Blog Archives
Triple Play Podcast Ep #8 – Bucs And Nats Time In The Around The Horn Feature
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The Triple Play Show will have 5 shows per month. Each show will be about 1 hour.
By The Big Ticket Show ( AKA Triple Play Podcast on http://www.mlbreports.com) Follow @bigticketshow
Guests in this Podcast – MLB Reports Nationals Correspondent David Huzzard of Citizensofnatstown.com ( Follow @bigticketshow and MLB Reports Pirates Correspondent Brad Cuprik
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On a Mother’s day edition of the triple play podcast we heed the advice of our mother’s and turn the lemon of our original guest being unable to join us into the lemonade of Bard Cuprik of mlbreports.com (Check out his latest Roster Tree piece – where he goes through the 6 degrees of separation of a how each pitcher arrived in a Bucs uniform here ) – and David Huzzard of the Citizens of Natstown podcast (and Writer) dissects the pitching and the Nationals start to the 2013 Season. Read the rest of this entry
As Nats Battle Tough Sked – A New ? Arises: Who Will Be The Future 2B: Rendon Or Espinosa?
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Danny Espinosa had best start producing for this talented Washington Nationals club – with the likes of Anthony Rendon looking for a position to overtake. The 25 Year Old has started the campaign at a 3 Slash Line of .176/.222/.556 -even though he has cutdown his SO so far.
During the course of a baseball season there are going to be ups and downs, and for the past week and a half I have written that reality far too much. The Nats started the season with a tough stretch that doesn’t end until June.
Consider for a moment that between April 1 and May 31 the Nats play 33 games against teams that were over .500 in 2012 – and only 22 afterwards. They play more games against team that had winning records the season before in the first two months of the season than they do in the final four.
That is an odd balance. Combine that with the unseemly amount of errors and irregular Bullpen play – and it is a recipe for a slow start, or exactly the start the Nationals are off to.
It was the effort by the Nationals in a while – and they ended up losing a one run game. During the course of the season those are the types of games that even out. It is unusual for a team, good or bad, to have a record much above or below .500 in one run games. Read the rest of this entry
Dan Haren Has Not Pitched Well For The Nationals!
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Dan Haren signed a 1 YR/ $13 Million Contract over the winter with the Washington Nationals. He was supposed to be a competent #5 Starter that would give the Nats an edge versus opponents #5 Starters. The 32 Year Old is 1 – 2 with a 8.10 ERA and 2.03 WHIP so far – spanning 3 Games Started and 13.1 Innings Pitched.
By David Huzzard (Nationals Correspondent via Citizens of Natstown.com – view website here): Follow @davidhuzzard
Dan Haren has not pitched well for the Nationals. There have been a multitude of issues, but the main and most important one is he has been getting hit hard. His line drive rate is up to 25.9% from his career average of 19.9% – and his ground ball rate is down to 25.9% from his career average of 43.0%.
Avoiding line drives and inducing ground balls is good for a pitcher. Most line drives are hits -while most ground balls are not.
Giving up more line drives and less ground balls is never good and it has led to Haren having a .420 BABIP so far on the season compared to his career average of .292, and this doesn’t include the five homeruns he has given up, but even if nothing else changes a 3.38 HR/9 is unsustainable.
MLB Talk on the Haren Signing at the Winter Meetings 2012:
Game 1 Recap Of The Nats Big Opening Day Win – A Glimpse Of Things To Come
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Just as impressive as Harper 2 HRs yesterdayn- was Strasburg’s being unleashed on the world for a full season. His start featured an 80 pitch performance over 7 shutout IP. Strasburg didn’t even have his best command – falling behind 1-0 on 13 of the 23 batters he faced. He finished the day with only three Strikeouts, but no walks and giving up only 3 hits.
By David Huzzard (Nationals Correspondent via Citizens of Natstown.com – view website here): Follow @davidhuzzard
Seeing Stephen Strasburg picked to win the Cy Young should come as no surprise to anyone. He did finish 2012 tied with Gio Gonzalez for the best FIP in the majors at 2.82 – and led all starters with a staggering 11.13 K/9. There are arguments that can be made that when Stephen Strasburg is firing on all cylinders - he is the best pitcher in the NL and among the best on the planet.
The same argument cannot be made for Bryce Harper as an Outfielder. Based on stats last year, he finished seventh in the NL in fWAR and tied for eighth in wOBA with Jay Bruce and Garrett Jones.
No one is picking Jay Bruce or Garrett Jones for their MVP. In all of the NL Bryce Harper‘s .352 wOBA ranked sixteenth.
Bryce Harper 2 HR Performance On Opening Day – MLB Reports does not own anything from this video:
What Will It Take For Bryce Harper To Be An NL MVP This Year?
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Just how far can Bryce Harper improve during his 2nd season? If he can improve by about 15% – might we see a 30 HR/30 SB year, with around 120 Runs Scored and 80 Extra Base Hits? With the Nationals being the consensus favorite in the National League amongst experts, this would definitely put him in the NL MVP discussion. Seasons of improvement between the age of 19 and 20 for MLB Players of the past has proved to show this could happen. Harper will look to avoid the similar fates of the last 5 NL Rookie Of The Year Awards with a 2nd year regression.
