Blog Archives
Chuck Booth’s GWR Streak (Parks 25-29)
The Streak ended at 30 MLB Parks in 23 calendar days!!
I broke my old record of 24 days by being-Fastest to see all 30 MLB parks in 23 days from April 6th to 28th!
Sked is here: fastestthirtyballgames3021.wordpress.com/2012/04/18/30in20/
Follow me-@chuckbooth3024 on twitter
http://mlbreports.com/gwr-tracker/ or at my official website for all updates!
Friday May.4/2012
Chuck Booth and Lori Martini being interviewed by ‘Did The Tribe Win Last Night’ Blog at the Social Suite at Progressive Field.
MLB Park # 25 Day # 20
COL 2 @ PIT 1
April.25/2012
PNC PARK
Douglas ‘Chuck’ Booth (Baseball Writer)- My stay in Tampa Bay was a nice one the night before(despite having to commandeering a neighboring hotel just to do some laundry at midnight.) I was too fired up to sleep and there was no chance at all I would risk sleeping in on this day. I had known for a while that this was going to be an epic day. Since the fallout of the missed doubleheader for Cleveland and Baltimore was first established on that San Diego flight, I looked forward to this day thoroughly.
Like this:
Did Braun and Verlander Deserve Their MVP Awards?
Wednesday November 23, 2011
Sam Evans: Over the last two days, Major League Baseball announced their 2011 MVPs. Justin Verlander of the Detroit Tigers took home the award in the American League while Ryan Braun of the Milwaukee Brewers won the National League award. Now that the voting is over, we can look at who really deserved the awards.
American League MVP: In August, Buster Olney sparked discussion on the AL MVP, when he said on Twitter that if he had a vote it would go to Verlander. At the time, I thought that the award was Jose Bautista‘s to lose. However, after watching Verlander dominate team after team, it became clear to me that this was the most valuable player in the American League. He meant more to his team than any other player in the league. Verlander finished with a with a 2.40 ERA in 251 innings. Verlander threw more innings than any other pitcher in the majors, and to have that strong of numbers in those innings makes it even more impressive.
Verlander also threw his second career no-hitter this year, and led the majors in strikeouts. Jacoby Ellsbury and Jose Bautista are not shabby candidates either, but they didn’t have the effect Verlander did on his team. The Tigers expected to win every single time that Verlander was on the mound. Overall, even if the BBWAA made this decision based on Verlander’s twenty-four wins, it was the right choice. Verlander became the first pitcher to win the MVP since Dennis Eckersley in 1992.
National League MVP: In somewhat of a surprising decision, Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun was awarded the NL MVP award, receiving 20 out of 32 first place votes, and a total of 388 points. Finishing a close second was Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp, who received 10 first place votes, and a total of 332 points.
First of all, these were obviously the top two candidates. They both had amazing years that should not go unnoticed despite who actually won the award. What I think it came down to was that Braun made the playoffs and Kemp didn’t. This is somewhat understandable because you can make the argument that if a certain player had such a big impact on their team then they should have made the playoffs. The real question is did Braun really make his team that much better, or did he just play on a much better team? Also, did the distractions surrounding the Dodgers and its ownership affect Kemp’s chances of winning the MVP? It definitely did not help his case.
To truly compare these players first you have to evaluate their defense. Kemp played a much harder position then Braun and he had to cover more ground. Kemp had a UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating, a stat used to show how much ground a player covers) of -4.6. Braun had a UZR of -3.8. Neither of these is very impressive, so I guess we can just call this comparison a draw.
As for offense, in my own opinion, Kemp had a stronger year. Both players were very similar in normal statistics. Braun hit .332 with 33 HR and 111 RBI. Kemp hit .324 with 39 HR and 126 RBI. What impresses me is that Kemp scored more runs than Braun despite not having Prince Fielder batting behind him. Also, Kemp had a harder ballpark to hit in, and plays in a stronger pitching division. Kemp was really the only dangerous hitter in the Dodgers lineup, so pitchers could avoid him more than Braun.
According to Baseball-Reference WAR, Kemp was by far the more valuable player. Kemp led the NL with 10.0 WAR, which make Braun’s 7.7 seem miniscule. Kemp also led the National League in total bases, with 353, and Adjusted OPS + with 171.
These two players had almost identical years. If I had a vote, it would have gone to Kemp. But I don’t think Braun winning is anything to get worked up about. A strong case could have been made for him, as shown by Braun being the winner of the 2012 NL MVP award.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Sam Evans. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Sam on Twitter.***
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Baseball Writer, Sam Evans. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Sam on Twitter.***
Projecting MLB Sluggers: The Top 5 in 2012
Tuesday November 22, 2011
Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst – MLB reports): Accompanied with my projections and analysis, I profile the top-five fantasy baseball sluggers to target for 2012. I encourage your thoughts and feedback!
1. Ryan Braun
2012 Projections: .321 38 HR 119 RBI 108 R 32 SB
Given that he is at the prime of his career having just turned 28 on November 17, Ryan Braun ranks at the top of the list. He is the complete package and enjoyed a 2011 season that had fantasy owners drooling and was named the 2011 NL MVP today! He was a machine in all five of the standard fantasy categories with a .332 average, 33 home runs, 111 RBI’s, 109 runs and 33 SB’s. The exciting thing is that the will only continue to get better. The home run total has the potential to reach 40 and I don’t see reason why Braun won’t steal 30 bases again. Braun is by no means one of the speediest players baseball, but he is truly one of the smartest base runners. He steals at a career success rate of 80% and was only caught 6 times in 2011. Some people wonder about the effect that Prince Fielder’s potential departure will have on Braun, but I am not overly concerned. Braun is truly a special and hall of fame caliber player because he not only possesses all of the physical tools, but also is one of the game’s smartest players. He continually makes adjustments and just has such an impressive knowledge of the game that allows him to better utilize his talents than others.
