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The Dodgers Make The Right Move To Re-Sign Kendrick

The Dodgers may have overpaid to hold on to Brett Anderson with the Qualifying Offer, however lucked out with Howie Kendrick rejected the QO in November, only to sign for just $4.2 MIL for a 2nd year. The club was able to ink the 31 year old to a 2 YR/$20 MIL - where the Qualifying Offer would have paid him $15.8 MIL for just 2016. That is luck for the Los Angeles franchise.

The Dodgers may have overpaid to hold on to Brett Anderson with the Qualifying Offer, however lucked out with Howie Kendrick rejected the QO in November, only to sign for just $4.2 MIL for a 2nd year. The club was able to ink the 31-year-old to a 2 YR/$20 MIL – where the Qualifying Offer would have paid him $15.8 MIL for just 2016. That is luck for the Los Angeles franchise.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part Owner) 

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The Dodgers are running pretty good today with the status quo on the offensive side of the ball anyway.

Since it was agreed on that Howie Kendrick would sign a 2 year deal for $20 MIL – this is an economic win.

1st off, the Dodgers avoided the $15.8 MIL Qualifying Offer they extended their 2015 2B, then only had to pad $4.2 MIL to the total for a 2nd season.

This is a loss financially for Kendrick, who must have thought a multi-year offer of 3 – 4 campaigns must have been out there for the same kind of money that Daniel Murphy signed for (3 years at $12 MIL per AAV).

Howie Kendrick was unfortunately in the same market as Daniel Murphy and also lost another club that could have bid for his services, when the New York Mets traded for Neil Walker. Kendrick is a .293 Career Hitter, but doesn't really have great power for Extra Base Hits. This brought down his value a little. He is till a great professional hitter. I am surprised the Angels didn't come calling for his services - considering the lower AAV.

Howie Kendrick was unfortunately in the same market as Daniel Murphy and also lost another club that could have bid for his services, when the New York Mets traded for Neil Walker. Kendrick is a .293 Career Hitter, but doesn’t really have great power for Extra Base Hits. This brought down his value a little. He is till a great professional hitter. I am surprised the Angels didn’t come calling for his services – considering the lower AAV.

Not only did the Dodgers brass finally reel in their Starting Second Baseman, they were able to add Chase Utley as a backup/quality bench hitter for $7 MIL.  If you combined Kendrick and Utley salaries, it is just $1.2 MIL over what would have happened had Kendrick accepted the QO.

Love Kendrick as a professional hitter.  The man is a .293/.333/.423 career hitter – and his 2015 season closely resembled this at .295/.336/.409 in 2015 for the Dodger Blue.

It shows that the Dodgers management/ownership is also willing to fork out the necessary dollars to keep up their NL West Division prowess.

As the 3 time defending Division Champs,  they are in prime position to challenge the Giants for a 4th year in a row in 2016.

This contract vaults the Dodgers up to around $245 MIL in total team salary in 2016, yet it was a necessary move.

Los Angeles is also staring at a 50% penalty for going over the Luxury Tax Threshold for a 4th straight year.  They will pay around $28 MIL with cash situated as it is now.

For the fans that wanted the organization to dole up for the bigger Free Agents, it is hard to fathom paying that 50% penalty for years upon years at the present rate.

This approach has had the super management team of Andrew Friedman, Farhan Zaidi, Josh Byrnes and newly appointed Alex Anthopoulos under heavy scrutiny, but may work out better in the long run.

Had the club inked Zack Greinke to his $34.42 MIL AAV, that would have put them so far in committed $ over the Luxury Tax, that they would never be able to get under for a reset.

With the 2016 season concluding without a CBA after, it is also wise not to be so far over the Luxury Tax mark when they don’t know what the new deal between the MLBPA and the owners will look like.

2017 has them over $203 MIL in contracts guaranteed to 12 guys already, but 8 players will become Free Agents after the 2016 season, and after 2017’s end comes the best news for Dodger fans.  Andre Ethier and Carl Crawford will finally be off the books!

The Dodgers have a ton of young talent coming into the fold here.  Joc Pederson, Yasiel Puig, Corey Seager, Clayton Kershaw and Kenta Maeda are under team control for a long period of time here.  You still have Julio Urias just coming up to the Major Leagues for service time as well.

The Infield is definitely going to be clogged up with Utley, Enrique Hernandez and Alex Guerrero on the depth chart.  Guerrero is out of options and will need to be kept on the Major League Roster (or be released, waived or DFA’d).

Of course Justin Turner is listed as the Starter at 3B for now.  Micah Johnson and Utley may join Hernandez as guys that could spell him at the hot corner.

Guerrero could also play the OF, but I am sure that Dave Roberts would love to use Scott Van Slyke as 1st on the taxi squad.

Los Angeles has also strengthened its bench with this move.  The one thing they could still use it Relief help.  That may be obtained by signing more Free Agents, or perhaps this may clear the deck for another trade to happen.

The Dodgers were 10th in the NL during 2015 – with a .250 Batting Average, and losing a .293 hitter last year would have been tough for this years lineup.

With Corey Seager for a full year, and a return to prominence for Yasiel Puig, this squad could really put up some runs and improve all facets of the offense.

While the club wasn’t so great at Batting Average, they were 3rd in the Senior Circuit in Slugging Percentage at .413.

One has to also think that Chase Utley will be a lot better in reserve role – compared to his .202/.291/.363 3 Slash Line with the team last year.  I would say he could be 80% like his worst year (prior to 2015), where he hit .259/.344/.425 in 2012.

For the record, baseballreference.com has Utley hitting .247/.315/.398 in 2016.  I am sure the club would take that.

Whether the implementation of a lot of players on the roster – as opposed to having a limited bench and depth if they would have signed Greinke projects well to the upcoming season is yet to be determined. 4

No doubt they are not as strong in the Rotation at the top. But perhaps the addition of Scott Kazmir, the return of Hyun-jin Ryu, Alex Wood for a full year, and a surprise comeback from Brandon McCarthy could pick up the slack.

