Blog Archives
Did Braun and Verlander Deserve Their MVP Awards?
Wednesday November 23, 2011
Sam Evans: Over the last two days, Major League Baseball announced their 2011 MVPs. Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers took home the award in the American League while Ryan Braun of the Milwaukee Brewers won the National League award. Now that the voting is over, we can look at who really deserved the awards.
American League MVP: In August, Buster Olney sparked discussion on the AL MVP, when he said on Twitter that if he had a vote it would go to Verlander. At the time, I thought that the award was Jose Bautista‘s to lose. However, after watching Verlander dominate team after team, it became clear to me that this was the most valuable player in the American League. He meant more to his team than any other player in the league. Verlander finished with a with a 2.40 ERA in 251 innings. Verlander threw more innings than any other pitcher in the majors, and to have that strong of numbers in those innings makes it even more impressive.
Verlander also threw his second career no-hitter this year, and led the majors in strikeouts. Jacoby Ellsbury and Jose Bautista are not shabby candidates either, but they didn’t have the effect Verlander did on his team. The Tigers expected to win every single time that Verlander was on the mound. Overall, even if the BBWAA made this decision based on Verlander’s twenty-four wins, it was the right choice. Verlander became the first pitcher to win the MVP since Dennis Eckersley in 1992.
National League MVP: In somewhat of a surprising decision, Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun was awarded the NL MVP award, receiving 20 out of 32 first place votes, and a total of 388 points. Finishing a close second was Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp, who received 10 first place votes, and a total of 332 points.
First of all, these were obviously the top two candidates. They both had amazing years that should not go unnoticed despite who actually won the award. What I think it came down to was that Braun made the playoffs and Kemp didn’t. This is somewhat understandable because you can make the argument that if a certain player had such a big impact on their team then they should have made the playoffs. The real question is did Braun really make his team that much better, or did he just play on a much better team? Also, did the distractions surrounding the Dodgers and its ownership affect Kemp’s chances of winning the MVP? It definitely did not help his case.
To truly compare these players first you have to evaluate their defense. Kemp played a much harder position then Braun and he had to cover more ground. Kemp had a UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating, a stat used to show how much ground a player covers) of -4.6. Braun had a UZR of -3.8. Neither of these is very impressive, so I guess we can just call this comparison a draw.
As for offense, in my own opinion, Kemp had a stronger year. Both players were very similar in normal statistics. Braun hit .332 with 33 HR and 111 RBI. Kemp hit .324 with 39 HR and 126 RBI. What impresses me is that Kemp scored more runs than Braun despite not having Prince Fielder batting behind him. Also, Kemp had a harder ballpark to hit in, and plays in a stronger pitching division. Kemp was really the only dangerous hitter in the Dodgers lineup, so pitchers could avoid him more than Braun.
According to Baseball-Reference WAR, Kemp was by far the more valuable player. Kemp led the NL with 10.0 WAR, which make Braun’s 7.7 seem miniscule. Kemp also led the National League in total bases, with 353, and Adjusted OPS + with 171.
These two players had almost identical years. If I had a vote, it would have gone to Kemp. But I don’t think Braun winning is anything to get worked up about. A strong case could have been made for him, as shown by Braun being the winner of the 2012 NL MVP award.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Sam Evans. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Sam on Twitter.***
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Sam Evans. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Sam on Twitter.***
Projecting MLB Sluggers: The Top 5 in 2012
Tuesday November 22, 2011
Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst – MLB reports): Accompanied with my projections and analysis, I profile the top-five fantasy baseball sluggers to target for 2012. I encourage your thoughts and feedback!
1. Ryan Braun
2012 Projections: .321 38 HR 119 RBI 108 R 32 SB
Given that he is at the prime of his career having just turned 28 on November 17, Ryan Braun ranks at the top of the list. He is the complete package and enjoyed a 2011 season that had fantasy owners drooling and was named the 2011 NL MVP today! He was a machine in all five of the standard fantasy categories with a .332 average, 33 home runs, 111 RBI’s, 109 runs and 33 SB’s. The exciting thing is that the will only continue to get better. The home run total has the potential to reach 40 and I don’t see reason why Braun won’t steal 30 bases again. Braun is by no means one of the speediest players baseball, but he is truly one of the smartest base runners. He steals at a career success rate of 80% and was only caught 6 times in 2011. Some people wonder about the effect that Prince Fielder’s potential departure will have on Braun, but I am not overly concerned. Braun is truly a special and hall of fame caliber player because he not only possesses all of the physical tools, but also is one of the game’s smartest players. He continually makes adjustments and just has such an impressive knowledge of the game that allows him to better utilize his talents than others.
2012 Projections: .312 39 HR 120 RBI 117 R 12 SB
Albert Pujols has been the best fantasy player in baseball since he emerged onto scene in 2001. Ten Ruth-like seasons later, the slugger might find himself in a new uniform. Furthermore, his somewhat “down” season in 2011 has caused concern for many fantasy owners. But before we expect an A-rod-like decline, lets take a closer look at the numbers. Through the Cardinal’s first 54 games, Pujols batted .257 with 8 home runs and 28 RBI. That means in the team final 108 games, which included the time missed with the wrist injury, he batted .322 with 29 home runs and 71 RBI’s. That is the Pujols that we have all been accustomed to over the last decade. I will not go into detail explaining just how good Pujols has been throughout his career because you should already know by now. Last year was the first season he did not put up .300 30 HR and 100 RBI. He missed this feat by one RBI and one point of average, in a season that included an uncharacteristic 50 game stretch (contract issues?). I expect Pujols to be back in St. Louis next season, and all though he well on the back nine of his career, he is still too good and has a lot left in the tank. Expect the usual numbers, the type that he continued to put up despite his slow start to the season in 2011.
2012 Projections: .336 34 HR 122 RBI 109 R 2 SB
Did you know that Miguel Cabrera is only 28 years old? I sure didn’t. He has been an offensive force for almost a decade. In my mind, he is the game’s best pure hitter and will only continue to get better. He managed to have another elite season in 2011, despite all the controversy and off the field issues he had to deal with. He continues to improve at the plate and BB right is on the incline while his K rate declines. For these reasons, and his career .317 average, there is no reason to not expect his average to hover around .330. He is an average anchor for your lineup that will also exceed 30 HR and 100 RBI’s and runs. The only thing he does not do is steal bases. However, refer to my article last week, Cabrera is the type of average and power anchor that can allow your team roster a space for the one-trick ponies, i.e. Michael Bourn. Overall, just expect more of the same from Cabrera: which means elite production in four of the five standard fantasy categories, average, runs, home runs, and runs batted in.
