Monday August 27th, 2012

Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst): Follow @PeterWStein

The blockbuster trade between the Red Sox and Dodgers certainly shifted the balance of power in the NL West and marked the end of a tumultuous season in Boston. With such an unprecedented type of deal, fantasy owners, in late August nonetheless, were greatly impacted by this waiver wire trade. I, for one, lost Carl Crawford, Jose Bautista, and Adrian Gonzalez in my AL only league in the matter of a week. My first place lead will soon slip from my grasp, as I am left without any opportunity or options to improve my team this late in the game.

With the waiver wire deals we have seen over the last few years, it no longer makes sense to lineup a fantasy trade deadline with the non-waiver deadline of July 31. In reality this blockbuster only truly impacts AL and NL only leagues, but each of the players traded to the Dodgers should have a boost in value down the stretch when owners most need it.

Needless to say, Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett finally have something to play for and have the benefit of a fresh start. Crawford, not knowing he would soon be traded to a contender, may have thought twice about electing for season ending surgery had he been able to predict the future. Still, despite his productive play while injured, the surgery was necessary and it sets him up for a more successful 2013 campaign.

Let’s take a look at each of these players’ values- not only for this season, but moving forward as well:

Adrian Gonzalez’s career numbers at his new home, Dodger Stadium, are extremely underwhelming: .218/6/25 in 47 games. Before looking too much into this quarter of a season sample size, remember that Gonzalez is returning home to the NL West where he dominated for five seasons. The concern with Gonzalez was his fading power, as he posted an .812 OPS to date in 2012, below the .900+ mark we have grown accustomed to in past years. The lack of power can mostly be attributed to a shoulder injury that bothered Gonzalez during the second half of the 2011 season and into the beginning of 2012. This explains the pedestrian 17 home runs he hit combined from 2011 post All-Star to 2012 pre All-Star. However, post All-Star in 2012, Gonzalez returned to form: hitting .338/10/45 in just 154 at-bats. Thus, it appears that concerns of injury or diminished skills can be put to rest. Although, Gonzalez is on the wrong side of 30, no reason to expect a substantial decline due to age in the next few years, but certainly at the end of the contract.

Now, back to Gonzalez’s prior struggles at Dodger Stadium. He certainly excited fans when he launched a home run in his first at-bat at Dodger Stadium as a member of the Dodgers. As much as the park is considered pitcher friendly, it is much more favorable for left-handed hitters than right handers. Furthermore, the park does not suck away power to the same extent as Petco, Gonzalez’s old home in the NL West, where he still managed to slug 40 home runs in 2009. My final pro-Gonzalez case, in the wake of his prior struggles at Dodger Stadium, is his new-found protection in the lineup. Hitting between Matt Kemp and Hanley Ramirez, Gonzalez will see lots of pitches to hit and have many opportunities to drive in runs. The pitching in the NL West is certainly inferior to the AL East, and thus Gonzalez should thrive and return to elite status that escaped him after his periods of struggles in Boston.

Josh Beckett needed a change of scenery more than anyone in the league. He became a bad guy in the eyes of the Boston fan base and was in the midst of a horrendous season: pitching to a 5-11 record with 5.23 ERA in 21 games played. The drop in velocity and diminishing strikeout rate, 6.64 k/9 (career 8.35), led many in Boston to label the Beckett as “washed-up.”  The good news is that it can’t get worse for Beckett, and there are many reasons for optimism. For one, he is only one season removed from an elite campaign, with a 13-7 record, a 2.89 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 2011. Furthermore, despite the lack of ability to miss bats at his career pace, Beckett’s FIP of 4.27 indicates he has not pitched as poorly as his ERA indicates. A 65% LOB rate has certainly not helped things either.

Although he is on the wrong side of 30, Beckett has done this before, as his 2010 campaign looked like this: a 6-6 record with 5.78 ERA in 21 games started. However, he was striking out batters at an impressive 8.18 k/9 clip and was hurt by an inflated BABIP. All of this leads me to conclude that Beckett no longer has ace potential, unless there is an unexpected increase in velocity (ala Javier Vazquez in 2011), but he still remains an above average fantasy starter when you consider his new surroundings. As mentioned earlier, Dodgers Park is a very pitcher friendly park and the competition is far inferior to the heavy hitting teams of the AL East. Expect Beckett to perform well down the stretch, and although not quite a must start, is worth starting based on most match-ups. Moving forward, the finish to the 2012 season will tell a lot about Beckett’s value moving forward into future seasons, but he certainly has potential to be a strong buy-low candidate in 2013.

Carl Crawford is sort of the forgotten man in this deal for the time being. Although I would never want to pick up his contract if I were a GM, I still think he has some good seasons left in him. Even in 2012 playing injured, Crawford put up numbers in 31 games that in a full season (155 games) would be right on his career mark: .282/10/85 and 25 stolen bases. He will certainly never steal 50 plus bags at already 31 years of age, but he gets a fresh start in Los Angeles in 2013 and should return when he is finally fully healthy. Recovering from Tommy John surgery is a lot different for a position player, compared to a pitcher, and therefore I would not be surprised to see Crawford ready for the start of the season and with something to prove.

Hitting atop of this now potent Dodgers lineup, Crawford could find himself atop of the leader board for runs scored. Furthermore, Crawford’s game does not rely on power, so Dodger Stadium should not hinder his offensive performance and he will likely benefit from the lower level of pitching talent in the NL West. Crawford obviously has no value this season, but is a great buy low candidate for 2013. His success going forward, especially as he gets to the later years of the contract, does remain in question each year that he celebrates another birthday in August.

Coming back to the Red Sox, the only player with future fantasy value is Rubby De La Rosa, who underwent Tommy John surgery during the 2011 season. With a fastball that can reach 100 mph, he has top of the rotation type potential, but his frame and delivery cause many concerns for his durability. Although the same was said about Chris Sale. He is still a work in progress and should begin 2013 in AA, but I would not be surprised to ultimately see De La Rosa in the bullpen, but with potential to be a lights out ninth inning man.

Allen Webster also has potential to crack the Red Sox rotation down the road. He is 22 years of age, with a mid-90’s fastball. Pitching in AA for the Dodgers in 2012, the 8.65 k/9 was an encouraging sign of future success, but the needs to cut down on the walks (4.22 B/9).

Jerry Sands was a former top prospect, but now at 25 years of age has seen his ceiling fall tremendously. Sands will have to wait to join the Red Sox organization next season since he didn’t clear waivers, but he will probably be given a chance to fight for a starting job in 2013. His 2012 AAA numbers were impressive .300/25/103 in 111 games, but he has not looked good at all in the 70 games he played with the Dodgers over the last two seasons. He couldn’t certainly make for a productive starting outfielder, but could also wind up as fourth outfielder/utility type of player.

James Loney (.254/.300/.342), a former fantasy-relevant name, certainly wont be in the Red Sox future plans. This is a guy who used to be the Billy Butler of the NL, good average and decent run producing ability, but power that looked like would eventually develop. It has not, and he has seemingly regressed each season and will most likely serve as a backup somewhere in 2013. Things could be lonely for Loney if he doesn’t muster some sort of production down the stretch with the Red Sox to end the season.

(*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com ***)

***Today’s feature was prepared by our Fantasy Baseball Analyst, Peter Stein.  We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers.  You can also follow Peter on Twitter (@peterWstein)***

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