Wednesday February 22nd, 2012

Sam Evans: Over the last three seasons, Heath Bell has recorded more saves than anyone in baseball. Whenever the Padres had a late-inning lead they could rely on Bell to shut the door. In 2011, Bell got the job done in San Diego once again. He tallied 43 saves in 48 opportunities. Unfortunately, he didn’t pitch in as dominant of a fashion as we are used to seeing from Bell. His strikeout and line drive percentages both were askew from the standards we are used to seeing from him. In 2012, Bell will have to rekindle his previous success, in order to continue his triumph as one of the games premier closers

Ever since Bell received his chance to close for the Padres in 2009, he has been dominant. In the last decade, Padres fans have been lucky enough to witness not only future Hall-of-Famer Trevor Hoffman, but Heath Bell as well. Bell has made three straight All-Star teams, and he’s been recognized as the NL Reliever of the Year twice. Not to mention, he has seemingly brought joy and wisdom to the Padres bullpen. When it comes to closers, Heath Bell is as good as it gets. Not even Mariano Rivera has been pitching at the same level Bell has been these past couple of years.

Heath Bell’s 2011 looks just like his previous two seasons if you just look at his saves and ERA. However, he only struck out fifty-one batters, which is not impressive compared to his 79 and 86 totals from the years preceding 2011. Bell had a 10.21 K/9 in ’09, and a 11.06 K/9 in ’10. But in 2011 he saw that fall all the way to a 7.32. Heath Bell’s walks and pitch velocity remained constant, so it’s not like his whole game was different. However, he is not as dominant without strikeouts.

Being a closer, you usually have to possess the potential to strike out almost any hitter. Indians closer Chris Perez has shown that it’s not necessary, but most MLB closers strike out close to one batter per game. Part of the reason that Bell is such a great closer, is his ability to strike out masses of hitters. Last year, he didn’t strike out as many hitters as we’re used to seeing him. Overall, if Heath Bell wants to continue to succeed as a closer, he’s going to need to strike out more hitters. Plain and simple.

This offseason, Bell left the comfortable confines of Petco Park for the flashy and improved Florida Marlins organization. He signed a three-year, $27 million contract. He will join Jose Reyes as part of the new free agent class that the Marlins reeled in (get it? reeled in…because a Marlin is a fish? Funny, I know.) Leaving one of the best pitchers parks in baseball will naturally cause regression for Bell, but with the new stadium yet to be played in, we just don’t know how much.

Florida has a new ballpark, and apparently, a new philosophy. The old Marlins would have never committed $27 million to a closer, but I think that the Marlins desperately wanted multiple superstars on their roster. If not to win games, at least to put fans in the seats. In Bell, the Marlins have found a new veteran to lead their team for years to come.

It’s very possible that Bell’s surprising strikeout rates last year are a very small issue. Pitchers are allowed to have off-years, and maybe Bell just had an unusual year. My point is that there are numerous factors that could have gone into his low strikeout rates. Who knows, maybe this year Bell will continue down his new path of recording saves without high strikeouts. My best guess is that Bell’s strikeouts will return to replicate his previous numbers. He might regress in other categories of the game, but 2012 should be another year filled with saves and strikeouts for Bell. Get ready Miami fans- excitement is guaranteed at the end of your games from now on!

***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Sam Evans.  We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers.  You can also follow Sam on Twitter.***