4. Matt Kemp
2012 Projections: .296 33 HR 108 RBI 103 R 34 SB
At 27 years of age, Matt Kemp is also just entering his prime. He missed a 40/40 season by just one home run and batted .326 and drove in 126 runs, which led to being the runner-up for the 2011 NL MVP award. However, he is easily the most difficult to predict on the list. If I expected him to improve upon or even just repeat his 2011 season, he would be at the top of the list. We simply cannot expect Kemp to be this fantasy-tastic again in 2012. Matt Kemp’s .380 BABIP lead all of major league baseball, however he does hold a career .352 clip, which is tops in baseball. Therefore, expect regression in his batting average in the .290-.300 range. Kemp also strikes out a lot, not like in 2010, but he still struck out in 23 percent of his at bats in 2011. When you are not putting the ball in play at a high rate, there is potential for a lot of volatility. Given his skill set, 2011 was essentially a best-case scenario for Kemp. The other four guys on the list make contact much more consistently and therefore have been more consistent throughout the career and are easier to project forward. Furthermore, I am not encouraged by the line up around built around Kemp. He is still elite, but it is unwise to expect him to repeat 2011. He will come down to earth but still provide across the board value for your team.
5. Joey Votto
2012 Projections: .316 32 HR 112 RBI 115 R 11SB
At 28 years of age, Joey Votto is also in the prime of his career. His 2011 season, with heavy expectations after an MVP season, was a down season for Votto. A down season in which he batted .309 29 HR 103 RBI 8 SB. And if this type of season is Votto’s worst-case scenario, you can live with it! However, given his age and peripheral stats, all signs point to an improved season for Votto in 2012. Votto is a pure hitter who continues to gain better command over strike zone, as his walk rate his increased steadily in each of the four last seasons. The average will always be there for Votto, just a notch below Cabrera. The biggest concern for fantasy owners was the drop in power, form 37 to 29 home runs. However, Votto hit the ball in the air more often in the second half of the season and hit 16 post all-star HR’s in 260 at-bats, compared to just 13 in his 339 at-bats before the break. Furthermore, his .222 ISO was well below his 2010 season (.276) and career average of .237. Therefore, expect him to bounce back to the 35 HR territory with elite average. The true wildcard for Votto is what he does on the basepaths. He stole just 8 bases in 2011, but if he puts a greater emphasis on running like he did in 2010, with 16 stolen bases, then he has the potential to provide extreme five-category value to your roster.
Honorable Mention:
Jacoby Ellsbury: His .230 ISO in 2011 (career .152) explains his surprise 30-home run season. Ellsbury’s peripheral indicate he will be more of a .300 20 HR 80 RBI 40 SB type players, making him a notch below Braun and Kemp.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Fantasy Baseball Analyst, Peter Stein. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Peter on Twitter (@peterWstein).***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter (@MLBreports) and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Should Dale Murphy be Elected into Cooperstown?
Sam Evans: Dale Murphy was one of the best baseball players of the 1980′s. He played in 2180 games, hit .265, with 398 home runs. Now, after twelve years of eligibility, Murphy still has not been voted into the Hall of Fame.
Dale Murphy was not a dominant player during his era. He was a very good player, he won two MVP’s and five straight gold gloves. However, when you look back at his two “peak” years, he only posted a 6.1 WAR in those years combined. We can’t fully be sure of WAR’s (wins above replacement) ability to fully show the defensive prowess of players, but either way that is not impressive enough for a Cooperstown candidate.
On the field, Murphy was an inspiration to others. He truly looked like he wouldn’t rather be anywhere else in the world. Off the field, he wasn’t any different. Just ask Joe Torre, who had this to say about Murphy, “If you’re a coach, you want him as a player. If you’re a father, you want him as a son. If you’re a woman, you want him as a husband. If you’re a kid, you want him as a father. What else can you say about the guy?” Murphy truly was an American hero as evidenced by his Lou Gehrig award and Roberto Clemente award.
From 1980 to 1989, Murphy had more total bases than anyone in the majors. He had a perplexing career in terms of statistics. He never dominated any one category. A typical season from Murphy would look along the lines of: 30 HR, 90 RBI, 130 K, 15 SB, and a .265 AVG. That is a pretty good year by all standards. The player that was most similar to this stat line in 2011, was Jay Bruce of the Cincinnati Reds.
Let’s make one thing clear. Based on his statistics alone, Dale Murphy is definitely not a Hall of Famer. A 44. WAR is not enough for a Hall of Famer. That is in fact less than Red Sox fourth outfielder J.D. Drew. However, if you want to make a case for Murphy’s election by including his contributions to the game of baseball off the field, I can see a stronger case for his candidacy.
Last year, Murphy received only 12.6% of the BBWAA voted for the Hall. He has a long ways to go, in terms of voting, and not a lot of time to do it. I really am indifferent to whether or not Dale Murphy is Hall of Famer. If he makes it in, I will be pleased that his great character and steady numbers had been noticed. The bottom line is that regardless of whether he is eventually elected into Cooperstown, Dale Murphy should always be remembered as a tremendous player that truly was a role model to kids and adults who followed his career. Even if he does not fit the Cooperstown mold, he was one of the top players of his generation and should be regarded as a strong role model for future wave of Major League Baseball players to come.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Sam Evans. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Sam on Twitter.***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan onFacebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Ask the Reports: Saturday November 19th
Saturday November 19, 2011
Jonathan Hacohen: Ask the Reports is back! After some thought and re-branding: we have decided to drop the E-mailbag moniker and to keep this section as “Ask the Reports”, which will appear every weekend. E-mails is but one form you can reach MLB reports. You can follow us on Twitter and tweet and direct message your questions and comments. You can “Like” us on Facebook and write on our wall. You can also leave all questions and comments at the end of each article and page on the website. With social media exploding as it has, we are truly connected in so many ways.
