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Monday August 6th, 2012

Bernie Olshansky: Diamondbacks fans spoke out about our last piece on the Dodgers and Giants, so here’s one devoted just to the Dbacks. After last year’s run when they dethroned the world champion Giants, Arizona was poised for something similar this season. In the offseason, they acquired Trevor Cahill from the A’s. He provided some extra depth in the already-strong pitching staff that included Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, and Joe Saunders. With Cahill, Justin Upton, Chris Young, Aaron Hill, and offseason signing Jason Kubel, the Diamondbacks were ready to defend their NL West title.

Arizona however, started off a bit slow. Daniel Hudson needed Tommy John Surgery and Stephen Drew wasn’t quite ready to come off the DL. Catcher Miguel Montero went into a slump and Chris Young—after a hot start—was headed to the DL. While all of this was happening, the Dodgers were absolutely on fire. Matt Kemp was already on the fast track to winning MVP, and the team was in first place by a nice margin. The Giants were doing well too. With no competition from the Padres, the D-Backs were in third place. As the season went along, Matt Kemp was sidelined by a hamstring injury and the Dodgers faltered. The Giants kept pace and ended up passing the Dodgers to take first place. Meanwhile, the D-Backs rebounded and stayed in contention. At the All Star Break, the Dodgers led the West by half a game over the Giants and by four games over Arizona. The standings haven’t changed drastically over time, as now the Giants lead by half a game over the Dodgers and by three over the Diamondbacks.

The Diamondbacks were never out of contention, it’s just the fact that they didn’t make any moves at the trade deadline that kept them out of the discussion. The Giants went out and got Hunter Pence and the Dodgers made a series of trades that gave them Hanley Ramirez, Brandon League, Shane Victorino, and Joe Blanton. Each team got exponentially better while the Diamondbacks stayed the same. Still, the D-backs are a great team. Even without Daniel Hudson, the highest ERA of the pitching staff is Ian Kennedy’s 4.15. Rookie Wade Miley has seemed to have come out of nowhere, throwing 132 innings so far this year and posting a great 2.98 ERA. The core starters (Kennedy, Saunders, Cahill, Miley) have gone a collective 36-30.

This great pitching staff has been supported by an offense that has only two regulars hitting under .250 (Chris Young at .215 and Stephen Drew at .198). Right fielder Justin Upton has been a disappointment this year hitting only .272 with nine homers and 45 RBI. This would be a decent season for most, but fans had high expectations for Upton this year. Paul Goldschmidt has been good for the D-Backs this year, hitting .302 with 15 homers and 54 RBI. Jason Kubel has been the signing of the year, hitting .287 with 23 homers and 73 RBI. These are the numbers one would expect to see Justin Upton put up. Aaron Hill has hit for the cycle twice this year, while posting nice overall numbers (.299 with 13 homers and 47 RBIs).

With all this production, the Diamondbacks should stay near the top of the standings for the rest of the year, but will they make it to the very top? I’m not convinced. We’ve only had small sample sizes from Hanley Ramirez, Shane Victorino, and Hunter Pence, so we don’t know exactly what their contributions will be for their new club. But I think they will make a large difference. Pence replaces Nate Schierholtz, who didn’t produce the way the Giants would’ve liked this year, and Ramirez replaces Dee Gordon, who hit .225 with absolutely no power. His only tool was speed, which is pretty easy to replace. Once each player finds his niche with their new team, big things will happen. The Dodgers will get even more run production with Ramirez hitting behind Kemp and Ethier (and Victorino leading off), and the Giants will get enough run production to support their pitching staff. Plus, the Giants haven’t been playing to their potential for the majority of this year. Ace Tim Lincecum has had rough outing after rough outing, going 5-11 with a 5.62 ERA. Once he starts pitching well again, the Giants should give both the Dodgers and D-Backs a hard time. As far as wild card chances go, the D-Backs sit 6.5 games back.

I’m not saying the Diamondbacks will have no chance, I just think it’s going to be a lot tougher than last year. This year, the Giants have Buster Posey back, along with Hunter Pence (this year’s Carlos Beltran). Plus this year’s Dodgers team isn’t comparable to last year’s squad. If Arizona wants to play in October, Justin Upton will have to step up and start hitting. He’s the key to getting the Diamondbacks to the playoffs.

***Today’s feature was prepared by Bernie Olshansky, Baseball Writer & Facebook Administrator.  We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers.  You can also follow Bernie on Twitter (@BernieOlshansky)***

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