Pick KC To Win The 2016 World Series At The 18/1 ODD: It’s Worth It Even To Hedge Later
Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer) Follow @stokes_hunter21
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I was curious to see what the odds were for the 2016 World Series when they were first posted. As a former professional gambler this is my favorite thing to do. I was happy to see the early mistake made by Vegas. KC at 18/1 odds? Thanks fellas!
Odds courtesy of vegasodds.com
Blue Jays 10/1
Red Sox 18/1
It is not just that they were tied for 11th on the board. It is how many teams that were ahead or tied with them. 3 teams in the NL Central (Cubs, Cards and Pirates) and 3 AL East clubs (Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox) were ahead of them.
Let me get this straight….The Royals, who should be prohibitive favorites in the AL Central, and may have the easiest Division to win in 2016, are down that far? Wrong….
I raced down to Vegas to plunk my cabbage on this one. For those that don’t remember, I bet the Royals and Mets to win their League Championship Series because they both yielded home park advantages versus the Blue Jays and Cubs respectively.
Furthermore, even when KC went up 1 – 0 versus Toronto, they were still only listed as a -135 favorite. Meaning for every 100 dollars wagered, you would make $74. That was an easy decision as I also had a preseason pick for the Jays for $30 at 20/1 Odds. It worked as a hedge.
I let my winnings ride for next year. The bet was for $250 at 18/1 odds for the Royals. That is a nice return of $4500 if these guys repeat. But alas, I only need them to make the playoffs.
You see part of great handicapping is using position of power to influence a starting wager. Lets say the Royals win the Division in 2016. They will play 3 series en route to the World Series. I can hedge any one of the series to make my money back at the least. Remember – a $4500 win is lurking in the weeds.
As back to back AL Pennant winners they should be favored versus any other team in the AL except one. You would see the Jays probably be favored against them if they met up during the 2016 playoffs. Again those pundits would not be right on that one more time.
The AL Central is there for the Royals in 2016. The Tigers are old. The White Sox have Chris Sale but can’t get him a surrounding cast. The Indians are good to contend, however they will not spend money to improve the club. The Twins are still about 2 years from being an awesome.
KC’s core are coming back in 2016. Sure they may not see Alex Gordon, Johnny Cueto, Ben Zobrist or Chris Young comeback, but the team spent the majority of the year without most of their services anyway.
In 2014, the playoffs featured 8 series like it has since the adoption of the 2nd Wild Card. In all series, the underdog won outright. Can you imagine the cash won if you bet those all?
In 2015, with the exception of the Royals knocking out the Astros, and the Blue Jays escaping a 2 – 0 hole to the Rangers, 6 out of 8 more underdog teams won their series yet again. Obviously this a growing trend in the MLB.
The game has changed to utter unpredictably during the postseasons. The last time the favored team even won the Fall Classic was 2009, when the Yankees beat the Phillies.
Each of the San Francisco titles, they were the underdogs. The Rangers were one out from finishing off the Cards in 2011, before they lost out to the underdog. The 2013 Red Sox should have probably lost to St. Louis, but they were a team of destiny.
Just like in the LCS round, the Royals had home field advantage over the Mets, yet were a slight underdog at +100 to the -120 favored New York squad.
Back to the 2016 World Series odds. The AL East and NL Central represent the worst value on the board for the teams listed in the top 12. Don’t bet the Cubs, Cards, Pirates, Blue Jays, Yankees or Red Sox at least to start the season.
I wouldn’t touch the Dodgers either at +800. The last time the favorite team to start the year won was the 2009 Yankees. It rarely happens, and the payoff is never substantial.
I still like the Mets and Nats both at +1000. Even the Astros and Rangers are not guaranteed a return trip to the playoffs in 2016.
Think of New York and Washington beating up on the Marlins, Phillies and Braves again in next season. Teams that combined for a 201 – 285 record this last year. (.414). That is 57 games a year against those clubs.
You may say the NL West is just as easy, however the Rockies home park of Coors screws up the visiting club, and the Padres and D’Backs were a hell of a lot closer to .500.
However you slice it, the Royals odd for the World Series, actually breaks down to a nice odd for them just to win their Division if you hedge correctly. Place your bets please.
*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com and their partners***
A Big thanks goes out to our chief writer Hunter Stokes for preparing today’s feature post.
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Posted on November 7, 2015, in gambling 101 and tagged 2009 World Series, 2014 world series, 2015 World Series, 2016 world series, al central, AL East, AL West, alex gordon, alex meyer, alex rodriguez, All 30 MLB Teams, American league, arizona diamondbacks, Atlanta Braves, baltimore orioles, ben zobrist, boston red sox, byron buxton, chicago cubs, chicago white sox, chris davis, chris young, cincinnati reds, cleveland indians, colorado rockies, david price, denard span, detroit tigers, don mattingly, ervin santana, giancarlo stanton, houston astros, jeff samardzija, johnny cueto, jordan zimmerman, jose fernadez, justin verlander, kansas city royals, la angels, la dodgers, mark teixeira, miami marlins, miguel cabrera, miguel sano, Mike Trout, milwaukee brewers, minnesota twins, national league, new york mets, new york yankees, NL Central, NL east, nl west, oakland athletics, odds to win the 2016 world series, peter angelos, philadelphia phillies, pittsburgh pirates, robinson cano, san diego padres, san francisco giants, seattle mariners, st louis cardinals, tampa bay rays, texas rangers, toronto blue jays, victor martinez, washington nationals, yoenis cespedes, yu darvish, zack greinke. Bookmark the permalink. Comments Off on Pick KC To Win The 2016 World Series At The 18/1 ODD: It’s Worth It Even To Hedge Later.