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Thursday August 9th, 2012

Bernie Olshansky:The rest of the Nationals’ season rides on the talented right arm of Stephen Strasburg. The Nationals have a very strong staff with Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, and Edwin Jackson as the core. One could make a case for Zimmermann, Gonzalez, or Strasburg as the ace, as each of them carries a sub-3.40 ERA. Zimmermann has a 2.45, Strasburg has a 2.97, and Gonzalez has a 3.32 ERA. Pitching is undoubtedly the Nationals’ strongpoint. But, if Washington was to abide by the innings limit they set for Strasburg, their playoff hopes could be in jeopardy.

At the beginning of the season, the Nationals came out and said that Strasburg would only throw 160 innings before being shut down due to his having Tommy John surgery last year. As of Wednesday, he has thrown 127.1. In his 22 starts this year, he averages about 5 2/3 innings a start. With the 32 2/3 innings that he has left, he would only be able to make five to six more starts. The Nationals have played 110 games thus far, so that leaves them with 52 to go. He is set to pitch Friday, so if he were to go every fifth day and pitch his average of 5 2/3 innings each time, his limit would be reached by the beginning of September. The good news is if the Nationals decide to abide by this limit, they have a few options available to them.

Washington is up four games in the N.L. East, so to preserve the lead, they could keep Strasburg in the rotation without skipping any starts. The Nationals would most likely stay in first, but would need to find someone to replace Strasburg at the beginning of September. Another option would be to skip some of his starts. If he’s scheduled to face a struggling team under .500, the Nationals could skip his turn. A third option would be to take him out of games early if the Nationals take an early lead. This would allow him to go out every turn. The bullpen would then deal with preserving the lead. Another, more logical option is to lengthen the innings limit. There were talks that the Nats would revise the limit to 180 innings. This would allow Strasburg another four more starts and get him to the end of September. One problem with this option: the playoffs. Yes, the Nats could stretch time in between his starts, take him out early, etc. But once the playoffs began, Strasburg wouldn’t be a factor. This would be an awful scenario.

Yet another option the Nationals could consider is to simply ask Strasburg how he’s feeling. If he says that he isn’t tired, he can go ahead and pitch. Doctors would also weigh in on the potential risks. I think this is the best option. While no pitcher ever wants to remove himself from a game, relying on the pitcher and doctors should produce the best result. Removing Strasburg from the rotation would be detrimental not just for this year, but perhaps for years to come. Making the playoffs is never a sure-thing, so once a team has a shot, they should do everything they can to take it. When the Nationals set this limit at the beginning of the season, they weren’t thinking about success immediately. A few things ended up falling into place and the team is in first place, looking right at a playoff spot. Washington should do away with Strasburg’s limit and let him pitch into the playoffs. If necessary, they can take him out earlier in non-close games, but let him pitch as usual for the most part. If this supposed innings limit were to be used and Strasburg couldn’t pitch, the Nationals might want to think about using him as a pinch hitter. He’s batting .343 in 41 plate appearances–a sure Silver Slugger winner.

If Washington shuts Strasburg down at the beginning of September, they will have one less pitcher that they could rely on for an important game. Without four starts from Strasburg, the team could easily lose their four game lead—maybe even more—and possibly lose even a wild card berth as well. With the position that they are in now, the Nationals should easily make the playoffs. Deciding to shut Strasburg down could affect the fan base; the fans could possibly turn against the management and lose some of the so called “Natitude.” I doubt fans would turn on such a young and exciting team, but missing the playoffs could take off some of its luster.

With Strasburg, I expect big things out of the Nationals in October. He could help this young team win its first World Series. There is no doubt that the Nationals will see the playoffs a lot in the next decade, but why not go for it all right now? You never know who will perform and who won’t in the future. So the Nats might as well take advantage of what they have in the present. Ask teams like the Cubs, Rangers, Mariners, etc. Winning a World Series sometimes happens only once in a lifetime, if you are lucky. When opportunity stares at you in the face, you have to go for it today. Otherwise, lifetimes of regret could follow.

(*The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com*)

***Today’s feature was prepared by Bernie Olshansky, Baseball Writer & Facebook Administrator.  We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers.  You can also follow Bernie on Twitter (@BernieOlshansky)***

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