By David Huzzard (Nationals Correspondent via Citizens of Natstown.com – view website here): Follow @davidhuzzard
A good part of analysis is knowing when numbers are useless. I was going to look back at the last 5 NL Rookies of the Year – and inform you of their average decrease in OPS, but two of the five are Geovany Soto and Chris Coghlan. On top of that Posey got injured his second full season after only 45 games and Ryan Braun hit like a madman in his rookie season with an OPS of 1.004. It did drop from that to .888, but seriously he OPS’d 1.004 in his rookie season.
The only one of the last five position player rookies of the year to not suffer any drop was Hanley Ramirez who saw his OPS rise from .833 in 2006 to .948 in 2007. If we go back one more season to the 2005 rookie of the year, Ryan Howard, his OPS rose from .924 in 2005 to 1.084 in 2006 when he won the MVP (Pujols had a 1.102 OPS that season, the third highest of his career and tops in the NL, but the vote went to Howard).
Bryce Harper Steals Home!
Remember When: An A To Z On How Far The Nats Have Come In Washington
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Fromer #1 Nats pitcher Livan Hernandez leads the 2005-2012 version of the franchise in Wins and Innings Pitched. The 2005 team started out competing for the NL East with an 81-81 record before falling down the stetch. The next 5 years in wins went (71, 73, 59, 59 and 69) respectively. After 80 wins in 2011 – they set a franchise win mark in 2012 at 98 victories. They are one of the favorites to win the World Series in 2013. Only the Nationals and Mariners teams have never appeared in the World Series as an organization. Hernandez in his prime might be the #5 starter on the 2013 club.
By David Huzzard (Nationals Correspondent via Citizens of Natstown.com – view website here): Follow @davidhuzzard
Remember when Buster Olney went on Baseball Tonight and predicted the 2007 Nationals would just be historically bad, but they would be lucky if they could win 42 games. Or remember when columns like this one from Jeff Passan were the norm with catchy little puns like, “National Disaster.” At times it is hard to even remember the bi-gone days when Jason Simontacchi, Mike Bacsik, and Micah Bowie were key figures in the Nats rotation.
What makes it even harder to hold on to those memories of the bad Nats are columns like this about how the Nats could be historically good. In the terms of history five years is nothing. The build up of World War I started with the Bosnian Crisis in 1908 and didn’t officially start until Archduke Franz Ferdinand was assassinated in 1914. The build up to historic events is a mention in a paragraph on the actual history itself. Those five years from 2007 until 2013 are throw away lines in the book that will be written if the Nats can manage to be historically good.
Wil Nieves used to have the Nationals Defining Moment…. Who?
Bryce Harper – The Nats LF
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Bryce Harper won the NL Rookie Of The Year, made an ALL-Star Appearance – and even clubbed his 1st Post season HR in 2012. With a full season to play in 2013 – how high might his numbers go?
By David Huzzard (Nationals Correspondent via Citizens of Natstown.com – view website here): Follow @davidhuzzard
With the acquisition of Denard Span to play Center Field and bat Leadoff, a new defensive home had to be found for Harper. In 2012, advanced stats didn’t just rate Harper as a good defensive Center Fielder he was rated as a great one.
The Span move makes the Nats better in two positions of weakness and it also allows Harper to move to a more offensive position and focus on that aspect of his game. Left field is the second least important defensive position according to the defensive matrix, and often times it is the home of some of the games best sluggers.
For a quick comparison the average MLB Center Fielder hit for a 3 Slash Line of.265/.330/.418 in 2012 – and the average Left Fielder .261/.327/.431. While Left Field is traditionally a more offensive position current Left Fielders only managed a .009 OPS advantage over their CF brethren in 2012.
This doesn’t nor should it change the perception of Left Field as the less important defensive position of the higher offensive position. All it means is that there aren’t a lot of good Left Fielders right now. In WAR there are built-in bonuses for playing different positions, a good offensive player at an up the middle position will be rated higher than a good offensive player at a corner position, because an up the middle player that can hit is more valuable.
Bryce Harper Highlights as a 16 Year old hitting bombs and Tropicana Field 2009:
Ross Detwiler And 1st Pitch Strikes
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Detwiler was 10-8 – with a 3.40 ERA during his 27 Games Started in 2012.
By David Huzzard (Nationals Correspondent via Citizens of Natstown.com – view website here): Follow @davidhuzzard
After making his Spring Training debut yesterday Ross Detwiler was asked what he wanted to improve upon in 2013 and his answer was first pitch strikes. Detwiler said this, but he isn’t a non-strike thrower. He is around league average in that category with 62% first pitch strikes compared to a league average of 60% and an overall Strike Percentage of 64% compared to a league average of 63%. As a strike thrower Detwiler is right around league average, if he has a flaw – it is that he doesn’t strike many batters out.
For his career Detwiler strikes out 14.4% of the batters he faces – and has walked 8.3%. Both of those numbers improved in 2012 – as his Strikeout Percentage rose to 15.3% and Walk Percentage fell to 7.6%, but Detwiler would like to improve that even further and getting ahead of hitters is one easy way to do that. Detwiler was around league average in most control categories, but he is a below average strikeout pitcher. He is an above average ground ball pitcher with 50.8% ground ball rate in 2012. This number is up from his overall career average and the reason for that is Detwiler has started to rely on his sinker.
Rob Dibble interviews Ross Detwiler from a few years back:
