2015 Regular Season Win Over/Unders In The MLB + Best Bets
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Over/Unders for the year, based on odds given by http://www.bovada.com sports book
Arizona – 71.5 (over is -115) (under is -115)
I gotta go with the under. San Diego, LA and SF are all much better, and even Colorado is tough on the road. Like them at just around 70 wins. Is a rebuilding year, and they might fetch a heavy ransom if Mark Trumbo can have a bounce back 1st half. 2016 maybe the year the can contend again.
Atlanta – 73.5 (over is -115) (under is -115)
I like the over on this one big time. This club lost a ton of offense, yet I like their run prevention more than ever. Shelby Miller was a great acquisition, and they still have a nasty Bullpen. I am not as bullish on the rest of the NL East as a lot of clubs are too. Wouldn’t call this a best bet, however, like them to win 75 – 77 games.
Baltimore Orioles – 82.5 (over is -115) (under is -115) #3 Best Bet (Over)
Take the over on this one. Man, I may have to put this as one of my best bets on the board. Seriously, Matt Wieters, Manny Machado and Chris Davis underperformed in 2014 (or were hurt) and this club still won the AL East with mid 90’s in wins. Nelson Cruz is lost sure, but with Crush on Adderall again, he should hit 35 – 40 big flys. This team still has great depth as well. To say they will drop 15 victories from last year is plain dumb.
Boston is better in the division yes, but the Yankees and Rays are worse in my view, and the Blue Jays are stagnant. I will take the O’s to repeat as AL East Division winner too.
Boston Red Sox – 86.5 ( (over is -105) (under is -125)
Stay away from this number altogether, as these guys pegged this squad perfectly. I think this team is between a 85 – 90 win club this year. Can Hanley Ramirez and Mike Napoli stay healthy? How about Pablo Sandoval in the regular season? Clay Buchholz for that matter? Too many question marks. Talent is there, but not something to put cabbage down on. If they acquire an ace like Cole Hamels, Johnny Cueto or Jeff Samardzija (if the White Sox have a horrid 1st half), this club will go north of the total.
Chicago Cubs – 82.5 (over is -130) (under is EVEN) #9 Best Bet (Under)
Jump at this selection for the Under. Too many variables and depending on so many youngsters. Bright future. My prediction is that they will enter the ALL – Star Break 6 – 8 games under .500, and then make up the difference in the second half, to reel in 78 – 81 wins. 2016 is the year for them. NL Central is tough cookie still with the Cards, Pirates, Reds and Brewers all providing great opponents for nearly half of the schedule.
Chicago White Sox – 81.5 (over is -130) (under is EVEN)
I gotta go with the under for a 2nd straight time with a Chicago club. My theory here is that 1 out of the 2 might fail, and one might surpass the total. You should break even for it. Can Jose Abreu repeat 2014 – or is a sophomore jinx in his season? Adam LaRoche is steady, yet I see a small decline for him in production with his age. Melky Cabrera is still in a hitters park, but I think he regresses a bit from his 2014 campaign.
Like them at 79 – 81 victories. Still an improvement. If Chris Sale can get rid off his annual DL stint in April, I would take the over past that point.
Cincinnati Reds – 77.5 (over is -115) (under is -115)
Another perfect total. Would never risk any dough on this. I would say Under on this. I can another decent start before July, hovering around the .500 mark, only to see Cueto be dealt in the middle of July. Bullpen still has issues after Aroldis Chapman. Expect better years for Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, but see a slight decline from Todd Frazier (poor 2nd half in 2014) and Devin Mesoraco. Marlon Byrd may be traded before the deadline too. Probably a 74 – 76 win squad this year.
Cleveland Indians – 84.5 (over is -105) (under is -125)
They would have gone over both of the last 2 years if this was the preseason total. Love the pitching, and Jason Kipnis will be more of his 2013 self, which should make up for a regression from Michael Brantley. Corey Kluber‘s Cy Young 2014 season may be the tip of the iceberg. Much like the Baltimore Orioles, like Terry Francona to maximize the talent. Also better value in picking over than under, so pick it.
Colorado Rockies – 71.5 (over is -125) (under is -105)
Another year for the Rockies – and another season rests on the health of Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. The move here is to pick the over right now, and then do a reverse hedge after the club jumps out to a nice start after April. They always crash and burn after the 1st month of the year in the last few years. Overall, still go for the over.
