Daily Archives: September 17, 2011
Yu Darvish – 2012 MLB Savior?
Saturday September 17, 2011
Rob Bland (Baseball Writer – MLB reports): This offseason, there could be only two elite pitchers available for teams to bid on. While C.J. Wilson looks to sign a deal close to $100M, CC Sabathia may be looking at opting out of his current contract with the Yankees. Before the 2009 season, Sabathia signed a 7 year, $161M contract in which he makes $23M annually from 2010-2015. Add in the fact that there will be at least five teams fighting for the services of two pitchers, an alternative must be found.
Yu Darvish, a Japanese right-handed pitcher could be the answer. Although it has not been confirmed that Darvish will even make the trek to North America to play in the MLB, teams are lining up to watch him pitch. Darvish’s ERA in the Japanese Pacific League for the Nippon Ham Fighters sits at 1.47. He also has 223 strikeouts. His 4-seam fastball sits in the 91-94 mph range with a great 2-seamer (or shuuto) with a lot of movement at 89-91 mph. He has a slurve, as well as a split-finger, which seems to be his choice for an out pitch.
Many teams will be interested in Darvish, but how many really have the financial ability to bid for him in the posting process. The process is basically a silent auction, with all teams that are interested putting a bid in, and the highest bid wins. The winning team then has 30 days to agree to a contract with the player. If an agreement is not reached, the posting fee is then returned back to the MLB team.
A player of Darvish’s magnitude rarely comes up in the posting process, so estimating a potential price is difficult. Really, the only compar
ison is Daisuke Matsuzaka. In 2006, the Boston Red Sox bid of $51,111,111 earned the rights to negotiate with the right-handed pitcher. Matsuzaka then agreed to a 6 year, $52M contract, that could be worth as much as $60M with incentives. Matsuzaka has been dominant at times, as witnessed by his 2008 season, where he went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA. He was 4th in Cy Young Award voting after keeping hitters to a .211 average. He has also been below average, as this year, before going on the disabled list, he walked 5.5 batters per 9 innings.
There are very few teams with the financial flexibility to pull off such a move, while the other teams will pass Darvish up.
New York Yankees
With a payroll over $200M annually, the Yankees can always be in on any free agent, especially a high profile one. Behind CC Sabathia, who may opt out of his current contract, the Yankees have a lot of question marks in the rotation. Ivan Nova has had a solid season, but AJ Burnett and Phil Hughes had extremely disappointing campaigns. If the Yankees want to continue their success in the AL East, Darvish may be the key.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox, like the Yankees, have a lot of question marks in the rotation. Behind Jon Lester, Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz, who were extremely solid this year, the rotation has been a mess. Matsuzaka struggled, Lackey has been pretty bad, and Tim Wakefield is nearing the end of his career. They don’t NEED Darvish like the Yankees do.
Toronto Blue Jays
General Manager Alex Anthopoulos has recently said that he was in Japan scouting Darvish. The Blue Jays also have question marks beyond ace Ricky Romero. Brandon Morrow, Kyle Drabek and Brett Cecil underperformed this year, while 21 year old Henderson Alvarez has really impressed in the second half. The Blue Jays have stated they could take on a payroll of $140-150M when the team is ready to contend.
Texas Rangers
GM Jon Daniels was in Japan in the summer to watch Darvish pitch, and could be a frontrunner for his services. With CJ Wilson ready to hit the free agent market, the Rangers will have a lot of quality innings to replace. Derek Holland is developing into a solid starter, to go along with Colby Lewis and Alexi Ogando.
LA Dodgers
If the Dodgers ownership issues ever get solved, with the young core of players they have, they could put in a very serious bid. With the franchise struggling, and Hiroki Kuroda’s $12M coming off the books, expect the Dodgers to be aggressive this offseason if a new owner is put in place. One of the most storied franchises in baseball could get a huge boost in having Darvish come to town. Clayton Kershaw and Darvish could create a very formidable duo on the mound.
While other teams such as the Washington Nationals, Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox and Seattle Mariners have shown interest, I feel as though these five teams are the best possible fit. They have the money, and they have the willingness to shell it out to the right player.