2012 Projections: .312 39 HR 120 RBI 117 R 12 SB
Albert Pujols has been the best fantasy player in baseball since he emerged onto scene in 2001. Ten Ruth-like seasons later, the slugger might find himself in a new uniform. Furthermore, his somewhat “down” season in 2011 has caused concern for many fantasy owners. But before we expect an A-rod-like decline, lets take a closer look at the numbers. Through the Cardinal’s first 54 games, Pujols batted .257 with 8 home runs and 28 RBI. That means in the team final 108 games, which included the time missed with the wrist injury, he batted .322 with 29 home runs and 71 RBI’s. That is the Pujols that we have all been accustomed to over the last decade. I will not go into detail explaining just how good Pujols has been throughout his career because you should already know by now. Last year was the first season he did not put up .300 30 HR and 100 RBI. He missed this feat by one RBI and one point of average, in a season that included an uncharacteristic 50 game stretch (contract issues?). I expect Pujols to be back in St. Louis next season, and all though he well on the back nine of his career, he is still too good and has a lot left in the tank. Expect the usual numbers, the type that he continued to put up despite his slow start to the season in 2011.
2012 Projections: .336 34 HR 122 RBI 109 R 2 SB
Did you know that Miguel Cabrera is only 28 years old? I sure didn’t. He has been an offensive force for almost a decade. In my mind, he is the game’s best pure hitter and will only continue to get better. He managed to have another elite season in 2011, despite all the controversy and off the field issues he had to deal with. He continues to improve at the plate and BB right is on the incline while his K rate declines. For these reasons, and his career .317 average, there is no reason to not expect his average to hover around .330. He is an average anchor for your lineup that will also exceed 30 HR and 100 RBI’s and runs. The only thing he does not do is steal bases. However, refer to my article last week, Cabrera is the type of average and power anchor that can allow your team roster a space for the one-trick ponies, i.e. Michael Bourn. Overall, just expect more of the same from Cabrera: which means elite production in four of the five standard fantasy categories, average, runs, home runs, and runs batted in.
4. Matt Kemp
2012 Projections: .296 33 HR 108 RBI 103 R 34 SB
At 27 years of age, Matt Kemp is also just entering his prime. He missed a 40/40 season by just one home run and batted .326 and drove in 126 runs, which led to being the runner-up for the 2011 NL MVP award. However, he is easily the most difficult to predict on the list. If I expected him to improve upon or even just repeat his 2011 season, he would be at the top of the list. We simply cannot expect Kemp to be this fantasy-tastic again in 2012. Matt Kemp’s .380 BABIP lead all of major league baseball, however he does hold a career .352 clip, which is tops in baseball. Therefore, expect regression in his batting average in the .290-.300 range. Kemp also strikes out a lot, not like in 2010, but he still struck out in 23 percent of his at bats in 2011. When you are not putting the ball in play at a high rate, there is potential for a lot of volatility. Given his skill set, 2011 was essentially a best-case scenario for Kemp. The other four guys on the list make contact much more consistently and therefore have been more consistent throughout the career and are easier to project forward. Furthermore, I am not encouraged by the line up around built around Kemp. He is still elite, but it is unwise to expect him to repeat 2011. He will come down to earth but still provide across the board value for your team.
5. Joey Votto
2012 Projections: .316 32 HR 112 RBI 115 R 11SB
At 28 years of age, Joey Votto is also in the prime of his career. His 2011 season, with heavy expectations after an MVP season, was a down season for Votto. A down season in which he batted .309 29 HR 103 RBI 8 SB. And if this type of season is Votto’s worst-case scenario, you can live with it! However, given his age and peripheral stats, all signs point to an improved season for Votto in 2012. Votto is a pure hitter who continues to gain better command over strike zone, as his walk rate his increased steadily in each of the four last seasons. The average will always be there for Votto, just a notch below Cabrera. The biggest concern for fantasy owners was the drop in power, form 37 to 29 home runs. However, Votto hit the ball in the air more often in the second half of the season and hit 16 post all-star HR’s in 260 at-bats, compared to just 13 in his 339 at-bats before the break. Furthermore, his .222 ISO was well below his 2010 season (.276) and career average of .237. Therefore, expect him to bounce back to the 35 HR territory with elite average. The true wildcard for Votto is what he does on the basepaths. He stole just 8 bases in 2011, but if he puts a greater emphasis on running like he did in 2010, with 16 stolen bases, then he has the potential to provide extreme five-category value to your roster.
Honorable Mention:
Jacoby Ellsbury: His .230 ISO in 2011 (career .152) explains his surprise 30-home run season. Ellsbury’s peripheral indicate he will be more of a .300 20 HR 80 RBI 40 SB type players, making him a notch below Braun and Kemp.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Fantasy Baseball Analyst, Peter Stein. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Peter on Twitter (@peterWstein).***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter (@MLBreports) and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
The All-Bargain 2012 MLB Free Agency Team
Monday November 21, 2011
MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen: Every baseball offseason, we all seem to fall into a familiar trap. The focus always seem to be on the “prize” free agents, while bargains always seem to be had (especially when the big spenders have reached their budgets). So while Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Reyes, C.J. Wilson and company are the majority of the headlines- are they truly the difference makers? Getting quality players that are more economical may in fact have a stronger impact on a team that is looking to compete. It allows for a team to fill needs while devoting financial resources to other resources, including scouting, signing draft picks and locking up younger players before they hit free agency. Remember: a team has many expense areas but only a certain amount of money to go around. Devoting $100 million+ to 1 player tends to significantly limit a team, regardless of the strength of such a player. ”Spreading the wealth” so to speak, will limit the risk of putting all the eggs in one basket. It is a similar to diversification of stocks. A well-rounded portfolio will tend to outperform most others. But if those assets can be acquired at a reduced cost, the return will look even better.
