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Baltimore Orioles State Of The Union For 2016

The Baltimore Orioles needed a 5 game winning streak at the year's end just to crack .500 last season. Now they might lose the reigning AL HR king and Wei Yin Chen from last years squad. Dan Duquette needs to be diligent with his roster over this winter otherwise the club could start a free fall back down the AL East Standings circa 1998 - 2011.

The Baltimore Orioles needed a 5 game winning streak at the year’s end just to crack .500 last season. Now they might lose the reigning AL HR king and Wei Yin Chen from last years squad. Dan Duquette needs to be diligent with his roster over this winter otherwise the club could start a free fall back down the AL East Standings circa 1998 – 2011.

Chuck Booth (Owner/Lead  Analyst) 

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The Baltimore Orioles are in serious jeopardy of falling back into a tailspin in the AL East if they don’t turn around their winter. 

Last year you could at least fathom that they had 3 players coming back from injury in Manny Machado, Matt Wieters and Chris Davis that they could rebound and repeat as AL East champs

Buck Showalter saw his team scramble for a .500 record – yet the season was a massive disappointment from the previous 3 years.

Now the club might lose Chris Davis, Wei-Yin Chen and Gerardo Parra to Free Agency.  The management stopped the bleeding a little with the recent re-signing of Darren O’Day.

Losing Chris Davis and his 45+ HR power would be very difficult to replace. The O's have been rumored to have offered him a 7 YR deal worth $150 MIL. Should Davis not accept this and move elsewhere the organization should still spend the money allocated for the big 1B.

Losing Chris Davis and his 45+ HR power would be very difficult to replace. The O’s have been rumored to have offered him a 7 YR deal worth $150 MIL. Should Davis not accept this and move elsewhere the organization should still spend the money allocated for the big 1B.

I am not going to give them crap either for offering Davis a 7 YR deal that is worth around $150 MIL.  That is a totally fair offer.

I like that they offered Wieters the Qualifying Offer and that he accepted it.  This was a mutually beneficial move that worked out for both sides.

On the surface the Orioles are not in bad shape.  They have an emerging superstar in Manny Machado at 3B – and a decent uprising player at 2B in Jonathan SchoopAdam Jones is still patrolling CF for the next few seasons as well.

Adam Jones has cracked 25+ HRs in 5 straight seasons and made four straight ALL - Star Appearances. At age 30 he has 3 more years left on his current contract. If Baltimore has a poor 1st half in 2016 might it be the time to trade he, Matt Wieters, Mark Trumbo, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Zach Britton for a full scale rebuild while all of their value is still high.

Adam Jones has cracked 25+ HRs in 5 straight seasons and made four straight ALL – Star Appearances. At age 30 he has 3 more years left on his current contract. If Baltimore has a poor 1st half in 2016 might it be the time to trade he, Matt Wieters, Mark Trumbo, Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Zach Britton for a full scale rebuild while all of their value is still high.

So for the club also traded for Mark Trumbo – who should help alleviate some of the power loss if Davis leaves – although I am not certain he will fare any better than the production the squad received from Steve Pearce in 2015 as a DH/1B.

This organization is in desperate need for OF help.  Whether that is re-signing Davis or inking another Free Agent into the mix.

The worst player they could sign would be a player like Justin Upton.  He is really a hot/cold guy and the O’s already possess a guy with the same tool set in Adam Jones.

If the O's cant come to terms with Chris Davis maybe they should seek out Free Agent Alex Gordon instead. He is a premiere fielder and his Left Handed bat would workout great in Baltimore's lineup. If Gordon is not the answer either than the club should opt for a leadoff Free Agent like Denard Span or Dexter Fowler.

If the O’s cant come to terms with Chris Davis maybe they should seek out Free Agent Alex Gordon instead. He is a premiere fielder and his Left Handed bat would workout great in Baltimore’s lineup. If Gordon is not the answer either than the club should opt for a leadoff Free Agent like Denard Span or Dexter Fowler.

Out of the Free Agents remaining, I think that Denard Span or Dexter Fowler would be better solutions.  You may even be able to free up Adam Jones to an Outfield spot that can take some wear and tear of his bones.

Another guy that would help out on both defense and provide left handed pop out of the lineup is Alex Gordon.

This team does need more of a leadoff type hitter – and that is why Span or Fowler are better fits. If the team does end up doing a deal with Davis, you could always see a mixture of Trumbo and Jimmy Paredes in RF.

Keep in mind that Trumbo will also be a Free Agent after the next season.

It seems about once every 3 years Ubaldo Jimenez puts together a Cy Young caliber type of year. If he can find all the stars aligned in the right direction he could throw like a suitable #1 pitcher in the league. The problem with the rotation is that Jimenez and Tillman are up and down - while Gausman and Bundy are unproven at the big league. At least the potential is there for one year.