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Let’s get to your questions:
A: I could see Burrell taking time off from the game. Counting his dollars and maybe taking in a party or two (rumor has it that he is somewhat of a ladies’ man…). But given his quality eye at the plate with pop, Burrell clearly knew a thing or two about hitting in his day. Almost 300 home runs and 1000 walks do not happen by accident. When Pat the Bat is ready to return to the game, he will join the Giants or Phillies likely as a minor league hitting instructor, or full-time hitting coach. If he can show he can coach in the minors, you could see him as a hitting coach or 1st base coach one day in the major leagues. Pat the Bat has a future in baseball- provided that he can teach and work well with the kids in helping them develop their abilities at the plate.A: They did call Matt Kemp “Baby Manny” for a reason. The Bison has always been highly touted coming up with the Dodgers. For the last 2 seasons going into this year, some of that promise was starting to show. Campaigns with 26 and 28 home runs respectively will catch people’s eyes. Kemp looked like a .290 hitter with 20+ home run pop. Pretty good- but not a superstar. Then in 2011, Kemp simply exploded. He led the league with 39 home runs and 126 RBIs, a difficult feat considering he had little support in the lineup and played his home games in a pitcher’s park. With a .324 average, we nearly had a triple crown winner. Kemp had a .399 OBP and .586 SLG. Superstar numbers. I am torn in analyzing him. He was a year away from free agency. Is he worth $20 Million per year for 8 years? That is all relative. Here is how I can best put it: what if Kemp would have hit .290, with 25 home runs with 90 runs and 90 RBIs in 2012 and hit free agency? Would he have received the same deal? Very likely. At that point would the Yankees or Red Sox given him 7 years and $140 million to sign? Carl Crawford got that same deal last year. At 28 years of age, Kemp has shown good health and appears to be in great shape. To say he is able to keep this pace until 35-years of age is not a stretch. At worst, Kemp would have landed $15 million per season for 7 years, a total of $105 million. So my thoughts are that the Dodgers would have needed to pay him $20 million for 2012 regardless. By signing him early, they may have overpaid by $35 million over the life of the deal. Or Kemp could have signed for $5 million per season on the open market (if no other alternatives) and cost an additional $35 million. In a perfect world, it would have been nice to have seen more 2011-type seasons from Kemp before handing him this type of contract. But given his fairly strong track record, health and young age, the Dodgers needed to lock him up now or risk very much losing him after 2012? Did they overpay? Not much by free agency standards. Even if they overpaid by $30 million over the life of the contract, as long as Kemp continues to stay healthy and produce great to strong numbers, this was a deal that had to get done. With the ownership turmoil and inability to attract and keep key players, this signing sends a message that the Dodgers are “back in business.” Exactly what the fans want to hear.
A: There are approximately fans from 30 MLB teams that are hoping their teams will make a push for the 2 likely biggest international free agents. Yu Darvish from Japan and Yoennis Cespedes from Cuba. While Darvish will need to be posted and bid upon, Cespedes once declared would be free to sign with any team. At 26-years of Cespedes is reported to be major league ready. Viewers of his YouTube video are excited at his abilities at the plate. He will reportedly cost in the $50 million range to sign. Darvish, at 25-years of age, is one of the most highly touted pitchers ever to come from Japan. If he is posted (which is still a big-if at this stage), Darvish is likely to cost north of $100 million (with the posting fee) to sign. Will the Jays sign either or both? My answer: no. Not because the team is not competitive. Far from it. But because they will not throw a lot of money on risky propositions. Neither player has played a single inning of Major League Ball. No matter how each has fared competitively to-date, few could predict how their games will translate to the major leagues. The Jays are already stacked in the oufield, with Bautista, Rasmus, Snider and Thames to choose from. Edwin Encarnacion is even being tried out in the outfield in winterball. Anthony Gose is also a young hot-shot prospect that will be landing in Toronto soon. The Jays do not have a strong need for an outfielder and certainly will not want to devote a large portion of their budget to an unknown like Cespedes. Especially given the mixed track record of Cuban hitters thus far in the majors. The Jays’ budget would be better spent on pitching. But to pay $50 million to win the Darvish posting and then sign him for another $50 million, that could translate to $20 million per season for 5 seasons. That is insanity money. At that point, I would rather sign C.J. Wilson for 5-years $100 million. A far more certain return. The Jays will pick up a strong DH bat this offseason, perhaps a new first baseman and 1-2 new starting pitchers. They will be shopping. But no mail-order-players are likely coming anytime soon to Toronto.
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Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen)
Time Has Come For the Royals to Trade Soria
Tuesday November 15, 2011
MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen: With the free agency season in full swing, some teams may not be happy with the sticker prices on available players. Especially when it comes to pitching, including closers. Jonathan Papelbon recently grabbed $50 million from the Phillies and reports have Ryan Madson looking at a deal in the $40 million range. These figures make existing closers signed to reasonable deals an attractive trade commodity, despite the amount of available relief pitchers on the market. There may be a quantity of closers, but certainly not quality. Outside of Mariano Rivera and Papelbon, there are few sure-fire closers currently in baseball. Enter Joakim Soria of the Kansas City Royals.
A 2-time All-Star, Soria has put up some impressive numbers in his 5 seasons in Kansas City. Two seasons of 40+ saves, Soria has a career 2.40 ERA and 1.043 WHIP. Soria will only be 28 next year and could theoretically be a building block for the next few seasons in Kansas City. However, closers are generally considered to be foundational players. Soria is no exception. 2011 was his most difficult seasons in the majors, as he did save 28 games but put up a 4.03 ERA and 1.276 WHIP (all career worsts). Soria is signed for $6 million this coming season and has 2 more team options at roughly $8 million per season. The Royals are faced with a decision: hold onto their star closer, or cash in while his market is at its peak.
The Royals are on the way up. No doubt about it. Mike Moustakas, Erik Hosmer, Wil Myers, John Lamb and company are expected to come together at the same time to make the Royals the next powerhouse squad. By my estimation, they should be World Series contenders by 2015. But with a couple of more seasons of growing pains ahead, can they afford the luxury of Soria? My argument is no. Soria’s salary in 2012 is still considered a “deal”, but from 2013 go-forward at $8 million, the Royals would be wise to spend their salary dollars in other areas. There are still holes to fill on the squad, including 1-2 more bats and starting pitching. The team will also need to lock up some of its young star players early to avoid unaffordable contract demands down the road. Joakim Soria can bring back a nice haul to fill needs and stock the team for a future championship. The team needs to be realistic of where it is today, where it is going in the future and the players it needs to get there.