Now, imagine that we were going to build a starting lineup based purely on free agents. What available free agents would give a team the best bang for the buck? If we were to look at the 2012 MLB free agency list, our All-Bargain team would probably look a little something like this:
C: Ryan Doumit (starter) and Jose Molina (backup): At approximately $5 million combined, Doumit and Molina should offer fairly solid production at a reasonable rate. Doumit also offers versatility by playing first and some outfield. If (and when) Doumit gets injured, Molina can handle the starting chores for a stretch with a minor leaguer backing up. In my estimation Doumit has the potential to breakout in a Mike Napoli manner. He has the skills and power. The guy just has to stay healthy. As far as overall offense and defense from the catching position, there are fewer solid backups that Jose- part of the great “Catching Molinas.”
1B: Carlos Pena: This one area that I am prepared to splurge. For all the talk of the low average, Pena should offer good power, a solid OBP and gold glove defense. At approximately $10 million per season, he will still be a bargain to the other heavyweights at the position. This is one area that you need top-notch offense and Pena should deliver again in 2012.
2B: Kelly Johnson: See Carlos Pena but at a more reasonable ticket price. Johnson has a strong knack for getting on base and has excellent power for the position. He is a gamer that will always have a spot on my team.
SS: Ramon Santiago: You can’t fully appreciate what Santiago offers unless you watch him on a daily basis. Few infielders have a glove as strong as his. While not the most gifted offensive player, he can chip in the occasional big hit while holding his own as a #8 or #9 hitter. Another versatile player to have on the roster. Options are always good.
3B: Kevin Kouzmanoff: The “Crushin’ Russian” is on the squad. Yes, I am still holding out hope that he will come together. I would take a chance on a breakout. At the very least you will get good “D” and some offense at a bargain basement price. If he doesn’t come together, I would grab Casey Blake or Wilson Betemit to sit on the bench if they come dirt cheap.
CF: Grady Sizemore: I like the style of Ruben Amaro Jr. and Pat Gillick. I would have been at Sizemore’s house on the first day of free agency as well. Given his high upside and apparent health, I would sign him as quickly as possible. If you get even 75% of the old Sizemore, you still have a likely All-Star.
LF: Raul Ibanez: I’ve heard about his defense. But I am still signing him. Rauuuuul will come at a fraction of his last big contract. The man owns his own rejuvenation chamber and still has the body of a 35-year old. Strong leader, 20+ home runs and all at a maximum of cost $5 million per season. Mark him sold.
RF: J.D. Drew: Hungry for one more big contract? With Scott Boras as his agent, this on-base machine should be hungry to prove that he is healthy and productive. He may cost $3 million per season. Well worth the risk. Just to cover ourselves, Johnny Damon is also coming on board as a 4th outfielder. Between Sizmore, Ibanez, Drew and Damon, we should be able to run out an outfield most days. If David DeJesus or Rick Ankiel are prepared to hang around as 5th outfielders/designated hitters, we may find some spare cash for them as well.
DH: If we are talking non-National League team, then we HAVE to grab Josh Willingham as our designated hitter. Or even a right fielder if we must. The Hammer still carries a heavy bat and should anchor the offense. He still has a couple of more productive years in him. He should come at a relative bargain price considering 25+ home run bats are not easy to come by.
SP: Chris Capuano, Bruce Chen, Aaron Harang, Paul Maholm, Brad Penny, Dontrelle Willis: From these six selected starters, we should have ourselves a fairly decent rotation. Pitching is one of the most difficult areas on any roster to fill, especially starters. You have to catch lightning in a bottle and hope many factors, especially health, work out. Maholm and Harang should be our “aces” with approximately 12 wins a-piece. Capuano will be the third starter, who should be even better with another healthy year under his belt. Between Chen, D-Train and Penny, we will count on veteran inning-eaters who are able to squeeze out wins. Not the team’s greatest source of strength, but all six of these pitchers combined will cost less per season that C.C. Sabathia on his own.
RP: Matt Capps, Jonathan Broxton, Jeremy Accardo, Shawn Camp, Fernando Rodney, Damaso Marte, J.C. Romero: Going with the Tony La Russa formula, we are putting together a veteran pen with several closing options. If at full strength, Broxton should be the ninth inning guy. Otherwise, the role will fall to Capps or Rodney. Accardo and Camp should be decent middle relievers with Marte and Romero balancing out the pen. Used to their capabilities, our pen should help us contend.
Conclusion: Building a team on a budget is not the easiest process. This team will cost us likely north of $80 million dollars, but should stay under the magical $100 million mark. Considering it is a team built from scratch and based on availability, “Team MLB Reports” should be a veteran squad that stays in the pennant race. Even with the relative slim pickings in some areas, this year’s free agency squad offers value at most positions. While no teams will be built based solely on free agency this year, there are enough complimentary parts that any Major League team can find good value. It is just a question of shopping smart and buying at the right time.
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen)
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Interview with MLB Prospect Lance Durham: Talking Baseball with “The Bull”
Sunday November 20, 2011
Jonathan Hacohen: We are proud to welcome to MLB reports: Lance Durham, first base prospect and 2nd generation baseball player. His father, Leon Durham, played 10 seasons in the show. Best known as an outfielder/first baseman for the Cubs, Leon had pop in his bat and a strong ability to get on base. Following in his dad’s footsteps, Lance looks to make his own mark on the game. Originally signed by the Detroit Tigers in 2006, Lance opted to attend college and was drafted again in 2009, this time by the Toronto Blue Jays. Lance has just completed his third season in the Jays’ organization. I have enjoyed the opportunity to talk baseball with Lance on several occasions. He is an extremely intelligent bright man, with a strong sense of his roots and his path in the game. An extremely motivated and hard-working player, Lance has the fundamental tools to succeed in the game. At 23-years of age, the future looks bright for “The Bull”.