It seems about once every 3 years Ubaldo Jimenez puts together a Cy Young caliber type of year. If he can find all the stars aligned in the right direction he could throw like a suitable #1 pitcher in the league. The problem with the rotation is that Jimenez and Tillman are up and down – while Gausman and Bundy are unproven at the big league. At least the potential is there for one year.

The rotation is not that bad either if you have the good Ubaldo Jimenez and Chris Tillman.  Having them both successful at the same time just might be a bit of a stretch.

There is no doubt the club would love to see internal improvements from Kevin Gausman and potentially Dylan Bundy coming up.  Gausman in just 25 in 2016 – and Bundy despite battling injury for the last few years is still only 23 this upcoming campaign.

If those guys can live up to the billing they had as top prospects then maybe the Orioles will not have any problems to worry about in the Starting Rotation.

I saw the Baltimore Orioles play 24 games at home and 16 more times live in the 2015 season. This team needs to re-sign Davis otherwise they will be in big trouble. The club was 47 - 31 at Camden Yards while they only mustered at 34 - 50 mark on the road. If they can sign Davis and have everyone healthy in 2016 - they did only finish 6 games behind the playoff bar in 2015.

I saw the Baltimore Orioles play 24 games at home and 16 more times on the road. live in the 2015 season. This team needs to re-sign Davis otherwise they will be in big trouble. The club was 47 – 31 at Camden Yards while they only mustered at 34 – 50 mark on the road. If they can sign Davis and have everyone healthy in 2016 – they did only finish 6 games behind the playoff bar in 2015.  The  Bullpen needs to have a bounce back year – as does J.J. Hardy, Matt Wieters and Chris Tillman.  Peter Angelos will need to spend another $30 – $40 MIL on payroll from where they are now to contend for the AL East Division.

The Relief Core is still solid with Closer Zach Britton being set up by O’Day, Brad Brach and Brian Matusz.  The club had a of Bullpen guys carry ERA’s of over 4 in 2015 – that will need to be rectified in 2016 for them to compete.

Chaz Roe and T.J. McFarland will need to better this coming year.  The organization may look to add some more pieces for the later innings through Free Agency still.  They could use a flame thrower like they had in Tommy Hunter previously.

The total team salary is probably going to sit at $117 MIL after Arbitration Eligible players are paid out, so they might only have about $20 – $25 MIL more to spend after that.

Baltimore will have to figure out Matt Wieters situation by the midway point of 2016.  If they are in contention they should keep him for the playoff push.  If they are not near the playoff bar in July, then Trumbo, Wieters, Matusz and potentially several other players should be made available.

It is a fine line of where the team is right now with the players exponentially hitting late Arbitration years and becoming more expensive.  This cycle is hitting many clubs after 2 or 3 years of decent records.

Look at the Oakland A’s, Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Indians and Milwaukee Brewers as organizations that have has some success of late and then found it hard to keep the ship together once players were becoming Closer to Free Agency

It is tough to compete in the AL East with Boston having spent a ton on talent this year, Toronto still holding an offensive juggernaut, the Yankees are always going to be there – and the Rays having the best all around Rotation in the Division.

The window may very well have passed.  If the club can retain Davis it might by them another 2 years of solid competing, however Peter Angelos will need to spend more money than he ever has for that to happen.  I am just not sold he is willing to do that.

Have Buck Showalter and Dan Duquette both run their course in Maryland? The team won the AL East in 2014 with 97 wins before taking a 16 victory fall back in 2015. With the tough Division becoming increasingly difficult to win with the Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox all residing, perhaps Baltimore has already lost its window to win.

Have Buck Showalter and Dan Duquette both run their course in Maryland? The team won the AL East in 2014 with 97 wins before taking a 16 victory fall back in 2015. With the tough Division becoming increasingly difficult to win with the Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox all residing, perhaps Baltimore has already lost its window to win.  There must be incredible improvement internally from their Starting Staff of Kevin Gausman, Chris Tillman and potentially the coming of Dylan Bundy.

*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com and their partners***

I am happy to be back at the helm of the MLB Reports, after completing my record 224 Games in the MLB Trip in 2015.  It was the 4th time I have seen all 30 MLB Parks since 2008. 

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Interview on CSN Philly during the month of July.

Interview on CSN Philly during the month of July.

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About chuckbooth3023

I played competitive baseball until 18 years old and had offers to play NCAA Division 1 University Baseball at Liberty University. Post-concussion symptoms from previous football and baseball head injuries forced me to retire by age 19. After two nearly made World Record Attempts in 2008, I set a New World Record by visiting all 30 MLB Parks (from 1st to last pitch) in only 24 Calendar Days in the summer 0f 2009. In April of 2012, I established yet another new GWR by visiting all 30 Parks in only 23 Calendar Days! You can see the full schedule at the page of the www.mlbreports.com/gwr-tracker . In 2015, I watched 224 MLB Games, spanning all 30 MLB Parks in 183 Days. Read about that World Record Journey at https://mlbreports.com/183in2015/229sked2015/

Posted on December 12, 2015, in MLB Teams State Of the Unions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. 1 Comment.

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