The Royals also have options to replace Soria. Aaron Crow (if he is not moved into the rotation) and Tim Collins could all get a shot. Luke Hochevar, who has been hot/cold during his career in the rotation may eventually settle into the bullpen. Options are there. Heck, the Royals plunked Soria from the Rule-5 draft and transformed him from a Padres outcast into a star closer. With the risk of injury and ineffectiveness always hanging over closers, the Royals may be gambling if they hang onto Soria much longer. Another season like 2011 could severely damage his trade value, while he could bring in a nice crop of 2-3 prospects if traded this offseason. The Royals need to do some soul-searching and realize that Soria is worth more in a trade than on their roster.
Teams will surely line-up if Joakim Soria is made available. The Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, Angels, Tigers, Rangers, Nationals and Cardinals would all surely inquire as to his availability. From all reports, the Yankees and Blue Jays are the strongest contenders to land the Royals closer. Don’t get me wrong- I am a Joakim Soria fan. I believe the kid is immensely talented and has the talent and determination to remain a top MLB closer for another decade (health permitting). But on a losing ballclub that is rebuilding, Joakim Soria is a luxury that the Royals simply cannot afford. If the team has to trade a Moustakas or Hosmer given their budget but retain Soria, that would be a big mistake in my estimation. The team needs to build for 2015- not 2012. This offseason represents a golden opportunity for the Royals to continue to replenish its roster and fill more holes. The Melky Cabrera for Jonathan Sanchez was that type of step in the right direction. If Melky was a Prince, it is time for the Royals to flip their King for a pair of Wild Cards. It could prove to be their ultimate winning hand.
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen)
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Phillies Sign Papelbon Over Madson: The Stare Arrives in Philadelphia
Saturday November 12, 2011
MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen: The Philadelphia Phillies seemingly fooled everyone this week. Earlier in the week, reports indicated that the team had locked up its incumbent closer, Ryan Madson for a 4-year, $44 million contract which could climb all the way up to a $57 million deal with an additional option year. Reactions were for the most part negative, as the baseball world could not believe that the team would pay (overpay) for a reliever coming off his first season as a full-time closer by handing out one of the largest contracts ever to a non-starting pitcher. At that money, people began to wonder why the Phillies did not seek out the best closer on the market and one of the best overall in the game, Jonathan Papelbon. The Red Sox closer, after endless 1-year pacts with Boston was in his first free agency period in 2011. But then something interesting happened. The Madson deal, which required the approval of the team’s higher brass all of a sudden was delayed and then fell apart. A couple of days later, Papelbon became a Philly! At 4-years and $50 million, Jonathan Papelbon finally received the long-term deal he has craved all of these years and Philadelphia signed a lock-down closer. But what happened? How did the Phillies switch to Papelbon mid-stream after coming so far along in negotiations with Madson?
The marketing term for what the Phillies did is called a “bait and switch”, meant when a retailer will advertise a discounted product and will then offer you a higher priced replacement when you arrive at the location to find that the advertised good has mysteriously sold out. Often, that discounted good was never actually available, but was a merely a ploy to get the consumer to first get to the store and secondly, buy a more expensive product. In the case of the Philadelphia Phillies, I do not believe that the team ever planned on signing Ryan Madson to the reported high-end contract. While being groomed to be a future for many seasons, the team was never completely sold on his true sustainability at the position. While Madson received the occasional closing opportunities in his 8-year career leading up to 2011, he actually converted only 20 saves going into this season. But something funny happened this season. Madson became solid. So solid, that he saved 32 games with a 2.37 ERA and 1.154 WHIP. With Scott Boras as his agent, the Phillies knew that Madson would not come cheap. But the Phillies faithful for the most part loved Madson and would mourn his departure. The Phillies needed to secure themselves at the closer position while softening the blow of not signing Ryan Madson. The team’s actions this week were a stroke of genius and the team played its cards perfectly.
The plan for 2011 was to have Brad Lidge close for 1 more season, with Ryan Madson as the set-up man and fill-in closer. In the offseason, the Phillies were going to target Jonathan Papelbon and sign him to a large pact. But Lidge was injured and ineffective in 2011, forcing the Phillies to use Madson as their primary closer for most of the season. The reliever that they were hoping to sign for a reasonable 3-years, $21-$24 million deals was about to cost them almost double to retain. But how could the team sign another reliever and let their incumbent closer go? Simple. Propose a deal with Ryan Madson and float the scenario out to the public to record and evaluate the reaction of the public. The possibility existed that the fans, writers and analysts would applaud the deal, in which case the Phillies could consider actually proceeding with it. But in all likelihood, the team knew that the outcry would be against the deal. By then pulling the Madson deal and reaching out to sign Papelbon, the approval rating would be through the roof. It is almost the same as proposing a 20% tax hike and then only increasing taxes by 5%. Throw out a worst-case scenario and set expectations low- then substitute a better plan and watch people jumping for joy.
The Phillies in my estimation used Ryan Madson as a pawn. While Scott Boras has been the master for years at playing teams against one another to benefit the pocketbook of his clients, the Phillies in this case used Boras and Madson to get what they wanted. If the Phillies had gone out right away at the start of free agency to sign Jonathan Papelbon, fans and critics would have blasted the team for overpaying and proposing that the team should have kept Ryan Madson at a hometown discount. The Phillies were able to eliminate such sentiments by showing that Madson would have cost them top dollar to stay put. At an additional $1.5 million per season for the same 4-year contract, the Phillies replaced a closer with 1 full year of closing experience with a closer (Papelbon) who is the same age (31), has 6 full years of full-time closing experience in one of baseball’s biggest and highest pressure markets (Boston) of 30+ saves per season, to go along with an almost perfect postseason resume. The Phillies traded in a solid Buick for a Mercedes, with still plenty of mileage to be driven.
For those of you that may doubt the “conspiracy theory”, just take a close look at the Phillies rotation. Since Spring Training, I have been calling for the Phillies to sign Papelbon. The team has shown to seek out the best pitchers on the market and bring them on board. Roy Halladay. Cliff Lee. Now Jonathan Papelbon. When the Phillies go shopping for pitching, they do not shop in the bargain bin. Aside from obtaining Mariano Rivera, the team signed the best available closer for their staff. So while Ryan Madson would have been a nice luxury to keep on the staff for insurance and to set-up, the team knew it would be seeking Jonathan Papelbon all the way. The plan would have worked to have both Papelbon and Madson on the team, had Madson not closed out so many games this past season. As a middle reliever setting-up, his contract would have been affordable. But an outstanding closing record in 2011 along with Scott Boras as his agent, meant that Madson was priced out of the Phillies budget. With Papelbon set to come on board, there would be no room for Madson.