Detroit Tigers – 84.5 (over is -105) (under is -125) #2 Best Bet (Over)
This is a no-brainer. Pick the over. Seriously?? The AL Central is improved, but also doesn’t threaten the best of them with the offenses in the Division. With the Tigers depth at Starting Pitching, (adding Alfredo Simon and David Price for full year, cushions the blow of Max Scherzer loss), and Justin Verlander should rebound. Adding Yoenis Cespedes proves to the be the deciding factor in me having his wager as one of my top 5 selection. Think the “Motown Boys” will tune up 86 – 89 victories.
Houston Astros – 75.5 (over is -115) (under is -115)
Is a team of free swingers, and I think they will clobbers some rawhide around the diamond again this year. I like the aggression with the Relief Core stable in 2015, however I think the league figures out Collin McHugh in his 2nd full year with the franchise. George Springer will continue his ascent. I think this club will miss Dexter Fowler more than they realize, and as much as I love Jose Altuve, is he really going to hit .341 with 225 hits? Too many 1B/DH types, and they should look to trade Chris Carter with Evan Gattis being in the fold now.
Kansas City Royals – 81.5 (over is -105) (under is -125) #7 Best Bet (Over)
You go to the World Series and are barely slated to hover around .500 now? I know there can be the hangover from the loser of the Fall Classic, but I like the young guys on this squad. The Bullpen remains intact, and Billy Butler and Nori Aoki can be replaced. The whole reason to pick them over is because of Lorenzo Cain, Eric Hosmer and the skill level of new ace Yordano Ventura. I pencil them in for 84 – 87 wins, and they may miss the playoffs, but below .500 is tough to see with that depth in pitching, defense and team speed.
LA Angels – 88.5 (over is -105) (under is -125) #10 Best Bet (Under)
Josh Hamilton is out for the 1st few months, they are without Tyler Skaggs probably for duration, start the year without Garrett Richards, and said goodbye to 2B stalwart Howie Kendrick. I see a massive fall back to the pack. I think Seattle is the toast of this Division now. Oakland will surprise some folks still, the Ranger’s should be better, and the Astros certainly aren’t pushovers anymore. This is a tough AL West. Wins will be hard to come by. I have the Halo’s bringing in 84 – 86 Wins this year. Having said that, Mike Trout should have another MVP caliber season.
LA Dodgers – 92.5 (over is -105) (under is -125)
Same total as last year. I hate the offeseason for this team. Subtracting Matt Kemp, Dee Gordon and Hanley Ramirez from this lineup will have serious ramification to the lineup during the regular season. Howie Kendrick is a steady professional, but Jimmy Rollins is on his back end of his career. Yasiel Puig will have to breakout for an MVP campaign, with Joc Pederson reeling in the Rookie Of the Year mark, for them to go over. Hard to improve on Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke campaigns from one year ago. Without Kenley Jansen until mid May, take the under. Still like them to win the NL West, but with 87-89 wins.
Miami Marlins – 81.5 ( (over is -130) (under is EVEN)
Go with the under here, based on the even money odd. I think they will bring forth a 80 – 82 season, but how many times has Giancarlo Stanton played a full year? Jose Fernandez also misses half of the year at least. Mat Latos is a talented chucker, yet can’t bank on him for 32 Game Starts either. Which Dan Haren are you receiving?
Milwaukee Brewers – 78.5 (over is -125) (under is -105)
Hell yes take the over. I foresee Ryan Braun having a wicked season. Khris Davis and Scooter Gennett flying under the radar, and this was a club that led the Division for 150 days last year. Not saying they are a playoff bound squad, but project 79 – 81 wins for sure.
Minnesota Twins – 71.5 (over is -125) (under is -105) #8 Best Bet (Over)
They mustered 70 wins last year and they all underachieved except for Brian Dozier, Phil Hughes and Glen Perkins. Add a plethora of young talent infusion, coupled with Torii Hunter back with his original franchise, and I like this team to improve 4 or 5 wins. That means a 75 – 76 win season.
New York Mets – 81.5 (over is -125) (under is -105)
I have to go with the Under yet again. Just like Miami, they have their ace coming back from Tommy John. Sure Matt Harvey will be there to start the year, but I hate their offense. Michael Cuddyer and David Wright haven’t proved to be healthy ballplayers of late, and I don’t think Lucas Duda will rake 30+ HRs again. Curtis Granderson is the new leadoff guy. Like that move if it were 3 years ago. Flawed offense, and a failure to upgrade lineup will be the downfall. Wouldn’t stake any $ down here, just think is an 81 – 81 team. 2016 will be better.