Signing Kendrick was the right move all day long.  This is one less position with the team having questions for.

The fans are seeing a different management philosophy with the new brass under the tutelage of Andrew Friedman They are taking a big long term picture look. Even though they wasted $90 MIL in dead money last year with questionable decisions, they are trying to clear the deck for many years by dropping the heavy amount of committed dollars. With a new CBA forthcoming, who knows what the new Luxury Tax Threshold will be. At least by keeping the new contracts to smaller years and figures, Los Angeles may be able to drop underneath the limit in 2018 - 2020.

The fans are seeing a different management philosophy with the new brass under the tutelage of Andrew Friedman. They are taking a big long term picture look. Even though they wasted $90 MIL in dead money last year with questionable decisions, they are trying to clear the deck for many years  in the future, by dropping the heavy amount of committed dollars. With a new CBA forthcoming, who knows what the new Luxury Tax Threshold will be. At least by keeping the new contracts to smaller years and figures, Los Angeles may be able to drop underneath the limit in 2018 – 2020.  Right near they are at a 50% penalty for every season they are over the Luxury Tax ($189 MIL) until they get under.

*** The views and opinions expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of mlbreports.com and their other partners.***

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MLB Power Rankings: Early Win Total Predictions For Spring Of 2016

Just because there is parity in the American League it doesn't mean that the Junior Circuit will not club the National League in Interleague this upcoming season. In fact, I am calling for them to be 50 games over .500 versus the Senior Circuit in the AL vs NL schedule. Most of that will be versus the weaker NL clubs, however the better NL clubs will not entirely dominate the whole AL either.

Just because there is parity in the American League it doesn’t mean that the Junior Circuit will not club the National League in Interleague this upcoming season. In fact, I am calling for them to be 50 games over .500 versus the Senior Circuit in the AL vs NL schedule. Most of that will be versus the weaker NL clubs, however the better NL clubs will not entirely dominate the whole AL either.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part Owner) 

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There is parity in the American League and their is a growing distance between the good and the bad clubs in the National League.

One could argue that the top 6 teams (NYM/CHC/SF/WSH/STL/PIT) in all of the Majors reside in the NL right now, and you then you can counter that by saying they have the 6 worst squads as well (PHI/ATL/MIL/CIN/SD/COL).

The funny thing about this whole ordeal is that the AL is absolutely going to cream the NL in Interleague this forthcoming season.  On a 12 year win streak already,  I am predicting a 175 – 125 W – L for the games between both leagues. The AL speedbags the National League in my view.

Last year, the American League held a 167 – 133 mark over the National League so that prediction up there is not foreign by any means. 

Read the rest of this entry

Odds To Win The 2016 MLB World Series

Yoenis Cespedes led all LF for HRs with 35 on the campaign in 2015. He picked a contract year for his best season to date out of the 4 years he has been in the Major Leagues. Cespedes hit 17 HRs with the Mets in 2 months, after smacking out just 18 in the first four months with Detroit. Cespedes finished in the top 40 for both leagues in respective big fly's, and was tied for 13th overall with Manny Machado and David Ortiz.  New York brought him back for at least another year, where he helped the Mets go 34 - 23 down the stretch.  Expect more of the same in 2016.  Mets are the best bet of the week for the 'Fall Classic' value wise.

Yoenis Cespedes led all LF for HRs with 35 on the campaign in 2015. He picked a contract year for his best season to date out of the 4 years he has been in the Major Leagues. Cespedes hit 17 HRs with the Mets in 2 months, after smacking out just 18 in the first four months with Detroit. Cespedes finished in the top 40 for both leagues in respective big fly’s, and was tied for 13th overall with Manny Machado and David Ortiz. New York brought him back for at least another year, where he helped the Mets go 34 – 23 down the stretch. Expect more of the same in 2016. Mets are the best bet of the week for the ‘Fall Classic’ value wise.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part Owner) 

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A couple of things have happened over the last week.  The Mets signed Yoenis Cespedes and no odd was changed after this.  Very strange indeed.

With adding the Cuban slugger, the Mets have almost assured their fanbase for another post season berth in 2016.  This club is more like it was in the last 2 months than it was in the 1st four months.

Even if the Nationals were to have an unbelievable year – the Mets should still make the postseason as the #1 Wild Card seed.

I have the Mets as a 96 win team after this move, with the Nats listed about 93 victories.  Had the Nats picked up Cespedes, I would have given Washington a 95 – 92 win advantage over New York. Read the rest of this entry

Chris Davis (Tied For 19th) + Justin Upton (38th) Join The Top 50 All – Time Salary List

Losing Chris Davis and his 45+ HR power would have been very difficult to replace. The O's have their man with a creative deferral payment plan that will see them pay Davis $119 MIL from 2016 - 2022, and then pay out $42 MIL over the next 15 years in deferrals.

Losing Chris Davis and his 45+ HR power would have been very difficult to replace. The O’s have their man with a creative deferral payment plan that will see them pay Davis $119 MIL from 2016 – 2022, and then pay out $42 MIL over the next 15 years in deferrals.  The $161 MIL has him tied for 19th ALL – Time in MLB Player Contracts with CC Sabathia.  The Orioles slugger led the league with 47 HRs (2nd time in 3 years), and has clubbed 126 HRs (led all of the MLB) in the last 3 seasons despite being levied a 25 game suspension for his medication in Sept of 2014.

Chuck Booth (Owner/Lead  Analyst) 

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Chris Davis, 30 in 2016,  and Justin Upton, 28,  are now in the 9 figure club and among historical contracts of ALL – Time.  Davis inked a 7 YR deal for $161 MIL – while Upton is at 6 Years for $132.75 (distributed evenly throughout.)