Featured on MLB reports, I proudly present my interview with baseball prospect and future superstar, Lance Durham:
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________
MLB reports: Who was your favorite baseball player growing up, that you most idolized and patterned your game after?
Lance Durham: My favorite baseball player growing up was my father. I know it sounds cliché but it’s the truth. I didn’t get to see him play in person but we have tapes all over the house of him when he was with the Cubs and I loved the intensity he played with. His demeanor, swagger and confidence were never lacking out on the playing field and that’s something I try to carry out on the field.
MLB reports: Which current MLB star do you most admire and why?
Lance Durham: I admire Prince Fielder the most. First, he was the only player to play all 162 games in 2011 and 160 games in 2010. That’s something to admire a lot because he brings it to the table everyday and doesn’t ask for days off.
MLB reports: Reflecting on your career to-date, what are your proudest accomplishments on the baseball field?
Lance Durham: Having the opportunity to follow in my father’s footsteps.
MLB reports: What are your goals going into the 2012 season?
Lance Durham: Stay healthy and set no limitations for the season. Sky’s the limit.
MLB reports: When you first found out you were drafted, what were your reactions? Did those reactions change over time? What was the process like being drafted originally by the Tigers in 2006 and Blue Jays in 2009 and not signing with the Tigers originally? What made you decide to finally sign with the Jays in 2009?
Lance Durham: When I first got drafted out of high school, I thanked God and was happy to know that my name was already out there. But I thought it was best for me to go to college at that point. In 2009, it was just like “well, its time to start the grind” because I wasn’t a first rounder like my father and he told me it was time to out perform the competition. I didn’t sign with the Tigers originally because I was drafted in the 45th round and I figured going to college and getting smarter about the game of baseball and physically stronger (was in my best interests). Not to mention mom (Angela Durham) always wanted me to go college and I promised her I would one time in my life. So I did it (went to college) fresh out of high school.
MLB reports: What facets of your game do you most wish to improve upon?
Lance Durham: I just hope to improve on all areas of the game, whether it’s hitting, base running, defense, and having a great baseball IQ- which I think is the best advantage. The more you know about the game, the better you will do. My baseball IQ includes knowing what to do with the ball once you get it, thinking before the play even happens, so that the game slows down for you.
MLB reports: How do home runs and walks figure into your game? Do you see any of these three items changing over time and to what degree?
Lance Durham: Well home runs are awesome. There is no better feeling for me, except winning a ball game. Walks are also great because it shows your patience at the plate. Those are two statistics that you want to be pretty high.
MLB reports: How much of an influence was your dad on you growing up? What did you learn from your dad that has shaped you as a baseball player?
Lance Durham: Dad was a great influence on my baseball career. He has been involved in baseball his whole life, so to learn stuff from him about the game is great. The thing I learned from my dad the most is the mental part of the game. You are going to strike out. You are going to make errors. But it is how you learn from them and not make the same mistakes twice. He always preaches adjustments. If we are in the batting cage and I keep making the same mistake over and over, he won’t say anything until I make the adjustment on my own. Then he will say “what took you so long,” and we just laugh. But the quicker you pick up on the adjustments, the better ball player you will become.
MLB reports: If you had to look into a crystal ball, when do you see your expected time of arrival in the big leagues and what do you think you need to do most to get there?
Lance Durham: Hopefully as soon as possible. That is what all of minor leaguers strive for. I am just going to take it one day at a time. Even in the offseason: with the workouts and the cage work and everything, you just have to have it on your mind and want it bad.
MLB reports: If you were not playing professional baseball, you would be ____
Lance Durham: A video game creator.
MLB reports: What do you do for fun away from the ballpark?
Lance Durham: Hanging out with friends, go to the movies and spending time with the family.
MLB reports: Which of your teammates are you closest with – any good stories?
Lance Durham: This past year on the Lansing Lugnuts team, I got really close with a lot of guys. Michael Crouse, Jake Marisnick, Jack Murphy, Markus Brisker, Matt Nuzzo. The stories could go on for days. Let’s just say that they are a great group of guys and I thank God I got to play with them.
MLB reports: Your father Leon was known as “The Bull”. Do you go by the same nickname? What is the origin of the nickname and how did you adopt it?
Lance Durham: Well my dad’s nickname just stuck with me because of him. When he would bring me into the locker rooms as a kid, everyone would already call me “Little Bull” when I was like 10. So it has stuck with me even until today, so I just roll with it. Won’t be long until they just start calling me BULL!!!
MLB reports: Final thought: When fans think of the name Lance Durham, what images do you want them to associate you with?
Lance Durham: He was a student of the game. He played the game right and he played the game hard. He was also a great teammate.
Thank you again to Lance Durham for taking the time to join us today on MLB reports. We highly encourage our readers to post at the bottom of the article any questions and/or comments that you may have for Lance. As well, please follow Lance on Twitter (@LanceBullDurham)
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports: You can follow Jonathan on Twitter (@JHacohen)
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Stolen Bases: Fantasy Baseball Strategies to Increasing Steals
Thursday November 17, 2011
Peter Stein (Fantasy Baseball Analyst – MLB reports): Of the five categories in standard 5X5 roto leagues, it is SB’s that fantasy owners most commonly have the incorrect approach. In this article I will highlight players to target and avoid in the stolen base department, as well as discuss basic fantasy strategy.