The Phillies faithful have to be pleased today. While they will miss Ryan Madson, most will know that there was no guarantees he could duplicate his numbers over the life of a 4-5 year contract. At the numbers that were tabled for him to stay in Philadelphia, the team by all accounts did the right thing to sign the superior Papelbon. While he will cost the team its 2012 first-round pick, a pick should be recovered, along with a supplemental pick, when Madson is signed by another team. The cost/benefit of this move was essentially a no-brainer. The Phillies went with more of a sure-thing by signing Papelbon. While there are no guarantees in baseball, especially with pitchers (arm problems) and especially closers (who can lose their jobs at a moment’s notice), Jonathan Papelbon is as money in the bank as they come.
A couple of last points that helped trigger the change of closers. By continually signing 1-year deals in Boston, many expected Papelbon to bolt once he was eligible for free agency. The team could not lock the player down to a long-term deal and with the max-exodus of players during this past offseason, it seemed that Papelbon was another candidate to seek a change of scenery. But some people may not remember that not too long ago that Ryan Madson’s wife, Sarah, making negative comments on Phillies fans. At the time, it seemed like a ticket out-of-town for Madson, but his success this season seemingly made the comments disappear. Except that the Phillies brass did not forget and the publicity that surrounded the event at the time was one that likely set a chain reaction for the plan for Madson to leave at the end of the season. Baseball is a game of short-term memories, but not for all.
When I floated the idea of a Jonathan Papelbon signing all season long, Phillies fans did not have one positive comment back to me. Their fans, as well as most in baseball, had very negative things to say about Papelbon. Outside of Boston it seems, many were unable to or refused to recognize his talent. But while Papelbon was beloved in Boston until now, those sentiments will transfer over to Philadelphia by next season. The stare, as it is known, will become one of the most famed times in Philadelphia Phillies history as the team and its fans get revved up watching Jonathan Papelbon close out games for the next 4-seasons. There is a changing of the guard in Philadelphia. The Phillies have Halladay, Lee and Hamels to start things off and now can rely on Papelbon to close them out. The stare now makes its residence in the city of brotherly love. Another World Series may not be far behind.
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen)
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MLB Free Agent Closer Carousel
Friday November 11, 2011
Rob Bland (Baseball Writer – MLB reports): Every one of the MLB’s franchises will be looking for bullpen help, and most will be looking to add a major contributor to the back-end. The closer position is one that is seen as the most underrated as well as the most overrated job in all of baseball. On one hand, some people may over-value a closer’s “makeup” and poise, where others say “it’s the same as pitching at any point in the game.” While I like to sit somewhere between these two concepts, most fans like knowing that their team employs a “proven veteran closer.” All you have to do is look at the St. Louis Cardinals of 2011 to notice that is not necessarily the case. Their closer was Jason Motte, although Tony La Russa refused to officially anoint him so. Motte had 12 career saves going into the postseason, 9 of which were in 2011. However, the fireballer was dominant in the postseason, and helped to bring in another World Series title to St. Louis.
In 2007, the Boston Red Sox employed a closer by the name of Jonathan Papelbon, a 2nd year closer, and they went on to win the World Series. There are several other times where a homegrown closer has led his team to a championship, Brian Wilson of the 2010 San Francisco Giants being another recent one.
There are many closers without a set home for 2012, with Papelbon headlining that list. It has been said that Papelbon is looking for a 4 y
ear contract, and could even get a 5th guaranteed year on the open market. Much of the early talk about closers this off-season has surrounded Ryan Madson, formerly of the Philadelphia Phillies. It was rumored that he had agreed with the Phillies to a 4 year, $44M contract with a 5th year as a vesting option. It was said that the Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. was awaiting approval from team president David Montgomery. It has recently come to light that Amaro Jr. has vehemently denied these rumors.
Frank Francisco, Francisco Rodriguez, Heath Bell, Jonathan Broxton, Joe Nathan and Francisco Cordero are all closers who may be looking for new homes in 2012. Also available are Matt Capps, Jon Rauch, David Aardsma, and Takashi Saito.
The Boston Red Sox, Philadelphia Phillies, San Diego Padres, LA Dodgers, Cincinnati Reds, Toronto Blue Jays, Minnesota Twins, Florida Marlins and Houston Astros are some of the teams who figure to be in the market for a closer, if not to upgrade.
Because of the Madson fiasco that has been taking place, I doubt he re-signs with the Phillies. The Phillies seem to have moved on to their next target, Papelbon. All Papelbon has done in his 6+ seasons with the Red Sox is accumulate 219 saves with a 4.43 K/BB ratio. His career ERA sits at 2.33 while his FIP isn’t far off at 2.60, showing just how good he actually is. I think a 4 year deal worth $51M and a vesting option of $15M would likely get the job done.
Madson’s early “almost signing” may have set the bar for Papelbon, and Madson will be looking for something in the same range. He may have to settle for a bit less as the Phillies look to get the signing done quickly. Madson took over for Brad Lidge, who battled injuries in 2011 as the Phillies closer. A 3.88 K/BB ratio and a ground ball rate close to 50% ensured a very successful season where his FIP was 2.25. 4 years and $40M should get it done, and I see him going to the LA Dodgers.
Francisco Rodriguez (K-Rod) was traded at the deadline from the Mets to the Milwaukee Brewers, but didn’t get an opportunity to close o
ut games. His displeasure with the situation was coming out, even though incumbent closer John Axford was performing extremely well, and the club was on its way to a playoff berth. The Miami Marlins (still doesn’t feel right to say) are looking to be huge spenders this off-season, and I see no difference with K-Rod. Rodriguez has 291 saves in his career, including a single season record 62 in 2008 with the LA Angels of Anaheim. I see the 30-year-old signing a 3 year deal worth $30M to usurp the incumbent Marlins closer, Juan Oviedo (previously known as Leo Nunez).
Heath Bell is a closer who has had tremendous numbers over the last three seasons, albeit in ultra spacious Petco Park as his home field. His K rate dipped this year, and may have been a bit lucky with a .261 BABIP. San Diego Padres GM Josh Byrnes has already said he would likely offer arbitration to Bell, a Type A free agent. Bell has also said in the past that he would accept arbitration, as he likes San Diego. This presents a slight problem for the cash-strapped Padres, who prefer to keep their payroll lower. Bell will be due a raise from the $7.5M he made in 2011, so a $9-10M 1 year deal will likely be in place here with the Padres.