The Big 1B/OF for the O’s will make $119 MIL from 2016 – 2022 paid evenly by $17 MIL per year before the crazy deferral program kicks in.  From 2023 – 2030, Davis will earn $3.5 per annum for another $31 MIL.  The deal then goes from 2031 – 2037 at a 1.4 MIL per annum clip.   All told it is $161 MIL spread over 21 years. Read the rest of this entry

Odds To Win The 2016 MLB World Series

By re-signing Alex Gordon - and then providing depth at the Starting Rotation, KC has cemented itself on a playoff spot in 2016. They are still 4 or 5 wins better than Detroit - but health could play a factor there. Still like them better than the AL East clubs cannibalizing each other at the top, and the AL West is a little up in the air between Houston and Texas. +1200 is still a fantastic odd for the team to repeat as World Series Champs.

By re-signing Alex Gordon – and then providing depth at the Starting Rotation, KC has cemented itself on a playoff spot in 2016. They are still 4 or 5 wins better than Detroit – but health could play a factor there. Still like them better than the AL East clubs cannibalizing each other at the top, and the AL West is a little up in the air between Houston and Texas. +1200 is still a fantastic odd for the team to repeat as World Series Champs.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer) 

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Since we last chatted on these odds, the KC Royals have signed Alex Gordon and Ian Kennedy, the Baltimore Orioles have inked Chris Davis – and Detroit settled on a 6 year pact with Justin Upton.

The only club that budged on the odds were the Tigers going from +2500 to +2200.  For the record, I believe that both the Tigers and Royals are great value picks right now.

In doing these deals, both franchises have set themselves up nicely for a postseason berth in this forthcoming year.

I believe with the Upton deal that Detroit is now and 86 – 87 win team.  I firmly think that KC will be the only club in the American League to top 90. Read the rest of this entry

Odds To Win The 2016 MLB World Series

The Nationals were 36 - 25 in the games that Denard Span appeared in for the 2015 year.  He is going to help some offense as a legitimate leadoff man in 2016 who can play a decent CF.  HIs pending departure will be felt significantly more if Jayson Werth has another injury riddled year - or if Michael Taylor can't take the next step in 2016.

The Nationals were 36 – 25 in the games that Denard Span appeared in for the 2015 year. He is going to help  the Giants offense as a legitimate leadoff man in 2016 and can play all 3 positions in the Outfield.  They have 3 decent starting players beyond the grass, and should be able to fill all 162 games with Belt and Blanco also being on the depth chart out there.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer) 

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I absolutely love the Giants Free Agent Signing of Denard Span.  This is a club that has extreme depth in all 3 OF positions now, and Span has worked the role of a Leadoff man brilliantly in the last several years.

Yes between he, Hunter Pence and Angel Pagan they have spent time on the sick bay over the last few years, but when you add that Brandon Belt could play LF, or Gregor Blanco who filled in admirably well in 2015, than you see that the roster just became stronger.

It is for these reasons alone I have finally taken the +900 odd off as one of my worst picks on the betsheet.  This signing definitely tips the scales back in San Frans favor over the Dodgers.

The 1 – 8 lineup looks nice with Span, Joe Panik, Buster Posey, Hunter Pence, Brandon Belt, Matt Duffy, Brandon Crawford and Angel Pagan all capable MLB Starter.  I could see this squad leading the Batting Average in the Majors in the coming year.

While I love the club, the odd at +900 is bang on now. Read the rest of this entry

The Dodgers Should Not Stop Acquiring Players Even After Signing Kazmir And Maeda

Scott Kazmir has revived his career over the last 3 years after seeing it almost end after his days with the Angels. The LHP has gone 32 - 29 record wise, but has dropped in ERA over the last 3 years from 4.04 in 2013 - 3.55 in 2014 - and 3.10 last year for both the A's and Astros. Kazmir, who will turn 32 later this month, signed a 3 Year deal worth $48 MIL that he can opt out after next campaign. If that is the case he will collect $16 MIL in 2016 for salary at hit the open market in a Free Agent class where he could really garner some big dollar offers.

Scott Kazmir has revived his career over the last 3 years after seeing it almost end after his days with the Angels. The LHP has gone 32 – 29 record wise, but has dropped in ERA over the last 3 years from 4.04 in 2013 – 3.55 in 2014 – and 3.10 last year for both the A’s and Astros. Kazmir, who will turn 32 later this month, signed a 3 Year deal worth $48 MIL that he can opt out after next campaign. If that is the case, he will collect $16 MIL in 2016 for salary at hit the open market in a Free Agent class where he could really garner some big dollar offers.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part-Owner) 

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The Dodgers have finally entered the Free Agent Starting Pitchers frenzy this offseason  In two moves over the last week they have inked Scott Kazmir to a 3 YRs/$48 MIL and NPBL stud Kenta Maeda to an 8 year pact – where terms were not disclosed until mid last week ($24 MIL is guaranteed – with incentives on performance that could bring that up to $10 MIL per year) .

These are decent deals to counter what the D’Backs did in picking up former Dodgers hurler Zack Greinke, and then trade for Shelby Miller, while the Giants inked Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija to help bolster both of their clubs.

Read the rest of this entry

San Francisco Giants State Of The Union For 2016

With the club pretty much being set for players all around the Infield and Outfield, and now the Starting Staff, the Giants look poised to make another run at a World Series run for an even year this decade. 2016 will see several of its Bullpen members on the last year of their contracts.

With the club pretty much being set for players all around the Infield and Outfield, and now the Starting Staff, the Giants look poised to make another run at a World Series run for an even year this decade. 2016 will see several of its Bullpen members on the last year of their contracts.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part-Owner) 

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The only real need to upgrade could be at the Outfield level, with either a CF/LF.    Angel Pagan is also in the last year of his deal, so maybe signing a guy to man the position beyond this coming year would be an option.

The Starting Rotation will be a lot stronger in 2016 with the additions of Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija

You can say what you want about Cueto’s time in Kansas City not being as effective., but he has played most of his career in Cincinnati – and pitched extremely well at Great American Ball Park.