There are certainly several one trick ponies, such as Brett Gardner, Michael Bourn, and Coco Crisp, who provide elite production in this department. However, there are a couple of things you must consider. These types of players, who will hopefully hit for average and contribute to runs, will hurt your team’s HR and RBI performance. Therefore, be sure that you have excess value dispersed throughout the rest of your lineup to compensate. Secondly, you are heavily relying one on player for your production in this category, and as a result an injury can leave your team devastated. Thus, it is essential, particularly in the early rounds, that you find players who do everything, including steal bases. Even 5-10 steals that a player contributes above the position average will give you a significant edge.
A player to target next year, Eric Hosmer, quietly stole 11 bases in 2011. The young left-hander batted .313 with 11 HR and 44 RBI’s in the second half last season. While his still progressing power production puts him the second tier of first baseman, his double-digit stolen base potential makes him intriguing and perhaps underrated. Still, this guy finished the season with 19 home runs and 78 RBI’s in 128 games played. Since there are a slew of first baseman that finished with 30 home runs and 100 RBI, they will likely be targeted before Homer. Therefore, I like Hosmer as a guy who might just as well approach these power numbers but also steal 15 bases. For this same reason, I like Joey Votto over any other first baseman not named Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera. While, Adrian and Gonzalez and Prince Fielder might put up higher power numbers and similar batting averages, Joey Votto’s 10 stolen bases will make him significantly more valuable. Albert Pujols is also good for ten stolen bases as well. Only Miguel Cabrera out produces Votto enough in the other four categories to excuse his lack of stolen bases.
Now extend this approach to each position. Dustin Pedroia and his 25-30 stolen bases is more valuable than Robinson Cano and his 5-10 stolen bases, despite the fact Cano finished with 7 more home runs and 25 RBI’s. A player I like at this position if you can afford to take the hit in HR’s and RBI’s is Jemile Weeks, who finished with 22 stolen bases in just 97 games. He will get to play full-time in Oakland, and as long as he is hitting above .290, can be valuable to your roster as a good source of steals. On the decline is Brandon Phillips who has dropped from 25 to 16 to 14 stolen bases the last three seasons. This makes him no longer elite, especially when Ian Kinsler is doing 30/30. An interesting group of players, Kelly Johnson, Danny Espinosa, and Ben Zobrist each his 20 home runs and stole over 15 bases. However, they each struggled with average. Again, take not of your team’s strengths. If you own Votto and a couple of other average anchors, these types of players can be good sources of power and stolen bases at the second base position.
Instead of continuing on and telling you the elite base stealers position by position (you can easily look this up), I will give you my 2012 sleepers and busts.
Stolen Base Sleepers:
Don’t forget that Brett Lawrie’s one-quarter of a season not only put him on pace to hit 36 home runs and 100 RBI’s, but also projected him to finish with 28 stolen bases.
Peter Bourjos made noise at the end of the season and once stole 50 bases in the minor leagues. For the speedy outfielder, it was al
l about getting on base after a 2010 debut in which he batted .204 in 51 games. However, he greatly improved his contact ability, although still needs to improve walk rate, and batted .271 and stole 21 bases for the Angels. He also hit 12 home runs, and has the potential for a productive .280 15 HR 30 SB stat line in 2012.
After stealing 19 bases in 2011, I expect Shane Victorino to reach the 30 mark once again in 2012. It’s not that he didn’t run when he was on base, but his lower than usual BABIP and high than usual ISO (measures true power) simply meant he was not on first base as often as he normally is. With Rollins likely out of Philadelphia, I expect Victorino to ne at the top of the lineup and as aggressive as ever on the base paths.
Keep you eye Cameron Maybin, who stole 40 bases in 137 games for the Padres. As long as he has the chance to play semi-regularly, he is elite in the stolen base category. Furthermore, he appears to be approaching double-digit home run output as well, although he is only a career .255 hitter.
Monitor where Coco Crisp ends up in 2012. I loved him at Oakland in 2011 because he was one of the better hitters on the team (sadly) and at times batted third, but also batted lead off and in the second spot. In addition to leading the American League in steals, he had decent contributions in other categories (8 HR and 54 RBI) compared to some of the other stolen base leaders.
Dexter Fowler is a name to remember because he is simply one of the fastest players in baseball. However, he only stole 12 and 13 bases during the last two years, respectively. He was also caught an alarming 25 times. If he can learn to run on the base paths, he can be elite in this category. It is possible for major leaguers to learn the art of stealing bases. Look at Adam Jones, who was 12/16 on the base paths in 2011 after a 7/14 2010. I expect Jones, who is approaching a contract season, to come closer to 20 steals in 2012.
Speedsters to avoid? Juan Pierre. He really contributes in no other categories and is getting slower, getting caught 17 times in 44 chances in 2011. Furthermore, I do not expect any team to give him the 639 at bats that the White Sox foolishly provided him. Sadly, Ichiro Suzuki is clearly on the decline and appears to be a shell of his former elite self. The same is true with Bobby Abreu.
***Today’s feature was prepared by our Fantasy Baseball Analyst, Peter Stein. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow Peter on Twitter (@peterWstein).***
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter (@MLBreports) and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
An A-to-Z Guide to My MLB Offseason
Friday November 11, 2011
Daniel Aubain (Guest Writer): Question: What does a fantasy baseball blogger without a blog do during the offseason? Answer: Guest write an article for one of his favorite baseball sites!
