershaw both boast elite home ERAs. While the success isn’t entirely due to the fact that Dodger stadium is spacious, it’s a piece of the pie. In comparison, Fenway Park is the third best hitters park in baseball. So the difference is substantial. In spite of the difference, his first start in a Dodgers uniform came in the worst pitcher’s ballpark in the majors, Coors Field. He wasn’t great, but he wasn’t terrible, surrendering three runs over 5 2/3 innings.

Dodger Stadium alone isn’t going to transform Beckett into an ace, though. It’s not that pitcher friendly. Beckett will have to make some tweaks to get back to “ace” form.

OK, so his fastball doesn’t have as much pop on it as it once did. Not only does it check in at a career low (91 MPH average), but opposing batters are hitting .323 off of the pitch, another career worst mark. However, he’s throwing the heater just 47% of the time, meaning that the inflated average is partly due to a much smaller sample size. Opposing batters are also finding success against Beckett’s change-up, which he’s throwing substantially more this season due to the lack of effectiveness of his fastball.

The point is that Beckett is not throwing his curveball enough (17%). The sharp breaking ball has always been an effective pitch for the former World Series champion. Lifetime, opposing batters are hitting just .187 off it, and this year, they’re hitting just .179. With all of that said, Beckett tends to defer to his cutter which he’s throwing at an all-time high (21%), and his change-up which has yet to be effective.

Dodger Stadium is a fly ball park, yielding very few cheap home runs. That would play in Beckett’s favor should he utilize his curveball more. Plus, the majority of the National League hasn’t seen his array of breaking pitches, giving him a slight advantage in his first trip around the league. Yes, he pitched in the N.L where he first began his career, but it’s been nearly a decade since he made the switch to the A.L. In retrospect, Fenway Park is prone to giving up cheap long balls, especially to right-handed hitters. Lefties are a different story, however, as it takes a pretty good poke to shoot one over the short wall.

One way or another, Beckett is going to find a way to impact the Dodgers. I’m not ruling out the possibility of his impact being negative, either. However, it should be positive, or a modest upgrade at the minimum, seeing that Chad Billingsley is hurt, and Aaron Harang is sub-par at best. In short, at the very least Beckett should stabilize the fourth spot in the rotation even if he isn’t dominant.

The thing about the Dodgers, is that money is seemingly no object to them. At least it doesn’t appear to be. But I’ll let you be the judge— they took on a quarter of a million in contracts and are pursuing a starting pitcher to complement Kershaw. How does this relate to Beckett? It does simply because his contract isn’t cheap. He’s in line to make over $30 million over the next two seasons, and thus far, his performance won’t match the contract.

Do the Dodgers care?

No. Beckett’s contract is practically nothing to them. To put things into perspective, his contract won’t affect them either way. If he dominates, it’s gravy. If he remains neutral, nothing won, nothing loss. For some teams, this isn’t the case. Say the Tampa Bay Rays for example. If they took on a Beckett type contract and received nothing in return, it would be a major problem since money is limited for them. That’s where the Dodgers have the upper-hand.

While everyone in the state of Massachusetts wants to see Beckett fall face first, he might be a valuable asset to the Dodgers in the stretch run. Remember: come October…anything can happen.

(*The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com*)

Jake Dal Porto is a student from the Bay Area. He is a big time Giants fan and his favorite players are Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Buster Posey, and Sergio Romo. Jake’s favorite sports moment was when the Giants won the World Series back in 2010. He loves to use sabermetrics in his work. He thinks they are the best way to show a player’s real success compared to the basic stats such as ERA, RBIs, and Wins. Jake also enjoys interacting and debating with his readers. Follow him on Twitter:  @TheJakeMan24

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