New York Yankees – 81.5 (over is -115) (under is -115)
A gambling website finally has this right. Horrific offseason for Brian Cashman. I think they will fall under .500 for first time in 23 years in 2015. Masahiro Tanaka will still go under the knife for his elbow, and Alex Rodriguez will be gone by May 1st. This squad needs Brett Gardner and Carlos Betlran to have healthy and productive 1st halfs – and then you can trade both of them, get under the $189 MIL luxury threshold. I believe this is a 78 – 80 win club all day long this year.
Oakland A’s – 81.5 (over is -115) (under is -115)
Surprisingly this betting entity is still giving Oakland respect. I believe in them too. Their defense may be better in 2015, with the additions of Ben Zobrist and Ike Davis patrolling the right side of the Infield, and Brett Lawrie should benefit from a move to natural grass, and a market where he is obscure (at least to start). Starting Pitching is still deep. Don’t bet this at all though, as Beane may decide to trade like crazy at the Deadine – with guys like Zobrist, Scott Kazmir, Josh Reddick, Coco Crisp and several relievers either headed to Free Agency, or too much money in future Arbitration $. This team should still remain competitive, and think they can reign in 82 – 84 wins – if the GM doesn’t dismantle them in July.
Philadelphia Phillies – 68.5 (over is -125) (under is -105)
Things could go from bad to ugly in 2015. I predict Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Jonathan Papelbon, Ryan Howard, Carlos Ruiz and Chase Utley will be flipped in deals (Pat Gillick may have to step in to orchestrate this if Ruben Amaro keeps failing at his job), and whatever they do in the 1st half (probably not good), the club should pull in the worst 2nd half out of all teams in the bigs. Pick the under, and wouldn’t faze me for these guys to near 100 losses.
Pittsburgh Pirates – 84.5 (over is -115) (under is -115) #5 Best Bet (Over)
Just like the O’s, Tigers and Indians, if they carry on with what they have done the last few seasons, the Bucs should eclipse this win total. I may even lean on picking them to win the NL Central. Love their OF, and the Infield should see a nice boost from a focused Pedro Alvarez and Neil Walker in a contract year. I think Francisco Cervelli may surprise some people too. A.J. Burnett should make up for the Edinson Volquez departure. Like Pittsburgh to hover around 90 wins this year.
San Diego Padres – 84.5 (over is -105) (under is -125) #4 Best Bet (Under)
There is no way to convince me the Padres should have the same OVER/UNDER as the Detroit Tigers and Pittsburgh Pirates. l will be writing a blog soon about the flawed way of thinking behind building this team. I understand the moves by A.J. Preller, and he is restricted by the market, however I still think banking on half of your roster overcoming troubled injury history will do them in. Also too many changes in the offseason to gel in time. This reminds me of the Toronto offyear in 2012 – going into 2013. I have this squad as a 76 – 78 win team. Shocking right? My best bet of the Unders this year.
SF Giants – 84.5 (over is -115) (under is -115)
Can the defending champs buck the trend of not making the playoffs in the following year after a title? I believe this team will finish in 2nd for the Division. I think they get fat on the Rockies and D’Backs, while they play the Padres and Dodgers tight enough. I think they do well versus the rest of the National League too. I can see them tallying 85 – 87 wins, and challenging for a Wild Card slot.
Seattle Mariners – 86.5 (over is -130) (under is EVEN) #6 Best Bet (Over)
Pick the over. I actually see the M’s being the only 90+ win franchise in the American League. Adding Nelson Cruz will help out with Robinson Cano‘s pitch selection. Underrated pickups of Seth Smith and Justin Ruggiano, along with a full year from Austin Jackson, mean they don’t have to feed their fanbase a steady dose of Endy Chavez this season. Love their Starting Pitching as the best in the AL, and the Bullpen is still rock solid.
St. Louis Cardinals – 88.5 (over is -115) (under is -115)
They struggled out of the gate in 2014, and I forecast another rough beginning to the 2015 season. I love the Jason Heyward trade. I think they fall just under this total with 87 – 88 wins, but will make the playoffs as a WILD CARD team, and then lookout.