Funny enough his best years have also come in even years with finishing 4th in NL Cy Young Voting in 2012, and 2nd   in 2014, when he led the NL in Innings Pitched with 249.2 – and Strikeouts with 241 for the Reds.

Samardzija still has great stuff, and as a #3 Starter, you could see him bouncing back with a nice year in San Francisco. Read the rest of this entry

MLB Power Rankings New Years 2016

Perhaps the Back to the Future Prediction was off by just one year. The Cubs , who are immensely loaded with young offensive superstars added another to the mix with the Jason Heyward signing. Add that to a revamped Bullpen, strong Starters signed last year in Jon Lester and Jason Hammel, coupled with John Lackey this year, and this team is the clear cut #1 ranked team. Oh yeah..They even have depth to make another trade should they need to.

Perhaps the Back to the Future Prediction was off by just one year. The Cubs , who are immensely loaded with young offensive superstars added another to the mix with the Jason Heyward signing. Add that to a revamped Bullpen, strong Starters signed last year in Jon Lester and Jason Hammel, coupled with John Lackey this year, and this team is the clear cut #1 ranked team. Oh yeah..They even have depth to make another trade should they need to.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part-Owner) 

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(1) Chicago Cubs: Big additions of Jason Heyward, Ben Zobrist and John Lackey.  Tonnes of young superstars only ging to get better.

(2) NY Mets:  Starting Pitching best in the Majors.  Offensive depth better in offseason.  Need David Wright to stay healthy.  NL East easiest bottom 3 teams in the bigs.

(3) Kansas City Royals:  Easiest Division in the Majors.  Back to Back AL Pennants and defending World Series Champs.  Look for some more mid year deals. Read the rest of this entry

Odds To Win The American And National League Pennants For 2016

Back to Back AL pennants and this years World Series Winners. They should the biggest favorite to win their respective division so far on the board. As such, should be the favorite to win the AL Pennant as well. franchise has most of the core nucleus all heading for Free Agency before the 2018 season. If I were a fan of this club - I would be okay with the team rebuilding after this, but for now to throw all chips in and try to cash in on a chance for a small dynasty. Dayton Moore and the Brass should use any one of their Minor League Players to acquire the next piece or 2 to make that happen in 2016 and 2017.

Back to Back AL pennants and this years World Series Winners. They should the biggest favorite to win their respective division so far on the board. As such, should be the favorite to win the AL Pennant as well.  They are truly the Rodney Dangerfield club when it comes to respect.  Keep it up fellas, and many gambling sharps will continue to pad their bank account.  Take the +1200 wager to win the American League all day long.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part-Owner) 

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Step right up and plunk down as much money as you can on the Royals.  Tied for 6th in the AL odds, and given what other sports gambling websites are giving the defending champs for a World Series odd, it is an ultimate no brainer.

I can’t wait to see if this gambling establishment also offers a over/under for the club.  It has been fun making money on the Kansas City squad over the last few years.

There is no way that the Indians and Tigers should have parallel wager odds with KC. Read the rest of this entry

Arizona Diamondbacks State Of The Union For 2016

The first big surprise of the winter came when the Diamondbacks signed Zack Greinke. The organization followed that up with trading a heavy price tag to acquire Shelby Miller to back him up. Dave Stewart has taken a lot of crap for a lopsided deal. I think that is very speculative to talk like that. Besides Free Agent Pitchers are expensive, and a way for small market clubs to negate that is to trade for a controllable player. Tony La Russa also knows that his club is setup for a winning window of approximately 3 - 4 years.

The first big surprise of the winter came when the Diamondbacks signed Zack Greinke. The organization followed that up with trading a heavy price tag to acquire Shelby Miller to back him up. Dave Stewart has taken a lot of crap for a lopsided deal. I think that is very speculative to talk like that. Besides Free Agent Pitchers are expensive, and a way for small market clubs to negate that is to trade for a controllable player. La Russa also knows that his club is set up for a winning window of approximately 3 – 4 years.  Keep the aggression when it comes to upgrading this team.

Chuck Booth (Owner/Lead  Analyst) 

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You simply couldn’t have asked for a better start to a winter in 2015 for Arizona.  They are legitimate contenders in the NL West, and still should have the wherewithal to spend another $20 – $25 MIL on salaries for 2016.

I love the aggression set forth by the management.  I hope they keep the pedal to the metal on this one.  A nucleus of a team lasts 3 – 4 years for a mid market club, and by the acquisitions the team has done here completely reflects that.

We have discussed how the Houston Astros developed their young club for a few years now.  It is clearly the best way to rebuild a team.

Another reason why the team has had the financial flexibility to create these maneuvers is that they have Paul Goldschmidt on perhaps the best valued contract in the game of baseball right now.

The other Infielders in the mix for the Diamondbacks need to step up the production for he Arizona squad in 2016.  Whether it is Chris Owings at 2B or Nick Ahmed at SS, these positions were not league average for the slots, as was third base either.

Arizona was carried offensively by Goldschmidt and a great productive OF in A.J. Pollock, David Peralta and Ender Inciarte.

The club dealt Inciarte in the Shelby Miller deal, but could pick up the slack with giving his OF position to Yasmany Tomas full time in 2016.

Welington Castillo was one of the most prolific Catchers in the Majors least year, featuring a 3 slash of .255/.317/.496 with the Diamondbacks, clubbing 17 HRs and knocking in 50 RBI during his 254 AB for the club.

In a roundabout way, he bettered what the club had previously in Miguel Montero, who incidentally was the reason why Castillo was flipped to Seattle initially.

That trade made up for the previous fiasco that was the trade for Mark Trumbo the previous season. Read the rest of this entry

Odds To Win The American And National League For 2016

Back to Back AL pennants and this years World Series Winners. They should the biggest favorite to win their respective division so far on the board. As such, hould be the favorite to win the AL Pennant as well. franchise has most of the core nucleus all heading for Free Agency before the 2018 season. If I were a fan of this club - I would be okay with the team rebuilding after this, but for now to throw all chips in and try to cash in on a chance for a small dynasty. Dayton Moore and the Brass should use any one of their Minor League Players to acquire the next piece or 2 to make that happen in 2016 and 2017.