For those of you who don’t know me, my name is Daniel Aubain and I used to run a fantasy baseball blog called Colorado Springs Fantasy Baseball Addict or COSFBA, for short. I recently decided to shut the site down and pursue other writing opportunities but the itch to write has been too strong to ignore. While I am currently working behind the scenes on a new venture, I wanted to take this opportunity today to highlight for you some topics of interest I’ve been or will be following this baseball offseason.
Below is an A-to-Z guide of some of the key topics I am paying attention to this baseball offseason. Enjoy!
- A is for Awards: So Brett Gardner doesn’t win a Gold Glove (even though he was the best defensive player in all of baseball). Miguel Cabrera doesn’t get a Silver Slugger. And now the Baseball Writers’ Association of America is on Twitter. I’m very excited to see what November 14th through November 22nd has in store for the blogosphere.
- B is for Baseball: The most minor free agent news or offseason trade (see: Melky Cabrera for Jonathan Sanchez and Ryan Verdugo) trumps ANYTHING going on in the NFL, NHL (that’s still a thing) and the NBA (how much longer until this is no longer a thing?).
- C is for Closers: Fantasy baseball GMs know to “never pay for saves”. How come real GMs don’t know this? Ryan Madson possibly getting a 4 year/$44M contract offer from the Phillies? Good luck with that.
- D is for @DJAubain: That’s right. Shameless self promotion. Be sure to follow me at my new Twitter account name. The link is RIGHT THERE!
- E is for Exhibition Baseball: I hope all of you with the MLB Network were able to catch some of the Taiwan All-Star Series. It was a nice fix for those of us going through withdrawals after an amazing World Series.
- F is for FanGraphs: Any aspiring Sabermetrician or fan of advanced baseball statistics has to be familiar with FanGraphs by now, right? Well, why not support their work and show the world you’re a big baseball nerd by purchasing one of these fabulous t-shirts. I’ve got mine.
- G is for Gold Glove: I still can’t believe Brett Gardner didn’t win a Gold Glove. The mainstream media may love awards such as this (it even had its own television show this year) but those of us with any true understanding on how to measure “worthiness” with more than just web gems and name recognition are left scratching our heads more often than not.
- H is for Hot Stove: Free agent signings. Winter meetings. Blockbuster trades. What’s not to love about the MLB offseason?
- I is for Intentional Talk: I’m sorry, MLB Network. For all you do right in my eyes, this is your ultimate worst. I find this show unwatchable. It’s so bad it belongs on ESPN.
- J is for Jose Reyes: Reyes to the Marlins? Not hating it.
- K is for Keepers: Fantasy baseball GMs all over the country are anxiously discussing whether or not player X or player Y is worthy of being a keeper. I think it is absolutely crazy that some leagues have already required you locking in keepers. Wait until February or March to lock up keepers. It will make your league better. Trust me.
- L is for Lefty Specialists: Arthur Rhodes and Darren Oliver are both 41 years old, coming off of World Series appearances and free agents. Which GMs are going to overpay for 50-60 appearances and 40-50 innings pitched? I’m hoping the Yankees get one of these guys to replace Boone Logan.
- M is for Mystery Team: Nothing says offseason free agent signings like a good mystery team in the mix. Who will it be this offseason?
- N is for Nick Punto: Nick has a World Series ring. Ted Williams and Ernie Banks have zero. Just in case you were wondering.
- O is for Ozzie Guillen: Ozzie is now with the soon-to-be Miami Marlins and every Latin ballplayer is now rumored to be heading his way via free agency or trades. If only I understood a word he was saying in English. Don’t believe me? Check out his Twitter feed during the World Series.
- P is for Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder: How high are these contract numbers going to go and which teams are in the mix? The Yankees can’t sign everyone (in theory). It will be interesting to see where these top sluggers land.
- Q is for Carlos Quentin: With the Chicago White Sox discussing getting younger and cheaper in 2012, could Quentin be the type of player shipped out of town for a handful of prospects? We shall see. I hear the Marlins have money. Hmmmmm.
- R is for Realignment: Moving the Houston Astros to the AL West makes absolutely no sense. Thanks, Bud Selig, for the usual knee-jerk reaction to a problem. I’m a huge fan of a radical realignment based on true geographical rivalries. Forget the AL/NL thing. Screw the traditionalists. Make the DH optional. Create regional television networks. Let’s move this game into the 21st century already!
- S is for Sabermetrics: It’s not going away. It’s not made up of basement-dwelling bloggers. And it is definitely NOT ruining the game of baseball and how it is played on the field. It is a tool used to evaluate and measure the performance of players. Embrace it.
- T is for Twitter: If you’re not using Twitter, I suggest you check it out. It’s not Facebook.
- U is for UZR: Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) is one of the most widely accepted defensive metrics available and yet Brett Gardner, the best defensive player at any position, doesn’t win a Gold Glove. Bitter much? Yes.
- V is for Vernon Wells: Just a reminder, Wells still has three years left on his contract at $21M per year. That is all.
- W is for Wilson Ramos: Kidnapped? Unreal. This is just a horrible situation. I hope this gets resolved quickly and without tragedy. We wonder why agents and players lie to escape other countries to come to America to play baseball.
- X is for X-Factor: No, not that horrible television show on FOX. I’m talking about the intangible “x-factor” agents will be talking about their clients bringing to a team’s clubhouse. Jim Thome has it. Francisco Rodriguez doesn’t have it.
- Y is for Yuniesky Betancourt: According to the Bill James’ 2012 Handbook (and this tweet), Yuniesky has been baseball’s worst defensive shortstop over the last three seasons; costing his teams 46 runs. Keep that tidbit in mind as this Type B free agent lingers on the market.
- Z is for the AriZona Fall League: If top prospects are your thing, then you need to be paying attention to what’s taking place in ‘Zona (see what I did there?). Check it out online and be sure to follow it Twitter, too.