I believe a posting fee near $65,000,000 will gain the negotiating rights to Yu Darvish. While the Yankees and Red Sox are always dangerous, I think that CJ Wilson is the biggest wildcard in the situation. If he walks from the Rangers, look for them to be very aggressive with Darvish. The winning team will likely have to cough up around 6 years and $75M in a contract, meaning the total amount spent by the team would be around $130M over 6 years. For that kind of money, these teams better be sure they are getting the ace they are looking for to take them over the top.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Rob Bland. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan onFacebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Ichiro Suzuki: What Happened in 2011 to the Mariners Superstar and Looking to 2013
Friday September 16, 2011
Sam Evans (Intern – MLB reports): When Ichiro Suzuki came into the league in 2001, people did not know what to expect from him. He exceeded any and all expectations, becoming the second MLB player all-time to win rookie of the year and MVP in the same season. The next eight years seemed easy for Ichiro; the highlight moment coming when he set the all-time hits record in a single season record in 2004 with 262. Not to mention, he became the first player in MLB history to have 200 hits in ten straight years.
Going into 2011, few analysts considered Ichiro’s production tailing off drastically. Sure, he was 37 years old, but he might be in better shape than any other player in the majors. In April of this year, Ichiro batted .328 and stole ten bases. However, in May and June he batted .210 and .282 respectively. This season has turned out to be Ichiro’s worst year in the majors by a large margin. From 2001 to 2010, he never hit below .303. In 2011, he’s hitting .272 with 5 HR and 72 RBI.
Ichiro’s production relies on his ability to get on base and create havoc on the base paths. Last year Ichiro had 53 infield hits, while this year he only has 32. Even though Ichiro’s 32 infield hits currently leads the majors, it is still the lowest total Ichiro has ever had in his career. It is not like these are cheap hits either, as former Detroit Third Basemen Brandon Inge commented to the New York Times on August 22,2009, “I wish you could put a camera at third base to see how he hits the ball and see the way it deceives you. You can call some guys’ infield hits cheap, but not his. He has an amazing technique.”
One of the arguments that has been set out in attempting to explain Ichiro’s decline this year has been that he is getting slower and slower. I disagree with this statement. He is on pace to steal 43 bases, which is right around his career average. In the field, Ichiro may have gotten a tad slower, but I think that is due to his taking bad angles to the ball, rather than a decline in his abilities. However, while not attempting to insult Ichiro as a player, it is apparent though that his intensity is a definitely a lot lower this year. This leads to the following conclusion in my opinion; Ichiro Suzuki is a human being. He is playing for a Mariners team that has not reached the playoffs since 2001. He has consistently been playing about 150 games a year, not including spring training. It seems like no matter how good of a season Ichiro has, the players and team around him are disappointing. After all, we are talking about the Mariners. A player can only take so much losing at a certain point, even the great Ichiro.
One factor explaining Ichiro’s off-year is bad luck. This is his first year with a BABIP under .300 (Ichiro’s career average is .352), and according
to Baseball Info Solutions, he has lost more hits than any other big leaguer on “good fielding plays.” No matter how you read the stats, the bottom line is that Ichiro has had a pretty bad year by his standards. He has played below-average defense, and at times looked lazy in the field. His On-Base-Percentage is at a career low .312, and he would need an incredible 30 hits in his last 13 games to reach 200 again. To make everything worse, Ichiro turns 38 in October.
Next year, will be interesting one for Ichiro Suzuki. It is his contract year and the Mariners are starting to acquire some legitimate pieces around him. A playoff year is probably out of the question, but a .500 year is very possible. Personally, I think he will bounce back and hit over .300 with another 200 hit season. With a better surrounding cast, I see glimpses of the old Ichiro returning. I don’t think he’ll ever return to the level he was on in 2004, but as long as he stays interested in the game, I think he will be an above-average right fielder for the next five years.
Without a doubt, Ichiro is a first ballot Hall-of-famer. He is the only player to have ten straight seasons of 200 or more hits. He also holds the all time record for hits in a single season with 262. Ichiro’s contract runs out at the end of 2012. The main question I believe is whether he will want to keep playing in North America. His friends and family are back in Japan, where he is a fashion icon. If Ichiro does continue to play baseball, I would be shocked if it were for a team outside of Seattle. When his career is finally over, most people will remember Ichiro for helping break the barrier between professional baseball in Japan and MLB. Overall, I expect most will remember Ichiro as being the greatest Japanese baseball player of all time.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Intern, Sam Evans. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Sam on Twitter.***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
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