Back to Back AL pennants and this years World Series Winners. They should the biggest favorite to win their respective division so far on the board. As such, should be the favorite to win the AL Pennant as well. This website has them listed as +1200 to win just their league championship.  This is the best odd on the board for the entire offseason, and I have plunked down $50 on them.  It baffles me how the oddsmakers still give this club no respect.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer/Part-Owner) 

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I can’t express enough on the awesome value that the odds are singing to me right now.  The KC Royals at +1200 when most gambling establishments have this same odd for the World Series?!  Bet this all day long.

If you looked to the last post I did on the League Odds, you will see almost a perfect record of me dissecting the odds.

All 3 favorite odds clubs for the AL are ridiculous. Boston may be right on course for the top ranked Junior Circuit team, but at +450?  No way.  The Rangers and Astros are also not a given to be that high of an odd either.

Toronto is also an excellent odd to wager this week at +850.  Come on guys really. You have them listed at the same odd as the New York Yankees?

The Mariners, Twins and White Sox all have great odds listed for their League Championship totals.  I am not saying they will win, but all have a punchers chance.  Minnesota won 83 games in 2015, and the White Sox and M’s have decent winters thus far from acquiring talent.

Speaking about a shot based on value, the Marlins are listed as +3000 favorites to win the World Series on some sites, yet have been listed as +6000. Read the rest of this entry

Injuries To Pitchers Cost The Most Harm To Teams For Financial Flexibility

Zack Greinke makes $34.4 MIL per year with the Diamondbacks. It represents about 30% of their entire payroll. A lot of small market teams have laid off spending 9 figure contracts on Starting Pitchers because they are more susceptible to breaking down with long term injuries from their arms. 30 MLB Pitchers had Tommy John Surgery in 2015, and that comes with a 12 - 18 months healing period.

Zack Greinke makes $34.4 MIL per year with the Diamondbacks. It represents about 30% of their entire payroll. A lot of small market teams have laid off spending 9 figure contracts on Starting Pitchers because they are more susceptible to breaking down with long term injuries from their arms. 30 MLB Pitchers had Tommy John Surgery in 2015, and that comes with a 12 – 18 months healing period.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer) 

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Player contracts are sure to hit well over he 4 Billion Dollar mark in 2016.  While the war is waged in the trenches of General Managers offices, the MLB will tell you that there is nothing wrong with the current system in baseball in terms of parity.

After all, the Kansas City Royals just won the World Series and they were not a top 10 salaried team.  The Mets also not in the top 10, were in the Fall Classic.

Record 9 figured contracts are being doled out like Benjamin Franklin’s are going out of style.

In 2015, $579 MIL worth of cash was paid out to guys on the Disabled List, and Pitchers took 57.7% of the pie in that category.  Starters were almost worth $248 MIL – and Relief Pitchers took down the other $86 MIL of that.

$334 MIL worth of payroll is about the sum for 3 average teams.  That is a lot of dough spent to guys that only pitch 30 – 34 Starts – or produce just 4 – 70 Innings worth of work in Relief. Read the rest of this entry

Los Angeles Dodgers State Of The Union For 2016

The Dodgers need to start spending money like right now, otherwise they stand to jeopardize themselves winning a 4th straight NL West title in 2016. Both the Giants and D'Backs have signed ace pitchers this year, and added another good Starting Pitcher besides the point. The club does have several young pieces and Depth at Roster to pull off a blockbuster trade forth coming - or they still have enough resources to acquire players for their 2016 run. The clock is officially ticking gentelmen

The Dodgers need to start spending money like right now, otherwise they stand to jeopardize themselves winning a 4th straight NL West title in 2016. Both the Giants and D’Backs have signed ace pitchers this year, and added another good Starting Pitcher besides the point. The club does have several young pieces and Depth at Roster to pull off a blockbuster trade forth coming – or they still have enough resources to acquire players for their 2016 run. The clock is officially ticking gentlemen.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer) 

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The Dodgers are having the same kind of offseason the Baltimore Orioles had in 2014 – going into 2015.

If everyone remembers that year, they rejected a couple year contract with Grant Balfour, when he failed a physical, and they did the same thing with Grady Sizemore.

That club also traded back to back 50 Saves guy Jim Johnson.  By the way, the 2014 O’s won the AL East with a 97 – 65 record.

Key cogs in the wheel were new Closer Zach Britton, and Super Utility man Steve Pearce.  A lot of parallels can be made between that squad and the Dodgers.

Late last week, the Dodgers pulled out of a three year deal wish Hisashi Iwakuma because they had concerns with a physical.

For the whole winter they have watched the Giants sign Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija, while the Diamondbacks stole Zack Greinke way from them, while trading a kings ransom for Shelby Miller. Read the rest of this entry

Sully Baseball Daily Podcast – December 17, 2015

ironman-downey-jr

Marvel Studios

What are the Dodgers up to?

Is the team falling apart and letting the other NL West clubs, like San Francisco and Arizona, take over? Or are they building something that we can’t quite see right now but will be dominating.

It reminds me of Tony Stark in the cave during the first Iron Man movie. He built something powerful right under everyone’s noses and turned failure into victory.

Maybe that’s what the Dodgers are doing.

Avengers Assemble for this episode of The Sully Baseball Daily Podcast.

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Giants Ink Johnny Cueto: It’s Tied For The 37th ALL – Time In MLB Contracts

Johnny Cueto is 97 - 70 (.578) career with a 3.30 ERA however he has put forth a 2.71 ERA since the start of the 2011 year. Much like his new team, Cueto has performed better in the even years of this decade, where he finished 2nd in Cy Young Voting in 2012 and 4th in 2014 Cy Young Voting.