Tampa Bay Rays – 78.5 (over is -105) (under is -125)
Too many long-term people left last year and over the winter. I think this team will struggle early, but rally in the second half with an above .500 (Post – All Star Record). I think they will be buried early though. 74 – 77 victories is all the team will bring in with that offense. Look for Asdrubal Cabrera, and all other pending Free Agents to be flipped in July. Once Matt Moore returns, the team will be back to competitive again.
Texas Rangers – 78.5 (over is -130) (under is – EVEN)
I am going to side with the UNDER here. I see an offensive rebound with the likes of Prince Fielder and Shin-Soo Choo being healthy again. I do see some problems with the pitching though. Tough AL West will ultimately do them in. But is 75 – 77 wins all that bad after last year’s 90+ Loss squad? Not everyone coming back from injury will recover in time.
Toronto Blue Jays – 83.5 ( (over is -115) (under is -125)
The 3,4 and 5 hitters of Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Josh Donaldson is enough to make opposing pitchers have nightmares. They are all in for 2015 with the addition of Russell Martin. I would hit the Catcher 2nd after Jose Reyes, with that high OBP. This Canadian squad will bash their way over that win mark, and end with 85 – 87 triumphs on the year. This should be enough to contend for a WIld Card Position all year. If they add an ace (you should go all this year and not delay), I would vault them into a Division win.
If they don’t trade for an ace, it is a mistake in my view. Michael Saunders may end up to be the steal of the off year. Catching depth with Dioner Navarro, a great chip to trade. Keep spending Toronto, this is your best look at Post Season since 1993. Take advantage of the Yankees being down now, or peril later when they start spending again.
Washington Nationals – 93.5 (over is -115) (under is -125) #1 Best Bet (Over)
The club won 96 games last year despite missing Bryce Harper for half the year, and Wilson Ramos for a huge chunk. Add in new ace Max Scherzer, and this club could even be better. Ryan Zimmerman can be a big difference at 1B – with less physical torque on his body. I look for Harper to breakout of for a top 10 MVP finish, and club 30 HRs with 100 RBI.
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Posted on February 25, 2015, in gambling 101, The Rest: Everything Baseball and tagged A. J. Preller, a.j. burnett, adam laroche, adderall, al central, AL East, AL West, albert pujols, alfredo simon, All 30 MLB Teams, American league, arizona diamondbacks, aroldis chapman, Atlanta Braves, austin jackson, baltimore orioles, ben zobrist, billy butler, boston red sox, brett gardner, brett lawrie, brian cashman, Brian Dozier, carlos beltra, carlos beltran, carlos gonzalez, cc sabathia, chase utley, chicago cubs, chicago white sox, chris carter, chris davis, chris sale, cincinnati reds, clay buchholz, cleveland indians, cliff lee, coco crisp, cole hamels, colorado rockies, Corey Kluber, curtis granderson, dan haren, david price, david wright, dee gordon, detroit tigers, devin mesoraco, Dexter Fowler, dioner navarro, edwin encarnacion, endy chavez, eric hosmer, evan gattis, francisco cervelli, george springer, giancarlo stanton, glen perkins, hanley ramirez, houston astros, howie kendrick, ian desmond, jason kipnis, jay bruce, jeff samardzija, jimmy rollins, Joc Pederson, joey votto, johnny cueto, jordan zimmermann, jose abreu, jose altuve, jose bautista, jose fernandez, jose reyes, josh donaldson, josh reddick, justin ruggiano, justin upton, justin verlander, kansas city royals, kenley jansen, Khris Davis, la angels, la dodgers, lorenzo cain, lucas duda, manny machado, mark teixeira, mark trumbo, masahiro tanaka, matt kemp, matt wieters, melky cabrera, miami marlins, michael brantley, michael cuddyer, Michael Saunders, miguel cabrera, Mike Trout, milwaukee brewers, minnesota twins, national league, neil walker, nelson cruz, new york mets, new york yankees, NL Central, NL east, nl west, oakland athletics, pat gillick, pedro alvarez, phil hughes, philadelphia phillies, pittsburgh pirates, robinson cano, ryan braun, ryan howard, ryan zimmerman, san diego padres, san francisco giants, seattle mariners, seth smith, shelby miller, st louis cardinals, tampa bay rays, Terry Francona, texas rangers, todd frazier, toronto blue jays, troy tulowitzki, tyler skaggs, victor martinez, washington nationals, yasiel puig, yoenis cespedes. Bookmark the permalink. 1 Comment.