Joe Nathan is a special case, because he had an option of $12.5M declined by the Minnesota Twins, who would still like to bring him back. Nathan did not pitch in 2010 after undergoing Tommy John Surgery, and threw 44 2/3 mediocre innings in 2011. However, over his last 27 innings, he gave up only 20 hits, 5 walks and 10 runs, really finishing strong and proving he is healthy again. The downfall is that by spring training, he will be 38 years old and clearly looking at the end of his career. The Toronto Blue Jays are looking for a closer to anchor a bullpen that will see a lot of turnover, and Nathan could be had for $4M and a club option for 2013.
Jonathan Broxton is another closer looking to establish his value. The hulking 6’4” 300 lb closer had a disappoint 2011 season, and just had surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow in September. His K rate has steadily declined from the career high of 13.50/9 IP in 2009. His ground ball rate, BB/9, ERA and FIP have all suffered at the same time. Broxton will likely get a one year, incentive-laden deal to prove he is healthy. He will likely have to settle for a setup man role, and I think he could work with the Mets in spacious Citi Field.
Francisco Cordero has had a 13 year career that started in Detroit, then took him to Texas, Milwaukee then finally Cincinnati. The Reds recently declined his $12M option, but GM Walt Jocketty has said he hopes to bring the closer back. However, I don’t see him donning the Reds jersey any longer, as the soon to be 37-year-old will look to move on and close out his career. While his fastball still averages 93 mph, it is 3 mph slower than Cordero’s prime. Because of this, his K rate has dipped to 5.43/9IP from 12.22/9IP in 2007. While his stats have declined, he has averaged 39 saves the last 5 seasons. He will probably settle for a one year deal worth $6M, where the Minnesota Twins will sign him.
It’s a carousel in the closing world, as more teams are beginning to put less stock in having an established closer at the back of a bullpen. Homegrown closers are becoming a more popular choice, but some teams look for that slight edge, and if it means overpaying for a pitcher who will throw roughly 5% of the team’s innings, they will do so.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Rob Bland. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Rob on Twitter.***
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Mike Maddux: The Next Great MLB Manager and the End of the Rangers
Saturday November 5, 2011
MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen: I rarely get excited about coaches in the game. Not for the reasons that you may think. Many coaches are great at their craft. But most MLB coaches work behind the scenes and are rarely heard from or spoken to. In the MLB revolving door game, it seems that many players, as well as coaches, are seen be teams as interchangeable commodities. When teams hit slumps or fail to meet expectations, it is easier to change the coach(es)/manager than it is to replace twenty-five players on the roster. So when a coach stands out and gets me excited, you know that he is a game-changer in my opinion. Two such coaches currently exist in the ranks. Both are pitching coaches and both are being reviewed for changes in employment. The first is Dave Duncan in St. Louis and the second is Mike Maddux in Texas.
With the retirement of Tony La Russa in St. Louis, many have wondered as to the future of his former pitching coach, Dave Duncan. Widely seen as one of the best in the business, Duncan’s control and shaping of his pitching staff is seen as one of the overriding factors in helping Tony La Russa achieve his success in the game. No Duncan = inferior pitching = no championships. This is the man who took Jeff Weaver and Joel Pineiro and made them into the second coming of Cy Young. Ok…so many Duncan isn’t such an effective miracle worker. But the man is damn good at what he does and all else being equal, there would be 29 other teams that would love to discuss employment if he was available. But rather than seek a managerial position, Duncan- who start coaching in the late 1970s with Cleveland, has indicated that he will be honoring his contract and remain the pitching coach in St. Louis. The man clearly knows his strengths and his goals in the game. For the future manager of St. Louis, he will be inheriting a right-hand man to guide his pitchers like no others.
Well…with the exception of one man perhaps. While Duncan is seen as one of the game’s greatest pitching coaches of all time- Mike Maddux has grown into the being the next best coach, if not “the” best. In his 9 seasons as pitching coach, Maddux has successfully transformed the Brewers pitching staff (during his time in Milwaukee) into one of the best in the game. From there, Maddux has taken a Rangers squad that has been known seemingly forever as being all bats and no arms. The Rangers have had one of the worst statistical pitching staffs for much of its stay in Texas. Maddux has successfully lowered the team ERA every year in the past three years and has helped transform the Rangers pitchers into stars. C.J. has gone from middle reliever/occasional closer into the staff ace. Alexi Ogando excelled in the rotation, as has Neftali Feliz as closer. Some may argue that the Rangers have more pitching talent in the history of organization. That may be true on many levels, but the team still plays half of its games in one of the most dangerous hitters’ ballparks in baseball. By working his magic with the Rangers pitching staff, considering its home ballpark, Mike Maddux is a miracle worker to me.
It is my understanding that Mike Maddux is the highest, or one of the highest paid pitching coaches in the game. To get him to leave his status in Texas, he would need to be offered a strong position that presented a challenging and rewarding opportunity in the game. As the Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox both come calling this week, Mike Maddux will likely be choosing soon whether he is ready to take on the top leadership on the field of one of the two top franchises in the game. The Rangers have already granted Maddux permission, as Nolan Ryan and company do not wish to stand in the way of Mike Maddux’s success. With Ron Washington leading the Rangers to two straight World Series appearances, the managerial position was unlikely to be offered to Maddux any time soon in Texas. So the draw will likely come down to Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer in Chicago convincing Maddux to lead the Cubs, while Ben Cherington does the same in Boston.
Is Mike Maddux up for the role? Hard to say. A great pitching coach won’t necessarily lead to success as a manager. But Maddux has
many of the essential intangibles for success. He is known as a hard worker, dependable, well liked but respected by his players. For all the years I have watched him, he always seemed to be a calming influence over his pitchers. If he can exercise that same attitude for the other coaches of a team and its players, we may be forming the next great MLB manager. Other managerial positions may open up, but for the time being, it appears that the Cubs and Red Sox have the edge in luring him away from Texas. Both are major markets and present the chance to build/groom winning ball clubs. The Red Sox have more talent, but also have the older squad with referenced difficult players and personalities to manage. The Cubs, while younger and less talented, may be more moldeable for Maddux if named manager.