Johnny Cueto is 97 – 70 (.578) career with a 3.30 ERA however he has put forth a 2.71 ERA since the start of the 2011 year. Much like his new team, Cueto has performed better in the even years of this decade, where he finished 2nd in Cy Young Voting in 2012 and 4th in 2014 Cy Young Voting.

Chuck Booth (Owner/Lead  Analyst) 

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The landscape of the NL West just changed again. As of right now I give the Giants as equally a shot to win the NL West as I do the LA Dodgers.  Signing Johnny Cueto is an awesome move.

Even better than the 6 YRs/$130 MIL deal is an opt out clause after 2 years, when Cueto can forego the final 4 years of the pact – leaving the San Fran club with $84 MIL on the table.

The current contract also calls for a Team Option for a 7th year.

Cueto, who is 30, most likely will opt out after 2017 if he can put up great back to back seasons as good as his 2.71 ERA since the start of the 2011 campaign, – only bested by Clayton Kershaw in that time frame.

Read the rest of this entry

Odds To Win The American And National League For 2016

The National League has 4 favorites ahead of the odds on fave Jays to win the 2016 League Pennant. It is a more top heavy league for sure. I am just not sold the Cubs shouldn't be the overwhelming favorite here.

The National League has 4 favorites ahead of the odds on fave Jays to win the 2016 League Pennant. It is a more top-heavy league for sure. I am just not sold the Cubs shouldn’t be the overwhelming favorite here.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer) 

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I love watching the odds fluctuate when deals are made in the Major Leagues.  I often keep my mind on the European Oddsmakers.  There is some hardcore nice value for your buck in betting some cash on the American and National League Pennant winners currently.

The Cubs should be the overall favorite to win both the National League and the World Series.  At +450 this is a fantastic odd.  I am not calling it a best bet of the week though. Read the rest of this entry

Jason Heyward Signs With The Cubs For The 13th Highest Contract In MLB History

Jason Heyward

Chuck Booth (Owner/Lead  Analyst) 

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It has been announced that Jason Heyward has just inked an 8 YR deal with the Chicago Cubs for $184 MIL deal.  The contract calls for a player opt out after 3 years, but for now he is tied with Joe Mauer for 13th overall in total dollars during a deal.

Whether Heyward is worth that kind of dough in AAV is beside the point.  At 26, he was one of the youngest Free Agent players of all time that could garner that type of cash.

No question about the man’s defensive prowess being unique in the game right now.  He has also cut down on the amount of Strikeouts from early in his career. Read the rest of this entry

Odds To Win The 2016 MLB World Series

Pittsburgh had the 2nd best record in the Majors with 98 wins, yet were samarily dismissed in the Wild Card Game by the Cubs - and a lightning hot Jake Arrieta at the time It may actually get worse for the Bucs in coming years with the emergence of the young NL Chicago squad and the continued dominance of the St. Louis franchise. My idea is to spend some money this offseason, but if you are 5 or 6 games behind the playoff bar near the Trade Deadline, to deal all guys on the remainder year of their contracts and to retool for 2017.

Pittsburgh had the 2nd best record in the Majors with 98 wins, yet were simirarily dismissed in the Wild Card Game by the Cubs – and a lightning hot Jake Arrieta at the time. It may actually get worse for the Bucs in coming years with the emergence of the young NL Chicago squad and the continued dominance of the St. Louis franchise. My idea was to spend some money this offseason, but if you are 5 or 6 games behind the playoff bar near the Trade Deadline, to deal all guys on the remainder year of their contracts and retool for 2017.  Instead they have made a boneheaded trade in doling out Neil Walker for Jon Niese this week.  Their odd should not be +1400 as the #3 ranked team in the NL Central.  I don’t think 3 teams qualify for the playoffs out of that Division in 2016.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer) 

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Okay hands up, how many of you followed my advice minutes after the Zack Greinke deal – and pounced on that 40/1 play?  I am happy to say I did, and voila, they jumped from +4000 all the way to+1600.

Sure there was an added bonus of the club picking up Shelby Miller via the trade route – but that is how quickly the odds fluctuate.  The job is to render value.

So far we have given really sound advice on this whole off season.  The first time the new odd was posted we said to stay clear of the Dodgers as the favorite.  Look at them right now – they are considered the 5th favorite in the NL.

Now if you think the Los Angeles franchise is not done on the winter with high priced talent, you can get them at this nice odd.  I personally believe they need to add 1 more #2, #3 starter in addition to the latest Dodgers Hisashi Iwakuma signing – and another premiere Outfielder as well. Read the rest of this entry

Sully Baseball Daily Podcast – December 7, 2015

carl-crawford-andre-ethier

Elsa/Getty Images

The Dodgers had a devastating blow handed to them when Greinke left.

They need to make some moves and for some of them, quantity will matter as much as quality.

And by the way, BACK UP YOUR FILES!

It is a Bleed Dodger Blue episode of The Sully Baseball Daily Podcast.

Read the rest of this entry

Arizona Diamondbacks Payroll In 2016 + Contracts Going Forward

The Diamondbacks didn't have many ling term contracts that carry out big $ - so they were able to throw a whole bunch of dough to sign Zack Greinke to the biggest Annual Average Contract in MLB History. Despite that deal, there maybe more signings and acquisitions on the way with the total team payroll still being under $100 MIL thus far for next campaign.

The Diamondbacks doesn’t have many long term contracts that carry out big $ – so they were able to throw a whole bunch of dough to sign Zack Greinke to the biggest Annual Average Contract in MLB History. Despite that deal, there maybe more signings and acquisitions on the way with the total team payroll still being under $100 MIL thus far for next campaign.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer) 

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So in one signing of Zack Greinke, the Diamondbacks effectively doubled their 2016 salary outlook for the year.  There was a reason Arizona could make such an expensive deal – and it wasn’t just because of their recent TV contract.

The franchise has done a decent job in slashing payroll over the last few years.  They also have the best value on the board with the Paul Goldschmidt contract through 2019.

The big lanky 1B finished runnerup for the MVP in the National League for the second time in 3 years during 2015 – and will only earn $40 MIL over the next four seasons.  Only Andrew McCutchen’s 6 YRs/$51 MIL extension rivals the kind of value the club has received in the league.

Read the rest of this entry

Greinke Signs With Arizona: 12th Best Deal ALL – Time Of 50 MLB Richest Contracts.

Zack Greinke opted of his deal after this season, even though he will stay have nearly $26 MIL per year left on his deal running through 2018. There is no doubt in my mind that LA will probably walk away from Greinke. I base that on the comments from GM Andrew Friedman - who isn't looking to spend a lot of money, and also shed payroll. If the brass is able to pull of some swift financing, they should be able to absorb a ne deal with the RHP, and not have the salary for the club be blown out of proportion.

Zack Greinke opted of his deal (6 YRs/$147.6 MIL) after this last season with the Dodgers, even though he will still nearly $26 MIL per year left on his deal running through 2018. The 32 Year Old has been dynamite since moving to Los Angeles, featuring a 60 – 17 (.779) record with a mid 2 ERA since he was dealt to the Angels in mid 2012 from the Brewers.  He just inked the most lucrative deal ever signed for the MLB in AAV at $34.42 MIL per year.

Chuck Booth (Owner/Lead  Analyst) 

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A collective haymaker punch has just been thrown at the rest of the National League West.  The Diamondbacks have inked Zack Greinke to a 6 YRs/$206.5 MIL pact as of last night.

This is the 3rd richest Pitcher contract ever signed behind David Price‘s 7 YRs/$217 MIL deal – and Clayton Kerhsaw’s extension of 7 YRs/$210 MIL.

It is also the highest Average Annual contract  ahead at $34.42 MIL per season, edging out both Price and Miguel Cabrera at a clip of $31 MIL each a campaign for their respective deals.

Greinke, 32, who finished 2nd in NL Cy Young Voting with an incredible 1.66 ERA in 222.1 IP worth of work in 2015 had opted out of his 6 YRs/$147.5 MIL deal with the Dodgers after just 3 years.

The Right Handed Pitcher left 3 years and $77.5 MIL on the table – and this was the right move as he was slated to earn just under $26 MIL a season for that contract.

This is the 12th richest deal of ALL – Time in the Major Leagues – and is also the 12th player to crack the $200 MIL+ barrier.

Read the rest of this entry

Sully Baseball Daily Podcast – December 5, 2015

la-sp-greinke-shaikin-20151205-001

(Jae C. Hong / Associated Press)

Did you predict Zack Greinke leaving LA for the Diamondbacks? If you answered yes, you are a liar!

The NL West is upside down and Johnny Cueto’s agent is loving it.

Snakes in the desert in this episode of The Sully Baseball Daily Podcast.

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Price With Richest Pitcher Contract In MLB History (8th Best In History): Top 50 ALL – Time Deals

David Price has just inked the most expensive pitcher contract in the history of the MLB. With his and Jordan Zimmermann both hitting the top 50 contracts of ALL - Time in the last week, it has pushed Homer Bailey out of the top 50 deals of all time for chuckers. Right now, there is no one that has had the Tommy John Surgery while having a contract as a pitcher in the top 50. Expect that to change. Which poses the question - are pitchers really worth 9 figure deals?

David Price has just inked the most expensive pitcher contract in the history of the MLB. With his and Jordan Zimmermann both hitting the top 50 contracts of ALL – Time in the last week, it has pushed Homer Bailey out of the top 50 deals of all time for chuckers. Right now, there is no one that has had the Tommy John Surgery while having a contract as a pitcher in the top 50. Expect that to change. Which poses the question – are pitchers really worth 9 figure deals?

Chuck Booth (Owner/Lead  Analyst) 

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David Price just inked the richest deal in MLB history with the Boston Red Sox at 7 YRs/$217 MIL.  It is also the 8th richest contract ever doled out.

The question is whether or not it is a worthy investment to put that much dough on the table for a guy that will progressively decline as the deal goes on.

If you follow our Tommy John Surgery Tracker, you will find that 30 or so pitchers are having their names added to the list.  Last season, the first 9 figured player – and top 50 salaried player had their arm go under a TJ Surgery in Home Bailey.

The time is coming again when an even higher profile pitcher will have to go down with it while his name is on a pact for a huge 9 figure salary.

it is the main reason why some clubs just can’t afford the risk.  Boston has the funds to do this, and this clearly was the prudent move for the franchise to do after losing out on Jon Lester last season.

Most of the Starting Pitchers have not seen better years with their names on this list like Justin VerlanderFelix HernandezMatt CainBarry ZitoCole HamelsCC Sabathia and Mike Hampton. Read the rest of this entry

San Francisco Giants Payroll In 2016 + Contracts Going Forward

The Giants have won the World Series in 2010, 2012 and 2014 recently. A lot of the core is still intact for 2016 - and they could add in Free Agency over the winter, while the Dodgers may not be as formidable in 2016 either. With some flexibility coming in the forms of finances, the San Fran club should spend what they can in 2016 - go for another few premiere players, before trying any form of rebuilding afterwards. The Giants finished the 2015 season a disappointing 83 - 79 - which continued their odd curse.

The Giants have won the World Series in 2010, 2012 and 2014 recently. A lot of the core is still intact for 2016 – and they could add in Free Agency over the winter, while the Dodgers may not be as formidable in 2016 either. With some flexibility coming in the forms of finances, the San Fran club should spend what they can in 2016 – go for another few premiere players, before trying any form of rebuilding afterwards. The Giants finished the 2015 season a disappointing 84 – 78 – which continued their odd year curse.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer) 

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Yep.  The Giants are heading into an even year this decade – and will try for a fourth time in a row to become World Champions.

The 1st thing we look at when it comes to payroll is how much a team has in guaranteed contracts.  So far for next year, this sum is $128.1 MIL for 11 players.