The Cardinals Are Going to the World Series
Monday October 17, 2011
MLB reports – April Whitzman: The Cardinals heading into last night in Milwaukee were one win away from advancing to the World Series. Here is a recap of last night’s NLCS action:
St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers: NLCS Game Six
One ex-Blue Jays pitcher got the win in game number six of the NLCS last night. But it was not the one you would have expected.
Shaun Marcum was on the mound for the Brewers, hoping to bounce back from his previous start. Things unfortunately did not go as planned, as Marcum lasted only one inning. During his short stint, he allowed four earned runs on three hits, a walk, while striking out one. The biggest hit came in the form of a three-run home run, courtesy of David Freese.
Cardinals starter Edwin Jackson, however, did not fare much better. He lasted only two innings himself, also allowing four runs. Jackson actually allowed three home runs, including solo shots to Corey Hart, Rickie Weeks, and Jonathan Lucroy.
Heading into the third, the score was already 5-4 in favor of St. Louis. But the Cardinals weren’t even close to slowing down. They scored another four runs, thanks to an Albert Pujols home run, a Nick Punto sac fly which scored Matt Holliday, and an Allen Craig two-RBI single that scored David Freese and Yadier Molina.
The Brewers tried to overcome the deficit in the following inning, when Yuniesky Betancourt doubled in Jerry Hairston to make the score 9-5 in favour of the Cardinals.
The Cardinals would continue to add to their lead in the following inning. After two consecutive singles to start the inning, costly errors allowed Matt Holliday to score on Yadier Molina’s fielder’s choice. The errors also enabled Adron Chambers‘ sacrifice fly to score David Freese, his third run scored of the game.
Knowing how important the win was for the Brewers, they were not prepared to give up in this one. They scored another run in the bottom of the inning when Ryan Braun grounded out to score Carlos Gomez. The score was then 11-6 for the Cardinals.
But alas, the Brewers offense was a little too late- as the Cardinals went on to add another run. Albert Pujols hit another RBI single to score Daniel Descalso making it a 12-6 game.
Jason Motte came in for the ninth and got a 1-2-3 inning, as the Cardinals defeated the Brewers 12-6. St. Louis won the series 4-2, moving on to the World Series to face the Texas Rangers.
Ex- Blue Jay Marc Rzepczynski ended up earning the win, pitching 2 1/3 innings, more than any other pitcher in this game. He allowed one run on two hits, while walking one and striking out two.
Another Ex- Blue Jay, Octavio Dotel, also pitched in the game. He went 2/3 of an inning without allowing a base runner and struck out one.
After the game, David Freese was named MVP of the NLCS tournament, after going 3-4 with three runs and three RBIs in the game and batting .545 (12 for 22) in the NLCS overall, with three homers, three doubles, nine RBIs and seven runs scored.
Game number one of the World Series between the Texas Rangers and the St. Louis Cardinals commences on Wednesday night in St. Louis, with the National League enjoying home field advantage in this one (thanks to their All-Star game victory this year). If it is anything like the series we have been watching thus far, it is going to be an exciting conclusion to an unpredictable and entertaining 2011 MLB postseason.
Today’s feature was prepared by our Blue Jays & Prospects Writer, April Whitzman. We highly encourage you to leave your comments and feedback at the bottom of the page and share in the discussion with our readers. You can also follow April on Twitter.
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Tony La Russa Manages the Cards to One Win Away From the World Series
Saturday October 15, 2011
MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen: Only one game on the schedule last night- but it was a big one. The Brewers and Cardinals headed into game five in St. Louis, deadlocked at 2-2. With the series set to shift to Milwaukee, this was a big game to take the lead in the NLCS. With two strong pitchers on the mound, this game could have been a pitching duel. It was far from it and the resulting game surprised many. Here is a recap of last night’s NLCS action:
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals: NLCS Game Five
From the title of this article, many readers will take it that the Cardinals won last night. Indeed they did, a strong 7-1 victory over the Brewers to take a 3-2 NLCS series lead. This game came down to key factors in my estimation: the in-game managing by Tony La Russa and the sloppy play of the Brewers. When referring to La Russa, the talk of last night was the call to the bullpen in the 5th inning. With the Cardinals up 4-1, the Brewers were threatening with 2 on and 2 out. Ryan Braun headed to the plate and La Russa ran to the mound. Cardinals starter Jaime Garcia was stellar up to that point, with 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 7 hits, 0 BB and 5 strikeouts. But as noted by last night’s television commentators, Garcia was starting to get into trouble. With one Brewers run already in and the hits starting to pile up, La Russa appeared to be nervous that his starter was losing it. Few managers would take out his starter at that point, but then few managers are Tony La Russa. With his bullpen on fire in this postseason, La Russa was not going to take any chances. Octavio Dotel got the call and proceeded to strike out Ryan Braun to end the threat. From there, Lance Lynn, Marc Rzepczynski and Jason Motte came on to shut out the Brewers on 2 hits and 1 walk. Motte finished up the game for the save with Dotel taking the win.