Mike Maddux did pitch for the Red Sox over two seasons. While he never played in Chicago, he will know the Cubs and Wrigley well from his Brewers coaching days. Mike’s younger brother, Greg was a star pitcher for many years for the Cubs and can give him much insight into the team. The decision will boil down to fit. Does Mike Maddux want to manage? Likely, the answer is yes. With his experience and reputation at the game, it will be difficult to not want to take on the job of a lifetime. Money will be no object, as both squads could offer Maddux 3-5 year contracts at approximately $3 million per season. So the answer will come down to where Maddux would most want to manage. The answer will likely be Chicago.
Having coached in the division for some time and having his brother’s experiences as a strong influence, I see Mike Maddux being attracted to being a manager in Wrigley. For all its talent and fandom, the mix of veterans and difficult personalities will likely be more than Maddux as a rookie manager will want to handle. The Cubs, with more youth present a bigger challenge for Maddux. Yet, the team will also likely be more moldeable under him. Mike Maddux looks to me like a long-term thinker. After taking the Rangers youngsters and turning their pitchers into stars, Maddux will likely want to do the same in Chicago. Both teams will go aggressively after him, but at the end of the day, I expect Maddux to be wearing the “C” cap by opening day. Theo Epstein started the groundwork for Mike Maddux while still running the Red Sox. He seems to be a sharp guy and what Theo wants, he usually gets. As the Jays denied the opportunity for John Farrell to be available, Epstein will now need to seek another former pitching coach turned manager. Mike Maddux appears to be his man.
What does this all mean for the Texas Rangers? I can’t say they will regress back to the old poor pitching squad of yesteryear, but I certainly think the team will suffer greatly if Mike Maddux departs. As today’s MLB is strongly built on pitching, the Rangers would be losing their not-so-secret weapon if Mike Maddux was to jump ship. This is a loss that the team most cannot afford to occur. All else being equal, retaining Mike Maddux in my opinion is more important than having C.J. Wilson on the squad. This is the value of Mike Maddux. But after giving Maddux the biggest coach’s contract to come Texas, there is little the Rangers can do to keep Mike Maddux as they cannot offer him a promotion. Nolan Ryan would need to be very creative if he had hoped to keep his pitching coach. But at the end of the day, money is one factor. Job title is another. The Rangers clearly have realized this as they granted teams permission to talk to Mike Maddux. While showing good faith in rewarding their pitching coach for a job well done, the team is likely shooting itself in the foot and risking its long-term viability if Mike Maddux does end up leaving.
I expect Mike Maddux to be successful wherever he goes. If he joins the Cubs or Red Sox, it is almost guaranteed that the team will have a fantastic pitching staff. Will the rest of the team excel and contend? A good question, which will come down to whether Mike Maddux surrounds himself with smart coaches as a manager. For the 50-year old Maddux with the younger brother who is a future hall-of-famer, he is clearly building his own legacy in the game. My expectation is that we will have an announcement in the next 7-10 days, confirming Mike Maddux as the new manager for either the Cubs or Red Sox. If that is the case, expect those teams to be playoff regulars in the near future. In the same token, expect the Rangers run of World Series appearances to end as soon as Mike Maddux to leave. He may not have been their everything, but should he depart, the secret weapon of the Rangers will disappear as well. Good luck to Mike Maddux: he has exciting but difficult decisions to make in the near future.
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen)
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
John Lackey to Undergo Tommy John Surgery: The Aftermath in Boston
Wednesday October 26, 2011
MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen: The Boston Red Sox announced this week that starting pitching John Lackey would be undergoing Tommy John surgery, ending his 2012 season before it began. In a twist of irony, this move actually comes as relief to Red Sox nation as Lackey has been anything but stellar since coming to Boston.
In 8 seasons with the Angels, Lackey had a 102-71 record, good for a 3.81 ERA and 1.306 WHIP. In his past 2 seasons with the Red Sox, Lackey’s numbers ballooned to a 26-23 record, with an unsightly 5.26 ERA and 1.504 WHIP. Lackey’s winning record in Boston is attributable more to the Red Sox strong offense, rather than Lackey’s own production. 2011 was a miserable season statistically for Lackey with 2012 not looking much promising either.
In hindsight, John Lackey’s contract is one of the worst in baseball. Lackey is signed to a 5-year, $82.5 million deal running through 2014. For the final 3 years (2012-14), Lackey will get paid $15,250,000 per season. The one bit of relief to the Red Sox is that the injury kicks in a 2015 vesting option, whereby Lackey will only be paid $500K for that season. A small consolation given the magnitude of the money and disappointing numbers from Lackey to-date.
For whatever reason(s), the relationship between John Lackey and the Boston Red Sox is not working out. Lackey has battled personal issues while in Boston, including his wife’s health and battle with Cancer. While clearly we can all sympathize with Lackey’s difficulties in playing while dealing with personal issues, the reports from the end of the season of his involvement with drinking in the clubhouse and eating fried chicken during games brings into question Lackey’s commitment and focus to the team and game. Before news of his surgery, many outlets were reported that the Red Sox were actively shopping Lackey in the hopes of removing him from the team. A strong rumor was a swap with the Padres and reuniting Lackey with his old pitching coach from his Angels’ days, Bud Black. The Padres and Petco would have been an ideal environment for Lackey, provided that the Red Sox would have picked up the majority of his contract in the deal.
But the reconstructive elbow surgery has brough the Lackey rumors to a halt. He will be staying in Boston for the foreseeable future. The Red Sox have faced bad luck this year with Tommy John, as pitchers Daisuke Matsuzaka and Rich Hill both underwent the same procedure in 2011. Theo Epstein was wise to include the injury provision in the Lackey contract; but then again, he may have been better off avoiding the pitcher all-together. News of the Lackey injury was the first announcement by Ben Cherington as the new Red Sox GM. From all the offseason transactions and news that will follow in Boston, this one will be taken as one of the more positive moves.
The Red Sox have many decisions facing them this offseason. The re-signing of David Ortiz and Jonathan Papelbon. The
integration and structure of the organization with a new GM. The hiring of a new manager. The departure of J.D. Drew and possibly Marco Scutaro. The comeback of Carl Crawford. These are surely hectic times in Boston. The team will need to make many roster changes for 2012, including the signing of 1-2 new starting pitchers. The injury to Lackey could prove to be a blessing in disguise. The surgery may pinpoint that his terrible numbers in Boston were based more on declining health than eroding skills. With a year-off to rehabilitate and re-energize, the Red Sox may see a new and focused John Lackey. The team would have had to eat most of his contract to trade him; perhaps they are better off paying and playing him.
In the worst case scenario, the Red Sox will need to either trade or release John Lackey between now and 2014, if they do not believe that he can rebound and be a useful asset for the team. There is always the chance that Lackey is not able to recapture the form he displayed back in his Angels days. Also, there may be enough bad feelings between the player and organization that a fresh start will be in order. At this point, the Red Sox are best off to take a “break” so to speak for a year from John Lackey. Come to 2013, the team may find that they have a new valuable asset that they never counted on. John Lackey at the end of the day is a classic example of the risk involved handing a 30 something year-old pitcher a 4+ years contract for big dollars. The Red Sox in this case gambled and lost. But at least the decision can be put off for a year whether to write John Lackey off completely or try to recover pennies on the dollar. I wish John Lackey a successful surgery and healthy recovery. While I don’t expect to see him emerge as a MLB ace upon his return, my sense is that we will see an older and wiser John Lackey on the mound. The talent has always been there. Now he just needs to find the health and heart to fulfill the remainder of his potential.
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports
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David Ortiz to the Jays or Yankees? Try the Rays or Angels
Monday October 17, 2011
MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen: With the World Series all set to commence on Wednesday (Cardinals and Rangers)- our attention is slowly shifting to the upcoming free agency period. A big name (literally) of discussion has been David Ortiz, or better known in baseball circles as “Big Papi”. The rumor mill is running wild as to where Ortiz will play in 2012. Let’s shed some light on the subject and clear up the confusion.
The soon to be 36-year old Ortiz is coming off one of his finest seasons in recent memory. Papi finished with a steady all-around season: 29 home runs, 96 RBIs, 84 runs, 78/83 BB/K, .309 AVG and .953 OPS. Ortiz was named to his 7th all-star team and finishing up a 5-year, $64.5 million contract. For a player that appeared to be in decline back in 2009, Ortiz has shown the last two seasons that he has some juice left in the tank. But with the Red Sox in shambles, given the departure of long-time manager Terry Francona and soon to be ex-GM Theo Epstein, Ortiz himself has said that Boston has become too much of a soap opera. The question on every baseball fan’s mind: will he stay or will he go?
The Ortiz decision to stay in Boston will largely depend on several factors. Firstly, it is unclear whether the team wishes to retain him or go in a different direction. As an aging team with hitters that could use the rest from playing in the field every day, the Red Sox may not longer wish to commit the DH spot to one exclusive batter. Taking that into account with Papi’s streaks and slumps that past few years and recent comments, may be enough for the Red Sox upper management to wish to move on. But if the team does wish to retain him, or give in to fan pressure to keep Ortiz (which is likely to come given his immense popularity), will Papi himself want to remain in Boston? Only the man could answer that question. To know the answer, one would have to get into the player’s head. Does Otiz get along with his teammates or are there divided fractions? How much did the 2011 collapse take a toll on his morale? When will a new GM come into place and will he be able to have a good relationship with Ortiz? Same issue for a new manager…and you get the idea. There are many variables that put into question whether Ortiz could or would stay in Boston.
In my estimation, Ortiz is on his final contract. He will likely obtain a 2-year contract, with an option for a third. Based on his rich history and legacy in Boston, I think that when push comes to shove- the player will stay. Boston needs Papi; and Papi needs Boston. It would not feel right to see Ortiz in another uniform (check out highlights from his days in Minnesota and you will see what I mean). Major League Baseball also would love to see Ortiz remain in Boston for marketing purposes. With so many vested interests in getting this deal done, I believe it will happen. But what if it does not? What if Papi jumps ship? I see his options as far and few between.
The first option that jumped out was the Yankees. It will not happen. While the Yankees would love to stick it to Boston, they will not likely want another aging DH on their hands after the Jorge Posada fiasco this past season. The Yankees also have Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira and company that need days off the field, A-Rod especially given his failing health. With A-Rod becoming a part-time DH as soon as next year, the Yankees cannot afford to take on Papi at this stage. Plus the team has up-and-coming superstar Jesus Montero that needs playing time and has nothing more to prove in AAA. So the Yankees rate as a no.
The next options for Ortiz? It will only be American League teams as he is only a DH at this stage of his career. The only realistic teams that have the open position and fit are Toronto, Tampa Bay and Anaheim. The Jays are being thrown around many circles as a possible destination. It makes sense for several reasons. Ortiz knows the ballpark well from his AL East days. He gets along well with Jose Bautista and would serve as a great mentor for the Jays young hitters. Toronto was missing production last season from the DH spot and would welcome Papi’s bat. But despite these factors, I don’t see this signing happening. Ortiz will want to play on a contender and fight for another ring. His career is winding down and so are his chances. While Toronto has a strong young nucleus, they are at least 2-3 years aways. As much as this would be a feel-good signing, I would rate is as another no.
Thus the battle for the services of David Ortiz will boil down to the Tampa Bay Rays and Anaheim Angels. Two strong playoff contending teams that desperately need his bat. Tampa Bay should be the favorite, given the familiarity of the AL East and the strong need of the team. The Rays have the lineup spot for Ortiz and should make a big push for him. The Angels have the same need, but not the best fit for position. The team has a logjam in the outfield with Mike Trout likely to be with the big club next year and Kendrys Morales returning to the team from injury. But when there is a will, there is a way. Like many other squads, the Angels would need to do some creative shuffling to make room for Ortiz. Vernon Wells may need to be moved for a bad pitcher’s contract in return (Carlos Zambrano anyone?) Kendrys Morales may not be recovered or Trout may not be ready. The Angels went through a desperate need all year in 2011 for runs and will not want to face the same issue come 2012. Papi could be the perfect short-term solution for the Halos.
The four-horse race to sign David Ortiz will come down to the Red Sox, Jays, Rays and Angels. The Rays are my dark horse favorite and best overall fit. The Jays would love to take him on, it will just depend on the confidence Papi has in the team’s ability to compete. Boston will hang in right till the end and the Angels will need to be aggressive to get him. If we are playing the odds, I would rate Boston as a 70% favorite, followed by Tampa Bay at 20% and the Jays/Angels at 5% each. Once the World Series ends, let the David Ortiz sweepstakes begin!
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
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