Jake Peavy, Angel Pagan, Santiago Casilla and Javier Lopez are on the last year of their individual pacts and are not on the payroll beyond this year. Read the rest of this entry

Odds To Win The 2016 MLB World Series

The Twins finished 2nd in the AL Central and could be the Houston Astros type of 2015 club in 2016. If you think they can finish 2nd in the AL Central one more time, it may be enough to secure a Wild Card Spot. I think the AL East will beat each other up - and will only produce one playoff team in 2016.

The Twins finished 2nd in the AL Central and could be the Houston Astros type of 2015 club in 2016. If you think they can finish 2nd in the AL Central one more time, it may be enough to secure a Wild Card Spot. I think the AL East will beat each other up – and will only produce one playoff team in 2016.  At +3500, there is enough off an odd to work with.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer) 

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So the offseason has started in the MLB – and the oddsmakers are doing their odds before any sweeping changes have occurred for clubs.

Some of the best bets you can do are based on your own speculation on how you think teams are going to do.

I don’t like many of the teams odds once you past the 25/1 barrier to win the World Series.  The only club I would even stab at – to hedge later – is the Minnesota Twins.

Once again the 2015 Standings don’t seem to mean much for the AL Central.  The Twinkies managed to finish second in the Division with 83 win – despite playing the 1st half without Ervin Santana and power slugging rookie Miguel Sano.

I am not suggesting the Indians don’t deserve to be the 2nd favorite in the AL Central either.  It is just the discrepancy between the Tribe and the Twins is too far.  Even the Tigers are at +2500 (which is about right). Read the rest of this entry

Sully Baseball Daily Podcast – November 23, 2015

Fox Sports/MLB

Fox Sports/MLB

The Red Sox fan in me is thrilled to see Dave Roberts take over the role as Dodger manager.

It means they are going to play his stolen base in the 2004 ALCS on a loop.ring to his collection.

He has his work cut out for him in LA, but if he does his job, he could add another

It is a turn around to a title  episode of The Sully Baseball Daily Podcast.

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On The Trading Block In The NL East

The Phillies have not had a winning season since 2011 after putting forth a decade straight of them. A promising second half to the season - couple with full seasons by Aaron Nola and Maikel Franco could have them inch closer back to achieving that mark in the next few years.

The Phillies have not had a winning season since 2011 after putting forth a decade straight of them. A promising second half to the season – couple with full seasons by Aaron Nola and Maikel Franco could have them inch closer back to achieving that mark in the next few years.

Jordan Gluck (Part Owner/Featured Writer): 

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On the Trading Block NL East

Atlanta Braves: The Braves have quite a few players that they can trade and under John Hart you don’t know what direction they will go in this offseason.

Can they be in a position to compete moving into the new Sun Trust Stadium next year or is it a longer term rebuild

I think this team really isn’t 2 bad and could compete for a wild card this season with the addition of a 3B (Rio Ruiz?) and consistent starting pitching.

However it is clear their sights are not set on this season but on the future as indicated by their trade of Andrelton Simmons. Read the rest of this entry

Its Time For Boston To Break From Philosophy + Sign An Ace: Red Sox State Of The Union 2016

The Red Sox will need to spend some money on Pitching this season. But don't be surprised if they overstock on a few more offensive pieces in the lineup, and then use some of their prospects to obtain even more pitching. They orchestrated a trade for Closer Craig KImbrel on Friday. A bona fide shutdown guy with 225 Career Saves and an ERA of 1.63 lifetime. The winter has just started for the Beantowners.

The Red Sox will need to spend some money on Starting Pitching this season – and preferably and ace.. They orchestrated a trade for Closer Craig Kimbrel on Friday. A bona fide shutdown guy with 225 Career Saves and an ERA of 1.63 lifetime. The winter has just started for the Beantowners.  With many veterans currently aging, and the young nucleus all being under team control, the time to capitalize on the higher drafting as a result of finishing last in the AL East 3 times in 4 years is right now.

Hunter Stokes (Chief Writer) 

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Okay, for years the Boston Red Sox would never pay for a #1 Starter on the Free Agent Market – even their owns. They traded away Jon Lester prior to trying to resign him in 2014, and it backfired on them when he hit the Free Agency market not having played his entire career in Boston.

For the most part, I have agreed with the idea of not paying a guy as an ace.  Here is the problem..The team had finished last in the AL East 3 of the last four campaigns, and that is unacceptable.

You add in Ben Cherington doling out long term deals to Rick Porcello, Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval in the last year, and all had bad years.  So the temptation may not be to sign anyway.  Again, wrong.. You are the Boston Red Sox.

Well mired in the lower tiers of records the last 4 years (except for the 2013 season), the club has accumulated a great deal of talent in the Minor Leagues.

The franchise is in great shape heading forward, but this comes down to the right time to strike on the rest of the league. Read the rest of this entry

MLB Top Free Agent Predictions (Picks 1 – 25)

The Red Sox will need to spend some money on Pitching this season. But don't be surprised if they overstock on a few more offensive pieces in the lineup, and then use some of their prospects to obtain even more pitching. They orchestrated a trade for Closer Craig KImbrel on Friday. A bona fide shutdown guy with 225 Career Saves and an ERA of 1.63 lifetime. The winter has just started for the Beantowners.

The Red Sox will need to spend some money on Pitching this season. But don’t be surprised if they overstock on a few more offensive pieces in the lineup, and then use some of their prospects to obtain even more pitching. They orchestrated a trade for Closer Craig Kimbrel on Friday. A bona fide shutdown guy with 225 Career Saves and an ERA of 1.63 lifetime. The winter has just started for the Beantowners.

Jordan Gluck (Part Owner/Featured Writer)

Follow The MLB Reports On Twitter 

MLB Free Agent Predictions

I will be using mlbtraderumors.com top 50 free agents to make things easy. To be clear there are other free agents outside this list (some who I think should be on it) who will be available and many could have breakout or comeback seasons.

Additionally there will be players that get non tendered during arbitration. Well so here are my predictions.

 

Read the rest of this entry

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