Sunday August 12th, 2012

Jake Dal Porto:  The American League Central division is shaping out to be one of the tightest races in baseball. It was the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians battling for the top spot during the first few months. Now, the favorited Detroit Tigers have climbed their way back into the thick of things while the Indians have faded. This is far from how several people predicted this race to play out, though. Preseason predictions had the Tigers penciled in to win the Central by double-digit games. I’m talking about 15-20 games.

While that’s still somewhat possible barring a late season collapse by the White Sox, Chicago is for real. Bolstering their pitching staff at the deadline with Brett Myers and Francisco Liriano, and adding a bat in Kevin Youkilis, the Windy City boys have yet to show signs of fatigue. The Tigers didn’t stand pat at the deadline, either. In fact, they might’ve made one of the best deals at the deadline, of course, only to be outshone by the bigger moves involving the bigger names. They sent top pitching prospect Jacob Turner to the Marlins in exchange for Omar Infante and Anibal Sanchez. Infante remains under control through next season, while Sanchez is strictly a rental player for the time being. The point is, both clubs made moves to help them win now.

However, both of these ball clubs have struggled in the pitching aspect. Of course, both squads have a couple of solid starters. Chris Sale and Jake Peavy fall under that category for the Sox, and Justin Verlander obviously falls under that category for the Tigers. Though past the front liners, both teams have struggled to find consistency, when it’s all said and done. In the starting pitching department, they remain just a tick apart (Sox 4.13 VS Tigers 4.14).

Despite the similar numbers, the Tigers own the better starting rotation. That is IF all five starters live up to their potential. Max Scherzer has ace like stuff, but he’s yet to put his tools together. Seemingly every good outing is followed by a start where he surrenders eight plus runs. That’s not a formula for success, especially in the playoffs. The flame-thrower has a 4.65 ERA, but a much better FIP of 3.80. Either way, he is still tagged as a liability. Rick Porcello fits the same bill. A boatload of upside, but he’s yet to put it all together. Anibal Sanchez and Doug Fister are the dark horses to go off and win a string of games. Fister did it last year, and Sanchez can do the same this season—that’s practically why the Tigers acquired him. On paper, though, Detroit’s starting rotation should absolutely blow the Chicago’s out of the water in the next couple of months.

Chris Sale has been Chicago’s ace, totaling a 14-3 record with a 2.60 ERA this season. But the 23 year-old southpaw is Chicago’s prized arm. By no means are they going to tire him out just so they can possibly slip into the playoffs. It may sound silly, but Sale will be leading the Sox for many years to come. In fact, he’s already been given extended rest between starts, and depending on his arm, he will continue to receive extra rest. This will put the Sox down an ace. Unfortunately for the ChiSox, there have been no signs of someone else stepping up. Philip Humber has struggled since his perfect game, John Danks is out after shoulder surgery, and Gavin Floyd has struggled too. All four looking at the numbers own ERA’s above four, and none of them having a winning win-loss record. Thus much of the hopes will rest on the arms of rookie Jose Quintana and recently acquired Francisco Liriano. The White Sox hope that Liriano reclaim his prior magic and like Sale, that Quintana can hold up in October. Too many if’s if you ask me.

Pitching remains the x-factor in this Central playoff chase between the Tigers and White Sox. The winner of this two-team race will ultimately have the best pitching down the stretch. The offense is definitely there for both teams. Chicago has a flurry of hitters, mostly veterans, that are in the midst of career seasons. Alex Rios and A.J. Pierzynzki to name a pair. Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder can arguably be named the best one-two punch in baseball. Meanwhile, Detroit’s Austin Jackson has emerged from a strikeout machine, to a legitimate MVP candidate. Alejandro De Aza fills the same type of role as Jackson. Let’s just say that hitting won’t determine the finish of the Central, as both offenses are fairly evenly matched.

Personally, I predict that Detroit will win the division. Their starting pitching will carry them right into the postseason, with the Sox’ pitching experiencing a September collapse. And there is no better time to have Cabrera and Prince on your team than right now.

(*The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com*)

Jake Dal Porto is a high school student from the Bay Area. He is a big time Giants fan and his favorite players are Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Buster Posey, and Sergio Romo. Jake’s favorite sports moment was when the Giants won the World Series back in 2010. He loves to use sabermetrics in his work. He thinks they are the best way to show a player’s real success compared to the basic stats such as ERA, RBIs, and Wins. Jake also enjoys interacting and debating with his readers. Follow him on Twitter:@TheJakeMan24

Please e-mail us at: mlbreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan onFacebook. To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.