Saturday August 18th, 2012

Jake Dal Porto:  Dustin Ackley has a lot to live up to with the Seattle Mariners. Anyone who is selected in the top five of any draft in any sport is expected to perform right from the get-go. The Mariners highly touted prospect was selected second in the 2009 draft, right behind Stephen Strasburg, and in the same draft class as the American League MVP frontrunner Mike Trout. Granted, Ackley barely has a year of experience under his belt, but it’s safe to say that the bar is set extremely high for him. And thus far, he’s crawling under that bar.

Last season, Ackley, 24, bursted onto the scene in mid June. Of course, the Mariners were far out of contention at that point, but he brought a much-needed spark to the lineup. He was one of the few reasons that made Mariners’ fans look forward to the future of Seattle. And he still his.

However, he has hit a massive dry spell. After hitting .305/.366/.534 is his first 36 big league games last year, he went on a downhill slide that has continued into his second year in the majors. To be specific, the tumble began on the 1st of August in 2011. From that point, he would hit for a triple slash of just .252/.338/.342 for the remainder of the season. And 2012 has followed a similar script. For the season, he’s hitting .225/.296/.330 in 113 games. Thus far, his best month was May, although the numbers he posted were nothing to write home about (.255/.333/.402). Simply, he’s yet to find success for a consistent period of time. Sure, he gets a few hits here and there, then he hits a dry patch.

So what’s going on with Ackley?

In the beginning, every rookie possess a glaring flaw. At first, the flaw might go undiscovered for weeks since there’s generally sparse scouting reports on that particular player. That’s essentially how some rookies thrive during their first few games in the majors. Generally, the thriving gets put to rest after a few days. And in today’s technology filled world, instant rookie success lasts even shorter. Unless, of course, you’re Mike Trout. However, Ackley is no Mike Trout. He did, however, find immediate success to jumpstart his career, hitting a home run in his second game en route to .300/.378/.575 batting line in his first 12 games.

Then, his flaws were discovered and documented.

Ackley’s main deficiency is hitting sliders. He owns a batting average of just .196 off them during his young career, and the word is spreading rather quickly that he can’t hit that pitch. Obviously, the scouting and technology that’s available to teams these days makes it tougher for players to conceal any weaknesses, and Ackley is experiencing just that as every loophole in his flawed swing is taking center stage. The good hitters, though, adjust. Ackley has yet to do just that, which will prolong this lengthy slump.

On a positive note, other off-speed pitches don’t daunt him. He has a sparkly .457 batting average against change ups, and a .355 batting average against curveballs during his career. Obviously, those two pitchers are rarely thrown his way because of the success he’s found against them. To put things into perspective, he’s seen those two pitches about 19 percent of the time combined this year.

Sliders aren’t the only nugget causing Ackley sub-par stats. Believe it or not, bad luck has played a role in his struggles. Yes, bad luck is tough to determine with stats, however, Ackley’s BABIP sits at .270. The league average falls in the range of .290 and .310. Anything higher than .310 means calls for regression, while anything lower than .290 means that the player is enduring bad luck. Ackley’s 2012 BABIP distinctly falls under the latter category, sitting 20 points below the league average. For comparison, his BABIP in 2011 checked in at .339. So clearly, he has regressed and a turnaround should be on the horizon because everything seems to be in check.

His live drive rate sits at 20 percent, just a tick below his career average (21.2%) and his fly ball rate is at 35 percent. The only tidbit that’s taken a slightly dramatic swing, is his ground ball rate (44% in 2012 compared to 39% in 2011). Nothing seems to be out of line to the point where we can pin-point anything specific, though. Simply, bad luck has dampened his stats a tad bit.

The one facet of Ackley’s game that can be pin-pointed clearly, is his stellar defense. Although it often gets overshadowed because of his poor offensive stats draw all of the attention, his defense makes him a complete player. His UZR/150 checks in at 11.8—the best mark in the A.L, and the second best mark in all of baseball behind Darwin Barney. His range is about average, but his arm is exceptional for a second baseman.

The Mariners, who in all likelihood won’t be contending in the A.L. West for at least a couple of more years, want to have Ackley ready for when that time comes. They want him to be the guy that sets the table. Sure, they are concerned that he has taken a few steps back here in 2012, but their main priority is to have him ready to be a cornerstone pice within the next couple of years.

Eventually, he will make his mark as one of the best second baseman in baseball. That time just hasn’t rolled around yet. Remember, Ackley is still very young and has room to grow and mature as a player. But he does, Mariners’ fans are in for a never-ending treat.

(*The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com*)

Jake Dal Porto is a high school student from the Bay Area. He is a big time Giants fan and his favorite players are Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Buster Posey, and Sergio Romo. Jake’s favorite sports moment was when the Giants won the World Series back in 2010. He loves to use sabermetrics in his work. He thinks they are the best way to show a player’s real success compared to the basic stats such as ERA, RBIs, and Wins. Jake also enjoys interacting and debating with his readers. Follow him on Twitter:@TheJakeMan24

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