But that is not the end of the story. Far from it. As much as this game is about the wizardry of La Russa managing his pitching staff (along with trusty pitching coach Dave Duncan at his side), game five was also about the Brewers throwing it away. Literally. To me, Milwaukee was a team intent on giving the game away. Four errors on the night is completely unacceptable, especially for a game of this magnitude. It is not like the team was not hitting, as the Brewers had 9 hits compared to the Cardinals 10. Interestingly enough the Cardinals had 20 LOB, compared to the Brewers 14. But the Cardinals drove runners in when in it counted. Here is my logic in a game that came down to inches. Zack Greinke gave up 5 runs, although only 2 of them were earned. Marco Estrada in the 8th was a complete train-wreck, giving up 2 runs on 1 hit an 2 walks. Estrada completely was not finding the zone and was lucky to escape with only the 2 runs allowed. Take out the Estrada inning and Greinke’s 3 unearned runs, and you are now left with a 2-1 Cardinals lead. Thus the Cardinals victory relied on La Russa’s management, strong bullpen and Brewers lack of execution and poor play. A game of inches.Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
Tigers Stay Alive and NLCS Tied Up: Recap of MLB Playoffs and Notes
Friday October 14, 2011
MLB reports – Jonathan Hacohen: The Rangers had a chance on Thursday to advance to the World Series. The Cardinals were up 2-1 in the NLCS and looking to take a commanding lead. How did they do? Let’s recap Thursday’s MLB playoffs:
Texas Rangers at Detroit Tigers: ALCS Game Five
The battle of the aces. C.J. Wilson and Justin Verlander. This game turned into a high scoring affair rather than a pitching classic. The Tigers pulled out a 7-5 victory to stay alive in the series. Verlander took the win, with 7 1/3 IP, 4 runs allowed, 8 hits, 3 walks and 8 strikeouts. The lone home run given up Verlander was in the 5th inning to none other than… Nelson Cruz. The Rangers slugger hit his 5th home run of the series, a 2-run effort. Phil Coke came in for the rare save, pitching 1 2/3 innings, allowing 1 run. C.J. Wilson took the loss for the Rangers. In 6.0 IP, Wilson allowed a staggering 6 runs, 8 hits, 2 walks and 5 strikeouts. The long ball did Wilson in, as he allowed 3 of them to the Tigers in their home park. Alex Avila hit a solo blast in the 3rd, while Delmon Young had a pair on the day (a solo home run in the 4th and 2-run blast in the 6th). For good measure, Koji Uehara came on in the 7th to give up a solo home run to Ryan Raburn.
The crooked number came for the Tigers in the 6th. Miguel Cabrera hit a ground ball off the third base bag that could have led to a double play, but rather went for a double. Detroit kept the momentum from there and scored four runs in the inning. Detroit actually had a 7-2 lead going into the 8th, but the Rangers were able to chip away and stay within striking distance. Texas now leads the series 3-2 going into game 6 on Saturday. The game will be played at 8:05 PM ET, with Max Scherzer and Derek Holland set to faceoff. The Rangers continue to be one game away from that magical trip back to the World Series.
Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals: NLCS Game Four
The Cardinals held a 2-1 lead in the series with game four to be played at home. Kyle Lohse was on the hill for the home team, Randy Wolf for the Brewers. Turns out that Wolf was exactly what the doctor ordered for the Brewers. The starter pitched a solid 7.0 IP to take the win, giving up only 2 runs on 6 hits, 1 walk and 6 strikeouts. The only runs allowed by Wolf were on solo home runs, to Matt Holliday in the 2nd and Allen Craig in the 3rd. Francisco Rodriguez got the hold in the 8th and closer John Axford with the save in the 9th. Kyle Lohse could not make it out of the 5th, pitching 4 1/3 IP for the loss. Lohse gave up 3 runs on 6 hits, no walks and struck out 3. Mitchell Boggs, Arthur Rhodes, Octavio Dotel and Fernando Salas also pitched in this one. The Brewers recipe for success in this one was simple. Great pitching and grinding out runs at the plate. One could say that the Brewers beat Tony La Russa at his own game. The Brewers did not hit a long ball in this one, but will certainly take out the well-earned victory. With the series tied up 2-2, game five goes tonight at 8:05 PM ET in St. Louis. A great matchup on the mound, as Jamie Garcia and Zack Greinke faceoff.
MLB Notes:
-
With the Theo Epstein soap opera about to conclude, the focus shifts to Baltimore and Boston for their vacant General Manager positions. Boston is looking internally to fill the role, while Baltimore is considering everyone and anyone to lead their team. This is a crucial stage for both teams’ development. Boston needs to maintain its status as a top flight MLB organization, while Baltimore is on the verge of breaking through (with a great deal of talent in their farm system).
-
The sale of the Houston Astros to Crane will apparently be going through. The sale will lead to the Astros moving to the American League, playing in the West division. I will be writing about this subject very soon on the Reports. But at this point I will say that the move is a win-win for the Astros and its fans. The team needs stability and renewed excitement. A move to the AL West should provide just that and more.
-
Another day, another rumor. With the Red Sox in apparent turmoil, Big Papi has come out and indicated that he may not return to Boston. That is his decision and I respect that. But will Boston be asking him back…and at what price? If Papi does leave, look for the Jays, Rays and Yankees to all hold discussions with the big man. The Angels may also be a consideration. But my money is on a return to Beantown.
-
The expansion of the MLB playoffs will happen. It is just a question of when. The latest reports have Major League Baseball adding one more wild card team to each league and a sudden death, one game playoff, to be played by the wild card teams. I do not know yet how I feel about having just a one gamer to decide the wild card winner. But I am definitely in favour of expanding the amount of teams. Personally, I like the idea of each top team getting a full bye into the championship series. But this may be too revolutionary for baseball. The expanded MLB playoffs is likely coming as early as the 2013 season.
-
The World Baseball Classic is coming in the spring of 2013. The qualifying tournament will be played sometime in the fall of 2012. I am a big fan of this tournament and see it as a big step for baseball expansion throughout the world. More details will likely not be available until next year, but I will continue to update everyone as information becomes available.
Jonathan Hacohen is the Lead Baseball Columnist & Editor for MLB reports
Please e-mail us at: MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback. You can follow us on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook . To subscribe to our website and have the daily Reports sent directly to your inbox , click here and follow the link at the top of our homepage.
